Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Azul]

Now i want to know what they are but can't be bothered sifting through a heap of crap.

Keeping Travis Cloke, picking up Boomer Harvey, Nicky Dal and Corey Enright.

 

[LordLucifer]

Yes, the year, as opposed to the season.

You know the off-season trades and drafts happen in the same year, yes?

I know exactly what you were saying but it is so far fetched & unrealistic it is not worth discussing.

 

[cookie monster]

Hypothetical:

Essendon grab Martin, 5 years at 5 mil

Do we go and try to get Daniher with 5 years at 3.5 mil?

A better fwd than Schache, and I know it would piss a lot of bombers fans off, and I like that

 

[LordLucifer]

Anyone thinking that finals is on the horizon in 2018 is in for a rude awakening. Our kids need more senior footy, a few more preseasons and a serious talent injection into our midfield before they take us to September.

Thank-you Gandhi, well said.

I hope you read this comment too Jimmae .

 

[passmark]

Hypothetical:

Essendon grab Martin, 5 years at 5 mil

Do we go and try to get Daniher with 5 years at 3.5 mil?

A better fwd than Schache, and I know it would piss a lot of bombers fans off, and I like that

More chance of Jack Silvagni going to the Bombers.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

Because in the trading market picks are currency. just because hopper will be better than whoever we draft with that pick doesn't make it a good trade, when we should be able to get him cheaper, or get more for that pick than just hopper.

by their 2nd year elite mids should be starting to show that they're elite and with the players being out at GWS hopper has had the opportunity to do so and hasn't quite done that. his numbers are similar to jack steele in his second year (i think hopper has more upside mind you) and he went for a future second.

if we're gonna talk about giving up top 5 picks then let's go for josh kelly.

He might not even want to come to us.. Maybe he doesn't think it's a good trade
Two way street if you're trying to be too cute

Basically what you're trying to do is improve your list the best you can against seventeen other clubs.

You don't have a monopoly on options

 

[ParapMarkets]

Thank-you Gandhi, well said.

I hope you read this comment too Jimmae .

I think you have mis-read Jimmae. He wasn't suggesting we will be top 4 next year, he was saying the goal is that the list at the end of the trade/draft period of 2018 (i.e the list heading into 2019) is top 4 capable. Very different.

 

[katmanblue]

If we finish in that position next year then may as well pack up,shut the doors and go home.This is the "gap"year next year is the start of the climb back.Gibbs certain to go,kreuzer is heart and soul,casboilt can be replaced,injuries are just bad luck can happen to anyone.Our draftees will have another 10-15 games full pre season build a tank and get bigger bodies.IMO we should get better.

See i think 2019 is the year we start to move up the table to 7-10th.

Also need to take into consideration the new fixtures. The higher you finish, the better the teams you play twice are. There is no guarantee that the climb up the ladder will be linear. More likely, it will take 2 years in each segment of the ladder (bottom, middle, top).

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ParapMarkets]

Hopper is a great talent, great in his draft year, but what he has shown in his AFL career so far, you can't be just OK with giving up a potential top 5 pick for him. I can't see how he would have more trade value than Marchbank, both picked at #6, both had promising starts at GWS albeit with injuries, however Marchbank has the KPP premium. Think SOS would be swinging a deal similar to Marchbank's last year.

Also if BSOS is going to be a first round talent and other clubs know about it, there's no doubt would be wanting to get a pick before they have to match Ben

I think Marchbank type value is exactly what we would be looking at. If he plays forward for the rest of the year I don't see his value increasing much beyond that.

One thing I am worried about is after North unsuccessfully flash all this money around for Kelly and Martin, they will likely turn some attention to Hopper, other teams like the Saints may well offer some nice cash his way too. A long way to go but hopefully we can get him.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I just told you. I'll put it this way, draft picks don't always = elite players. By continuously allowing them early picks we are increasing their chances of getting the most talented players on their list. Hopper will improve our list, but if they pick up someone better with that pick then we have missed the chance of having someone better while they improve their list even further.

You do realise that we have to beat them eventually right? How are we going to do that when they keep picking up the best youngsters?

We need to do what we can to improve our list the best way possible. GWS will be pillaged by all due to salary cap restrictions, they aren't going to be this unbeatable force that people seem to believe, we can't worry about what their list management are doing. SOS is targeting guys who he sees as quality but who won't cost an arm and a leg (like Kelly). If we can get a guy like Hopper for a pick in the teens it would be a fantastic result.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I'd be all over Hopper with our 2018 first. The bloke is a jet. We could potentially get some steak knives back, especially if we take a salary dump again (not sure there's many 'dud' Giants left).

There's no reason why that 2018 first can't end up being a pick around 8-12 with improvement, as well as academy and F/S selections. We can win the trade easily if we back ourselves to get better.

 

[gandaal]

If we finish in that position next year then may as well pack up,shut the doors and go home.This is the "gap"year next year is the start of the climb back.Gibbs certain to go,kreuzer is heart and soul,casboilt can be replaced,injuries are just bad luck can happen to anyone.Our draftees will have another 10-15 games full pre season build a tank and get bigger bodies.IMO we should get better.

Yeah let's give it all up when a year that we've been told, since the very first day Bolton walked through the door, was going to be a development year turns out to be (shock horror) a development year.

It may not end up that way, but it's completely acceptable if that's the way it turns out. In fact given the complete disaster that last year turned out to be I'd actually be amazed if we were ahead of schedule at this point.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We need to do what we can to improve our list the best way possible. GWS will be pillaged by all due to salary cap restrictions, they aren't going to be this unbeatable force that people seem to believe, we can't worry about what their list management are doing. SOS is targeting guys who he sees as quality but who won't cost an arm and a leg (like Kelly). If we can get a guy like Hopper for a pick in the teens it would be a fantastic result.

Hopper for a pick in the teens, sure I've got no issue with that at all. For pick #3 with Hopper and a pick in the late teens coming back, I'm not so keen on that.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Hopper is a great talent, great in his draft year, but what he has shown in his AFL career so far, you can't be just OK with giving up a potential top 5 pick for him. I can't see how he would have more trade value than Marchbank, both picked at #6, both had promising starts at GWS albeit with injuries, however Marchbank has the KPP premium. Think SOS would be swinging a deal similar to Marchbank's last year.

Also if BSOS is going to be a first round talent and other clubs know about it, there's no doubt would be wanting to get a pick before they have to match Ben

Spot on. We'd be foolish to waste our top pick on anything other than a star. We have to know what we're getting in order to be sure that it's the right move to trade it. Imagine we trade #3 for Hopper and then a kid who goes in the top 5 turns out to be better, it would be a disaster and set us back.

SOS has proven that he is very capable at the selection table, let's back his judgement again this year.

As for Ben, no club is going to be stupid enough to let him come to us cheap if he is an elite talented KPP of course they're going to want to pick him up.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think you have mis-read Jimmae. He wasn't suggesting we will be top 4 next year, he was saying the goal is that the list at the end of the trade/draft period of 2018 (i.e the list heading into 2019) is top 4 capable. Very different.

It would take a miracle for us to be top 4 capable going into 2019.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I'd be all over Hopper with our 2018 first. The bloke is a jet. We could potentially get some steak knives back, especially if we take a salary dump again (not sure there's many 'dud' Giants left).

There's no reason why that 2018 first can't end up being a pick around 8-12 with improvement, as well as academy and F/S selections. We can win the trade easily if we back ourselves to get better.

We're most likely losing Gibbs, Murph another year older. Our midfield is going to be worse next year before it gets better. Given that, highly unlikely that our first pick will fall between 8-12. More likely around the 4-7 range imo. We're 1 injury to Cripps away from it being a top 2 pick.

 

[HARKER]

It would take a miracle for us to be top 4 capable going into 2019.

What's a miracle? It may be unlikely but far from impossible.

We have 2 trade periods yet to go through, whilst getting games into the abundance of quality young men we have.
Lots what need to go right and for us to nail the next two trade periods and drafts, but it's possible.

The backline will be set. We'll surely have a few more quality mids by then, but the forward line......That's where JSilvagni will need to start kicking goals......Weitering to be come more consistent.....Charlie to be more dominant......and a couple of smalls that know what they're doing....and then Harry.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You're kidding yourself if you think clubs are going to let us have a free hit with BSOS.
Other clubs also know we will match the bid because we are getting a 25% discount

 

[Blue By Blood]

With the talk of the 2018 crop being much stronger (isn't it always?).. and bare with my I'm just spitballing an idea here.. would we be better off trading our first pick this year for two later firsts and then trading them for Hopper and Schache?

I realise it may take more to get those deals done potentially but they're both incredibly talented young kids (only slightly older than draftees this year) and since we've brought in so much through the draft the past 2 years it may be a better strategy age wise for our list.

We could then get back into the first round with what we get for Gibbs or if that crazy rumour about Lever is right, then we back SOS in to bring in another hidden gem or two like last years haul.

Keep our future picks and spend next year monitoring BSOS and potentially walking away a killer draft haul next year to put the cream on our rebuilding crop.

Yeah maybe I'm delusional this morning haha

 

[DangerousD]

Internally yes, we would hope to be challenging for the top 8 by 2019. But, other clubs may not be so optimistic about our climb up the ladder.

Do much water to go under the bridge with this scenario.

If we stink it up next year then the deal is realistic, if we have 8 plus wins then it becomes unrealistic.

I would trade our 2018 first for a top 10 2017 if it was attainable.

 

[DangerousD]

With the talk of the 2018 crop being much stronger (isn't it always?).. and bare with my I'm just spitballing an idea here.. would we be better off trading our first pick this year for two later firsts and then trading them for Hopper and Schache?

I realise it may take more to get those deals done potentially but they're both incredibly talented young kids (only slightly older than draftees this year) and since we've brought in so much through the draft the past 2 years it may be a better strategy age wise for our list.

We could then get back into the first round with what we get for Gibbs or if that crazy rumour about Lever is right, then we back SOS in to bring in another hidden gem or two like last years haul.

Keep our future picks and spend next year monitoring BSOS and potentially walking away a killer draft haul next year to put the cream on our rebuilding crop.

Yeah maybe I'm delusional this morning haha

Not so far fetched, makes sense.

I'll raise your idea and trade our 2018 1st if it gets us a top 10 2017 pick. I hate the yearly chat that next years draft is better, all that means I'm my opinion is you will get more in the later rounds.

 

[Blue__Balls]

You're kidding yourself if you think clubs are going to let us have a free hit with BSOS.
Other clubs also know we will match the bid because we are getting a 25% discount

Probably, but if he stays out of the spotlight and there is bugger-all form for opposition clubs to go off, nobody is going to risk a top 10 pick on him.

Seems to me that academy and father/son players attract a bid around or just after their pre-draft ranking. Clubs won't go early on a player just for shits and giggles. If Ben is rated around Pick 5, he'll be bid on between 5 and 10. If he's rated around Pick 30, it'll more likely be between 30 and 40. Where he's rated will be directly linked to how much good footy he displays in the next year and a bit, and as we've seen SOS is more than happy for his boys to play lower grades, knowing that they'll catch up pretty damn quick when they join the Blues.

 

[LanceRomance]

Probably, but if he stays out of the spotlight and there is bugger-all form for opposition clubs to go off, nobody is going to risk a top 10 pick on him.

Seems to me that academy and father/son players attract a bid around or just after their pre-draft ranking. Clubs won't go early on a player just for shits and giggles. If Ben is rated around Pick 5, he'll be bid on between 5 and 10. If he's rated around Pick 30, it'll more likely be between 30 and 40. Where he's rated will be directly linked to how much good footy he displays in the next year and a bit, and as we've seen SOS is more than happy for his boys to play lower grades, knowing that they'll catch up pretty damn quick when they join the Blues.

You reckon Dodoro doesn't know what's up?

 

[LordLucifer]

I think you have mis-read Jimmae. He wasn't suggesting we will be top 4 next year, he was saying the goal is that the list at the end of the trade/draft period of 2018 (i.e the list heading into 2019) is top 4 capable. Very different.

I understood what he was saying, just believe that whilst it would be great if it happened, we still have a lot of work to do to completely rebuild the list and being 'Top 4' capable heading into 2019 is somewhat unrealistic.

Sneaking into the Top 8 (ie. positions 6-8) in 2019 would be a good achievement by then.

 

[BIGGUS 64]

More chance of Jack Silvagni going to the Bombers.

****!! Don't even SAY that!!
The very thought gives me palpitations.