Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[SkyhorseTamer]

I find it weird when people acknowledge that KF's take a long time to develop and then make judgments on Weiters that he will be not much more than a serviceable CHF after not even 7 full games in that position. He's shown a lot, especially compared to other KF's at the same stage.

Forcing discussion for the sake of it. This stuff needs more time to develop

 

[ParapMarkets]

I dont want us to reach for a KPF but if it comes to our pick and we cant split a mid or a KPF, I say go for the KPF.

If we're not going that way, we need to get into Lynch, Cameron and Pattons ear and promise them... whatever they want come next contract time.

It's going to be very interesting to see how the draft takes shape. It's looking like "best available" could very well be a KF and I don't think SOS will shy away from taking one (especially if he can secure Hopper).

I personally hope there is a gun mid at our selection, there may be many mids around but game changing mids are not as easy to find as people make out.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Well lets say we need to make 7 changes to our senior list, do you really think he offers less than any of these players;
Armfield, Boekhorst, Buckley, Jones, Jacksh, Lamb and Palmer?

Harsh on Lamb. I would add Gorringe.
We need to make more changes, 12 or so, Thomas included, I don't think we can do them all this year.
Also might have to factor in losing a Gibbs (trade), a Kreuzer or Casboult (FA), or perhaps Simpson not going on.

Clubs tend to take up to 6 players in the draft. We took 5 then 6 the last 2 years.
Depends how many DFAs etc, SOS rates / gets, players traded in, as to the number we delist this year. Maybe a rookie upgrade or 2.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Eight spots to fill, IMO, some of the above won't make it and, perhaps, LeBois may.

Rookies aren't smashing it just yet.
We can retain Le Bois as a second year rookie. Alex Silvagni too.
Sheehan we may have to upgrade or delist?
Have to make a call on JGM and Gallucci.
We could retain Korcheck for a third year as an International or call it this year.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

just a couple of ...
3) I assume that levi is unrestricted and kreuze restricted? salary cap is not an issue to us so if we want either or both to stay we can offer a lesser amount (not ridiculously less) and you would inagine that they would be happy to stay. the real list management decision comes in whether sos wants to match the length of the offers they might receive.

Both unrestricted.

 

[rog1995]

Not yet they wont. Just because the cap increases, doesn't mean they earn more money (unless they are contracted for a percentage of the salary cap; which going by the number of player holding off on signing contracts this year, doesnt sound like is the case). They're all on the amounts they negotiated when they signed their current contracts.

Meaning a lot of clubs are going to have a lot of cash to splash around at the end of the year.

We'll be using ours to frontload and extend the contracts of SPS, Curnow, McKay and others.



First year players salary is around 100k with match day payments pushing it up per game played. Marquee players (of which there would be around 6-8 at each club) would be on 400-700k. Some as high as a million for one player.

For us to get band one compensation for MK or LC they would need to attract offers in the vicinity of the top 5 percent of earners in the comp. In 2014 that would have meant a contract of around 600k per year. Its probably blown out to around 750k per year this year. 800k would definitely attract band 1 but even if MK pulls in a blinder I cant see him attracting an offer in that vicinity (even considering rucks come at a premium, and the big hole everyone will have in the salary cap thanks to the 20 percent increase).

Band 1 is a first round pick immediately after our own pick. So if we finish 3rd last, we get picks 3 and 4.

More likely is MK will attract band 2 compensation (End of first round or Pick 19) if he chooses to leave.

That would be an offer of around 500-600k, likely for 3 years (the extra year to convince him to accept, for peace of mind if he gets injured).

If he left and we only got Band 3 Id be wanting to know why we didnt table an offer just as good (maybe we did, but he just choose to leave anyway, which he can do as an unrestricted F/A)



If both players choose to leave for better offers elsewhere, then we wouldnt not be set back in our rebuild. We would get two draft picks in the top 20 to help with the rebuild (to go along with our own 1st rounder, and likely Adelaides as well).

The rebuild isnt even half way there (we are 29 games and 2 drafts into a 66 game + 4 draft rebuild); it doesnt officially 'finish' till the end of 2018. From there, we'll have a list of talented kids aged 24 and younger. Then comes at least one (and probably two) extra years of the blokes playing together and gelling before we push into the top 8 (around the 2020 season). You dont win flags with talented kids with zero experience. They need around 50+ games into them before they start to show what they can do.

2020 - thats when the window opens.

We're playing Weitering up forward as a precaution should Casboult leave. Kruzeer leaving forces us to play Phillips for a year or two while we draft in a young talented project ruck or two (which we need to do anyway seeing as Kruezer is 28 in 3 days and wont be of much use to us in 2020-2025 in any event). We could scrape by with Weitering playing CHF and McKay in theseiors next year, and Phillips rucking till we find someone better (before 2020).

As a positive we would have 4 picks in the top 20 if Levi and Kruezer keep up their current form and then walk out on us, and we trade Gibbs.

If we lose Kreuzer, Gibbs and Casboult. We will seriously struggle to win a game next year. Hardly an enticing club to attract quality players.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Malfice is right about our KPF stocks in my opinion.

There are currently only two who are both known quantities and AFL quality - Weitering and Levi. CC is not a KPF, nor is Jack. CC maybe in the future, I'll accept that, but I think that's almost a waste. But lets call it 2.5 for the sake of argument.

After that there's McKay and Kerr. McKay is promising and I think we can say a better than even chance of 'making it'. Kerr is completely speculative imo.

If McKay comes on, he, Weitering and Levi will probably be in the same side, along with Charlie. It would be crazy to think we're set with just Kerr in the reserves.

Correct me if I am wrong, the point Malifice was trying to make was that because McKay is a 'Question Mark' and Kerr is statistically unlikely to make it due to the position he was drafted at, we should draft another key tall forward or trade one in?
I think we need class midfielders first, second and third, a ruck fourth, an extra running back fifth and then certainly look at KPF and KPD. Whether best available talent matches up that way at our draft picks, etc. is another question.
If Sam Reid (Sydney) was available to us (FA) I would absolutely take him as the key forward while McKay develops.

FWIW, I think McKay is developing well and showing an appetite for hard running on the field, and Kerr is tracking as better than expected. I think Kerr will end up more high half forward with his long kicking than KPF.

On the logic of draft position, Jaksch and Sumner were statistically more likely to make it so we should persist?

I think Weitering and Casboult are doing well as our two KPFs this year and down the track I think our KPFs will be Weitering and McKay. Who plays around them? Jack, Wright (for a couple more years), Pickett, there are a couple more spots IMO for another flanker type (with Charlie to push up the field) and another forward pocket crumber pressure forward type (if it is not the resting midfielder or Murphy when we have more midfield depth and class). I've already said Pickett (after another pre-season), perhaps Kerr, Lamb, Gallucci or Le Bois will surprise from the outer reaches of the draft ... or Sumner ...

I would not be prioritising a KPF this year in drafting or trading (Sam Reid as a FA in is the exception).

Maybe just maybe Ben Silvagni will be a handy pick up ...

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Yet Midfielders are far easier to obtain as free agents than key forwards, and take less time to develop with many capable of playing well from day one, while KPF's require around 3 years before they start delivering (meaning any KPF we wanted to be up and firing in 2020-2025 would need to be drafted now).

Over the next three years we need (drafted or free agents):

1 x Ruckman
1 x KPF
6 x Mids.

And in order:
1. Mids
2. Ruck
3. KPF

I would get the running defender before the KPF, and a KPD after.

 

[Wickzki]

If we get a key forward in the draft I'm going to put my money on it being Balta. The others are either academy-bound (Brisbane, GWS) or KPF-ruck hybrids like McKay.

---

Knightmare

5. Noah Balta (VIC)
Position: Key forward
Height, weight: 193cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Projected draft range: First to second round
Profile: Freakishly athletic key forward, who breaks the lines like a small or medium size running specialist. He possesses rare speed, leaping ability and some Lance "Buddy" Franklin-like traits. Balta kicked 18 goals from his eight TAC Cup games and with continued improvement has the scope to be as good as anyone in the 2017 draft class.

---

Seemingly a perfect fit given how versatile SOS is building this team.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If we lose Kreuzer, Gibbs and Casboult. We will seriously struggle to win a game next year. Hardly an enticing club to attract quality players.

This is true but we are probably already only a couple of injuries away from it ATM.

I also think we could be getting ahead of ourselves thinking we don't need to trade older players out to get back into the draft. As it stand now we go to the draft with picks 6, 42, 60..... we stuff up pick six and our rebuild stagnates if we nail it then there is every chance we only bring one best 22 player who will be there by 2020 knowing we have to replace 6-8 players. Again we trade Just Gibbs then as it stands we would get pick 18 which is probably a 50/50 chance of finding a player. We had a very similar start last season before turning into the worst side in the league in the second half. If history repeats then I think we have a huge clean out and all Of Casboult, Kruez and Gibbs should be traded or let go for the right price.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

And I disagree.

I would look to take a KPF (CHF type) over a mid with our 1st rounder this year, assuming everything else being equal (there wasnt a stand out mid left on the board).

I disagree with you.
If, hypothetically, at our first round pick this year we rate the midfielder and the forward available equally, I would go with the midfielder.

 

[HARKER]

And in order:
1. Mids
2. Ruck
3. KPF

I would get the running defender before the KPF, and a KPD after.

That makes for common sense except if you have the opportunity to get 'the' KPF and not just 'a' KPF. Big difference.
There are only a couple of FF's that really make 'the' difference and one of them is the one you'd target.
If we do have a viable target in sight, we may not be drafting one that will take years of development, unless of course he's 'too good to refuse'

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I'm not sure you are grasping what Malfice has been explaining quite well for the last few pages.

If Malifice has made several posts then either is not explaining it that well or is responding to (quite a few posters) who do not agree. Please don't say we don't grasp what Malifice is saying if we disagree.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

That makes for common sense except if you have the opportunity to get 'the' KPF and not just 'a' KPF. Big difference.
There are only a couple of FF's that really make 'the' difference and one of them is the one you'd target.
If we do have a viable target in sight, we may not be drafting one that will take years of development, unless of course he's 'too good to refuse'

The recent example was Cripps. IIRC, Rogers thought McCarthy was good at this pick too and went for Cripps.
It is important we can get the ball to the forwards and pressure the opposition to help out our defenders. Allthings being equal, IMO, it's mids mids mids.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

And I disagree.

I would look to take a KPF (CHF type) over a mid with our 1st rounder this year, assuming everything else being equal (there wasnt a stand out mid left on the board).

From there I would draft mids with the rest, plus more Mids with all of 2018's picks (plus F/S BSOS), then more mids in 2019 (plus throw 1 million plus at Dylan Sheil, who'll be a free agent). Id also try and smoke out a ruckman as a F/A over those 3 years.

Our midfield in 2020 then consists of Cripps, SPS, [Pick 17 Gibbs pick], [2018 1st rounder], [F/A Ruckman.], Shiel, Cuningham.
Our forward line consists of McKay, [2017 1st rounder CHF], BSOS, JSOS, Pickett and Curnow. Our backline is Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Mcreadie, Docherty, Williamson.

Int from (the best of): Byrne, Cunningham, Fisher, [Pick 19 Kruezer compo pick], [2019 1st rounder], [2019 second rounder], [2017 3rd rounder] [2019 third rounder] and Smedts if he's pulled his finger out.

That midfield isn't good enough. It's definitely the area we're lacking in most and imo it must be addressed.

If you have an absolute gun midfield, you're forwards reap the rewards. There's no point having gun forwards if the delivery isn't up to it.

Our 2018 first pick(s) may have to go towards picking up Ben.

Look at GC, Lynch and Wright but still struggle big time because they have a weak midfield. Look at the Crowbots, they have the best forward line in the comp and all it takes is for their best mid to be tagged out and they fall apart.

We really need 2 top 10 picks this year, possibly 3 top 15.

Trade Gibbs to Crows for their 1st and 2nd. Surely they'll feel really close and an experienced mid like Gibbs should be seen as the final piece to the puzzle for them. Get pick 11-16 + 35ish

Trade next year's first for another top 10 pick this year.

Keep our top 10 pick.

Spend them all on best mids available.

Cripps and SPS are the genuine elite or potential elite mids we have. All the others are either unknowns or too old.

 

[1981]

Impossible to predict what happens off season though in saying that you'd bet your booties SOS will want to trade back into the second round if not higher, um that's that second round pick Jon (I struggle at RESEARCH) Ralph thinks we have but we don't have

 

[1981]

That midfield isn't good enough. It's definitely the area we're lacking in most and imo it must be addressed.

If you have an absolute gun midfield, you're forwards reap the rewards. There's no point having gun forwards if the delivery isn't up to it.

Our 2018 first pick(s) may have to go towards picking up Ben.

Look at GC, Lynch and Wright but still struggle big time because they have a weak midfield. Look at the Crowbots, they have the best forward line in the comp and all it takes is for their best mid to be tagged out and they fall apart.

We really need 2 top 10 picks this year, possibly 3 top 15.

Trade Gibbs to Crows for their 1st and 2nd. Surely they'll feel really close and an experienced mid like Gibbs should be seen as the final piece to the puzzle for them. Get pick 11-16 + 35ish

Trade next year's first for another top 10 pick this year.

Keep our top 10 pick.

Spend them all on best mids available.

Cripps and SPS are the genuine elite or potential elite mids we have. All the others are either unknowns or too old.

I'm open to trading 2018 first IF we feel Ben will be a star and therefore getting him without using a first is possible.

RE Gibbs, you deal IF what is offered is worth it.

But here's the rub, didn't you all notice how hard Gibbs attacked the contest last week? I've never seen him play with such ferocity and anger. He was virtually looking for punch ons early. Now that could be due to anything but possibly he has decided within himself that a. This side is seriously going places and b. I therefore want to stay LT now as I believe I can be a premiership player at CFC

 

[Iamcarlton]

If we lose Kreuzer, Gibbs and Casboult. We will seriously struggle to win a game next year. Hardly an enticing club to attract quality players.

Thats the thing weve been losing qualty players for whatever reason for years . If we want to be a destination club again players that play well need to be rewarded not traded .
If the go home factor takes Gibbs then so be it and leave it at that we must hold onto Kruz and Cas if this happens even if it means paying overs . Destination club means more quality from other clubs coming in than going out . Culture of reward for effort is much more important than a second round pick for Kruezer or Casboult .

 

[Azul]

In his first 13 games Kennedy had kicked 7 goals. Hardly a way to say someone isn't a forward

I did say 'prematurely'.

If I were backing natural forward instincts, Patrick Kerr stands out for me. Even if he's only a long shot to make it.

Maybe Charlie has the potential to become a mobile tall like Jack Gunston but I wouldn't be at all disappointed if he ended up a Milham Hanna. I'm just not sure he's a 50 goal a year type.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

That midfield isn't good enough. It's definitely the area we're lacking in most and imo it must be addressed.

If you have an absolute gun midfield, you're forwards reap the rewards. There's no point having gun forwards if the delivery isn't up to it.

Our 2018 first pick(s) may have to go towards picking up Ben.

Look at GC, Lynch and Wright but still struggle big time because they have a weak midfield. Look at the Crowbots, they have the best forward line in the comp and all it takes is for their best mid to be tagged out and they fall apart.

We really need 2 top 10 picks this year, possibly 3 top 15.

Trade Gibbs to Crows for their 1st and 2nd. Surely they'll feel really close and an experienced mid like Gibbs should be seen as the final piece to the puzzle for them. Get pick 11-16 + 35ish

Trade next year's first for another top 10 pick this year.

Keep our top 10 pick.

Spend them all on best mids available.

Cripps and SPS are the genuine elite or potential elite mids we have. All the others are either unknowns or too old.

I agree with what you say to an extent but you are picking and choosing abit. Saying that Adelaide lost because their best midfielder was tagged is ridiculous. You could also say that Adelaide lost because they had a gun fullback that smashed Tex so they are more important. You could also say if it wasn't for Wright and Lynch then Gold Coast would be bottom of the ladder.

 

[Tushay]

If we get a key forward in the draft I'm going to put my money on it being Balta. The others are either academy-bound (Brisbane, GWS) or KPF-ruck hybrids like McKay.

---

Knightmare

5. Noah Balta (VIC)
Position: Key forward
Height, weight: 193cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Projected draft range: First to second round
Profile: Freakishly athletic key forward, who breaks the lines like a small or medium size running specialist. He possesses rare speed, leaping ability and some Lance "Buddy" Franklin-like traits. Balta kicked 18 goals from his eight TAC Cup games and with continued improvement has the scope to be as good as anyone in the 2017 draft class.

---

Seemingly a perfect fit given how versatile SOS is building this team.

Who needs a nickname when your surname is Balta? The Balta from the Blue.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Harsh on Lamb. I would add Gorringe.
We need to make more changes, 12 or so, Thomas included, I don't think we can do them all this year.
Also might have to factor in losing a Gibbs (trade), a Kreuzer or Casboult (FA), or perhaps Simpson not going on.

Clubs tend to take up to 6 players in the draft. We took 5 then 6 the last 2 years.
Depends how many DFAs etc, SOS rates / gets, players traded in, as to the number we delist this year. Maybe a rookie upgrade or 2.

I'm not so sure we need to make 12 changes this season. I reckon there's probably about 15-16 players we'd expect to move on by the end of 2018, and given a lot of our lesser lights are actually playing good VFL footy there's not a lot of harm in keeping a few of them on for another year on a modest wage.

DELIST (or steak-knives in trades): Gorringe, Palmer, Boekhorst, Korchek
RETIRE: Armfield
50/50 (retain one, lose the other): Lamb vs. Buckley, Gallucci vs Lebois, Jaksch vs. Jones
ONE-YEAR DEAL: Sumner, Kerridge, Graham, White, Thomas

That's 8 players out, maybe 9 if Sheehan can't get his body right. Gibbs and Kreuzer maybe push that up, but I reckon they're more likely to stay than go.

 

[F_therest]

7 goals from 12 matches. I'm calling it prematurely - Charlie ain't a forward.

He's no Brendon Fevola, Lance Whitnall, Josh Kennedy, Brad Pearce, Steve Kernahan, Jarrad Waite or Earl Spalding.

Of all our goalkickers of the past 20 years, he doesn't fit the template.

You're right, you're way too premature.

Since when did all 'forwards' need to be like those players you mentioned?

He's a medium forward, not KPF.

 

[HARKER]

DELIST (or steak-knives in trades): Gorringe, Palmer, Boekhorst, Korchek
RETIRE: Armfield
50/50 (retain one, lose the other): Lamb vs. Buckley, Gallucci vs Lebois, Jaksch vs. Jones
ONE-YEAR DEAL: Sumner, Kerridge, Graham, White, Thomas

That's 8 players out, maybe 9 if Sheehan can't get his body right. Gibbs and Kreuzer maybe push that up, but I reckon they're more likely to stay than go.

We could lose all those guys in reality but the depth would take a tumble.

Early days, but from what I'm hearing of Lebois, he won't be going anywhere.
Reckon Jaksch has been showing plenty, back & forward. Really very little to gain in de-listing him now.
Thomas will stay now that we've cleared things up. More than that though, he seems to have found the extra yard of pace he had lost.
Korchek has another year to run also. I think it's 3 years for a Cat B

 

[F_therest]

I'm not so sure we need to make 12 changes this season. I reckon there's probably about 15-16 players we'd expect to move on by the end of 2018, and given a lot of our lesser lights are actually playing good VFL footy there's not a lot of harm in keeping a few of them on for another year on a modest wage.

DELIST (or steak-knives in trades): Gorringe, Palmer, Boekhorst, Korchek
RETIRE: Armfield
50/50 (retain one, lose the other): Lamb vs. Buckley, Gallucci vs Lebois, Jaksch vs. Jones
ONE-YEAR DEAL: Sumner, Kerridge, Graham, White, Thomas

That's 8 players out, maybe 9 if Sheehan can't get his body right. Gibbs and Kreuzer maybe push that up, but I reckon they're more likely to stay than go.

Yep it's interesting since the '100% DELIST' list has shrunk over the last few weeks.

Jones was on everyone's delist list, yet if he continues this form we'd surely keep him on a modest contract to at least be handy backup and help our VFL team.

Graham is doing good things in the 1's and has seemingly saved his career.

Thomas is looking like he'll get another contract, albeit at a greatly reduced salary.

Even Korchek did some nice things in the VFL game on the weekend...good in the hitouts and took a strong F50 mark and nice goal.
Needs to do more around the ground but i reckon we'll give him another year.

The only definite delistings/retirements i have are Gorringe, Palmer, Lamb, Armfield & Buckley (sadly).

Boek and Jaksch could be traded/delisted...will be interesting to see if we keep them since they have been performing OK at VFL level and are young enough to make it...just feel their lack of intensity/drive could see them moved on.