Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Red Bull]

Kreuzer turned 28 two weeks ago. Just entering his prime as a ruckman.

Kruezer's battered body is a ticking time bomb.
In any case , the decision is his as he can simply walk anywhere he chooses .

 

[Keyza]

Mark Stevens on channel 7 news just said that there is a little known trigger clause in Kreuzer's contract and he will meet it and play on at Carlton next year.

 

[Keyza]

Mark Stevens on channel 7 news just said that there is a little known trigger clause in Kreuzer's contract and he will meet it and play on at Carlton next year.

Jake Niall reporting it as well.

 

[HARKER]

Mark Stevens on channel 7 news just said that there is a little known trigger clause in Kreuzer's contract and he will meet it and play on at Carlton next year.

Found that trigger clause. Yep! That will do it every time.

 

[Malifice]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Band 1 - top 5% of salaries over 25
Band 3 - top 30% of salaries over 25

As a ruckman (with the removal of the 3rd man up rule, and they normally go for a premium and are the most traded commodity in the AFL), the increase in the EBA, and his current form, he should attract Band 2.

Band 2 is Pick 19, and even if he only attracted Band 3 we would get pick 21-22 based on current form.

I say take the top 25 pick and let him walk.

This just underscores why I think people have rocks in their head as to how the list is supposed to look at the end of 2018.

The job isnt done at 'the end of 2018'. We'll still need more draft successes and to lure quality free agents in both 2019 and 2020 (when we are finally competing for finals again).

We still have 4-5 A grade/ Elite mids, a gun key forward and a gun young ruckman to draft in over the next 3-4 years.

 

[Malifice]

The reality now is that rebuilds take 2-4 years depending on the state of the list and the current list management environment (concessions/establishment phases) and last maybe 4 in terms of being a premiership threat if your list stays relatively healthy.

The state of our list at the start of our rebuild was diabolical (in terms of gun young players) due to us blowing the past 7 years of drafting (and blowing pretty much every player selected at the draft over that period barring Cripps).

We aint gonna fix it with a 66 game rebuild. That 'reset' just gets us back to square one. We basically drew a line through the sand starting with the 2015 draft (+ Cripps and Docherty).

Its going to take more than 3-4 drafts/ years to both assemble and develop a list around those two.

The next two off-seasons are super-important for the re-birth of this club, and I expect us to go really hard after that and push for top 4. Murphy and co should be around for that, and if we don't quite make it, we'll still have acquisition opportunities if we quickly identify the decent players that don't quite work for us and shuffle them on.

You're off the mark. Murphy, Gibbs, Kruzer, Simpson etc are all superflous to our needs. They wont see finals with this club, let alone top 4. They had their time, played a few finals, and now for them, it's done. At present they serve as loyal placeholders, experienced heads, and mature bodies to shield the kids and stop us getting totally smashed each week. Thats it. Its sad, but its the truth.

They're all free agents when their contracts expire and are free to go elsewhere if they are unhappy with the way it is.

In case you didnt notice, we played something like 12 players under 22, and 8 teenagers on the weekend. Those players are going to need 3-4 seasons/ 50-100 games to develop. In addition to the development of the teenagers we do have, we still have serious holes in the list that need filling, such as the worst forward line in the competion (still) which needs some quality forward firepower, plus we need to replace a ton of seniority and class in the midfield (Gibbs, Simpson, Murphy, Curnow, Thomas, Kruezer). That is going to take several drafts (plus free agency) to fix. Then we are going to need 3 or so years of development for those players to get mature AFL bodies.

We wont be playing finals footy again till around 2020+. There will be no 'mini rise' off the backs of Gibbs and Murphy and the kids. You and FlowersByIrene are optimists, and I applaud you for that, but this is a time for realism and 'green shoots' and 'road map' and 'stay the course' and all that Bolton jazz.

We are looking to get the most talented side of under 25 year olds we can muster ready for 2020 onwards, which we can then supplement with free agents at this time.

Everything between now and then is simply drafting and developing those kids.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

 

[Semiod]

what about gibbs? will he stay

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

what about gibbs? will he stay

Doubt it. Will your lot put up a decent offer?

 

[Jimmae]

Id really be hoping we hold a big sum in 2018 and make a major play for GCS Tom Lynch, assuming he doesn't resign earlier.

At this point, we have the cap space upcoming to do both, but we might find ourselves needing to find a way to fill a small amount of it for one year.

Also keep in mind the current estimated difference between 100% TPP and 95% TPP in 2018 is about $750k, and that we'll be foregoing our 2016 cap savings to maintain that.

You really need to take your Carlton hat off for just a moment.

Yes the Hawks started their rebuild in 2004 and you are kidding yourself if you think otherwise

A rebuild in 2 years? Show me the club that has achieved that?

All your statements are based on theory, just show me one piece of evidence to back up your theory

No one yet, what I'm saying is that it's becoming achievable with the changes to free agency, live trading, the new academies and the breadth of the talent pool in recent years.

Look at what we've done in two drafts, and tell me you can't see how a team that has 4 or 5 aging stars can reload within two off-seasons. There are opportunities to re-stock quickly if certain clubs and certain club administrators get starry-eyed about certain players or opportunities.

The job isnt done at 'the end of 2018'.

I didn't say that.

We still have 4-5 A grade/ Elite mids, a gun key forward and a gun young ruckman to draft in over the next 3-4 years.

And what are we picking those with?

Your plan has us giving up more than Gibbs and Kreuzer before it's done. I reckon we'd get 4, maybe 5 on your checklist doing it your way, but we'll have given up two good pieces of the puzzle to effectively tread water.

At what point is it not better to go with what you have and use that opportunity to develop longer-term prospects without the pressure of picking for need?

 

[Red Bull]

what about gibbs? will he stay

Well that depends on Reid .
I'd imagine even an amateur like him would now realize Silvagni is serious ...

 

[HARKER]

How exactly did this trigger clause come into effect for Kreuzer?
Did the clause come about form the clubs initiative or did it come from the Kreuzer camp? I'm confused.

 

[TerryWallet]

So it looks like Kruezer is staying as a Blue. OK, that is sorted.

Now to try and get Hopper to come to us and for us to turn 28yo Gibbs into 20yo Hopper.

 

[Red Bull]

So it looks like Kruezer is staying as a Blue. OK, that is sorted.

Now to try and get Hopper to come to us and for us to turn 28yo Gibbs into 20yo Hopper.

Mail out of Adelaide suggests WC are massively into the younger McGovern .
Almost resigned to him leaving .
WC 1st rounder for McGovern .
WC 1st rounder on traded for Gibbs .
WC 1st rounder on traded for Hopper .

 

[Blue__Balls]

As a ruckman (with the removal of the 3rd man up rule, and they normally go for a premium and are the most traded commodity in the AFL), the increase in the EBA, and his current form, he should attract Band 2.

Band 2 is Pick 19, and even if he only attracted Band 3 we would get pick 21-22 based on current form.

I say take the top 25 pick and let him walk.



The job isnt done at 'the end of 2018'. We'll still need more draft successes and to lure quality free agents in both 2019 and 2020 (when we are finally competing for finals again).

We still have 4-5 A grade/ Elite mids, a gun key forward and a gun young ruckman to draft in over the next 3-4 years.

Hypothetically, say Martin, Fyfe and May leave their clubs as free agents. Potentially three Band 1 compensation picks slot into the first round. Add in a couple of round one academy picks.

Would you be as willing to part with Kreuzer if it was for Pick 24 or 27?

I'm just not sure we get enough out of that to justify the loss.

 

[Arr0w]

No one yet, what I'm saying is that it's becoming achievable with the changes to free agency, live trading, the new academies and the breadth of the talent pool in recent years.

You have digressed that many times, I am surprised you haven't brought up the Kennady assassination.

Of course no one has rebuilt a list in 2 years because it is near impossible. If you are basing our future success on this, you will be extremely disappointed.

So let's strip it back and go back to your original theory.

Do you still we have any control In keeping Kreuzer even if he decides to leave for a contract that is under our offer? Yes/No......... My answer has never changed = No

Do you think we should trade Gibbs for a mid 1st and a mid 2nd Yes/No....... My answer has never changed = Yes

Do you think the above trade will happen Yes/No...... My answer has never changed = Yes

Please just answer Yes or No, so we can both move on mate

 

[BigFrizz36]

Kruezer's battered body is a ticking time bomb.
In any case , the decision is his as he can simply walk anywhere he chooses .

Battered body - Ticking time bomb? Clearly he is in career best form - probably as a result of his body being in the best nick that its been in for a long time. Has missed 2 games in the last 2 years. Not sure that I agree with your comments.

 

[TerryWallet]

Mail out of Adelaide suggests WC are massively into the younger McGovern .
Almost resigned to him leaving .
WC 1st rounder for McGovern .
WC 1st rounder on traded for Gibbs .
WC 1st rounder on traded for Hopper .

I'd be happy with that. And it's not out of the realm of possibility to be as simple as that.

 

[passmark]

Battered body - Ticking time bomb? Clearly he is in career best form - probably as a result of his body being in the best nick that its been in for a long time. Has missed 2 games in the last 2 years. Not sure that I agree with your comments.

Good point that.

The facts are he could play for 5 more years or get a career ending injury tomorrow.

All bodies are ticking time bombs in footy.

 

[Red Bull]

Battered body - Ticking time bomb? Clearly he is in career best form - probably as a result of his body being in the best nick that its been in for a long time. Has missed 2 games in the last 2 years. Not sure that I agree with your comments.

Hope you're right mate .
He deserves a fair go .

 

[ParapMarkets]

You have digressed that many times, I am surprised you haven't brought up the Kennady assassination.

Of course no one has rebuilt a list in 2 years because it is near impossible. If you are basing our future success on this, you will be extremely disappointed.

So let's strip it back and go back to your original theory.

Do you still we have any control In keeping Kreuzer even if he decides to leave for a contract that is under our offer? Yes/No......... My answer has never changed = No

Do you think we should trade Gibbs for a mid 1st and a mid 2nd Yes/No....... My answer has never changed = Yes

Do you think the above trade will happen Yes/No...... My answer has never changed = Yes

Please just answer Yes or No, so we can both move on mate

I'd suggest that with his reported trigger clause we absolutely have control in keeping Kreuzer.

 

[Wickzki]

Thank **** for that.. Good onya Matty K.

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

I hope we keep Kruez and Gibbs.
Wouldn't bother me if we lost Murph.
I've been driving the Tom Lynch bus since the day he was drafted.
I believe we have almost zero chance of getting him.
Watch the Pies throw the keys to the city at him.

 

[Wickzki]

How exactly did this trigger clause come into effect for Kreuzer?
Did the clause come about form the clubs initiative or did it come from the Kreuzer camp? I'm confused.

From what it looks like it's clearly a number of games based trigger similar to Daisy. He's been healthy and so he's going to trigger the clause.

Probably agreed by both sides but would appear to be more likely a club initiative. Probably feel that if his injuries persisted then his career would be over by this point. However, his form and health have been better than expected.

The question that I have is did he play through injuries last year in fear that he wouldn't trigger it? He did come back early from an injury, didn't he?

 

[LanceRomance]

As a ruckman (with the removal of the 3rd man up rule, and they normally go for a premium and are the most traded commodity in the AFL), the increase in the EBA, and his current form, he should attract Band 2.

Band 2 is Pick 19, and even if he only attracted Band 3 we would get pick 21-22 based on current form.

I say take the top 25 pick and let him walk.



The job isnt done at 'the end of 2018'. We'll still need more draft successes and to lure quality free agents in both 2019 and 2020 (when we are finally competing for finals again).

We still have 4-5 A grade/ Elite mids, a gun key forward and a gun young ruckman to draft in over the next 3-4 years.

We are likely going to lose Gibbs.... Why should we lose Kruezer as well?

Our midfield will be beyond shizenhaus next year