Position 2017 Rucks

[toxic]

Daniel Wells was 5th.

Zerret - 111.5
Zorko - 109
Dusty - 108.1
N.Roo - 101
Wells - 100.6

I think I remember reading he went Wells to N.Roo. You don't have to explain the "it's when you trade a player in from then the average counts", I completely get that. I was merely just pointing out that he did have the top 4.

Ok.

Its a ruck thread, not sure how it got diverted (possibly Ryder related).
The overall final AVERAGE has absolutely ZERO bearing on how i pick my side. Its like saying, gee its hot., my grass is green today, Collingwoods jumper is black and white.
The whole statement about overall average and final average based standing, for ME, is totally irrelevant.

Back to rucks to get the thread back on track.



Who is the best VALUE ruck who has R/F. Emphasis on VALUE

Who is the R/F (apart from Ryder) who'll play the most games?

Thoughts BF community?

 

[gutsroy]

Don't know if you have seen the comments today but Jock giving Martin a massive wrap!

Nah, will have to check it out. Cheers for the tip

 

[gutsroy]

Ok.

Its a ruck thread, not sure how it got diverted (possibly Ryder related).
The overall final AVERAGE has absolutely ZERO bearing on how i pick my side. Its like saying, gee its hot., my grass is green today, Collingwoods jumper is black and white.
The whole statement about overall average and final average based standing, for ME, is totally irrelevant.

Back to rucks to get the thread back on track.



Who is the best VALUE ruck who has R/F. Emphasis on VALUE

Who is the R/F (apart from Ryder) who'll play the most games?

Thoughts BF community?

Would say Boyd based on a three-second skim of the names. Assumes the GF was his Tomahawk coming of age, I guess.

 

[toxic]

Would say Boyd based on a three-second skim of the names. Assumes the GF was his Tomahawk coming of age, I guess.

Boyd as the dogs R1 appeals big time.
Given Trav and Crameri are back he's on the high interest club.
Issue is his GF game was only worth 99sc or thereabouts...considering i judged him bog by a long way that is a concern

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Assume a normal distribution and enter expected average / SD (can be based on past performance or an expectation if you think they'll go higher), then generate the scores (nothing fancy, just with rand component and those avg and SD values for n iterations) and calculate prices off that. Edit: Hadn't thought of asymmetric distributions, interesting idea

Bit like the screenshot below (for price calc, using New Price = 0.75* Old Price + 5000 * 3-rd avg * 0.25, that was my impression):
View attachment 327486

Nice work. You need to simulate a few injury interrupted games in those 10 "seasons" though. Nothing like a single digit score when someone goes down in the first quarter to depress a players price for a month or so.

 

[gutsroy]

Boyd as the dogs R1 appeals big time.
Given Trav and Crameri are back he's on the high interest club.
Issue is his GF game was only worth 99sc or thereabouts...considering i judged him bog by a long way that is a concern

Yeah, that's true, but personally don't have expectations of him raising his ceiling so as much as his floor. Played on a bung shoulder and was hampered, had some v low scores.
If reco went ok and he right come rd 1, could expect better output in holding his marks etc., reducing the sub-50 games. Might be good for 80-85 at a complete guess.

 

[gutsroy]

Nice work. You need to simulate a few injury interrupted games in those 10 "seasons" though. Nothing like a single digit score when someone goes down in the first quarter to depress a players price for a month or so.

True, don't have injuries built in, but do have a version for blokes like Rocky with a rookie substitute score for when they miss in one version based on miss probability assumed. Just did it to see if it would work, tbh. (This is just for scores, no price impact when they miss)

 

[Keg on legs]

Boyd as the dogs R1 appeals big time.
Given Trav and Crameri are back he's on the high interest club.
Issue is his GF game was only worth 99sc or thereabouts...considering i judged him bog by a long way that is a concern

The game he had was, IMO, about as good as he could possibly play. He was enormous.

For that to translate to "only" 99 odd points says to me that he is missing some important SC attributes and places him firmly on my no-go list. He's worth a closer look though to see if there were some clangers that affected his score and dragged it down from the 120+ I thought it warranted.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Ok.

Its a ruck thread, not sure how it got diverted (possibly Ryder related).
The overall final AVERAGE has absolutely ZERO bearing on how i pick my side. Its like saying, gee its hot., my grass is green today, Collingwoods jumper is black and white.
The whole statement about overall average and final average based standing, for ME, is totally irrelevant.

Back to rucks to get the thread back on track.



Who is the best VALUE ruck who has R/F. Emphasis on VALUE

Who is the R/F (apart from Ryder) who'll play the most games?

Thoughts BF community?

They are all rubbish picks, if you want a R/F Ryder is the only one worth considering.
I'm picking him regardless of who I go with in the rucks, I think he's a strong contender for a top 6 FWD spot come years end because of the discount he got I think his starting price will be the cheapest you'll be able to get him all year.
The DPP is just a plus imo.

 

[Sir Skid]

The game he had was, IMO, about as good as he could possibly play. He was enormous.

For that to translate to "only" 99 odd points says to me that he is missing some important SC attributes and places him firmly on my no-go list. He's worth a closer look though to see if there were some clangers that affected his score and dragged it down from the 120+ I thought it warranted.

99 pts just means CD not feeling the Boyd love.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

They are all rubbish picks, if you want a R/F Ryder is the only one worth considering.
I'm picking him regardless of who I go with in the rucks, I think he's a strong contender for a top 6 FWD spot come years end because of the discount he got I think his starting price will be the cheapest you'll be able to get him all year.
The DPP is just a plus imo.

Yep this. Ryder safe as houses

 

[Feerits Elf]

Yep this. Ryder safe as houses

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Safe as houses not safe as house

 

[Feerits Elf]

Safe as houses not safe as house

Lol

 

[Fooler]

Shane Mumford flying well and truly under the radar.
Must surely benefit from no third man up in both a scoring and durability sense.
Has averaged 110 in the past. Coming off 21 games last season. Plenty of opportunity for HOA with the blokes surrounding him. Must surely be considered.

 

[Moustachio]

Assume a normal distribution and enter expected average / SD (can be based on past performance or an expectation if you think they'll go higher), then generate the scores (nothing fancy, just with rand component and those avg and SD values for n iterations) and calculate prices off that. Edit: Hadn't thought of asymmetric distributions, interesting idea

Bit like the screenshot below (for price calc, using New Price = 0.75* Old Price + 5000 * 3-rd avg * 0.25, that was my impression):
View attachment 327486

Ahhh okay. I *think* if you run enough simulations, a normal distribution should give you the same av predicted price as if you just do av * 5.0.

 

[gutsroy]

Ahhh okay. I *think* if you run enough simulations, a normal distribution should give you the same av predicted price as if you just do av * 5.0.

Nothing to do with the topic, but are you the moustachio who also posts on Jock Reynolds' site sometimes?
You blokes do some good work over there, some very cluey folks, and Jock is a cracker

 

[Hairy Lager]

Assume a normal distribution and enter expected average / SD (can be based on past performance or an expectation if you think they'll go higher), then generate the scores (nothing fancy, just with rand component and those avg and SD values for n iterations) and calculate prices off that. Edit: Hadn't thought of asymmetric distributions, interesting idea

Bit like the screenshot below (for price calc, using New Price = 0.75* Old Price + 5000 * 3-rd avg * 0.25, that was my impression):
View attachment 327486

Always love your input Guts old mate, but Jesus my eyes...

 

[dlanod]

Shane Mumford flying well and truly under the radar.
Must surely benefit from no third man up in both a scoring and durability sense.
Has averaged 110 in the past. Coming off 21 games last season. Plenty of opportunity for HOA with the blokes surrounding him. Must surely be considered.

Watched every game of his last year.

He's done as a tap ruckman unless he's up against a part time ruck. He can barely get off the ground. He's fantastic at physical work at the stoppage - blocking, roving and tackling, but he doesn't get the ball enough to counteract his barely passable ruck work.

 

[Fooler]

Watched every game of his last year.

He's done as a tap ruckman unless he's up against a part time ruck. He can barely get off the ground. He's fantastic at physical work at the stoppage - blocking, roving and tackling, but he doesn't get the ball enough to counteract his barely passable ruck work.

Reminds me of the Sydney Q/E final. He was a **** all game. Still averaged 3rd for hit outs last season. (34.7) Just 1.8 per game less than Goldy.

 

[Moustachio]

Nothing to do with the topic, but are you the moustachio who also posts on Jock Reynolds' site sometimes?
You blokes do some good work over there, some very cluey folks, and Jock is a cracker

Yup love old Jock

 

[big bootaaaaah]

Ok.

The whole statement about overall average and final average based standing, for ME, is totally irrelevant.

That's exactly right, if you had the two overall highest averaging rucks from start to finish you could still end up scoring less points than someone who traded other rucks in and out at the right times.

 

[rumoursofwinter]

Is Jarrod Witts still a ruck / forward? He could be a nice cheap forward option to swing into the ruck if needed. Apparently Tom Nicholls is eating burgers. I'm confused about ruckmen. I don't really like any of them. Gawn overpriced, Goldy knee and north in rebuild mode, Sandy 34, Grundy 22, Ryder misses games and I think Lobbe will get 'some' games.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Is Jarrod Witts still a ruck / forward? He could be a nice cheap forward option to swing into the ruck if needed. Apparently Tom Nicholls is eating burgers. I'm confused about ruckmen. I don't really like any of them. Gawn overpriced, Goldy knee and north in rebuild mode, Sandy 34, Grundy 22, Ryder misses games and I think Lobbe will get 'some' games.

Just a ruck alas. I think he's interesting and looked hard at him the last few days but it's hard to find a spot for him. Even if he's 100% certain to play he's too expensive to be on the bench and not safe enough to put on field as R2.

 

[toxic]

Just a ruck alas. I think he's interesting and looked hard at him the last few days but it's hard to find a spot for him. Even if he's 100% certain to play he's too expensive to be on the bench and not safe enough to put on field as R2.

Will you be taking any of the 1st rd draftees from 2016?

McGrath
mcLuggage types?

I guess in theory Witts is a very high 1st rd draft pick based on price alone - not ability