Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Azul]

You're right, you're way too premature.

Since when did all 'forwards' need to be like those players you mentioned?

He's a medium forward, not KPF.

At 194cm, he's not a medium anything. That's the same height as Jarrad Waite.

 

[DangerousD]

Wholeheartedly agree.

It's why I get a little frustrated when I see the optimists in here suggesting a finals finish this year or next, or people suggesting that we go all out, and make a play for Fyfe. The worst thing you can do in the rebuild is rush it. We need a patient and methodical approach. List management needs to forecast three or four years into the future and not be thinking about this year or even the next.

Going hard at midfielders this year will eat up all of our early draft picks. From a 'forecasting into the future' perspective, I'm deeply concerned about the state of our key forward stocks. All of our eggs are in the one (Mckay) basket at present. If he doesn't make it, that seriously hurts our chances of a premiership over the next 10 years.

I know I'm alone here but I would love to target a young gun key forward. I prioritise this over a midfielder. If we are short a midfielder or two come 2020 than we can always get one or two in as free agents (Dylan Shiel will be available in 2020). Every year there are three or four A grade or elite midfielders available as free agents. Key marking forwards however are rare as hens teeth.

I would hate to finish the rebuild with a elite backline and a gun midfield, but no tall marking power forwards and the same problems we've been experiencing since Fevola left.

Agree with this, if we have pick 3-6 and the best available is a KPF then we take him. But then where do we get the top quality mids with no second rounder?
This is why I'm still of the opinion one of Gibbs, Cas or Kruz is gone.
All can be temporarily replaced by DFA"s whilst draftees develop.

 

[HARKER]

Agree with this, if we have pick 3-6 and the best available is a KPF then we take him. But then where do we get the top quality mids with no second rounder?
This is why I'm still of the opinion one of Gibbs, Cas or Kruz is gone.
All can be temporarily replaced by DFA"s whilst draftees develop.

Not if we have our eyes trained on a KPF already.

I don't know SOS, but if I was sitting in his chair, I'd have already done all my homework on the KPF we want for 2018/9
Full forwards are almost becoming like ruck-men, in that it takes years before they'll deliver what you want them to be delivering regularly.

Saints took #1 McCartin and three years on, he's still playing reserves football.
#1 mini-draft, Hogan is a gun, but even he's finding his way up the ground right now.
#2 Tom Boyd was going to be the power forward of all power forwards.......now an expensive ruck-man.
#3 Schache in his second year and he's hardly getting his hands on it.

There are many ways to go about things and having this power forward isn't the be-all.
Funny that we're even discussing taking a KPF in this years draft, when we took one in 2015.........and he hasn't even played a game yet.

SOS will have his KPF earmarked and we'll be taking mids in this and next years draft..........I 'hope'

 

[Jimmae]

According to the players' collective bargaining agreement, which is entering its final year, first-round draftees receive a base of $74,740 in their first season and $3660 a match.

Players taken in the second round of the draft are employed on a base of $67,935, and all other players from the third round down to pre-season selections are on a $64,395 base.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-24/how-much-does-an-afl-draft-pick-earn

There are 40 players on our senior list, 4 rookies and 2 Cat B rookies. If we're paying 'at least' 400k for each player in the best 22 thats 'at least' 9 million dollars. Its leaving 3 million dollars for the 24 other listed players (taking into account the CBA thats pushing the 12 million dollar mark if those 24 are all on 1st year recruit wages of 100k per year.

My only point was that just because the Salary cap increases, player contracts will remain the same.

If you singed a 3 year deal last year for 450k per annum, then you earn 450k per annum. Just because the cap has increased, doesnt mean the club will suddenly start paying its players more than what they are contracted for.

The 2016 average salary was 300k, and it won't have nudged much this year given the GWS list rule changes late last year (and the Essendon top ups). The median is probably much closer to 200k, but that figure of 300k also incorporates:

- Additional Service Agreements (something like $1.3m on top of the cap)
- Cap extensions due to rolling cap count (as much as $1m, I believe)

So that $11.8 quickly hits a theoretical max of at least $14.1m, and that's before the discounts on rookie payments.

Also remember that all these quoted figures are TPP estimates, based on playing an expected amount of games. The more senior and highly paid the player, the more they're expected to be fit most of the time and playing AFL. Playing a VFL/WAFL/NEAFL/SANFL match usually earns them next-to-nothing (certainly in draftee contracts).

It's true that more senior contracts, certainly in the 22-28 bracket, tend to deal more in fixed payments rather than upping match payments, but it's my personal belief this ultimately has more to do with the AFL's fixed cap minimum than player power. Take away, or significantly reduce that minimum, and I believe that contract structures would shift and place a great emphasis on a player to meet clauses.

The idea would be not to punish players for getting injured, but rather being able to reward those who perform by taking wages off those who don't. And to better acknowledge that perennial cellar dwellers are not within 5-10% of the value of the best team in the land.

Reckon Jaksch has been showing plenty, back & forward. Really very little to gain in de-listing him now.

That depends on his contract option.

 

[Malifice]

Not if we have our eyes trained on a KPF already.

I don't know SOS, but if I was sitting in his chair, I'd have already done all my homework on the KPF we want for 2018/9
Full forwards are almost becoming like ruck-men, in that it takes years before they'll deliver what you want them to be delivering regularly.

Saints took #1 McCartin and three years on, he's still playing reserves football.
#1 mini-draft, Hogan is a gun, but even he's finding his way up the ground right now.
#2 Tom Boyd was going to be the power forward of all power forwards.......now an expensive ruck-man.
#3 Schache in his second year and he's hardly getting his hands on it.

There are many ways to go about things and having this power forward isn't the be-all.
Funny that we're even discussing taking a KPF in this years draft, when we took one in 2015.........and he hasn't even played a game yet.

SOS will have his KPF earmarked and we'll be taking mids in this and next years draft..........I 'hope'

Kennedy and Hawkins took 4 years to show anything and then they both just went bang.

Those key forward types take time.

 

[Jimmae]

Kennedy and Hawkins took 4 years to show anything and then they both just went bang.

Those key forward types take time.

Hawkins was a 2nd forward for his first five years, averaging way more than a goal a game from day one. Much better in that time given Kennedy's initial three and a half years (which we arguably stunted).

 

[HARKER]

Kennedy and Hawkins took 4 years to show anything and then they both just went bang.

Those key forward types take time.

Yes, that's what I'm clearly saying. They take time so why just wait?
We're already waiting on Harry McKay. How many are we going to sit on and wait?

Target the KPF you want now for '18/'19 and make sure that everything is in place to afford him....love him now...do what you have to do and in the meantime?.......build the midfield into a powerhouse so that they have something to kick to when all the pieces are in place. Easy

 

[Malifice]

Agree with this, if we have pick 3-6 and the best available is a KPF then we take him. But then where do we get the top quality mids with no second rounder?
This is why I'm still of the opinion one of Gibbs, Cas or Kruz is gone.
All can be temporarily replaced by DFA"s whilst draftees develop.

Any of Gibbs, Casboult or Kruezer nets us another top 20 pick.

We could get super lucky and some club decides to spend it's extra 20 percent salary cap on a huge FA offer to Kruezer triggering band 1 compo.

That's the perfect dream scenario for me. Kruezer leaves for Band 1, we trade Gibbs and a 3rd for Adelaides 1st and 2nd. Trade our future 1st for a pick this year around pick 8. Casboult leaves for Band 3.

Go into this draft with picks 3, 4, 8, 17, 21, 35 and 67

Then we go hard at FA next year and the year after with a huge war chest.

Sounds like were targeting a few GWS mids though from the sounds of it.

What makes Hopper so good? I'm really not seeing it.

 

[Malifice]

Yes, that's what I'm clearly saying. They take time so why just wait?
We're already waiting on Harry McKay. How many are we going to sit on and wait?

Target the KPF you want now for '18/'19 and make sure that everything is in place to afford him....love him now...do what you have to do and in the meantime?.......build the midfield into a powerhouse so that they have something to kick to when all the pieces are in place. Easy

We know were not going to be competing for a few years so my point is we should get the KPF first (becsuse they tale a few years) and then get the Mids.

Each year there are at least 3 elite mids available as free agents. You can rebuild your midfield pretty quickly by drafting a mid and getting another in via free agency over 2 years. Just 2 years of doing that gives us a core six of Cripps, SPS, 2 x mids taken with 1st round picks, 2 x elite FA.

 

[rog1995]

Sounds

If we get a key forward in the draft I'm going to put my money on it being Balta. The others are either academy-bound (Brisbane, GWS) or KPF-ruck hybrids like McKay.

---

Knightmare

5. Noah Balta (VIC)
Position: Key forward
Height, weight: 193cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Projected draft range: First to second round
Profile: Freakishly athletic key forward, who breaks the lines like a small or medium size running specialist. He possesses rare speed, leaping ability and some Lance "Buddy" Franklin-like traits. Balta kicked 18 goals from his eight TAC Cup games and with continued improvement has the scope to be as good as anyone in the 2017 draft class.

---

Seemingly a perfect fit given how versatile SOS is building this team.

Sounds like Charlie Curnow

 

[HARKER]

We know were not going to be competing for a few years so my point is we should get the KPF first (becsuse they tale a few years) and then get the Mids.

Each year there are at least 3 elite mids available as free agents. You can rebuild your midfield pretty quickly by drafting a mid and getting another in via free agency over 2 years. Just 2 years of doing that gives us a core six of Cripps, SPS, 2 x mids taken with 1st round picks, 2 x elite FA.

Here's the thing. You may be right.......I may be right........or we may both be wrong.

As it stands, I'm confident that we won't be targeting a KPF with our first pick this year, nor our first next year, which I don't think we'll hold.
Chances are that a good one may not even be there for us, at whatever pick we land.

At least one thing; it's a little more exciting this year than for previous years, because at least we can see a foundation to build on, now.

 

[BluesRule]

We know were not going to be competing for a few years so my point is we should get the KPF first (becsuse they tale a few years) and then get the Mids.

Each year there are at least 3 elite mids available as free agents. You can rebuild your midfield pretty quickly by drafting a mid and getting another in via free agency over 2 years. Just 2 years of doing that gives us a core six of Cripps, SPS, 2 x mids taken with 1st round picks, 2 x elite FA.

C'mon Mal. Appreciate the need for a KPF but lets move on. If there is a great KPF at our pick I have no doubt SOS will pick him, but if the best player is a mid then that would fit our rebuild. Imagine another SPS/Cripps level player in our midfield. Would be good eh!

We have Kerr (#1 KPF in U18 last year and member of AA team). Forget we got him for #65 - as he told everybody in the Press that he was directed to "kick points" if anybody but CFC picked him. He is family and wanted to go to CFC. He will be a Silvagni style pick. But will take a bit of time to bulk up for AFL.

We have Harry who looks a super talent and has great hands marking the ball well above the pack. Mobile, tall and rangy, this boy will play AFL and likely play it very well later this season.

I have excluded Weitering but will be a very good KPF if played there.

And we have depth in Casboult who is really stepping up and starting to look like a player, LJ, KJ, Gorringe, etc. Plus resting rucks etc. We cannot play them all.
SOS will also have his finger on mature recruits to upgrade our depth.

But we massively need more mids right now - and high quality ones asap

 

[HARKER]

But we massively need more mids right now - and high quality ones asap

It takes mids a good 2 - 3 years to get up to any speed and even then, it's a bit unfair to rely on them to do all the heavy lifting.
That's why targeting Hopper & Kennedy makes for perfect sense and if takes next years first+ to do it, so be it.
We can then grab ourselves a couple of mids at this years draft, giving them time to build towards '19 / '20

I have no idea where that KPF may come from and who knows, we'd still have plenty of time to find out whether that guy is Harry McKay.
That all just feels right and considered, to me.

 

[rog1995]

Not if we have our eyes trained on a KPF already.

I don't know SOS, but if I was sitting in his chair, I'd have already done all my homework on the KPF we want for 2018/9
Full forwards are almost becoming like ruck-men, in that it takes years before they'll deliver what you want them to be delivering regularly.

Saints took #1 McCartin and three years on, he's still playing reserves football.
#1 mini-draft, Hogan is a gun, but even he's finding his way up the ground right now.
#2 Tom Boyd was going to be the power forward of all power forwards.......now an expensive ruck-man.
#3 Schache in his second year and he's hardly getting his hands on it.

There are many ways to go about things and having this power forward isn't the be-all.
Funny that we're even discussing taking a KPF in this years draft, when we took one in 2015.........and he hasn't even played a game yet.

SOS will have his KPF earmarked and we'll be taking mids in this and next years draft..........I 'hope'

Bulldogs won the flag without one

 

[Robertio]

I understand what your saying however the risk is a KPP may not turn out like you hoped. Mcartin, Boyd, Moore are all high selections who have struggled and been in the system a few years. If we trade out Kreuzer who will be our ruck?

Please let us keep the big number 8.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Over the past 5 weeks (approx) I've managed to see a couple of the Eastern Ranges home games as they're generally not very far from home. While Jaidyn Stephenson, Joel Garner & Sam Hayes were of particular interest, there was a kid wearing the No.1 jumper, Adam Cerra, that is really easy on the eye as an inside midfielder.

He's very, very good with his clearance and stoppage work where he is just as likely to find a team mate on the outside with an accurate right-foot kick as he is by hand. It's not just his ability to win the ball in close, or his vision and awareness of where his team mates are, but his ability to execute under pressure while doing all of that that makes him stand out. Speaking to others who watch these matches every week, the message I'm getting is that he is very consistent with his performances.

Cerra doesn't possess Garner's outright speed or X-factor, but as an inside mid, Cerra is on another level to Garner. The next challenge for Cerra will be to perform just as well at the U18 Nat Champs and if he can I'd be surprised if he doesn't go somewhere in the 1st Round. I don't know if Jimmae or Arr0w know any more that they can add about him.

 

[rog1995]

Seriously this KPF talk in my opinion is not warranted. We recruit another KPF the likelihood is we will lose McKay as he will want opportunities. We have McKay,Silvagni, Kerr,Weitering & Curnow that's more than a handy forward line to kick a score. If anything we need a crumbing forward/midfielder to assist. Hopefully Graham is one who can perform a role. You say McKay hasn't proven anything and your right however he's 19 and had a couple of years development. Do you think if we recruit another KPP he will be playing seniors in the next few years? Mcartin, Boyd & Schace are all struggling to get games and all were taken in the top two 2-5 years ago.

 

[blue_trinity]

Over the past 5 weeks (approx) I've managed to see a couple of the Eastern Ranges home games as they're generally not very far from home. While Jaidyn Stephenson, Joel Garner & Sam Hayes were of particular interest, there was a kid wearing the No.1 jumper, Adam Cerra, that is really easy on the eye as an inside midfielder.

He's very, very good with his clearance and stoppage work where he is just as likely to find a team mate on the outside with an accurate right-foot kick as he is by hand. It's not just his ability to win the ball in close, or his vision and awareness of where his team mates are, but his ability to execute under pressure while doing all of that that makes him stand out. Speaking to others who watch these matches every week, the message I'm getting is that he is very consistent with his performances.

Cerra doesn't possess Garner's outright speed or X-factor, but as an inside mid, Cerra is on another level to Garner. The next challenge for Cerra will be to perform just as well at the U18 Nat Champs and if he can I'd be surprised if he doesn't go somewhere in the 1st Round. I don't know if Jimmae or Arr0w know any more that they can add about him.

Cerra is a force around stoppages. Averaging around the 25 posessions per game, and as you said, he's a decent kick.

I'd say he's in the top 10 at this stage.

 

[Red Bull]

If we get a key forward in the draft I'm going to put my money on it being Balta. The others are either academy-bound (Brisbane, GWS) or KPF-ruck hybrids like McKay.

---

Knightmare

5. Noah Balta (VIC)
Position: Key forward
Height, weight: 193cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Projected draft range: First to second round
Profile: Freakishly athletic key forward, who breaks the lines like a small or medium size running specialist. He possesses rare speed, leaping ability and some Lance "Buddy" Franklin-like traits. Balta kicked 18 goals from his eight TAC Cup games and with continued improvement has the scope to be as good as anyone in the 2017 draft class.

---

Seemingly a perfect fit given how versatile SOS is building this team.

Fails to meet TheSheiks KPF height criteria .
Appears Malifice would agree considering his thoughts re C.Curnow as a KPF ...

 

[1981]

Seriously this KPF talk in my opinion is not warranted. We recruit another KPF the likelihood is we will lose McKay as he will want opportunities. We have McKay,Silvagni, Kerr,Weitering & Curnow that's more than a handy forward line to kick a score. If anything we need a crumbing forward/midfielder to assist. Hopefully Graham is one who can perform a role. You say McKay hasn't proven anything and your right however he's 19 and had a couple of years development. Do you think if we recruit another KPP he will be playing seniors in the next few years? Mcartin, Boyd & Schace are all struggling to get games and all were taken in the top two 2-5 years ago.

Agreed our focus ought to be mids and a small forward

 

[Jimmae]

small forward

Wright, Pickett, Sumner, Fisher, Polson, LeBois, Gallucci, Lamb.

OK.

Bulldogs won the flag without one

Boyd? Redpath?

 

[beej12]

I'm not so sure we need to make 12 changes this season. I reckon there's probably about 15-16 players we'd expect to move on by the end of 2018, and given a lot of our lesser lights are actually playing good VFL footy there's not a lot of harm in keeping a few of them on for another year on a modest wage.

DELIST (or steak-knives in trades): Gorringe, Palmer, Boekhorst, Korchek
RETIRE: Armfield
50/50 (retain one, lose the other): Lamb vs. Buckley, Gallucci vs Lebois, Jaksch vs. Jones
ONE-YEAR DEAL: Sumner, Kerridge, Graham, White, Thomas

That's 8 players out, maybe 9 if Sheehan can't get his body right. Gibbs and Kreuzer maybe push that up, but I reckon they're more likely to stay than go.

Why are you prepared to lose one of Gallucci and Lebois?? Neither have played a single game yet you already want to get rid of one of them?? Don't see a whole lot of logic behind that.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Why are you prepared to lose one of Gallucci and Lebois?? Neither have played a single game yet you already want to get rid of one of them?? Don't see a whole lot of logic behind that.

I just don't think we need both of them on the list - by year's end we should make a call on which offers more to our team. Maybe they'll both perform well in the back half of the year and demand spots, maybe, but rookies tend to be turned over pretty regularly. I'd say if Gallucci in particular hasn't cracked the seniors by year's end we'll let him go and go back to the draft.

 

[bmaurizio]

Agree with this, if we have pick 3-6 and the best available is a KPF then we take him. But then where do we get the top quality mids with no second rounder?
This is why I'm still of the opinion one of Gibbs, Cas or Kruz is gone.
All can be temporarily replaced by DFA"s whilst draftees develop.

Agree with you regrading the trades, but as for this years pick it will probably be 2 to 4 as the grounds harden and best teams are on the park.
There'll be scope for a priority pick 19 or 20.

 

[Arr0w]

Over the past 5 weeks (approx) I've managed to see a couple of the Eastern Ranges home games as they're generally not very far from home. While Jaidyn Stephenson, Joel Garner & Sam Hayes were of particular interest, there was a kid wearing the No.1 jumper, Adam Cerra, that is really easy on the eye as an inside midfielder.

He's very, very good with his clearance and stoppage work where he is just as likely to find a team mate on the outside with an accurate right-foot kick as he is by hand. It's not just his ability to win the ball in close, or his vision and awareness of where his team mates are, but his ability to execute under pressure while doing all of that that makes him stand out. Speaking to others who watch these matches every week, the message I'm getting is that he is very consistent with his performances.

Cerra doesn't possess Garner's outright speed or X-factor, but as an inside mid, Cerra is on another level to Garner. The next challenge for Cerra will be to perform just as well at the U18 Nat Champs and if he can I'd be surprised if he doesn't go somewhere in the 1st Round. I don't know if Jimmae or Arr0w know any more that they can add about him.

Been overseas, so have only just started taking in some games. Cerra will continue to improve given the injury he sustained last year. He very much reminds me of a Blake Acres type. The thing that impresses me about Cerra, is his team ethos. Last time I saw him play was in 2015, so I am looking forward to seeing him live this year