2017 Rising Star Predictions

[jackenny]

Genuine question, if Alex Witherden continues his form over the last 6 games, is 10 games of top quality performances enough to win the rising star, or does it really favour kids who play almost every game?

It's like the All-Australian in that it definitely favours those who play more games. Witherden would have to pull out games where he's one of the BoG for the next six weeks to be competitive (ie, games where'd you feel comfortable giving him Brownlow votes).

 

[briztoon]

It's like the All-Australian in that it definitely favours those who play more games. Witherden would have to pull out games where he's one of the BoG for the next six weeks to be competitive (ie, games where'd you feel comfortable giving him Brownlow votes).

I wouldn't be surprised he was close to receiving a Brownlow vote in his first game, in Brisbane's win over Essendon. And he was Brisbane's Player of the Round in Brisbane's loss to Richmond. He also made the AFL team of the week last week.

 

[jackenny]

I wouldn't be surprised he was close to receiving a Brownlow vote in his first game, in Brisbane's win over Essendon. And he was Brisbane's Player of the Round in Brisbane's loss to Richmond. He also made the AFL team of the week last week.

I'd be surprised if Witherden wins it, but he's not totally out of contention if he can produce Brownlow level performances from here on out (have to remember that Bontempelli lost to Taylor with a large part of the reasoning being that Taylor played 22 games while Bontempelli played 'only' 16 games). Bontempelli didn't really start turning heads until round 13 (his actual output before that being pretty ordinary, although there were signs of brilliance). His form after that breakout game was scintillating, however (the only exception being a poor game against the Hawks in round 19). In comparison, Lewis Taylor played almost every game for the year (he missed out in round 10), and only had one negligible performance (in round 1 he was a non-participant). Basically, Bontempelli produced ten good games, five very ordinary games, and one negligible game (against the Bombers in round 2) to round out his year. Taylor produced 21 solid games of football, and although his games never hit the same highs as Bontempelli's bar a few, the sheer weight of numbers was on Taylor's side - and that won him the Rising Star Award.

My view: Alex Witherden needs 30+ disposal, 1+ goal performances to put him in contention. He needs to overshadow the performances of everyone else before him, and he hasn't done so IMO, he's only equalled them while playing far less games for the year.

edit: to clarify, when I say 'brownlow votes', what I mean is they have to clearly be among the best on the ground for both teams - say for example that game against Richmond, Witherden wouldn't get a single brownlow vote for me. Dustin Martin clearly gets 3 votes, and I'd put a number of Richmond players ahead of Brisbane's best on that day (Riewoldt, Butler, Cotchin, and Ellis all performed better than Beams, Taylor, and Witherden).

 

[cryptor]

Genuine question, if Alex Witherden continues his form over the last 6 games, is 10 games of top quality performances enough to win the rising star, or does it really favour kids who play almost every game?

Would need to be pretty incredible performances, and even then there's definitely a leaning towards players who play close to a full season.

Maybe if it were a weaker field, but you're competing against Sam "most impact by a first year player ever" Powell-Pepper who isn't even the favourite in what is a three horse race.

He should be eligible still next year though so if he has a strong finish he would probably start 2018 as a warm favourite.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Bump - this is the thread where you can actually vote for Burton.

 

[cryptor]

Bump - this is the thread where you can actually vote for Burton.

This poll was more of a long term thing. Probably best to just create a fresh one with all the nominees after round 23 and see what it looks like then.

 

[HeHateMe]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-17/no-special-rising-star-treatment-for-mcgrath-spp

 

[Lance Uppercut]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-17/no-special-rising-star-treatment-for-mcgrath-spp

I agree with Shifter personally. But even if you did think it should be first year players at the moment it's not, and the judges will not pay any attention to it, quite rightly

 

[HeHateMe]

I agree with Shifter personally. But even if you did think it should be first year players at the moment it's not, and the judges will not pay any attention to it, quite rightly

yeah fair enough, i wasn't sure which way this would go but am pretty happy its shifted this way for obvious reason.

Nintendo switch come at me!