Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Nori]

Reid is definitely not an A grader, so 800K seems way too high. It's true the club needs to invest in players but this type of money would be better spent on players that would be top 5-10 on the list. Players that will have a real impact.

Jaksch and Jones could play the same role as Reid for a fraction of the price and they can't even get a game at present.

 

[BluesRule]

Reid doesn't have to be better but just to complement what we have.
The one downside of attaining Reid may be that we don't get anything for Casboult, should he walk as a FA. That would be a problem.

This isn't the most important thing and not to be the motivational factor on attaining players but........we have to spend money.
Plenty of time for things to open up, but if we must spend the money this year, we best be smart about it.
Maybe the soon-to-be signings of SPS and CCurnow have something to do with that.

Only my opinion, but I would prefer Casboult to Reid. Cas loves the club (not a mercenary), is playing well and kicking straighter than ever, can take a mark (great hands), creates a real presence up forward (much bigger than Reid) so worries defenders (as he crushes them!). Much better value, knows the game plan, not that much older (<2 years) so plenty of years to go and he costs us nothing. Reid has been playing for longer in a quality team and yet Casboult scores more Goals per game. I think Reid only adds to our depth and we should not pay premium prices for Depth as we need the cash for Shiel and Lynch

Sam Reid Name Levi Casboult
Sydney Swans Team Carlton Blues
Forward Position Forward
105 Career Games 79
Murray Bushrangers Origin Dandenong Stingrays
December 27, 1991 Date of Birth March 15, 1990
25yr 4mth Age 27yr 1mth
196cm Height 201cm
97kg Weight 103kg
2009 National Draft Last Drafted In 2012 National Draft
Round 3, Pick #38 Last Draft Position Round 5, Pick #89
Sydney Swans Last Drafted By Carlton Blues
Career Stats for Season Career
105 Games 79
5.9 Kicks Per Game 6.0
5.2 Handballs Per Game 3.7
11.1 Disposals Per Game 9.7
4.3 Marks Per Game 5.3
1.0 Goals Per Game 1.1
0.7 Behinds Per Game 0.8
2.2 Tackles Per Game 1.6
1.2 Hitouts Per Game 4.9
1.4 Inside 50s Per Game 1.5
0.4 Goal Assists Per Game 0.2
0.8 Frees For Per Game 0.7
0.4 Frees Against Per Game 0.8
5.3 Contested Possessions Per Game 5.0
6.0 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 4.9
7.7 Effective Disposals Per Game 6.7
69.4% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 69.1%
1.4 Clangers Per Game 2.0
1.3 Contested Marks Per Game 2.2
1.4 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 1.7
0.4 Clearances Per Game 0.5
0.4 Rebound 50s Per Game 0.2
2.4 One Percenters Per Game 2.0
0 Bounces Per Game 0
86.6 Time On Ground % Per Game 86.4

 

[Jimmae]

If we are relying on Gorringe we are in big trouble.
In likely delist group IMO.

Better to have some insurance than none.

Gorringe's achilles issue is one that's cropped up in previous seasons and halted his progress. He's still got time. I'd roll the dice with him if Levi can net band 3 or higher (and we're not worried about net compensation issues with FA).

 

[Blue__Balls]

For those advocating Reid - whose spot does he take?

He's not going to be going to any club on $700-800k per year to play in the VFL, so if we were to secure his services as a free agent he'll need to be afforded a spot in the starting 22.

Typical forward line at the moment:

Curnow, Casboult, Silvagni
Wright, Weitering, (resting mid)

Does Reid force Casboult out of the side? If so, do we lose Casboult to free agency? If so, we get nothing in return because we've recruited Reid.
Does Reid take Silvagni's spot? Is that what we want for Jack's development?
Does Reid take Weitering's spot? Who makes way in the back line to accommodate that move?
What happens when McKay demands selection?

Honestly, I see Reid and his likely contract expectations (asking $800k, will probably get $650-700k, on at least a 3 year deal, probably 4) as exactly the kind of thing we did with Daisy and Jones that's had everyone so frustrated for the last few years.

By the second year of his contract, Reid will either be taking a spot off a kid who we want to get games into, or he'll be a massively expensive reserves player.

If we're going to Free Agency route for a key forward, it either needs to be a top flight option like Patton or Cameron or Lynch, or it needs to be an underpriced, temporary depth recruitment (ala Aaron Black at Geelong).

 

[Iamcarlton]

For those advocating Reid - whose spot does he take?

He's not going to be going to any club on $700-800k per year to play in the VFL, so if we were to secure his services as a free agent he'll need to be afforded a spot in the starting 22.

Typical forward line at the moment:

Curnow, Casboult, Silvagni
Wright, Weitering, (resting mid)

Does Reid force Casboult out of the side? If so, do we lose Casboult to free agency? If so, we get nothing in return because we've recruited Reid.
Does Reid take Silvagni's spot? Is that what we want for Jack's development?
Does Reid take Weitering's spot? Who makes way in the back line to accommodate that move?
What happens when McKay demands selection?

Honestly, I see Reid and his likely contract expectations (asking $800k, will probably get $650-700k, on at least a 3 year deal, probably 4) as exactly the kind of thing we did with Daisy and Jones that's had everyone so frustrated for the last few years.

By the second year of his contract, Reid will either be taking a spot off a kid who we want to get games into, or he'll be a massively expensive reserves player.

If we're going to Free Agency route for a key forward, it either needs to be a top flight option like Patton or Cameron or Lynch, or it needs to be an underpriced, temporary depth recruitment (ala Aaron Black at Geelong).

Youve just contradicted your own point dont need Reid because of the reasons you pointed out but its fine for Patton Cameron or Lynch to push Mckay or Casboult out of the side ??
Reid is also flexible that he can be a good option in defense if Weitering ends up as our CHF and Mckay FF and when Rowe and ASilvagni are gone . Having options like that are gold and is the way SOS seems to like it by the way he recruits . And hes only 25 .
Btw comparing him to jones i think hes better than that ...

 

[Blue__Balls]

Youve just contradicted your own point dont need Reid because of the points you pointed out but its fine for Patton Cameron or Lynch to push Mckay or Casboult out of the side ??
Reid is also flexible that he can be a good option in defense if Weitering ends up as our CHF and Mckay FF and when Rowe and ASilvagni are gone . Having options like that are gold and is the way SOS seems to like it by the way he recruits . And hes only 25 .

Not a contradiction at all champ - I'd be more than happy for one of Patton, Cameron or Lynch to push Casboult out of the side, because any one of them would be, without question, an upgrade on Levi. Reid is not an upgrade on Levi, he's at best a sideways shuffle that burns a hole in our pocket at the same time. Needing a forward isn't the same as needing Reid.

If we recruited Reid to replace Levi, and Levi left as a free agent to chase opportunity/money elsewhere, then we get no compensation pick. It's a pointless like-for-like swap with the added bonus of some shady injury history.

If we recruit Reid, keep Levi, then something has to give - either one of the kids (ie. Silvagni) is relegated to VFL so we can play Reid and Casboult, or Weitering moves down back. If Weitering does go down back, then presumably he takes Rowe's spot - so the swap becomes Reid for Rowe...not seeing a lot of gain there either. Then when McKay demands selection we're still dropping Reid to the VFL on $700k a year...

If we want another KPF I see three options - draft one (and develop over the next few years), spend up on a gun via free agency or trade (someone capable of winning a Coleman), or recruit a moneyball option who can fill a spot when required but won't command huge coin (in this scenario we may as well extend Jones' contract).

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

For those advocating Reid - whose spot does he take?

He's not going to be going to any club on $700-800k per year to play in the VFL, so if we were to secure his services as a free agent he'll need to be afforded a spot in the starting 22.

i agree, for that kind of money i don't think there's any argument to be made to go after him.

he's the same age as Levi and his production this year isn't any better. with Levi's newly found accuracy and his ability in ruck we're far better off with Levi going forward.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Not a contradiction at all champ - I'd be more than happy for one of Patton, Cameron or Lynch to push Casboult out of the side, because any one of them would be, without question, an upgrade on Levi. Reid is not an upgrade on Levi, he's at best a sideways shuffle that burns a hole in our pocket at the same time. Needing a forward isn't the same as needing Reid.

If we recruited Reid to replace Levi, and Levi left as a free agent to chase opportunity/money elsewhere, then we get no compensation pick. It's a pointless like-for-like swap with the added bonus of some shady injury history.

If we recruit Reid, keep Levi, then something has to give - either one of the kids (ie. Silvagni) is relegated to VFL so we can play Reid and Casboult, or Weitering moves down back. If Weitering does go down back, then presumably he takes Rowe's spot - so the swap becomes Reid for Rowe...not seeing a lot of gain there either. Then when McKay demands selection we're still dropping Reid to the VFL on $700k a year...

If we want another KPF I see three options - draft one (and develop over the next few years), spend up on a gun via free agency or trade (someone capable of winning a Coleman), or recruit a moneyball option who can fill a spot when required but won't command huge coin (in this scenario we may as well extend Jones' contract).

Of course it would be lovely to have those players but are they on the market ?? Ok so what happens to Mckay as you said . Reid doesnt have to be an upgrade why do people think this way he only has to add value to the side and because of his flexibility i think he does . Its a free hit to add a good 25yr old KPP so long as we dont lose a player to FA for some extra bucks that is a given anyway to get any FA . And we lose Rowe and Silvagni soon ? .

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Youve just contradicted your own point dont need Reid because of the reasons you pointed out but its fine for Patton Cameron or Lynch to push Mckay or Casboult out of the side ??
Reid is also flexible that he can be a good option in defense if Weitering ends up as our CHF and Mckay FF and when Rowe and ASilvagni are gone . Having options like that are gold and is the way SOS seems to like it by the way he recruits . And hes only 25 .
Btw comparing him to jones i think hes better than that ...

those guys are proven guns. if patton said he wants to play at carlton and the price was mckay (plus a big wage), i wouldn't be able to throw mckay out the door fast enough.

reid is not a gun, he's decent versatile 2 forward.

 

[1981]

Can Reid kick?
Is he injury prone?

I'm not sold on him.
I think we have a lot of KPPs already and if we get another one he should be elite level.

Forget the romance of his old man for one minute.

 

[Jeremias]

I've never been a huge fan of Reid, and I'd rather we steered well clear of him.

He certainly has talent but at 26 he's still yet to develop any consistency to his game & he's obviously had his fair share of injuries throughout his career.

For the money we'd likely have to offer to bring him across, he's simply not worth it. Not even close IMO. More than happy to let Collingwood pay big bucks for him so that he can play with his brother.

If we're throwing big money at a key forward I'd much rather it be Schache, even though we'd obviously have to trade for him.

 

[Iamcarlton]

those guys are proven guns. if patton said he wants to play at carlton and the price was mckay (plus a big wage), i wouldn't be able to throw mckay out the door fast enough.

reid is not a gun, he's decent versatile 2 forward.

Thats just heresay and talking what ifs . We could talk all day about what ifs . Fact is Reid is available at present next year .
Maybe you didnt read my post properly i didnt say reid was a gun but would add value to the side . Tough call to throw Mckay out already only just started his improvement and for all we know could turn out better than Patton .
But i guess you work in the now .

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Thats just heresay and talking what ifs . We could talk all day about what ifs . Fact is Reid is available at present next year .
Maybe you didnt read my post properly i didnt say reid was a gun but would add value to the side . Tough call to throw Mckay out already only just started his improvement and for all we know could turn out better than Patton .
But i guess you work in the now .

the guy can play and if he was available on the cheap then we should definitely look at him. but i don't think i can justify paying big dollars for him. i'd much rather stick with developing mckay if those are my options.

 

[Iamcarlton]

the guy can play and if he was available on the cheap then we should definitely look at him. but i don't think i can justify paying big dollars for him. i'd much rather stick with developing mckay if those are my options.

Fair call

 

[Blue__Balls]

Thats just heresay and talking what ifs . We could talk all day about what ifs . Fact is Reid is available at present next year .
Maybe you didnt read my post properly i didnt say reid was a gun but would add value to the side . Tough call to throw Mckay out already only just started his improvement and for all we know could turn out better than Patton .
But i guess you work in the now .

Recruiting Reid would be the definition of working "in the now".

He adds flexibility because he can also play down back...our backline is as loaded as it could possibly be. Marchbank, Plowman, Rowe, Silvagni, Macreadie, Weitering. Yes, some will be phased out, but we replace them organically through the draft without spending three quarters of a million per year.

He adds value...if he plays. In order to play, he has to take someone's spot. That's either Casboult or Rowe, depending on whether we send Weiters down back. He isn't an upgrade on either of those players, so we'd be paying $700k per season for a player who can do the same job as those guys.

If you want to recruit him "for the future" then we're paying $700k for a VFL player for the next few years. And that assumes he'd be willing to come to any club who planned on playing him in the reserves. If he's moving clubs it's for money and opportunity.

Reid: $700k per year, swingman, injury prone, limited potential for improvement, 6-7 years left
Casboult: $400k per year, best contested mark in the comp, can support ruck, questionable kicking, limited potential for improvement, ~5 years left
Rowe: $500k per year, statistically one of the best defensive stoppers in the comp, can play ruck, can play forward, slow, peaked in ability, ~4 years left

The only thing that has Reid ahead of those guys is his age, but if that's your argument then we're better off drafting a KPP or two and eking every last inch of service out of Rowe and Casboult while the kids develop.

 

[Red Bull]

It's a no re Reid for mine .
I'm hoping Casboult can net us some FA compo at seasons end keeping in mind we currently don't hold a 2nd rounder .
Bringing in Reid (on big $) would wipe out any such compo .
He has injury history and if we are looking for a stop gap until McKay is ready , Jaksch or Jones can fill the breach for far less .

 

[Iamcarlton]

Recruiting Reid would be the definition of working "in the now".

He adds flexibility because he can also play down back...our backline is as loaded as it could possibly be. Marchbank, Plowman, Rowe, Silvagni, Macreadie, Weitering. Yes, some will be phased out, but we replace them organically through the draft without spending three quarters of a million per year.

He adds value...if he plays. In order to play, he has to take someone's spot. That's either Casboult or Rowe, depending on whether we send Weiters down back. He isn't an upgrade on either of those players, so we'd be paying $700k per season for a player who can do the same job as those guys.

If you want to recruit him "for the future" then we're paying $700k for a VFL player for the next few years. And that assumes he'd be willing to come to any club who planned on playing him in the reserves. If he's moving clubs it's for money and opportunity.

Reid: $700k per year, swingman, injury prone, limited potential for improvement, 6-7 years left
Casboult: $400k per year, best contested mark in the comp, can support ruck, questionable kicking, limited potential for improvement, ~5 years left
Rowe: $500k per year, statistically one of the best defensive stoppers in the comp, can play ruck, can play forward, slow, peaked in ability, ~4 years left

The only thing that has Reid ahead of those guys is his age, but if that's your argument then we're better off drafting a KPP or two and eking every last inch of service out of Rowe and Casboult while the kids develop.

Yep good points if it was a trade thing id say no most likely but being FAgency and with a couple of older guys in the backline i see it as worth looking at if your just talking dollars others dont fair enough . I do however feel Carlton supporters have been scared off Free Agency because of Dale Thomas .

 

[cookie monster]

I've never been a huge fan of Reid, and I'd rather we steered well clear of him.

He certainly has talent but at 26 he's still yet to develop any consistency to his game & he's obviously had his fair share of injuries throughout his career.

For the money we'd likely have to offer to bring him across, he's simply not worth it. Not even close IMO. More than happy to let Collingwood pay big bucks for him so that he can play with his brother.

If we're throwing big money at a key forward I'd much rather it be Schache, even though we'd obviously have to trade for him.

Schache would take 2 x First Rounders, and I'd rather we didn't do that.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Schache would take 2 x First Rounders, and I'd rather we didn't do that.

Why would he take two first rounders?

One sufficiently high pick plus some steak-knives is more than enough. Treloar went for two first rounders, and that was after consecutive seasons average around 28 touches a game, across 20+ games.

Schache has averaged a goal a game as pretty much the only key forward Brisbane have, he's done nothing to justify paying double what he was initially worth.

 

[cookie monster]

Why would he take two first rounders?

One sufficiently high pick plus some steak-knives is more than enough. Treloar went for two first rounders, and that was after consecutive seasons average around 28 touches a game, across 20+ games.

Schache has averaged a goal a game as pretty much the only key forward Brisbane have, he's done nothing to justify paying double what he was initially worth.

Alright Blue Balls, you reckon Brisbane are just going to roll over and accept what we tell them is fair? Richmond will likely offer something more than us because their list management is anus, and Brisbane will again try to make a stand that they won't accept their young players leaving the club after 2 years to Clubs that are obviously courting them throughout their tenure.

Leigh Matthews is on the record as saying they weren't happy with Docherty leaving, and therefore there probably isn't much if any goodwill in a trading relationship. Only way we get him cheap is with a strong position in the PSD, and that doesn't look likely either.

 

[Red Bull]

Alright Blue Balls, you reckon Brisbane are just going to roll over and accept what we tell them is fair? Richmond will likely offer something more than us because their list management is anus, and Brisbane will again try to make a stand that they won't accept their young players leaving the club after 2 years to Clubs that are obviously courting them throughout their tenure.

Leigh Matthews is on the record as saying they weren't happy with Docherty leaving, and therefore there probably isn't much if any goodwill in a trading relationship. Only way we get him cheap is with a strong position in the PSD, and that doesn't look likely either.

If Schache decides to leave and nominates Carlton , that's who Brisbane will have to deal with .
It doesn't matter if Richmond offer the crown jewels to Brisbane if Schache doesn't want to go there .
A likely top 5 pick and steak knives gets it done ... what are Brisbane to do otherwise , lose him in the draft for nothing ?
Leigh Mathews tried to call everyone's bluff re Aish , they didn't let him walk to the draft for nothing and copped the best they could .

 

[cookie monster]

If Schache decides to leave and nominates Carlton , that's who Brisbane will have to deal with .
It doesn't matter if Richmond offer the crown jewels to Brisbane if Schache doesn't want to go there .
A likely top 5 pick and steak knives gets it done ... what are Brisbane to do otherwise , lose him in the draft for nothing ?
Leigh Mathews tried to call everyone's bluff re Aish , they didn't let him walk to the draft for nothing and copped the best they could .

Your comparing a dime a dozen midfielder with an anus attitude, to a 200cm KPF taken at No. 2 18 months ago, who performed exceedingly well in his first year given the lack of older experience around him.

Brisbane are under no obligation to deal with us exclusively regardless of a nomination. I full expect them to dig their heels in on him leaving

 

[skadoosh]

So with Jones apparently being groomed by Bolton to be a CHB, is this to free up someone like Marchbank into the forward line, or Williamson to move onto the wing/centre? Obviously this hasn't been tried out at AFL level, so we don't know how this will turn out, but if true, this would be a short term thing to give our other defenders the flexibility of learning other positions? I can't really say...

 

[Iamcarlton]

So with Jones apparently being groomed by Bolton to be a CHB, is this to free up someone like Marchbank into the forward line, or Williamson to move onto the wing/centre? Obviously this hasn't been tried out at AFL level, so we don't know how this will turn out, but if true, this would be a short term thing to give our other defenders the flexibility of learning other positions? I can't really say...

Probably more that they want him out of the reserves forwardline in preference of Mckay Kerr and Jaksch to take Key forward spots . But yes may be a message to Jones your going to the backline this is your only chance to stay on the list go for it .

 

[BigFrizz36]

I've never been a huge fan of Reid, and I'd rather we steered well clear of him.

He certainly has talent but at 26 he's still yet to develop any consistency to his game & he's obviously had his fair share of injuries throughout his career.

For the money we'd likely have to offer to bring him across, he's simply not worth it. Not even close IMO. More than happy to let Collingwood pay big bucks for him so that he can play with his brother.

If we're throwing big money at a key forward I'd much rather it be Schache, even though we'd obviously have to trade for him.

There are plenty on here saying that we should look at Reid at around $700K per annum. Others on here think that the maximum we should go to keep Kreuzer is $450K. Just line up what each respective player brings to the team. I am beginning to understand how Donald █████ can be elected as president of the United States.