Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Blue_Fusion]

If you listen to opposition supporters, you hear quite a bit of 'that's the last time *insert team* will beat Carlton for a while'
I tend to agree with this sentiment.

Can anyone here say with confidence that Essendon, Collingwood, North, Richmond, Freo, Brisbane, Saints, Melb, Swans, Hawks will beat us next year? Look at how we played them with 10-11 players aged 19-21, next year this group of players will be 20-22 y.o. with 30-60 games under their belts.

We won't be making finals until we greatly improve our midfield.

Delivery is average I suspect with Gibbs leaving it'll get worse before it gets better.

Defensive pressure sometimes non existent which is why we rely heavily on our backline to repel opposition attacks.

We need another tough inside mid to help Cripps and 2 speedsters. All of them need to have exceptional disposal by foot in particular.

 

[rp84]

How many 30 year old veteran players do we need on the provisio we are holding on to Gibbs, Kruezer, Murphy, Simpson, Thomas, Rowe, Ed Curnow, White, ASOS, Wright etc for experience? . That's almost a quarter of the list as it is before we add in players in their mid 20's. Pretty sure Barass said the age profile we are looking at is 20 - 25 years this trade period.

Most people are saying gibbs will go, MK might go, rowe might only get a rookie contract, ASOS is only a stop gap (very good one for maybe 2 years). Thomas will probably get a cheap 1 yr contract to remain as a leader.

If a good leader is available on the cheap, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two older players picked up for veteran leadership.

Of course we will aim at the 18-23yo group for marquee players but we need to keep on some decent cheap veteran leadership

 

[I AM CARLTON]

I didn't mean straight away as in 2018. I meant in the future.

Lynch will leave GCS. He's put up with enough of their b/s.

Gold Coast are ahead of us on the ladder....

 

[I AM CARLTON]

If you listen to opposition supporters, you hear quite a bit of 'that's the last time *insert team* will beat Carlton for a while'
I tend to agree with this sentiment.

Can anyone here say with confidence that Essendon, Collingwood, North, Richmond, Freo, Brisbane, Saints, Melb, Swans, Hawks will beat us next year? Look at how we played them with 10-11 players aged 19-21, next year this group of players will be 20-22 y.o. with 30-60 games under their belts.

I actually think the swans will rebound quickly they have a very young team also with some great talent.

Also Melbourne has some elite talent.

 

[My name geoff]

We won't be making finals until we greatly improve our midfield.

Delivery is average I suspect with Gibbs leaving it'll get worse before it gets better.

Defensive pressure sometimes non existent which is why we rely heavily on our backline to repel opposition attacks.

We need another tough inside mid to help Cripps and 2 speedsters. All of them need to have exceptional disposal by foot in particular.

This doesn't factor in the improvement of SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Curnow and possibly Williamson as midfielders. As 20-21 y.o. next season, these guys will be the same age as lachie Hunter, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel were last year and as such I am confident they can have similar impact.

These guys should all be averaging over 20 disposals per game next year the way they are tracking, and along with Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Ed, Graham should see our midfield be greatly improved.

These guys are currently only averaging around 10 disposals per game and we are taking it up to sides until halfway in the last quarter in every game bar 1.

Bolton will have this side humming round 1 next year.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Problems with a proposal like that

1. You're forcing the team receiving to trade.
2. Team acquiring pick gains long-term value

For example, Brisbane get pick 11 last year. Instead of Melbourne trading 48 and 66 for Lewis, 57 and 58 Hawthorn move him to Brisbane for pick 11.

Why do Brisbane do it? Because Lewis sure enough would help them in the short term. Further, pick 11 isn't worth pick 11 to Brisbane. It's worth less because they must trade the pick. On the other hand, pick 11 is worth pick 11 to Hawthorn. At the same time it screws every other club picking beyond pick 11 worse than if Brisbane just had the pick. Further, in that scenario, instead of Hawthorn having to give their 2017 first round pick to St. Kilda to secure the extra pick for O'Meara they would have gotten it in the Lewis trade.

Hawthorn would have preferred to send Lewis to Brisbane for the better pick. Maybe Lewis even prefers Brisbane over Melbourne who would potentially be willing to pay him an absurd amount of money in the short term.

Ultimately, I see such a system benefiting strong teams rebuild while still contending. This year, for example, GWS could trade Ryan Griffen or West Coast a Mark LeCras for that pick. The loss of a player whose almost over the hill but would fit the "benefits priority pick club in the short term" club but whose loss wouldn't make a dramatic difference to the success of the departing club while also benefiting the departing club by replacing the player with a better long-term solution. Both teams benefit at the expense of the 16 other clubs. It keeps the rich richer while not benefiting the struggling club long-term.

It's a nice idea in theory but there's massive negative implications of such a system.

Hmmm I see what you're saying and it is definitely one way it could play out. However there are also many other ways it could play out.

Example: Brisbane could trade pick 11 to GWS for Hopper.

In a free market, there's always going to be the risk of downside. However in the Lewis situation, you're assuming no other club is going to pony up for a pick 11. The other clubs only ALL lose if they choose to do nothing.

 

[BluesRule]

If the salary cap increases by $2m this year from $10m to $12m per team as mooted, what are the implications for the CFC list?

1. is having so many players not in contract a risk for CFC - or just a great trade opportunity?

2. Does it make our 'free' salary cap space less of a bargaining tool to win trades?

3. Does it allow our fringe uncontracted players the ability to get better than normal contracts as we need to hit 95% of the new cap?

4. And will it mean that a Fyfe/Dusty deal hits new record highs ($1.6m pa?) as Clubs use the space for short term gain?

Interested in peoples thoughts as this could greatly change this years trade landscape.

 

[ShanDog]

This doesn't factor in the improvement of SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Curnow and possibly Williamson as midfielders. As 20-21 y.o. next season, these guys will be the same age as lachie Hunter, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel were last year and as such I am confident they can have similar impact.

These guys should all be averaging over 20 disposals per game next year the way they are tracking, and along with Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Ed, Graham should see our midfield be greatly improved.

These guys are currently only averaging around 10 disposals per game and we are taking it up to sides until halfway in the last quarter in every game bar 1.

Bolton will have this side humming round 1 next year.

Half of those guys have only just become legally able to buy beer. I think those who are looking for big leaps in performance from the recent draftees next year are getting ahead of themselves.

It's going to be a while before we compete with the best teams, and the 10+ year players who provide the experience and leadership we have now won't be around. Those are significant holes to fill that will take time.

 

[LanceRomance]

If the salary cap increases by $2m this year from $10m to $12m per team as mooted, what are the implications for the CFC list?

1. is having so many players not in contract a risk for CFC - or just a great trade opportunity?

2. Does it make our 'free' salary cap space less of a bargaining tool to win trades?

3. Does it allow our fringe uncontracted players the ability to get better than normal contracts as we need to hit 95% of the new cap?

4. And will it mean that a Fyfe/Dusty deal hits new record highs ($1.6m pa?) as Clubs use the space for short term gain?

Interested in peoples thoughts as this could greatly change this years trade landscape.

The players can get the CPI increase like the rest of us mooks

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

We won't be making finals until we greatly improve our midfield.

Delivery is average I suspect with Gibbs leaving it'll get worse before it gets better.

Defensive pressure sometimes non existent which is why we rely heavily on our backline to repel opposition attacks.

We need another tough inside mid to help Cripps and 2 speedsters. All of them need to have exceptional disposal by foot in particular.

that's because we have a number of first year players running through there which they simply don't have the engine to do properly yet. so the established players have to pick up the slack so out midfielder really bats 5 deep instead of the 8-9 it really needs to. it's simply impossible to sustain a 4 quarter effort with that midfield age configuration, and we haven't. next year with another preseason into SPS, fisher, curnow, cuningham and williamson that won't be the case.

 

[Stamos]

However, you would think SOS would be happy with the later pick, especially if they pony up a player as well, or an alternate scenario where we send Gibbs and our third for Adelaide's own later pick and their second as well. W.

Why on earth would we be adding our 3rd rounder to the deal?

 

[rp84]

It would be great if fyfe and Martin were two years younger. We could probably afford to match any offer mooted in the media..to both of them. Turn 27 next year though. Just out of our range.

 

[teknodeejay]

Kerridge was probably hoped to step up and assist midfield duties while younger more skilled people developed but it hasn't worked out that way yet. Ditto Smedts.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I don't expect to play finals next year.
9-12 would be a good result purely looking at wins, but within that there will be many more positives in terms of further growth from our young kids.

Given the rate at which we're improving, i'd basically expect us to play finals in 2019 and sneak into the 8.

in all probability we won't play finals.

but what we're doing at the moment is driven largely by the senior players, the young players are showing flashes but apart from the defenders the young players in the team are almost passengers at this point. and there hasn't been much between us and the 10 or so sides above us. the improvement from another preseason into our first and second year players should give them more of an ability to impact games consistently and if we don't lose any senior players then it's not hard to see us making a tremendous leap next year.

of course we're thinking long term so if we cash in on some senior players then that obviously won't be the case.

 

[My name geoff]

At the end of the day we will finish 2nd or 3rd last this year. Big call to be predicting finals next year. People's opinions can change very quickly, a lot of these kids will tire as the year progresses. Unless we go for some big name trades/fa's this trade period, like Fyfe or Martin (which seems very unlikely at the moment), I can't see us playing finals next year.

I see us sticking with the same formula in the off season. Build through the draft, recruit low risk/high reward players through trades.

Say Silvagni replicates his efforts of the past two off-seasons and recruits another 6 players who can slot into the 22 if needed. Lets try and visualize what our list will look like in 2018 if at the end of the season we recruit an equivalent of our first year players this year:

(v.1) = first year equivalent
(v.2) = player in his second year
bolded = age next year

Simpson34 Silvagni30 Byrne23
Docherty24 Marchbank21(v.2) Plowman23
Cuningham21 Cripps23 Williamson19(v.2)
Curnow21 Casboult28 Fisher20(v.2)
SPS19(v.1) Weitering20 SPS20(v.2)

Kruezer29 Murphy30 Gibbs29

Int from: Silvagni20 Williamson18(v.1) Macreadie20(v.2) Macreadie19(v.1) Marchbank20(v.1) Ed28 Wright28 Mckay20 Polson20(v.2) Polson19(v.1) Pickett21(v.2) Pickett20(v.1) Fisher19(v.1)

The rest: Sumner24 Phillips26 Smedts26 Kerridge25 Lamb25 Jaksch23 Jones27 Boekhorst24

If we take this projection as a possible outcome, our team will have 2 exceptional teenagers, Simpson over 30 and the rest of the team aged between 20 and 30. The bottom half of our list will also have a number of role players available in the 24-27 age bracket. *I am projecting that these players will be useful as Bolton is proving he can get the best out of players

As we have seen with the bulldogs last 2 years, this age profile is more than capable of playing finals.

Here is the Bulldogs first finals team and their age at the time:

Hamling22 Roberts22 Morris32
Murphy33 Wood26 Boyd33
honeychurch20 macrae21 jong22
Dalhaus23 Grant26 Dickson28
Hunter20 Stringer21 Picken29


minson30 Bontempelli19 Wallis22

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

At least Gibbs has the runs on the board.......a draft pick does not, and cannot be relied upon......Gibbs can!!! SOS has been great with his choices in the draft but some kids just don`t work out no matter what, and why give up someone who helps nurture the kids we have already. It`s not just about future it`s now as well and even if the kid we get turns out ok we still have to wait for them to get experience and you still need leaders while they do..........remember what happened to the dees when they got rid of all their experienced guys at once...........BUST!!!

We aren't getting rid of all our experienced guys, we are talking about just one here, Gibbs.

 

[Malifice]

This doesn't factor in the improvement of SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Curnow and possibly Williamson as midfielders. As 20-21 y.o. next season, these guys will be the same age as lachie Hunter, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel were last year and as such I am confident they can have similar impact.

Current projections factor that most of those you named 'come on' to be A grade players.

Even should that happen, the playing list is still short, and 22-23 y/olds dont win flags let alone a side comprising 8 or 9 20 year olds. They need at least 50-100 games of playing togeher the be a force. And not 50-100 games of playing together and getting flogged by 60+; they need to be in those games to their eyeballs (this is why we have retained senior players and not gone 'full Melbourne').

That said we still need more talent to replace the older guys who wont be around when the window opens. Most of those players you named are playing alongside (Murphy, Gibbs, Thomas, Kruezer, Simpson, E Curnow, Casboult, ASOS and until recently, Rowe) all of whom we need to find replacements for who are just as good (or better). Thats nine players. We also need to stengthen the forward line (our worst line), while keeping an eye towards replacements for those nine players (most of whom play in the midfield).

That will take another 3 years of drafting to achieve. At least. Assuming we nail every pick. Replacing those players named with players of even equal qaulity will be a tall mountain to achieve in 3 years if you think about it.

Bolton will have this side humming round 1 next year.

That is simply crazy talk. There is no way we can come from blowing all our draft picks for 7 years (barring Cripps), and fixing that in 2 drafts and suddenly be competing again.

We are resetting this list. This year its 22-23 years and under. If you're over that reset 'line' you're a placeholder and nothign more.

The plan has never been to aquire a bunch of kids to play alongside Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer and help the latter push for a flag assault. The plan is to retain those senior blokes (Murph, Gibbs and MK) while we 'reset' the list with kids. The older blokes are just there to protect the kids while we get them in.

We are aiming to assemble a side that will be flag competitive by 2020 and will remain so for the 5 years that follow. The only value the senior players have is experience and hard AFL bodies that prevent us getting utterly flogged; and buy us time to aquire replacements via the draft.

They wont play finals again, and they wont be part of 17. Thats just the reality of what we are doing. They exist to stop our kids from getting smashed and destroying our culture. They are placeholders.

We are (like the Saints and Dogs before us) in a position to strategically lose a player or two each year for draft picks (not gut the list like Melbourne did - which set them back 10 years).

This year Gibbs will depart for a 1st round draft pick. Its possible (probable even) that one of Casboult or Kruezer leaves as a free agent (although there is the rumor that MK has a contract extension which complciates the matter).

We need to find 8 A grade players, at least 2-3 of whom are elite over the next 3 draft/ trade periods to get the list into its final shape for 2020. The more draft picks we get in, the greater our chances of uncovering a future star, and the more currency we have to trade in blokes we need.

Not all the players we pick will make the grade. Not even all 1st rounders we pick will. But we need to:

1) Maximise our presence at the pointy end of the draft
2) Draft wisely and nail our picks
3) Acquire a 60 goal a year forward as our number 1 drafting priority
4) Acquire 5-6 gun A grade/ elite midfielders as our number 2 priority (to replace Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Curnow, Thomas)
5) Acquire 1 gun ruckman to replace Kruezer

And we have 3 drafts/trades to get this done. All player traded in must by 23 and under (this year) with that 'line' increasing by 1 year each year (24 and under is the age profile next year, and 25 and under is the age profile in 2019). We will focus on the draft, get in the kids, and use a massive warchest for free agents in 2018 and 2019 to plug any remaining holes.

2020 is when we will be competing. Till then, 'green shoots' and 'road map'.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Most people are saying gibbs will go, MK might go, rowe might only get a rookie contract, ASOS is only a stop gap (very good one for maybe 2 years). Thomas will probably get a cheap 1 yr contract to remain as a leader.

If a good leader is available on the cheap, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two older players picked up for veteran leadership.

Of course we will aim at the 18-23yo group for marquee players but we need to keep on some decent cheap veteran leadership

I get what you are saying, but if I had to make a call on the five names you mentioned, I would expect only one of them to leave. Gibbs. The way ASOS is playing I would expect a contract on the main list for him next year. I don't think we will be losing as much experience as people are suggesting, so I'm not certain we need to bringing in much more myself.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

This doesn't factor in the improvement of SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Curnow and possibly Williamson as midfielders. As 20-21 y.o. next season, these guys will be the same age as lachie Hunter, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel were last year and as such I am confident they can have similar impact.

These guys should all be averaging over 20 disposals per game next year the way they are tracking, and along with Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Ed, Graham should see our midfield be greatly improved.

These guys are currently only averaging around 10 disposals per game and we are taking it up to sides until halfway in the last quarter in every game bar 1.

Bolton will have this side humming round 1 next year.

I'm all for being positive about our young players, but you are assuming a hell of a lot in regards to them. Expecting them to go from averaging 10 disposals a game to 20 disposals a game next year is a massive jump indeed, and unrealistic IMO. There are many factors that you haven't really thought of which will effect each of them in different ways. Suggesting that they should be averaging 20 disposals a game is most unrealistic and unfair on them.

 

[Malifice]

If the salary cap increases by $2m this year from $10m to $12m per team as mooted, what are the implications for the CFC list?

We will lock in the kids (C Curnow, Mckay etc) on heavily frontloaded contracts. Probably extend a few like Plowman, Machbank, Docherty etc.

That leaves us with a massive 'warchest' come 2018 and 2019 to pay for Cripps and Weitering when they come out of contract, and to land a free agent or two (and to dangle in front of a player for trade bait).

1. is having so many players not in contract a risk for CFC - or just a great trade opportunity?

See above. We'll have the money to lock in as many as we want to keep on heavily frontloaded contracts.

4. And will it mean that a Fyfe/Dusty deal hits new record highs ($1.6m pa?) as Clubs use the space for short term gain?

Yes. I expect to see a fair few [8 years/ 10 million] or [3 years at 5 million] type deals getting thrown around.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Why on earth would we be adding our 3rd rounder to the deal?

An inducement to have them pony up a 1st and 2nd rounder maybe? Its not rocket science.

 

[rp84]

I get what you are saying, but if I had to make a call on the five names you mentioned, I would expect only one of them to leave. Gibbs. The way ASOS is playing I would expect a contract on the main list for him next year. I don't think we will be losing as much experience as people are suggesting, so I'm not certain we need to bringing in much more myself.

I think the current balance is reasonable, and losing more than one would possibly require adding someone. If we could land a very successful player that is getting to the end of their career, I can see huge benefit to the playing group. Someone like Burgoyne would be ideal for a year, followed by possible coaching roles.

 

[DangerousD]

If you listen to opposition supporters, you hear quite a bit of 'that's the last time *insert team* will beat Carlton for a while'
I tend to agree with this sentiment.

Can anyone here say with confidence that Essendon, Collingwood, North, Richmond, Freo, Brisbane, Saints, Melb, Swans, Hawks will beat us next year? Look at how we played them with 10-11 players aged 19-21, next year this group of players will be 20-22 y.o. with 30-60 games under their belts.

Melbourne supporters have been waiting 3 years to take that next step with a talented team.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I think the current balance is reasonable, and losing more than one would possibly require adding someone. If we could land a very successful player that is getting to the end of their career, I can see huge benefit to the playing group. Someone like Burgoyne would be ideal for a year, followed by possible coaching roles.

You could well be right though I am more inclined to think its the Boekhurst, KJ, Jed Lamb types falling off our list rather than the Rowe, ASOS, White types. I think we will look to add 50 - 100 gamers, 21 - 26 year old types rather than the 200 gamers or 28 years + types. Just my opinion though.

 

[Wickzki]

Hmmm I see what you're saying and it is definitely one way it could play out. However there are also many other ways it could play out.

Example: Brisbane could trade pick 11 to GWS for Hopper.

In a free market, there's always going to be the risk of downside. However in the Lewis situation, you're assuming no other club is going to pony up for a pick 11. The other clubs only ALL lose if they choose to do nothing.

In order for a club to lure a player across the player has to be willing to go there. Yes, Brisbane have gotten the likes of Dayne Beams to go home but there have been mitigating circumstances to a lot of their bigger name acquisitions (even average performers like Tom Bell). It's just not realistic to think that Brisbane would lure a young gun like Hopper. It's exceedingly rare that young guns like Hopper leave one interstate (from their home state) club to go to another. If they leave then it's generally to return to their home state. With the cap increasing significantly they'd have to beat contracts like the one North reportedly offered Kelly by significant margins. Instead of 9 for 9 you'd be looking at 15-16 for 9 (at least).