AFL 2018 - AFL Round 23

[Bontempele]

Think there's some massive value in some alternative totals this week. Could be wrong, but id love to hear langdon and mookie's thoughts on this.

Last few years we've seen some massive totals in games in the last round where teams are only a mathematical chance to make finals, or games where the players are thinking about footy trip already.

There's a few games that in my opinion could easy clear the TGS and push 200+

Port vs Bombers - the only thing that worries me is Port's defense, but if Essendon play the attacking footy they love I could see this going 190-200ish.
Tigers vs Dogs - Would like to hear more of why mookie thinks this could push 200, my worry is dogs lack of scoring power.
Blues vs Adelaide - Bruise free footy, once again worry is carlton's lack of scoring power.
Brisbane vs WCE - If the forecast clears, I see this clearing 200 easy. 220 not out of the question
Saints vs North - This is the game I love. Have gone 2U on o215.5 at $10. Wouldnt be suprised for 230-240.

 

[mookieb]

Think there's some massive value in some alternative totals this week. Could be wrong, but id love to hear langdon and mookie's thoughts on this.

Last few years we've seen some massive totals in games in the last round where teams are only a mathematical chance to make finals, or games where the players are thinking about footy trip already.

There's a few games that in my opinion could easy clear the TGS and push 200+

Port vs Bombers - the only thing that worries me is Port's defense, but if Essendon play the attacking footy they love I could see this going 190-200ish.
Tigers vs Dogs - Would like to hear more of why mookie thinks this could push 200, my worry is dogs lack of scoring power.
Blues vs Adelaide - Bruise free footy, once again worry is carlton's lack of scoring power.
Brisbane vs WCE - If the forecast clears, I see this clearing 200 easy. 220 not out of the question
Saints vs North - This is the game I love. Have gone 2U on o215.5 at $10. Wouldnt be suprised for 230-240.

I don't do totals, but it appears that current totals are around what you would expect from a regular season game. My expectations is that several games have the potential to be very high scoring primarily because it's the last game of the season and some teams will be playing a very, fast and loose style of footy. This round we have no game totals over 180. Previous years in R23 you are looking at roughly 5 games going over this figure.

From what I can see the best opportunities are 2 teams with nothing to play for and both wanting to play an exciting brand of footy. Etihad and Gabba seem like likely grounds for a big score. This means that NM vs StK is probably the best bet.

NM had the highest score last year 209 vs Bris. 2016 saw scores of 215, 223 and 264 (Saints). 2015 - 252 points. 2014 - 224, 224, 250.

Already this year Melb vs StK 236 points, Bris vs NM, 211 points, NM vs Syd 202 points, NM vs Ess 233 points, NM vs Bris 228 points.

Brown going for the Coleman, Waite after a bag in his last game - game could go large.

 

[Jammer]

Have backed Hawks at the line 10.5 and straight out $2.50.

They have come in but still think 7 and half start is a good play.

Their record up there is first rate.... and I like Clarkson's game plan on the small congested ground

I think the Swans and Buddy have got pretty lucky in two of their last three matches playing injury
riddled teams

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Seems like no love for Port to beat Essendon. Surely Port hold pride and the fsns get behind them.
Agree with everyone saying value in Hawks. Just as a supporter im too nervous to bet on them

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[demon_fanatic]

Time to put on my pseudo science hat on and see if I can jag a few results.

Realistically Port can't make finals, but they have been embarrassed 2 weeks in a row and for pride they have plenty of incentive to play well this weekend. Ess gave it a massive crack vs Rich and fell short so they could well be flat this week. Prediction -Port to cover.

Geel need to win and GC very unlikely to be able to maintain the intensity they showed in the Q clash. Prediction - Geel to cover, TT over and margins around 100+.

Rich vs WB - bit of a dead rubber for Rich and WB have won a few on the trot so no pressure on either side. Prediction - pressure free shootout - TGS over.

Freo vs Coll - Coll need to win and Freo will have plenty to play for having been humiliated last week. Prediction - Freo cover.

Carl vs Ade - Ade finished the second half of the season strongly and Carl got a "respectable" loss last week so we should be up for a pressure free game. Prediction - Ade TT over, TGS over.

Syd vs Hawks - Plenty to play for. Should be a high pressure game. Expect Hawks to be right in this. Prediction - Hawks to cover.

Bris vs WC - Bris finished their season on a high in the Q Clash and I expect them to be flat this week. WC need to win for top 2. Prediction - WC to cover, WC 40+, TGS over (bets dependent on rain and if Darling, Kennedy play).

Melb vs GWS - assuming Coll win then this is a dead rubber. Should be a pressure free shoot out. Prediction - TGS over.

NM vs StK - both teams with respectable losses last week. Playing at ES I expect both teams will look for a shootout in the last game of the round. Prediction - TGS well over (might hit 220+).

Melb are playing for a home final it definitely isn't a dead rubber if Hawks win sat night..lose and we play away in Sydney

 

[demon_fanatic]

Isn't buddy out with a groin and possibly Parker?? Crazy good odds for Hawks.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I also don't get how both teams to score 74 at b364 is now 1.95 from 1.80.... def agree both will score freely.. maybe saints will have a nightmare in front of goal.

 

[Sick of losing]

Does the moderator/s of this forum supply contact information of members posting here to bookmakers in exchange for a bonus or cash kickback? Just wondering

 

[thecatattack]

any bookies offering to get on hawkins 10+ goals?

 

[langdon19]

I also don't get how both teams to score 74 at b364 is now 1.95 from 1.80.... def agree both will score freely.. maybe saints will have a nightmare in front of goal.

Has the line increased?

 

[come on oliver]

I also don't get how both teams to score 74 at b364 is now 1.95 from 1.80.... def agree both will score freely.. maybe saints will have a nightmare in front of goal.

Any bookies outside of bet365 offering this

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Has the line increased?

Total dropped a couple of points, they opened at 179.5.

Any bookies outside of bet365 offering this

Ladbrokes do, both to score 80 is 2.45 on there. Not sure of any others.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Total dropped a couple of points, they opened at 179.5.

Ladbrokes do, both to score 80 is 2.45 on there. Not sure of any others.

it went from $1.80 to both get 74 to $1.95. ill be hitting the pointsbet spread as well on this match.. i think if it falls short of 177 it will only be by like 5-10 pts max but if it clears it has the potential to go like 20 plus over if it turns into an exhibition bruise free type end to end, i know theyve come in but i don't understand how hawks arent basically $2.00 or $1.90 even pick with swans if Buddy is gone... ???? weird. they play scg so well.. maybe no buddy will make sydney unpredictable and stuff the Hawks structure up a bit i dont know but I am not sold on Sydneys form revival, yes Mcveigh has added great poise down back but they are still very reliant on Buddy brilliance to win games at the moment. will be getting on Ronke most goals and 3 goals plus if Buddy out

 

[squeaky1000]

Early plays, 1 unit:
Geelong -75.5
Hawthorn +10.5, H2H $2.45
Eagles -11.5
Saints North over 176.5

 

[Sabbathen]

it went from $1.80 to both get 74 to $1.95. ill be hitting the pointsbet spread as well on this match.. i think if it falls short of 177 it will only be by like 5-10 pts max but if it clears it has the potential to go like 20 plus over if it turns into an exhibition bruise free type end to end, i know theyve come in but i don't understand how hawks arent basically $2.00 or $1.90 even pick with swans if Buddy is gone... ???? weird. they play scg so well.. maybe no buddy will make sydney unpredictable and stuff the Hawks structure up a bit i dont know but I am not sold on Sydneys form revival, yes Mcveigh has added great poise down back but they are still very reliant on Buddy brilliance to win games at the moment. will be getting on Ronke most goals and 3 goals plus if Buddy out

I don’t understand your logic. You say the Swans are too reliant on Buddy and can’t win without him but you are going to bet on their other forward to kick 3+?

 

[demon_fanatic]

I don’t understand your logic. You say the Swans are too reliant on Buddy and can’t win without him but you are going to bet on their other forward to kick 3+?

Um yes if he's out ronke will be a main target... The last few games vs pies n gws they don't win if not for buddy

 

[Sabbathen]

Um yes if he's out ronke will be a main target... The last few games vs pies n gws they don't win if not for buddy

Lol this logic of forwards kicking bags because the full forward is out has been disproved so many times before. Ronke is a first year player, he’s played 16 games of AFL. Of those 16 he had a 7 goal game of brilliance without Buddy, his only other game where he kicked more than 2 goals, Franklin was playing. He’s also played 7 games this year where he was kept goal less. Those stats suggest if Ronke kicks 3+ goals Sydney more than likely win this game. The fact you think Hawthorn should be clear favourites but Ronke will kick 3+ makes no sense to me.

 

[RooTed]

TGS this week. Like Blues/Crows to go Under 177.5 and Swans/Hawks to go over 138.5. Think most lines hard to touch this week. Above is ave. scores for each team YTD (less 1 highest and 1 lowest score they've had). Also like Hawks line or maybe H2H. Good Luck.

 

[Keystone agony]

View attachment 547341

TGS this week. Like Blues/Crows to go Under 177.5 and Swans/Hawks to go over 138.5. Think most lines hard to touch this week. Above is ave. scores for each team YTD (less 1 highest and 1 lowest score they've had). Also like Hawks line or maybe H2H. Good Luck.

Why not Geel/GC suns based on your model?

edit and even North saints unders you have out by 18.

 

[chrisdon16]

View attachment 547341

TGS this week. Like Blues/Crows to go Under 177.5 and Swans/Hawks to go over 138.5. Think most lines hard to touch this week. Above is ave. scores for each team YTD (less 1 highest and 1 lowest score they've had). Also like Hawks line or maybe H2H. Good Luck.

The Swans/Hawks line was set at 137.5 because there was 20mm forecast

 

[RooTed]

Why not Geel/GC suns based on your model?

edit and even North saints unders you have out by 18.

I think Cats will go ballistic and the Saints/North could be a blowout for Brown and Waite and indoors.

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[RooTed]

The Swans/Hawks line was set at 137.5 because there was 20mm forecast

Not sure if it is just because rain or because previous games bt these 2. Low scores usually. Week out weather forecasting is a hard job. SCG could miss the rain totally.

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[Keystone agony]

I think Cats will go ballistic and the Saints/North could be a blowout for Brown and Waite and indoors.

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Why have you not taken that into account with the numbers posted?

 

[RooTed]

Why have you not taken that into account with the numbers posted?

Because they're not stats. Just my opinions.

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[Prochard123]

they took the Sydney team votes down at beteasy :O