Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[F_therest]

So say we add Hopper via Gibbs, Lynch via free agency, draft Darcy Fogarty;

I can eventually seeing that become a best 18 of:

FB: Plowman - Weitering - Macreadie
HB: Docherty - Marchbank - Byrne
C: Petrevski-Seton - Cripps - Williamson
HF: Curnow - Lynch - Cuningham
FF: Silvagni - McKay - Pickett
RU: Kreuzer - Fogarty - Hopper

Somewhere over the

Lynch? He's not a FA till next year and would cost shitloads. GC will absolutely match to force a trade like Adelaide did with Dangerfield.

 

[Red Bull]

So say we add Hopper via Gibbs, Lynch via free agency, draft Darcy Fogarty;

I can eventually seeing that become a best 18 of:

FB: Plowman - Weitering - Macreadie
HB: Docherty - Marchbank - Byrne
C: Petrevski-Seton - Cripps - Williamson
HF: Curnow - Lynch - Cuningham
FF: Silvagni - McKay - Pickett
RU: Kreuzer - Fogarty - Hopper

Somewhere over the

Get greedy mate
Add Shiel via FA and B.Silvagni via F/S draft discount .

 

[Wickzki]

Lynch? He's not a FA till next year and would cost shitloads. GC will absolutely match to force a trade like Adelaide did with Dangerfield.

I didn't mean straight away as in 2018. I meant in the future.

Lynch will leave GCS. He's put up with enough of their b/s.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Well at least that puts that discussion to rest, finally!!

Given his contract is under market value, everyone should be happy.

So the next question is, if he is open to a trade and we get a resonable offer, do we consider trading him? My answer is YES

That puts us in a power position if would be suitors come a callin

 

[DangerousD]

Hypothetically, say Martin, Fyfe and May leave their clubs as free agents. Potentially three Band 1 compensation picks slot into the first round. Add in a couple of round one academy picks.

Would you be as willing to part with Kreuzer if it was for Pick 24 or 27?

I'm just not sure we get enough out of that to justify the loss.

May isn't a FA

 

[Blue__Balls]

May isn't a FA

Yeah, you're absolutely right. He's been with GC since 2010, and with the speculation about Hawthorn being into him I figured it was as a Free Agent seeing as they don't really have anything to offer by way of a trade.

Either way, Band 2 or 3 compo for us could well be diluted a bit with big names like Martin and Fyfe on the move, as well as a handful of academy picks. Can't see Pick 25 being seen as fair compensation for Kreuzer.

 

[Wickzki]

Either way, Band 2 or 3 compo for us could well be diluted a bit with big names like Martin and Fyfe on the move, as well as a handful of academy picks. Can't see Pick 25 being seen as fair compensation for Kreuzer.

Thankfully with the trigger we don't need to be concerned with that. Was never going to leave anyway.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

We will play finals next year.

AFL is a cut throat industry and I don't think SOS and co are planning on finals from 2020.

2018-19 would be the plan.

Bulldogs had 8 players with less than 50 games in the grand final. If we were to play the same team as the one against north every game until next years finals, we will only have 4 players with less than 50 games.

Gibbs will be 29, Kruezer will be 29, Murphy will be 31.

Byrne, Cripps, Graham, Docherty, Plowman will be 23-24

SPS, Weitering, Macreadie, Silvagni, Williamson, Fisher will be roughly the same age as Boyd, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel, McLean, Dunkley and Cordy were in the GF

Curnow, Marchbank and Cuningham will be the same age as Lachie Hunter, Stringer and Jack Macrae

this isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.

the success of the 2016 draft certainly looks to have put us ahead of schedule.

when teams get it right there are many examples of very rapid improvement. in 3 years port adelaide went from a total basket case to a few points of a GF. and of course there's the bulldogs who in 2014 wouldn't have been much better than we are now. giants probably should have won the flag last year but 2 years before that they were 16th with %78.

in fact the rebuilds that seem to bear fruit at the end gather momentum very quickly. not very often a team goes from 14th to 1st over 6-7 years, it generally happens very quickly or not at all.

but we are coming from a long way back. the first year of our rebuild was just damage repair before building had even commenced.

 

[F_therest]

this isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.

the success of the 2016 draft certainly looks to have put us ahead of schedule.

when teams get it right there are many examples of very rapid improvement. in 3 years port adelaide went from a total basket case to a few points of a GF. and of course there's the bulldogs who in 2014 wouldn't have been much better than we are now. giants probably should have won the flag last year but 2 years before that they were 16th with %78.

in fact the rebuilds that seem to bear fruit at the end gather momentum very quickly. not very often a team goes from 14th to 1st over 6-7 years, it generally happens very quickly or not at all.

but we are coming from a long way back. the first year of our rebuild was just damage repair before building had even commenced.

I don't expect to play finals next year.
9-12 would be a good result purely looking at wins, but within that there will be many more positives in terms of further growth from our young kids.

Given the rate at which we're improving, i'd basically expect us to play finals in 2019 and sneak into the 8.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Mail out of Adelaide suggests WC are massively into the younger McGovern .
Almost resigned to him leaving .
WC 1st rounder for McGovern .
WC 1st rounder on traded for Gibbs .
WC 1st rounder on traded for Hopper .

If this is the case you would think that Adelaide will give us whatever is the later pick. Assuming WC have say pick 12 and Adelaide pick 16, they would offer us the pick 16 and keep the higher one for themselves.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

We will play finals next year.

AFL is a cut throat industry and I don't think SOS and co are planning on finals from 2020.

2018-19 would be the plan.

Bulldogs had 8 players with less than 50 games in the grand final. If we were to play the same team as the one against north every game until next years finals, we will only have 4 players with less than 50 games.

Gibbs will be 29, Kruezer will be 29, Murphy will be 31.

Byrne, Cripps, Graham, Docherty, Plowman will be 23-24

SPS, Weitering, Macreadie, Silvagni, Williamson, Fisher will be roughly the same age as Boyd, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel, McLean, Dunkley and Cordy were in the GF

Curnow, Marchbank and Cuningham will be the same age as Lachie Hunter, Stringer and Jack Macrae

Not a chance. I will put a $100 on the table that we don't even make it out of the bottom 8.

 

[My name geoff]

this isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.

the success of the 2016 draft certainly looks to have put us ahead of schedule.

when teams get it right there are many examples of very rapid improvement. in 3 years port adelaide went from a total basket case to a few points of a GF. and of course there's the bulldogs who in 2014 wouldn't have been much better than we are now. giants probably should have won the flag last year but 2 years before that they were 16th with %78.

in fact the rebuilds that seem to bear fruit at the end gather momentum very quickly. not very often a team goes from 14th to 1st over 6-7 years, it generally happens very quickly or not at all.

but we are coming from a long way back. the first year of our rebuild was just damage repair before building had even commenced.

If you listen to opposition supporters, you hear quite a bit of 'that's the last time *insert team* will beat Carlton for a while'
I tend to agree with this sentiment.

Can anyone here say with confidence that Essendon, Collingwood, North, Richmond, Freo, Brisbane, Saints, Melb, Swans, Hawks will beat us next year? Look at how we played them with 10-11 players aged 19-21, next year this group of players will be 20-22 y.o. with 30-60 games under their belts.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I dearly hope Kruzer is over his injury curse and be the no 1 ruck for us in next 5 years.

To build a sustain success we need honorable, loyal club men like Kruezers, Murphys, Docs, Simmos around etc to lead the young shoots on and off field.

We already have a great bunch of talented kids coming in from last two years and rest asure that SOS is not resting on his laurels but working hard in hauling in the next lots thru shrewd tradings and draftings.

I think rebuilding is quicker now with FA and smart list/salary managing.

Far from convinced he even has five years left. When he fades, I expect it will be rapid.

 

[ParapMarkets]

If this is the case you would think that Adelaide will give us whatever is the later pick. Assuming WC have say pick 12 and Adelaide pick 16, they would offer us the pick 16 and keep the higher one for themselves.

You would also think that SOS would take the better pick for a contracted player. I think you seriously overrate draft picks and underestimate how difficult it is to recruit a player of Gibbs quality. In that scenario the higher pick would provide SOS more bargaining power with GWS.

 

[ParapMarkets]

If you listen to opposition supporters, you hear quite a bit of 'that's the last time *insert team* will beat Carlton for a while'
I tend to agree with this sentiment.

Can anyone here say with confidence that Essendon, Collingwood, North, Richmond, Freo, Brisbane, Saints, Melb, Swans, Hawks will beat us next year? Look at how we played them with 10-11 players aged 19-21, next year this group of players will be 20-22 y.o. with 30-60 games under their belts.

I can't say with confidence that we will beat those teams. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, kids are showing promise but there is a long way to go.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

You would also think that SOS would take the better pick for a contracted player. I think you seriously overrate draft picks and underestimate how difficult it is to recruit a player of Gibbs quality. In that scenario the higher pick would provide SOS more bargaining power with GWS.

FWIW I have never rated Gibbs as highly as some here do, as I have said numerous times. I don't believe I over rate draft picks, but IMO, some Carlton supporters clearly over rate Gibbs. I certainly don't think he is the be all and end all of our future midfield success. However, you would think SOS would be happy with the later pick, especially if they pony up a player as well, or an alternate scenario where we send Gibbs and our third for Adelaide's own later pick and their second as well. While they keep WC better pick. SOS isn't knocking that back.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

If you listen to opposition supporters, you hear quite a bit of 'that's the last time *insert team* will beat Carlton for a while'
I tend to agree with this sentiment.

Can anyone here say with confidence that Essendon, Collingwood, North, Richmond, Freo, Brisbane, Saints, Melb, Swans, Hawks will beat us next year? Look at how we played them with 10-11 players aged 19-21, next year this group of players will be 20-22 y.o. with 30-60 games under their belts.

Yes, I think anyone can say, with confidence, that some of those teams will beat us next year.

 

[My name geoff]

I can't say with confidence that we will beat those teams. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, kids are showing promise but there is a long way to go.

The thing is we have a weapon which makes me confident that we will beat those teams; Brendan Bolton.

The biggest thing that is going unnoticed is that pretty much every player on our list improves under Bolton (injury aside)

I can only think of a couple who have regressed, but it may just be a case of other players have gone past them I.e Kerridge, Armfield.

Another pre-season with the same rate of improvement for all players and we could explode next year. I mean, we've been fawning over Liam Jones which no one ever would have predicted last year, but Bolton is getting the best out of him.

He's turning players who many thought had no future in the game into valuable members of the team. Who would have thought Casboult, Rowe, Graham would take their game to the level they have this year?

A full year with Bolton's continual raising the standards and expectation of the players, into a solid preseason and I'm bullish about next season.

 

[ParapMarkets]

FWIW I have never rated Gibbs as highly as some here do, as I have said numerous times. I don't believe I over rate draft picks, but IMO, some Carlton supporters clearly over rate Gibbs. I certainly don't think he is the be all and end all of our future midfield success. However, you would think SOS would be happy with the later pick, especially if they pony up a player as well, or an alternate scenario where we send Gibbs and our third for Adelaide's own later pick and their second as well. While they keep WC better pick. SOS isn't knocking that back.

I know you don't like/rate Gibbs, I remember your posts in the trade period. Personally I think he will be gone at the end of the year, but I think SOS showed last trade period how much he rates him and I think if Adelaide got Gibbs for say pick 14 and some steak knife then they are the winners. He will play on for many years imo.

You don't think you overrate draft picks but have a look at the success rate of the selections we are looking at. If Gibbs wants to go and we have a solid plan in place (like getting Hopper) then I'm sure it will happen but I'm sure SOS doesn't underestimate how difficult it is to recruit A-grade talent with picks in the teens.

 

[ParapMarkets]

The thing is we have a weapon which makes me confident that we will beat those teams; Brendan Bolton.

The biggest thing that is going unnoticed is that pretty much every player on our list improves under Bolton (injury aside)

I can only think of a couple who have regressed, but it may just be a case of other players have gone past them I.e Kerridge, Armfield.

Another pre-season with the same rate of improvement for all players and we could explode next year. I mean, we've been fawning over Liam Jones which no one ever would have predicted last year, but Bolton is getting the best out of him.

He's turning players who many thought had no future in the game into valuable members of the team. Who would have thought Casboult, Rowe, Graham would take their game to the level they have this year?

A full year with Bolton's continual raising the standards and expectation of the players, into a solid preseason and I'm bullish about next season.

At the end of the day we will finish 2nd or 3rd last this year. Big call to be predicting finals next year. People's opinions can change very quickly, a lot of these kids will tire as the year progresses. Unless we go for some big name trades/fa's this trade period, like Fyfe or Martin (which seems very unlikely at the moment), I can't see us playing finals next year.

 

[djw1952]

I'd be happy with that. And it's not out of the realm of possibility to be as simple as that.

I still think the crows should have to give more........like their second rounder as well.

 

[djw1952]

FWIW I have never rated Gibbs as highly as some here do, as I have said numerous times. I don't believe I over rate draft picks, but IMO, some Carlton supporters clearly over rate Gibbs. I certainly don't think he is the be all and end all of our future midfield success. However, you would think SOS would be happy with the later pick, especially if they pony up a player as well, or an alternate scenario where we send Gibbs and our third for Adelaide's own later pick and their second as well. While they keep WC better pick. SOS isn't knocking that back.

At least Gibbs has the runs on the board.......a draft pick does not, and cannot be relied upon......Gibbs can!!! SOS has been great with his choices in the draft but some kids just don`t work out no matter what, and why give up someone who helps nurture the kids we have already. It`s not just about future it`s now as well and even if the kid we get turns out ok we still have to wait for them to get experience and you still need leaders while they do..........remember what happened to the dees when they got rid of all their experienced guys at once...........BUST!!!

 

[Malifice]

And what are we picking those with?

By my count, pre-2020, we have a first round pick this year, next year, and 2019. Two of those picks are likely to be top three picks, and the third a top 10. Add in another 1st for pick for trading Gibbs.

We will also have two second round picks, and a free agency compensation pick at a roundabout pick 20 for losing Kruezer. On top of that we will have three third rounders that will likely be quite low.

Over three years we should have something in the vicinity of picks 2, 3, 7, 17, 19, 21, 25, 39, 41 and 43 to play with, and that's our first, second and third round picks (Plus pick 17 for Gibbs visit and pick 19 for Kruezer). Add in a free agent in 2018 and another one in 2019.

Out of all those picks and free agents we need to manufacture half a dozen A grade midfielders, one elite key forward and one Ruckman (to pair with our current players aged 23 and younger). Out of those eight players we also need to manufacture at least one, and preferably two marquee players (players of the calibre of Buddy or Dangerfield). It will be a mammoth task to get us ready by 2020.

Like I have been saying all along, we won't be ready for a serious finals tilt until 2020, and even then only if we nail almost all of our picks.

 

[Red Bull]

If this is the case you would think that Adelaide will give us whatever is the later pick. Assuming WC have say pick 12 and Adelaide pick 16, they would offer us the pick 16 and keep the higher one for themselves.

In that scenario ,
If the latter pick is enough to on trade for Hopper then no problem .
If GWS demand a lower pick , Silvagni will explain this to the amateur Reid , request the lower pick , and this time around you would expect the amateur to understand that Silvagni is not bluffing .

 

[Blue_Fusion]

At least Gibbs has the runs on the board.......a draft pick does not, and cannot be relied upon......Gibbs can!!! SOS has been great with his choices in the draft but some kids just don`t work out no matter what, and why give up someone who helps nurture the kids we have already. It`s not just about future it`s now as well and even if the kid we get turns out ok we still have to wait for them to get experience and you still need leaders while they do..........remember what happened to the dees when they got rid of all their experienced guys at once...........BUST!!!

Their 'leaders' were no good and their draft choices weren't great either. Watts over Nic Nat for example. Didnt help that Scully left.