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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 15

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balmainforever

balmainforever

Dibs
Goosed Freeze MND Challenge 2025 SuperCoach MND challenge - Big Freeze 10th Anniversary 2024 Veteran Freeze MND Challenge 2023 10k Posts Freeze MND Challenge 2022 Freeze MND Champion 2022
Sep 4, 2003
26,653
31,792
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Balmain, GreenBay, Edmonton, Celtic
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond |$1.55|$1.60|$1.57|$1.55|$1.60|$1.62
\Sydney |$2.45|$2.35|$2.40|$2.30|$2.35|$2.30
\|line:10.5|line:9.5|line:9.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:8.5
\total score:|***.5|159.5|159.5|156.5|157.5|160.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West.Bulldogs |$5.00|$4.75|$4.60|$4.70|$4.60|$4.60
\Geelong |$1.18|$1.19|$1.20|$1.20|$1.20|$1.20
\|line:32.5|line:30.5|line:30.5|line:30.5|line:30.5|line:30.5
\total score:|***.5|160.5|161.5|160.5|162.5|160.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$6.50|$5.80|$5.75|$6.50|$6.50|$6.00
\Port Adelaide |$1.12|$1.14|$1.14|$1.12|$1.11|$1.13
\|line:38.5|line:37.5|line:37.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5
\total score:|***.5|154.5|154.5|***.5|154.5|156.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Adelaide|$1.80|$1.84|$1.85|$1.84|$1.80|$1.78
\West Coast |$2.00|$1.98|$1.95|$2.00|$2.02|$2.05
\|line:A2.5|line:A2.5|line:A1.5|line:A2.5|line:A2.5|line:A3.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|169.5|167.5|169.5|167.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$6.00|$5.75|$5.75|$5.75|$6.00|$5.50
\Collingwood |$1.13|$1.14|$1.14|$1.15|$1.13|$1.15
\|line:35.5|line:35.5|line:35.5|line:36.5|line:36.5|line:35.5
\total score:|***.5|160.5|160.5|160.5|161.5|162.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.75|$1.78|$1.81|$1.84|$1.80|$1.78
\Hawthorn |$2.10|$2.05|$2.00|$2.00|$2.02|$2.05
\|line:G3.5|line:G3.5|line:G2.5|line:G2.5|line:G2.5|line:G3.5
\total score:|***.5|161.5|161.5|160.5|162.5|162.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.12|$1.13|$1.13|$1.12|$1.11|$1.13
\St.Kilda |$6.50|$6.05|$6.00|$6.50|$6.50|$6.00
\|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5
\total score:|***.5|171.5|173.5|173.5|173.5|172.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon |$1.95|$1.97|$1.95|$1.94|$1.90|$1.95
\North Melb. |$1.85|$1.84|$1.85|$1.88|$1.90|$1.87
\|line:N1.5|line:N1.5|line:N1.5|line:N1.5|line:N1.5|line:N1.5
\total score:|***.5|160.5|159.5|172.5|158.5|162.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$1.25|$1.25|$1.26|$1.30|$1.28|$1.25
\Brisbane |$4.00|$4.00|$3.90|$3.65|$3.70|$4.00
\|line:25.5|line:24.5|line:24.5|line:24.5|line:24.5|line:25.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|168.5|170.5|169.5|169.5

ODDS AT 13.45 ON 25/6/18
 
Last edited:
Looks a very tough round. Got nothing. Could be a few out with injury - Harris Andrews, Cameron (suspended), Burgoyne, Kreuzer, Treloar, key Eagles have injuries. Six teams off a break and that's been a terrible indicator this round.

Will need to be spoon fed some bets from the forum this week.
 
don't mind Carlton at the line. Will have to see whether Kreuzer gets up or not, but I rekon they will get up and about for Simmo's 300th.
 

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Keen on GWS at $1.90; really can't see Hawthorn getting them at Spotless even with Cameron a likely out.

Also don't mind Sydney. Reckon the Swans would be thrilled to be playing Richmond at Etihad. Not saying the Tigers are bad there but it's easily preferable to getting them at the MCG and the Swans play Etihad well. $2.45 is a touch of overs IMO.
 
With thursday game at etihad liking the Swannies at the line.

Might wait on the teams for the adelaide and GWS games,
Could be some value in both those teams.

Freo -22.5 might be good with walters coming back in, can see him being up and about.
 
Swans, GWS, Eagles (if they can get Kennedy back) are all looking like excellent value.
 

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The Suns 4th quarters have been talked about to death but I think as it's probably a small market there doesn't seem to be much change in the market for their 4th quarter lines. I mean, there is a reason the Suns are getting bashed for their 4th quarter efforts.

In their last 6 games they have this record (GC score listed first)
1st quarter: 22-13 v Hawthorn, 26-20 v St Kilda, 6-18 v GWS, 16-23 v Geelong, 26-35 v Port, 23-29 v Melbourne, 18-8 v Dogs
2nd quarter: 2-24 v Hawthorn, 35-10 v St Kilda, 13-45 v GWS, 1-48 v Geelong, 7-10 v Port, 14-30 v Melbourne, 21-27 v Dogs
3rd quarter: 3-24 v Hawthorn, 17-17 v St Kilda, 6-51 v GWS, 18-22 v Geelong, 9-17 v Port, 26-36 v Melbourne, 19-20 v Dogs
4th quarter: 16-35 v Hawthorn, 0-33 v St Kilda, 1-20 v GWS, 1-28 v Geelong, 0-20 v Port, 14-51 v Melbourne, 14-26 v Dogs

Q1: 3/6 won, aggregate 137-146 (-9)
Q2: 1/6 won, aggregate 93-194 (-101)
Q3: 0/6 won (1 draw), 98-187 (-89)
Q4: 0/6 won, 46-213 (-167)

They haven't covered a +9.5 line in the last quarter since round 6 v Adelaide (losing it by 9 points - +0.5 win) and just 3 times total all year.

Collingwood -9.5 @ $1.88 is decent odds based on all that.

It's not just a minor anomaly either. It's a proven pitfall of GC. 3/13 this year covered (1/13 won, compared to 5-4-4 in the first 3) but 2017 they managed to win only 3/22 (12-8-7 in first 3), 6/22 in 2016 (11-6-9 first 3)...they struggle in final quarters badly.

The Dogs also have won only 1 final quarter all year (v Gold Coast...). They are coming up against Geelong.
Cats -7.5 @ $1.83 (Sportsbet),
 

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free at last said:
Thoughts on the doggies at +30.5 pts?
Click to expand...

Tempted but one decent performance in a good few months makes me wary of taking anything with the Dogs involved. Not a game I'm betting on, might just roll the Geelong into a multi.
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
Tempted but one decent performance in a good few months makes me wary of taking anything with the Dogs involved. Not a game I'm betting on, might just roll the Geelong into a multi.
Click to expand...
Geel have been terrible after the bye in the regular season with an 0-6 record ATS. Of those 6 games they got jumped in the 1st qtr 3 times. In 2016 they also got jumped after the week off in the PF.

WB on the other hand have scooted clear early in their last 3 home games against similar opposition in Coll, Melb and NM. I reckon there is some potential for WB to take an early lead and then get wound back in similar to the NM game.
 
Don't think I can ignore Ade. It looks like WC won't have Darling or Kennedy and LeCras is in doubt which leaves the forward line looking very weak with the goals for Waterman, Ryan and Rioli drying up. Barrass also misses so that impacts on McGovern.

Ade should get Sloane, Lynch and Laird back and maybe also Brown and Knight. Been a rabble and copping it left, right and centre so there is plenty of motivation to come out strong. If they lose to a severely depleted WC at home then they're shot.

Like the WC unders but anyone on unders for TGS? Betts out and both teams have solid backlines so can see a lack of goals and a hard, contested game.
 

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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 15

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