AFL 2018 - AFL Round 23

[Sabbathen]

Nah I checked before and the top 4 market was gone

Yeah it was up when I posted. I had a brain fart, Collingwood just have to win to secure a top 4 spot, doesn't matter by how much.

*Edit - it's back up but irrelevant anyway, BetEasy wont let you place a stake on it even though they give you a multi price. You could have backed that at $1.28 and layed Collingwood on betfair for a profit

 

[maskmcgee]

Under AFL futures
The risk is Hawthorn beat Sydney by more than Collingwood beat Fremantle and pinch 4th.

Collingwood are third, if they win they finish top 4 regardless.

 

[Sabbathen]

Collingwood are third, if they win they finish top 4 regardless.

Yeah see above. You also cant place that bet even though BetEasy give you a multi price. Otherwise you could also multi Sydney or Hawks win and top 4 and then lay them on betfair for a guaranteed profit.

 

[Robo87]

Small nibble on Menegola tomorrow-
Menegola listed half forward flank, previously kicked 2.2 on Gold Coast earlier this year. Equal 4th highest averaging GS for the cats behind hawkins, menzel & danger. Thinking a few cats can stack a few goals on.
0.5u Menegola 2g+ @4.50 b365
0.3u Menegola 3g+ @15 b365

Also FYI - just discovered SB now have a '2g+ goalscorer' market.

 

[HTPunter]

Got burnt last week but back on the “Richmond don't stop mids getting big disposal numbers” wagon.

Any player to get 40+ touches @ $5.50
Josh Dunkley 30+ @ $2.60
Dunkley O102.5 @ $1.87

 

[HTPunter]

Ed Langdon over 89.5 fantasy points @ 1.89 (Sportsbet), Tommy Sheridan over 67.5 fantasy points @ 1.88 (Beteasy).

Both play much better in Perth - Langdon 9/12 over and Sheridan 3/3 this season.

Good find.

For those like me who are late comers and didn't get on early like andwhenitcomes, Langdon is out to over 91.5 @ $1.80 at Sportsbet. The remaining value now that I can see is 88.5 @ $1.88 on Pointsbet.

 

[Browney2006]

$65 devon smith 30+ disposals 11$ at TAB cause yolo round 23

I generally feel for you, so close. You must have been screaming at the tv for him to get his 30th

 

[FrankGrimes]

$65 devon smith 30+ disposals 11$ at TAB cause yolo round 23

Stiff mate 1 short it seems.

 

[dontlimitme]

Was on him last week at 15s as well good times

 

[dontlimitme]

(got 28 last week)

 

[X_box_X]

Bet wisely.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I ask again exactly how were Port favourites?

 

[Browney2006]

So now the o/u totals have jumped around a fair bit. Where does everyone see the value?

 

[Browney2006]

Gone Hawkins most goals in his match into riewoldt at tab pays about $3 when you add multiplier in caddy a danger but I'll take it. Also like freo Ed Langdon 25 disp at tab or ubet $2.50.. Plays well at home often except for a 10 poss disaster in the derby.. other three past home games gone 31,28,26.. fyfe in May hurt him a bit

Might as well throw Brown in there as well as the saints/north game is a dead rubber. Takes it up to about $11

 

[LukeParkerno1]

So now the o/u totals have jumped around a fair bit. Where does everyone see the value?

Unders in the Swans/Hawks

It’s a notoriously low scoring game and we’ve had a bit of rain with more forecasted.

Overs in the North/Saints. Neither side are going to care a lot about defence

 

[demon_fanatic]

Might as well throw Brown in there as well as the saints/north game is a dead rubber. Takes it up to about $11

hmmmm its waites farewell too and brown hasn't been in form for weeeeks

 

[Browney2006]

hmmmm its waites farewell too and brown hasn't been in form for weeeeks

That’s true, however I feel Brown will know the equation for the Coleman by that stage if he needs 7-8 goals they will try and get him there.

 

[mac23]

0.5u Bont 2+ goals $3.25 SB

 

[thecatattack]

Anywhere I can get on Hawkins 10+ goals?

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Tom Stewart over 19.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet).

Excluding Brisbane game (injured), 13/19 over this season, 9/12 over in wins, 6/8 over at Kardinia Park.

 

[maskmcgee]

Had a 2 leg multi so I could get a odds boost, Essendon and Geelong to win, looked at the cashout value, expecting it to be all but 10 or 20 cents of the full winnings, but the cashout they are offering me would effectively have Geelong's winning odds at $1.20, not $1.005.

 

[Browney2006]

Had a 2 leg multi so I could get a odds boost, Essendon and Geelong to win, looked at the cashout value, expecting it to be all but 10 or 20 cents of the full winnings, but the cashout they are offering me would effectively have Geelong's winning odds at $1.20, not $1.005.

Well yeah, that’s how cashouts work. It isn’t the straight winnings from the legs that have got up, the betting agency’s take a decent percentage off. You’re usually better off hedging than taking cashouts.

 

[Keystone agony]

Gold coast at 21s and the line overs for me. Maybe target the first half line 36 ish.

Geelong no longer need to win. They can be very up and down mentally for me.

2u Barlow < 90.5 lads
1.5U Menegola >101.5 Pbet
1.5U Bowes >75.5 Beteasy
1U Bowes >17.5 dis Sbet exotics
0.5U Bowes over Scooter, May, Harbrow, Henderson @3 PBet
0.2U Bowes top GC suns scorer @9 Pbet
0.2U Bowes over Swallow, Touk, touhy, Stewart @4.75 Pointsbet

Bowes pure onball now

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Ed Langdon over 89.5 fantasy points @ 1.89 (Sportsbet), Tommy Sheridan over 67.5 fantasy points @ 1.88 (Beteasy).

Both play much better in Perth - Langdon 9/12 over and Sheridan 3/3 this season.

One more on this: Ed Langdon 25+ disposals is 2.50 with Ladbrokes, hit this in 10/12 games in Perth.

 

[sneak]

2.5u gcs +78.5/wb +45.5 @3.80