2017 trade/draft thread

[amazingjoshy]

It's not really an insult but if that's the thinking and it increases the value of our picks then I reckon we should embrace it.

you said it much better

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

I don't understand why it's the dogs doing the running around in the stringer trade .
Shouldn't essendon be looking to swap there 25 + 30 for a lower pick to appease the dogs ?

 

[15yearmember]

I don't understand why it's the dogs doing the running around in the stringer trade .
Shouldn't essendon be looking to swap there 25 + 30 for a lower pick to appease the dogs ?

I think the Dogs are bent over somewhat. Essendon don't have a higher pick to offer and they know the Dogs have to move him. I also reckon they know no-one else is offering better.

It helps us too, as the closer it gets, with us being the only ones they can deal with to get it done, our leverage increases.

However this plays out the Dogs have given a masterclass in how to trash someone's value...

 

[Godfather32]

I don't understand why it's the dogs doing the running around in the stringer trade .
Shouldn't essendon be looking to swap there 25 + 30 for a lower pick to appease the dogs ?

I think the bulldogs are worried about being stuck with him on the list now it's getting to the pointy end of the trade period. I bet they expected Essendon to pony up a bit more in a trade instead of just moving on to Smith so now they're scrambling to get rid of him.

 

[CM9000]

Don't think this is true, aside from Brander, who wasn't that highly rated, talls have never been in the mix for high picks this year, not a long way out at least.

I think chances are most people have misheard and mixed up the drafts, 12 months ago this draft wasn't talked up particularly highly, the Superdraft with Lukocious and Rankine was being hyped up even then. It isn't said every year, casual viewers feel like they hear it every year.

Actually, going by this article, 2017 was looking to be a strong draft:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-05-09/bumper-draft-crop-for-2017-may-see-clubs-hold-their-picks

That talent has already been on show so far this season, with clubs viewing next year's pool as stronger than this year and the 2015 crop, which many felt was talented at the top-end but dropped away.

NAB AFL Academy coach Brenton Sanderson, who recently led the level one academy squad of 2017 hopefuls on a tour of New Zealand, said clubs were already looking forward to next year's draft.

"This is a really exciting young group, and the water cooler talk at the moment around here is that this is a very strong draft. The 2017 draft looks to be a very strong draft," Sanderson told AFL.com.au's Road to the Draft podcast.

"I've seen so much great young talent in this group already. This year's draft coming up looks to be full of great midfielders, and the 2017 draft there's some fantastic talls and a good couple of ruckman in there as well.

"I don't want to jump too early, but it (the 2017 crop) looks to be a really strong group."

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

Fwiw I think the trade will be

Pick 13 + 50 + future 4th
for
25 + 28 + 30

 

[kerrazy]

Fwiw I think the trade will be

Pick 13 + 50 + future 4th
for
25 + 28 + 30

Ew

 

[ronpingwins]

Actually, going by this article, 2017 was looking to be a strong draft:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-05-09/bumper-draft-crop-for-2017-may-see-clubs-hold-their-picks

Well yeah, if you go by what Academy guys like Sanderson/Sheehan say in public, you would think every draft is a Superdraft, they don't say much negative.

At least from reading all the guys on here who watch a lot of games, the consensus was 2018 was the 'Superdraft' with great talls from a long way out. Other than Brander I don't think this one was ever hyped up for talls.

 

[CM9000]

Well yeah, if you go by what Academy guys like Sanderson/Sheehan say in public, you would think every draft is a Superdraft, they don't say much negative.

At least from reading all the guys on here who watch a lot of games, the consensus was 2018 was the 'Superdraft' with great talls from a long way out. Other than Brander I don't think this one was ever hyped up for talls.

I honestly remember reading on here 2017 was perfect for talls, so idk, probably just the result of Sanderson talking up the draft.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

So if I understand this correctly, this is what the trade could be:

OUT: 13, 2018 first and/or second
IN: 9, 25, 30 and potentially 28

This ensures we get Brayshaw/Higgins/Clarke, Kelly, Ryan and someone like Allen. However, we'll effectively be trading out of next years "super draft" unless we give up a player like Gaff.

Monocle AsterixTheGaul ROYAL EAGLE while we should always pick best available, apart from Ian Hill, how's the Top WA talent looking?

I would say WA is OK in talent and as you obviously know, Ian Hill is something special and oozes with class. The others are good but I would not rate them in the first round. Example - I really liked Louis Miller in that he has tough, clean skills, reads the ball well and has football smarts. I would liken him to Constable or in Coffield class but in 2018, he will be a late second rounder assuming he continue to progress like he did this year.

SA have about 3 players that could easily go 1 2 3 and more that will be vying for R1. Both Lukosius and Rankine are match winners.
Both Vic teams are really strong - the King brothers will be in hot demand as KPP (we will hear all about them from Matty Loyd as they are Hailebury/Dragons players), there are midfielders and their are future captains amongst the numbers.

I have heard scouting agents and development coaches using terms like "franchise player", "match winners", Bruce's "something special", adjectives galore because anything in the top 10 will be be just that. Very little risk. In terms of weighting, I would place a 40% weighting on trade points compared to this year's draft points for anyone in the first round. I expect a load of jockeying to get top 10.

I would not be giving away our 1st or 2nd round picks without placing a massive premium on 2018. Example - Cerra (who I really rate) is likely to go at likely pick 4 in 2017. He would only be worth trading for if you expected to be landing a pick around 12 to 15 in 2018. What that is in points - I will leave it to the spreadsheet kings as sometimes you just need to enjoy watching them and trust your football instinct.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Well yeah, if you go by what Academy guys like Sanderson/Sheehan say in public, you would think every draft is a Superdraft, they don't say much negative.

At least from reading all the guys on here who watch a lot of games, the consensus was 2018 was the 'Superdraft' with great talls from a long way out. Other than Brander I don't think this one was ever hyped up for talls.

Agree on Shifter - he talks every year up the same. I have learnt to discount most of what he says.

Pay more attention to Micky Ablett and even Cal Twomey as they have more balance in their appraisal comparing year by year.

 

[CM9000]

I would say WA is OK in talent and as you obviously know, Ian Hill is something special and oozes with class. The others are good but I would not rate them in the first round. Example - I really liked Louis Miller in that he has tough, clean skills, reads the ball well and has football smarts. I would liken him to Constable or in Coffield class but in 2018, he will be a late second rounder assuming he continue to progress like he did this year.

SA have about 3 players that could easily go 1 2 3 and more that will be vying for R1. Both Lukosius and Rankine are match winners.
Both Vic teams are really strong - the King brothers will be in hot demand as KPP (we will hear all about them from Matty Loyd as they are Hailebury/Dragons players), there are midfielders and their are future captains amongst the numbers.

I have heard scouting agents and development coaches using terms like "franchise player", "match winners", Bruce's "something special", adjectives galore because anything in the top 10 will be be just that. Very little risk. In terms of weighting, I would place a 40% weighting on trade points compared to this year's draft points for anyone in the first round. I expect a load of jockeying to get top 10.

I would not be giving away our 1st or 2nd round picks without placing a massive premium on 2018. Example - Cerra (who I really rate) is likely to go at likely pick 4 in 2017. He would only be worth trading for if you expected to be landing a pick around 12 to 15 in 2018. What that is in points - I will leave it to the spreadsheet kings as sometimes you just need to enjoy watching them and trust your football instinct.

Cheers for the in depth response Asterix, appreciate the effort.

 

[eagles rule]

Fwiw I think the trade will be

Pick 13 + 50 + future 4th
for
25 + 28 + 30

big NO

 

[Jako Darling]

Nuffy Freo fan page on FB saying Jack Martin toured Freo today and is linked in a trade for Weller..

 

[flamingEMBERS]

you

So the fact is, at a certain threshold, having more picks > having a higher pick.
The point system is a DECENT method of working out that threshold.

you're suggesting picks immediately after one an other in which case players you would be debating about would be available. This is 15 picks later. you get two in the space of 5 plus one that we already own. Nah pass

 

[flamingEMBERS]

you

So the fact is, at a certain threshold, having more picks > having a higher pick.
The point system is a DECENT method of working out that threshold.

you're suggesting picks immediately after one an other in which case players you would be debating about would be available. This is 15 picks later. you get two in the space of 5 plus one that we already own. Nah pass

 

[Big Cox 88]

What has been the best trade of the trade period
A) Ah Chee
B) Devon Smith
C) Jake Lever
D) Jack Watts

Votes for Jack Watts don't count ah wait actually they do.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

2017: Next year is a super draft
2018: The players just didn't come on during the carnival

 

[Jootube]

As stated earlier, points are only relevant if you need to use points ala F/S or an Academy player. Otherwise getting the best kid is the best option.

I'm just saying that getting the best kid isn't necessarily the best option.
If we get an offer that we can't refuse, we'd be negligent to not trade down for it.

I guess we just disagree on what a good offer is.

 

[Nev57]

Just had a look on the Port board , not a bad word said about Ah Chee plenty of good wishes ,seems the young fella was quite popular and underplayed at Port

 

[Glenno18]

The only reason to trade down and score more 2nd round picks this year would be to fill the senior list back to the minimum 38 spots( max 40). We're currently at 35 contracted players with Hill and Wellingham listed but off contract. They're automatic delisted free agents on the 1st of November. If common sense prevails they'll both go so that's 33 on the list and a minimum of 5 selections via the drafts. We've currently got 13, 32, 50, 69 & 87. I don't think we'll be upgrading rookies so we're gonna need to use picks 69 & 87 which will produce stuff all. I'd take more picks in the 20's and hope for a draft slider or 2 than be forced to use shitty late picks

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Fwiw I think the trade will be

Pick 13 + 50 + future 4th
for
25 + 28 + 30

Why the hell would we need to give a future 4th in that scenario?

 

[random260]

Bundle masten + hill + wellingham + lamb + schoey + karpany + lycett send it to GCS/Brisbane/Carlton/mid table club for their first round pick

But pay for perhaps half of the 6 or all their contract. This would mean that the bottom clubs/mid table clubs would have depth to be able to play finals or not bottom out.

Gcs two 2nd round pick + 1 3rd for 6 solid players seem good. Their would break into their b22 and make them not win wooden spoon for fans.

 

[Bestbird]

I honestly remember reading on here 2017 was perfect for talls, so idk, probably just the result of Sanderson talking up the draft.

That's what I thought as well. A quick look at knightmares ESPN power ranking for April had 5 of the top 6 as kpp. Brander, Hayes, Ballenden, Balta, Coleman Jones with Fogarty ranked 2 as the only mid

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Bundle masten + hill + wellingham + lamb + schoey + karpany + lycett send it to GCS/Brisbane/Carlton/mid table club for their first round pick

But pay for perhaps half of the 6 or all their contract. This would mean that the bottom clubs/mid table clubs would have depth to be able to play finals or not bottom out.

Gcs two 2nd round pick + 1 3rd for 6 solid players seem good. Their would break into their b22 and make them not win wooden spoon for fans.

The worst idea I have ever seen on this site