Team Mgmt. 2017 Team selections, injuries and availability

[Lore]

So you're probably aware of the spreadsheets I keep posting everywhere. Well this will be something of a home for it I guess.

Spoiler: 2016 version

 

[Aeglos]

We need an inside mid, yep. I'm still not convinced our team balance is right, why have 3 small forwards?

We can have 3 if they can rotate through the middle (see Bruest, Poppy, Rioli).
Not sure Green is good enough for that though, and I definitely agree we need a legitimate inside mid

 

[Teflon Dons]

We can have 3 if they can rotate through the middle (see Bruest, Poppy, Rioli).
Not sure Green is good enough for that though, and I definitely agree we need a legitimate inside mid

Yeah I reckon we need one more quality small fwd that can rotate through there. I'd love Cam Rayner with our 1st. Not small but can rotate with Tippa, Fantasia as a pressure forward. Has X factor and loves to tackle. Parish, McGrath, Heppell, Merrett will hopefully end up in a rotation off a hbf next to McKenna.

 

[BrunoV]

I don't think we can effectively play Green and Coyler in the same 22, for a variety of reasons (or neither).

If that means 2 small forwards with Langford and Myers swapping as a medium sized forward mid (or Laverde when he's back) then drop both of them and get some size on the park.

The biggest problem with those two players is not just structural but it is questionable that they are AFL standard, at least for good teams.

With Green, he can't run so all of the theory about pressure is just that, theory.

Colyer's application is inconsistent as a player in his 8th year. Give his inability around the contest if he is not covering Scully sort of miles I really don't see the point of his selection.

So as a matter of team balance that is two players who really only emphasise weakness for the addition of anoccasional burst of speed and the ability to crumb and use the ball.

Someone mentioned playing Colyer as a small forward but I don't see why we would. Fantasia and Tippa are both the most dangerous forwards and the hardest workers.

I think that what we need is five permanent forward positions in any week. The three key forwards and two dedicated mid-sized or small forwards which would be rotated based on the make up of the rest of the team.

The sixth forward is essentially a forward who is a genuine part of the midfield rotation. More often than not the fifth dedicated forward should also be part of the midfield rotation. This is especially the case because Stewart and Daniher are as athletic as they are.

I'd go as far as saying that two dedicated small forwards could almost be too many. The perception about these guys is that it is necessary to have players under 180cm as though somethin magicalhappens. Laverde, Langford, Redman (though I want him in defence), Long and to a less extent Begley could comfortably fit into a side as notional small forwards.

Not saying that Fantasia and Tippa are not clearly best 22 players but when we get pummelled by the bottom team on the ladder and can hardly win a midfield clearance all year the it's pretty clear that more attention to team balance is required.

 

[CBombers17]

The biggest problem with those two players is not just structural but it is questionable that they are AFL standard, at least for good teams.

With Green, he can't run so all of the theory about pressure is just that, theory.

Colyer's application is inconsistent as a player in his 8th year. Give his inability around the contest if he is not covering Scully sort of miles I really don't see the point of his selection.

So as a matter of team balance that is two players who really only emphasise weakness for the addition of anoccasional burst of speed and the ability to crumb and use the ball.

Someone mentioned playing Colyer as a small forward but I don't see why we would. Fantasia and Tippa are both the most dangerous forwards and the hardest workers.

I think that what we need is five permanent forward positions in any week. The three key forwards and two dedicated mid-sized or small forwards which would be rotated based on the make up of the rest of the team.

The sixth forward is essentially a forward who is a genuine part of the midfield rotation. More often than not the fifth dedicated forward should also be part of the midfield rotation. This is especially the case because Stewart and Daniher are as athletic as they are.

I'd go as far as saying that two dedicated small forwards could almost be too many. The perception about these guys is that it is necessary to have players under 180cm as though somethin magicalhappens. Laverde, Langford, Redman (though I want him in defence), Long and to a less extent Begley could comfortably fit into a side as notional small forwards.

Not saying that Fantasia and Tippa are not clearly best 22 players but when we get pummelled by the bottom team on the ladder and can hardly win a midfield clearance all year the it's pretty clear that more attention to team balance is required.

Great post - I see Fantasia as very likely to be the most productive in terms of midfield rotations and is already getting time there - he also give us the best marking capabilities of the 3 small forwards - essentially, dare I say it - the Mark Mercuri role

Our overall marking capability was the only thing i'd add here. If you are going to have a five footer who isn't strong overhead you have 1 not 3 (Tippa, Coyler and Green) and i'd chose Tippa for a few reasons.

Our best sides have been very balanced in terms of marking capabilities and I think for all the run and supposed dare we are getting we are missing the mid-sized good/solid overhead types desperately - going back to the future again another Justin Blumfield thanks!

 

[Lore]

Decided to update the height/weight stats in the spreadsheet, and it would seem we have new scales and measuring tapes this year. Pretty much everyone is now a centimetre shorter than the last time I checked them (apart from a couple of the younguns that put on a centimetre or two), and a couple of kilos lighter. Either that or our philosophy towards stat doctoring has changed and we want people to think our team is generally shorter now than it used to be

 

[Skipper_]

THE bookends were keeping Essendon’s season alive.
But now the midfield has made the Bombers a genuine finals threat.

Having endured an indifferent first half of the season, tweaks to Essendon’s on-ball group has revitalised the team and sparked life into its charge towards September.

John Worsfold has trialled new personnel through the midfield and has given opposition teams different looks at centre bounces, making the Bombers more potent going forward.

The results were evident in a 37-point victory over Collingwood a fortnight ago and perhaps even more so in a 61-point win over the in-form St Kilda on Friday night.

And while defeats to Sydney and Brisbane were blips in a promising five-week stretch, they were games the Bombers could — and perhaps should — have won easily.

Since the side’s Round 12 victory over Port Adelaide, Essendon’s numbers in the mid-zone of the field have improved out of sight — helping the side return to finals contention.

They’re now a top five team for contested possession and clearance differential across that period, helping their inside 50 differential rise significantly over the last five games.

In fact, Essendon is now creating, on average, 22 more inside 50 entries per week over the last five matches compared to its first 11 games — an incredible turnaround.

LISTEN TO THE LATEST FOX FOOTY PODCAST BELOW, OR TAP HERE TO SUBSCRIBE IN ITUNES


Given the form of key forwards Joe Daniher, James Stewart and Cale Hooker — combined with the threat of the side’s smaller forwards — more looks therefore means more potency.

As a result, a forward group which was already firing — averaging 92 points per game in the first 11 weeks — has gotten better and is now averaging 107 points per game over the last five.

“The first 11 weeks of the year, they were really good in their back 50 and really good in their forward 50, but they were really poor in the mid-zone,” David King said on Fox Footy.

“When you talk about opportunities, the gap between inside 50s then and now is about 20-odd more a game. That is a huge number. And it gives the forward 50 far more opportunity.”

Zippy forwards Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia have both been given more stints pinch-hitting through the midfield, adding speed and a new dimension to the on-ball group.

However, perhaps the most significant move in terms of personnel has been the decision to switch David Zaharakis from a role solely on the wing to one as a pure midfielder.

“He’s almost been one of the linchpins for their improvement,” Gerard Healy said on Fox Footy’s On The Couch.

“His run through the middle of the ground, when perhaps he was playing too much on the wing, has seen his numbers change enormously through this five-week period.

“His whole impact on games has been superb.”

Zaharakis’ numbers have risen significantly over the last five weeks, making him a damaging prospect for opposition coaches who already have their hands full when facing the Dons.

He is averaging 28.2 disposals per game in that five-week period (+5.7 per game from the first 11 weeks), 464 metres gained (+140m) and 10.2 score involvements (+5.4).

Winning the majority of his footy on the outside, Zaharakis has also proved the perfect man to complement the team’s contested winners like Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson and Zach Merrett.

However, such a role makes him the easiest to tag — a facet of the game triple premiership winner Jonathan Brown believes he will be forced to deal with in the coming weeks.

“He has to be sat on — the opposition has to set a tagger on him,” Brown said.

“But you can keep moving him around. You start him inside. But one of the strengths of Essendon’s game over the last few weeks is that they’ve started to put some speedy players in the centre square. So you can get him on the wing or get him at half forward.”

As noted by Brown, the sheer weight of numbers Worsfold can now rotate through the midfield gives the side flexibility — a key element heading into September.

And that’s perhaps where they will be playing in just over a month’s time.

A game behind Sydney, Melbourne, West Coast and St Kilda, Essendon is right in the finals mix and has a percentage (108.5 per cent) that is greater than three of the four sides above them.

Given a 2016 season where a depleted Bombers outfit finished on the bottom of the ladder, the team also has a favourable run-in to end the season.

The play just one side above them on the ladder in the final six weeks (Adelaide at Etihad Stadium in Round 21), with only one interstate trip (Gold Coast in Round 22) on the calendar.

This, factored with the side’s new-found form, puts them in a position of power heading into the latter stages of the season — and makes them a genuine threat come finals time.

ESSENDON’S MID-ZONE DIFFERENTIALS

ROUNDS 1-11

Contested Possession Differential: -11 (17th)

Clearance Differential: -6 (18th)

Inside 50 Differential: -12 (17th)

Pts For: 92 (7th)

Pts Against: 96 (14th)

ROUNDS 12-17

Contested Possession Differential: +6 (5th)

Clearance Differential: +3 (5th)

Inside 50 Differential: +10 (2nd)

Pts For: 107 (1st)

Pts Against: 75 (3rd)

*Courtesy of Champion Data

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/th...t/news-story/cb0d130a542206de472840deb1ec6aec

 

[JayJ20]

Not only that, but our midfield has been performing better for longer.

I think the one change that will make our side very hard to match up on is swapping one of our smalls for a "tall". Seeing as Walla and Fantasia run through the midfield, I'd swap Green for Laverde. That would make our forwardline very hard to stop as Laverde can play small while competing in the air. That change will probably happen in a couple of weeks

 

[Saint]

You can have three small forwards and some of them can run through the middle. If Green can't go through the middle, it doesn't mean he can't be in the side as just a small forward, even it he's not as good as the other two at being a forward or a mid.

I think we should be only making slight tweaks. I'm not convinced about Myers or anyone else as being good enough midfielders to displace Green from the forward-line. And I think Green could do a couple of minutes up on the wing or in the midfield per half if we need to rotate a mid to the fwd pocket, but it's not really like that any more...

 

[TheFrenchCut]

ROUNDS 12-17

Contested Possession Differential: +6 (5th)

Clearance Differential: +3 (5th)

Inside 50 Differential: +10 (2nd)

Pts For: 107 (1st)

Pts Against: 75 (3rd)

*Courtesy of Champion Data

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/th...t/news-story/cb0d130a542206de472840deb1ec6aec

It's worth considering the ability of the teams we've played in these areas too.

Clearance diff. average, contested possession. diff. average, Essendon's clearance differential against them, Ess cp differential against them:
Port = 2nd, 1st, 0, +11
Sydney = 9th, 5th, -6, -14
Brisbane = 11th, 18th, -1, -14
Collingwood = 4th, 6th, +8, +13,
St Kilda = 7th, 10th, -3, +15

 

[Capt Hindsight]

With Josh Green out of the side injured the 3 'small' forwards vs a mid/fwd is up for debate.
Most of the possible replacements are big bodied medium forwards/mids being Begley, Langford and Laverde. With a small mid/fwd in Howlett and a small fwd/wing in Jackson Merrett.
Langford was unlucky to be rested/dropped after the lions game. Gives the side flexibility of another player that can rotate through the midfield that is also a good overhead mark forward. Destroying VFL when not playing AFL.
Begley and Laverde big bodied players that are very handy around goals and will play mid mins in future once they have a tank but not right now. Begley advantage of blooding a debutant. Laverde probably needs more VFL games to build fitness base.
Jackson Merrett the most like for like. Opportunity to save his career if picked.
Howlett replaced Green and played his role when Green mised matches earlier in the year. Can also rotate through the midfield.

I'd go with Langford to help strengthen the midfield.

 

[jmoo wan]

i'd go with Langford or Begley, which means they'll go with Jacko.

 

[Lore]

Have added percentage of time on ground statistics to the spreadsheet.

Hurley is literally a beast.

 

[BrunoV]

Shock, Horror!

Worsfold says that Laverde and Begley can play Green's role.

 

[Killer_Mike]

2017 H&A SEASON

2017 AFL POWER RANKINGS

POINTS PER INSIDE 50 FOR

An insight in to a teams forward line efficiency success rate once the ball enters their forward 50 metre arc.

POINTS PER INSIDE 50 AGA

An insight in to a teams defensive capabilities success rate once the ball enters their opponents forward 50 metre arc.

 

[Teflon Dons]

Shock, Horror!

Worsfold says that Laverde and Begley can play Green's role.

Don't think anyone's questioned that. Put either one in, how many games do those smaller fwds have between them? That's the argument for Green staying in. Obviously you'd like someone a little more capable, but he's the most experienced forward we have.

 

[calyam]

2017 H&A SEASON

2017 AFL POWER RANKINGS

POINTS PER INSIDE 50 FOR

An insight in to a teams forward line efficiency success rate once the ball enters their forward 50 metre arc.

POINTS PER INSIDE 50 AGA

An insight in to a teams defensive capabilities success rate once the ball enters their opponents forward 50 metre arc.

Great numbers. It really highlights where we need to improve - the midfield - and where our attention should be this off-season. If we can get that midfield right, either through draft / trading / free agency or natural improvement, then we are well on our way to becoming a top four team.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Great numbers. It really highlights where we need to improve - the midfield - and where our attention should be this off-season. If we can get that midfield right, either through draft / trading / free agency or natural improvement, then we are well on our way to becoming a top four team.

I think we have the nucleus of a strong midfield with some of the young guns we have already. Just need to continue to add depth.

I think due to the returning players we had a slow start this year so our true ladder position doesn't really reflect where we should be. I think we are already a top four team.

 

[Skipper_]

2017 H&A SEASON

2017 AFL POWER RANKINGS

POINTS PER INSIDE 50 FOR

An insight in to a teams forward line efficiency success rate once the ball enters their forward 50 metre arc.

POINTS PER INSIDE 50 AGA

An insight in to a teams defensive capabilities success rate once the ball enters their opponents forward 50 metre arc.

Based on this we are the second best team in the comp. Tells you where the work needs to be done.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Based on this we are the second best team in the comp. Tells you where the work needs to be done.

Yep.

If we had an even slightly better midfield we would be better in both attack and defence.

Building very nicely.

 

[Skipper_]

Yep.

If we had an even slightly better midfield we would be better in both attack and defence.

Building very nicely.

The thing is, our midfield has improved considerably over since Port Adelaide which is why we should have won five in a row.

 

[Killer_Mike]

The thing is, our midfield has improved considerably over since Port Adelaide which is why we should have won five in a row.

Coming good at the right time of the year. Woosha did say it was going to happen.

Scrape into the finals and we will frighten a few teams.

 

[Lore]

Given we're probably going to see a bit of turnover in this area over the off-season I thought it'd be interesting to look at the structure, selections and depth in the midfield/forward part of our list, and see if we can figure out where the holes are (aside from "we need Dustin Martin" etc. which is as obvious as the sash on our jumper).

It seems that seven defenders (one starting on the bench), a ruckman and three tall forwards are non-negotiable. That's 11 players accounted for.

The other 11 rotate between one defensive rebound role (this year usually Merrett, sometimes Goddard or Colyer), up to three general forward roles (Raz, Walla and Green predominantly, although all three roll through the midfield), two or three bench spots, and the other five mid/on-ball roles.

So who are they? Who of our current senior list should be in there in 2018? What does our depth look like in these roles? How would you split game time between inside/outside and forward? Who gets more midfield time?

Zach Merrett
Brendon Goddard
Travis Colyer
Orazio Fantasia
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Jayden Laverde
Josh Green
Joshua Begley
Jackson Merrett
Dyson Heppell
David Zaharakis
Darcy Parish
David Myers
Jobe Watson
Brent Stanton
Kyle Langford
Craig Bird
Ben Howlett
Heath Hocking
Kobe Mutch
Dylan Clarke
Aaron Francis
Andrew McGrath
Mason Redman
Alex Morgan

*You can include a Martin/Hopper/Josh Kelly etc. "type" in a hypothetical structure but please be mindful that trade discussion belongs in the trade thread*

 

[DONatron]

Given we're probably going to see a bit of turnover in this area over the off-season I thought it'd be interesting to look at the structure, selections and depth in the midfield/forward part of our list, and see if we can figure out where the holes are (aside from "we need Dustin Martin" etc. which is as obvious as the sash on our jumper).

It seems that seven defenders (one starting on the bench), a ruckman and three tall forwards are non-negotiable. That's 11 players accounted for.

The other 11 rotate between one defensive rebound role (this year usually Merrett, sometimes Goddard or Colyer), up to three general forward roles (Raz, Walla and Green predominantly, although all three roll through the midfield), two or three bench spots, and the other five mid/on-ball roles.

So who are they? Who of our current senior list should be in there in 2018? What does our depth look like in these roles? How would you split game time between inside/outside and forward? Who gets more midfield time?

Zach Merrett
Brendon Goddard
Travis Colyer
Orazio Fantasia
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Jayden Laverde
Josh Green
Joshua Begley
Jackson Merrett
Dyson Heppell
David Zaharakis
Darcy Parish
David Myers
Jobe Watson
Brent Stanton
Kyle Langford
Craig Bird
Ben Howlett
Heath Hocking
Kobe Mutch
Dylan Clarke
Aaron Francis
Andrew McGrath
Mason Redman
Alex Morgan

*You can include a Martin/Hopper/Josh Kelly etc. "type" in a hypothetical structure but please be mindful that trade discussion belongs in the trade thread*

Won't play in 2018 group
Jobe, Stants, Hocking, Morgan, J. Merrett and one of Bird or Howlett.

Allow for Raz/Tippa to flow through the midfield at times as their pace can allow for effective outside running

Make Begley become a full on inside mid, which I believe he can be, whilst sneaking forward at times to create mismatches on defenders with his size. Utilise Laverde in a similar manner. Myers is another who will be inside midfielder but with less use going forward. Clarke similar to Myers

Mutch could fill the similar role to Colyer and therefore allow a natural depth to form for the team. Langford falls into a similar role as he seems more suited to an outside link game. Doesn't have that snarl about him, which mids on the inside need.

Keep Hepp, Zaka, Z. Merrett doing their current roles as they please. Parish to stay a full time midfielder who can go inside/outside.

Switch up McGrath and Goddard more to make use of the kicking skills Goddard possess, whilst allowing him to get through next season in an area lack of pace, won't be such a factor. Split time up 75/25 midfield time in McGrath's favour to allow for development. The pace he has will allow for another quicker type to be around the contest more often and create a better spread to benefit the forward line even more.

Going off these assumptions our midfield group would consist of

Forward/Pace burst mids
Raz, Tippa

Inside/drift forward
Begley, Laverde

Inside
Myers, Clarke. (Hopper)*

Outside/Link players
Mutch, Colyer, Langford

Inside/Outside
Hepp, Z. Merrett, Zaka and Parish

Outside/half back
Goddard, McGrath

The group needing most attention should be the inside mids as there will be a loss in that department this off-season, so look at bringing in a Hopper type, possessing that hard nosed style we lack and who has been in the system, whilst being a list fit for our group.

 

[Ambrosia]

I'm worried he's not going to make enough hard calls going forward. We are a big chance to miss the 8 with an easy draw and the healthiest list in the comp.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I'm worried he's not going to make enough hard calls going forward. We are a big chance to miss the 8 with an easy draw and the healthiest list in the comp.

I don't think he will start playing kids till we can't make finals.