Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[El Topo]

We've got lucky, the deal itself was shit

We'd traded our own later picks to GWS. In a deep draft and needing to replace players in bulk, the deal was always clever business.

The Hawthorn trade wouldn't be so misunderstood if everything didn't happen at the same time on the trade deadline.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Nah mate, you don't trade a premium pick for picks much later in the draft.

We've got lucky, this will be proven or not in a couple of seasons when you can look back on a draft and really see how it pans out

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Nah mate, you don't trade a premium pick for picks much later in the draft.

We've got lucky, this will be proven or not in a couple of seasons when you can look back on a draft and really see how it pans out

but

"don't do your nuts on the G1 in town, when you've got a moral in the 7th at Bendigo"

 

[Blue Doormat]

Am I the only one that thinks we should consider keeping Gibbs and Kruezer in 2018and maybe beyond?
If we are to pick up a free agent wouldn't that cancel out losing Kruez? (On top of robbing the club of a heart and soul player coming into some career best form) and would the crows/port offer up anything close to what would be required to replace Gibbs (when from what I saw on the weekend, the bloke loves Carlton)
As players they have been great servants through some of the darkest periods of our history. As a club Carlton have not put any type of team around them for them to shine to their full potential.
Fast forward to the Sunday just gone. We all of a sudden have some very promising youth coming through. It seems like all three of Gibbs, Kruez and Murph are thriving with this. The dogs have bob Murphy, Matty Boyd and Dale Morris. Who will the blues have if we trade or let these blokes go?

 

[ParapMarkets]

Nah mate, you don't trade a premium pick for picks much later in the draft.

We've got lucky, this will be proven or not in a couple of seasons when you can look back on a draft and really see how it pans out

A pick in the mid 30's isn't really all that premium. Wait and see how far back that pick gets pushed back after fa and academy bidding, could easily end up a pick beyond 40. We got pick 47, 59, 61, 65 a year earlier.

The fact that it was a deep draft wasn't luck, that's why we did the trade. Not a shit trade at all.

Edit. We didn't get pick 65 in that trade.

 

[BlueWoof_#39]

Am I the only one that thinks we should consider keeping Gibbs and Kruezer in 2018and maybe beyond?
If we are to pick up a free agent wouldn't that cancel out losing Kruez? (On top of robbing the club of a heart and soul player coming into some career best form) and would the crows/port offer up anything close to what would be required to replace Gibbs (when from what I saw on the weekend, the bloke loves Carlton)
As players they have been great servants through some of the darkest periods of our history. As a club Carlton have not put any type of team around them for them to shine to their full potential.
Fast forward to the Sunday just gone. We all of a sudden have some very promising youth coming through. It seems like all three of Gibbs, Kruez and Murph are thriving with this. The dogs have bob Murphy, Matty Boyd and Dale Morris. Who will the blues have if we trade or let these blokes go?

I agree with you.

I still would be more inclined to trade Gibbs if we get an offer greater than a 1st rounder. But your right we should look to the dogs, even the saints for some reassurance that we can keep some older blokes.

With Gibbs, look at matty Boyd, Montagna even James Kelly. Absolutely no reason why Gibbs can't get play til 34-35 if moved to a half back flank eventually.

With the new ruck rules, you probably want a more mobile ruckman and Kreuzer is just that. I'd be tempted with a first round pick for him but you can tell he genuinely plays for the jumper and I think plenty of fans will be disgruntled if he leaves. This season is the best start to a year he has had that I can remember.

I am more inclined to keep them but it's been a week by week proposition. We are lucky we are in the position that if kreuzer has a good year, we either lose him for decent FA compensation or re-contract him for another couple of years. With Gibbs, hopefully we still play relative hardball so we will either receive 1st round draft pick and more, or keep him for another 2 years. Either outcome I don't think we can really lose, we either keep 2 great servants to the club or should be well compensated if they leave.


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[ParapMarkets]

I agree with you.

I still would be more inclined to trade Gibbs if we get an offer greater than a 1st rounder. But your right we should look to the dogs, even the saints for some reassurance that we can keep some older blokes.

With Gibbs, look at matty Boyd, Montagna even James Kelly. Absolutely no reason why Gibbs can't get play til 34-35 if moved to a half back flank eventually.

With the new ruck rules, you probably want a more mobile ruckman and Kreuzer is just that. I'd be tempted with a first round pick for him but you can tell he genuinely plays for the jumper and I think plenty of fans will be disgruntled if he leaves. This season is the best start to a year he has had that I can remember.

I am more inclined to keep them but it's been a week by week proposition. We are lucky we are in the position that if kreuzer has a good year, we either lose him for decent FA compensation or re-contract him for another couple of years. With Gibbs, hopefully we still play relative hardball so we will either receive 1st round draft pick and more, or keep him for another 2 years. Either outcome I don't think we can really lose, we either keep 2 great servants to the club or should be well compensated if they leave.


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My view on Gibbs is that I would prefer to keep him. Smart footballer, very durable and I think he has many years left in him. My biggest problem with losing him to Adelaide is that they are going to have a very mediocre pick again, very low possibility of getting an a-grade player at that sort of pick.

If however, we look like getting Hopper then that changes things because SOS won't want to lose or severely downgrade a top 5 pick and there is not much else we have to trade that could get us anywhere near the value of Hopper.

 

[ShanDog]

Nah mate, you don't trade a premium pick for picks much later in the draft.

We've got lucky, this will be proven or not in a couple of seasons when you can look back on a draft and really see how it pans out

Re what it's worth, the consensus was that the talent pool in last year's draft was pretty good across the board (IIRC). We needed plenty of picks to replace the players we wanted off the list. Was a win/win.

 

[Azul]

The proof will be in this year's draft when we have only one pick in the top 40 and still another 10 players to turn over.

 

[choo]

This year we must trade Gibbs, Casboult and perhapsKreuzer.
We need to get a first round for Gibbs. This year you'd take a third round as well. We need a second round for Casboult.
Ideally we have our first round, Adelaide's first round, somebody's second round, Adelaide's third round and our own third round. I'm guessing Kreuzer would get us a second round.
We must keep our pick in the first round. I'd love Hopper plus a pick for Adelaide's first.
We need to then recruit a ruck to replace Kreuzer. Longer?

 

[DangerousD]

Are you suggesting that Freo would match, but then not agree to a trade?

At that point, he has a contract with Freo.

Wait, what, surely that can't be true. I'm even going to put it out there that it's wrong (i haven't checked the rules). If Freo match and a trade can't be reached, he is free to go to the draft or the PSD. A contract can not be entered to against someones will.

 

[DangerousD]

100%

He is out of contract so is free to go to either the ND or PSD

 

[DangerousD]

Or we can continue to bring in young players through the draft and trading instead of instead of Fyfe, who IMO, is at very long odds to leave Fremantle. Just as I think Martin is at very long odds to leave Richmond. I'm still of he opinion its the wrong time in our rebuild to get that elite FA.

Just clearing something up. You do know that by taking an elite FA, we are still using all our picks and going to the draft don't you?

 

[DangerousD]

The proof will be in this year's draft when we have only one pick in the top 40 and still another 10 players to turn over.

For this reason, we will be trading/letting leave one of Cruz or Gibbs, possibly trading a future pic/s and drafting a DFA who is better than who is getting pushed out.

 

[DangerousD]

We need a second round for Casboult.

I'd love Hopper plus a pick for Adelaide's first.

It's hard to pick up if you are being sarcastic or not but in what world is a club offering a second round pick for Cas who is a FA at seasons end and on enough money to trigger a band 2 or 3 compo?

Adelaide's first pick will be 12-18, if its towards the end of that range GWS will be pushing for more, not giving a pick back.

 

[DangerousD]

At what point do we worry about SOS's licking for goal? He is 2:6 at the moment and without knowing the stats he was not that great last season from his limited shots. His technique looks solid to an untrained eye so is it a confidence thing, is he trying shots outside his skill level?

 

[Navara79]

At what point do we worry about SOS's licking for goal? He is 2:6 at the moment and without knowing the stats he was not that great last season from his limited shots. His technique looks solid to an untrained eye so is it a confidence thing, is he trying shots outside his skill level?

He has had a couple of shots from 45 out on the boundary and a couple from over 50 out. If he starts missing them from 30 out directly in front, then we can say he has an issue.

 

[zeeCFC]

At what point do we worry about SOS's licking for goal? He is 2:6 at the moment and without knowing the stats he was not that great last season from his limited shots. His technique looks solid to an untrained eye so is it a confidence thing, is he trying shots outside his skill level?

What Navara said. Missed about three of those to the near side from the same spot over 3 games.

His pressure, leading and technique are top notch IMO. Once he's a bit more powerful we'll start to see him dominate.

 

[CarltonFan]

Am I the only one that thinks we should consider keeping Gibbs and Kruezer in 2018and maybe beyond?
If we are to pick up a free agent wouldn't that cancel out losing Kruez? (On top of robbing the club of a heart and soul player coming into some career best form) and would the crows/port offer up anything close to what would be required to replace Gibbs (when from what I saw on the weekend, the bloke loves Carlton)
As players they have been great servants through some of the darkest periods of our history. As a club Carlton have not put any type of team around them for them to shine to their full potential.
Fast forward to the Sunday just gone. We all of a sudden have some very promising youth coming through. It seems like all three of Gibbs, Kruez and Murph are thriving with this. The dogs have bob Murphy, Matty Boyd and Dale Morris. Who will the blues have if we trade or let these blokes go?

The doggies lost possibly their 2 best players; Griffen and Ward to accelerate getting picks in and turning over their list.

We must not be afraid of trading Gibbs as our list is still in need of a further significant turnover and we need to do so with multiple picks in the 1st round not the 3rd round.

Much like Melbourne have attracted Lewis through Free Agency, in 3 years time when we are ready for a tilt we could always look at where our major gaps are and do something similar if experience is what we need.

But right now, another 3 picks in the top 20 is the biggest thing we need and the obvious path to get there is Gibbs. If you have another suggestion to get there I certainly wouldn't be against it hearing it out as it's nothing personal against Gibbs.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

The doggies lost possibly their 2 best players; Griffen and Ward to accelerate getting picks in and turning over their list.

We must not be afraid of trading Gibbs as our list is still in need of a further significant turnover and we need to do so with multiple picks in the 1st round not the 3rd round.

Much like Melbourne have attracted Lewis through Free Agency, in 3 years time when we are ready for a tilt we could always look at where our major gaps are and do something similar if experience is what we need.

But right now, another 3 picks in the top 20 is the biggest thing we need and the obvious path to get there is Gibbs. If you have another suggestion to get there I certainly wouldn't be against it hearing it out as it's nothing personal against Gibbs.

Doggies gave up Lake too.
If Gibbs and Kreuzer wish to pursue success with other clubs, I cannot begrudge that. We should simply make the most of it.

 

[DangerousD]

Taken from AFL.com.au

Carlton's out of contract players come seasons end. If anyone was under any doubts that we wouldn't have another big clean out then this list may change your mind.

Dennis Armfield (free agent)
Blaine Boekhorst
Dylan Buckley
Levi Casboult (free agent)
Charlie Curnow
Ed Curnow
Kristian Jaksch
Liam Jones
Matthew Kreuzer (free agent)
Jed Lamb
Harry McKay
Andrew Phillips
Sam Rowe
Kade Simpson (free agent)
Liam Sumner
Dale Thomas (option for 2018)
Simon White (free agent)
Matthew Wright

 

[Smegger]

At what point do we worry about SOS's licking for goal? He is 2:6 at the moment and without knowing the stats he was not that great last season from his limited shots. His technique looks solid to an untrained eye so is it a confidence thing, is he trying shots outside his skill level?

It may be a case of Jack's work rate increasing, then fatigued when it comes to set shots. He has a sound technique which he won't lose so as his fitness levels increase, so will his accuracy. A bit like soldiers at a firing range. First off no problem, then get taken for a long, hard run and try again, not so good. It takes time. He'll be slotting quite a few when things come together.

 

[FairKouta]

Sos will be Top 5 players in our list by 2020.
This is a Fact

 

[Mr_Plow]

Sos will be Top 5 players in our list by 2020.
This is a Fact

Better than Cripps, Weitering, SPS, Hopper and Shiel?

Would be amazed.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Nah mate, you don't trade a premium pick for picks much later in the draft.

We've got lucky, this will be proven or not in a couple of seasons when you can look back on a draft and really see how it pans out

If GWS win the flag (which is a fair chance of happening) we have traded pick 36 which is hardly a premium pick.

Silvagni assessed that 2016 was a deep draft and that he would be able to find some late gold. Fair to say that he has already. One more reason to suggest that we are in good hands.