Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[katmanblue]

Agree. I thought last year we were too tall in many games. I think we will play 2 of Harry Casboult & SOS. Charlie will play a lot of midfield

Bolts said Charlie wont play much midfield in his interview.

are you calling shenanigans?

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[skadoosh]

How is Dow's tank? Should we expect 60-70% game time like Samo, Fisher etc?

 

[RedFury]

Only managed to view the one training session down at South Melbourne this off-season. Just some random flognostications.

Keep tabs on the following:

• Charlie Curnow - Forget the talk about "looks a beast" (which he does) and "looks ripped" (which he also does), the thing that really impressed me was that he really looks exceptionally strong and developed through the core now. Expect a more powerful player in terms of being able to shake off a would-be tackler like Robert Harvey used to do. Once he gets a real handle on what he's capable of, Charlie will start putting some really exciting quarters together during the 2nd half of the season.
• Jacob Weitering - Another who's matured through the core over summer and walks with renewed purpose. Looking forward to seeing him quietly taking over games with his intercept marking and directing traffic out of the back half.
• Harrison Macreadie - Even though he'll need another preseason or two to fully develop into his physical potential, his body shape has changed quite noticeably over the summer and now resembles that of an AFL footballer. Has good acceleration, excellent speed, strong endurance, a nice side step and reads the flight of the ball very well. I expect him to force his way into our best 22 during the first half of the season. Given that Rowe & ASOS aren't longterm solutions and that Marchbank & Plowman have proven to be somewhat injury-prone, talk of trading Macreadie is pure nonsense.

Walking the tightrope:

• Darcy Lang - I'm nowhere near as bullish about Lang's prospects as many on this board. Despite being serviced by a very dominant contested midfield which included the likes of Selwood, Dangerfield, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie, etc, Lang only managed to find himself with the ball in his possession 15 times per game on average. That's one less time than the contact-shy Boekhorst managed to get on the end of the chain and we were missing Cripps & Ed from the equation just to put it in some perspective. Credit where credit's due, one area that Lang really developed during 2017 was the defensive side of his game. While some may point to a lack of opportunity at the Cats, one needs to remember that the likes of Bews, Murdoch, McCarthy & Parsons were often preferred options and none of those players are exactly known for "lighting it up". There's a reason why SOS refused to part with more than a 4th Round pick in a shitty draft for Lang and until he begins to produce on a regular basis I see him as another "stocking filler" in the mould of Sumner, Lamb, Phillips, Smedts, Shaw, Gorringe, Buckley, Boekhorst, Jaksch, etc. Here's hoping he proves me wrong.
• Harry McKay - Really needs to find a way to get his body right. All the potential in the world means diddly squat if you can't get on the park. While McKay's in absolutely no danger of being delisted any time soon, SOS isn't one to sit on his hands and young Harry may find himself having to contend with more than just Ben Silvagni looking to leapfrog him. Harry performing well may just prove to be the difference between SOS using our first pick on a KPF such as Lukosius, Williams or one of the King Bros or spending it on a mid such as Bytel, Walsh or Rankine.
• Andrew Phillips - When up and running big Sauce is a very good tap ruckman, but therein lies the problem.....how to get him up & running??? Injury & Phillips seem to go hand-in-hand, and even when fit Phillips needs plenty of work under his belt before he hits his stride. Was the drafting of De Koning the first sign that SOS has shifted his gaze elsewhere???

Much ado 'bout nuthin':

• Lachie Plowman - Bemused how many people here can't fit young Lachie into their best 22, generally because of height. Interesting fact was that last season he was generally matched up against small forwards where he excelled and IMO was our second best defender behind Docherty. Given that 2017 was easily Plowman's best season and his kicking is rated as elite, I can't see me pushing him out of my best 22 any time soon.
• Matty Wright - Another who's under-appreciated and under-valued, most probably because we picked him up as a delisted free agent. As a small forward who can also play as a genuine midfielder no one else on our list approaches his output inside F50. Not Murphy, not Garlett, not Pickett, not Lang, not SPS, not Fisher, not Cuningham.....no one. "If only Levi could kick straight"....."Jack's figures would look so much better if he kicked 25.11 instead of 19.17" I hear everyone say. In a world where accuracy in front of goal is spiralling down the S-bend Wright flushes it 78% of the time and is an elite kick at goal. My biggest complaint about Matty Wright is that we don't use him enough inside 50. When and if SPS, Fisher, Garlett, Pickett, Cuningham and/or Lang demonstrate they can perform that role better than Wright then they can have his spot, but not before. At this stage he's light years ahead of our other small forward/mids.
• Jack Silvagni - Given JSOS wasn't expected to play any senior footy for 2 years after we drafted him, fair to say 28 games later that he's ahead of the curve most of us would've set for him after he was drafted. In many ways his future could be tied to the fortunes of Harry McKay. Should SOS choose to cover his bases due to a lack of performance from McKay, drafting players such as Lukocius or Williams along with the BOSS could prove fatal for Jack's future at the Blues.

New Blood:

• Paddy Dow - Barring injury will definitely play Round 1. Is it just me or does Dow look taller than his allotted 184cm??? Certainly looks taller than O'Brien who is listed at the same height. Reads the ball off hands or feet quicker than most so expect a lot of intercept possessions from him. Needs to tidy up his kicking though.
• Lochie O'Brien - Will need to spend some time at VFL level to improve the contested side of his game before being unleashed at AFL level. No one expects him to become a Crippsesque inside beast, but you'd like to think he'd have a good chance of ending up with the ball in a one-on-one contest. Already has the disposal skills, speed and endurance to cope at AFL level. Would expect to see him debut at some point this season.
• Tom De Koning - Highly contentious taking this kid with Pick 30 for mine based upon what I saw of him at the U18 Champs. Was there a case for taking a developing ruckman??? Sure.....but a project player with Pick 30??? Not sure he has the natural aggression to play the role and he certainly doesn't have the endurance required. On the positive side, he does have good hands, leads up hard and fast at the ball carrier when playing up forward and is a nice kick. Would much rather SOS had taken another contested (balanced or inside) mid here. Having said that, here's to hoping De Koning makes every post a winner.

Wild Cards:

• Jarrod Pickett - According to the scribes Pickett's had a strong preseason and elevated his fitness levels considerably. Always looks a much better player when he presents up at the ball carrier rather than forever ducking out the back looking for the lazy gimme over the top. Would much prefer seeing him play percentage football by playing in front where he remains in the contest should the ball be spoiled or deflected from its intended path. Important year for Pickett.
• Jarrod Garlett - Did you know that 50% of Garlett's possessions in his 2nd year at the Suns were contested??? Has very strong hands in the stoppage does Mr Garlett and is quite adept at ripping the ball out of an opponent's grasp. Wouldn't mind seeing him handed over to Fraser, Amos & Stanton to be developed at VFL level as a balanced mid. While Garlett would seem to have all the attributes to perform this role my main queries concern whether he has the endurance and the ability to find enough of the ball to warrant using him in that position. Had a very ordinary year at WAFL level last year so has the job in front of him with the step up in class. As for the ******* hair-do??? FMD.

Treading Water:

• Don't panic if SPS, Fisher, Macreadie &/or Williamson don't seem to make much headway this season. Think most second year players find the preseason a genuine slog while their bodies still try to cope with the increased workload. Just ask Weitering, SOSOS & Cunners.
• People will need to temper their expectations of Matthew Kennedy after having a heavily disrupted preseason. May be well into the 2nd half of the season before he begins to really display his wares.

List Needs:

• 2 X KPF - Not yet sold on Harry, SOSOS is a work in progress and Kerr is a project player.
• 4 X Contested Mids - 2 Inside Mids & 2 Balanced Mids. Still think our midfield is easily the weakest part of our team and those currently on our list really suck when it comes to running both ways and applying defensive pressure. You can have 2 Rances, 3 Levers and 4 Dochertys in the back half, but unless the midfield are prepared to do their share the defence will always struggle.
• 2 X Quality Ruckmen - Notice the use of the word "quality" as opposed to "project" Ruckmen.
• I know Kinghtmare copped a caning for giving SOS a D+ for his draft efforts this year, but I don't think he was all that far off the mark. Between his trading & drafting I could only give him a "C". Last season we finished 17th for clearances, 17th for inside 50s and last for goals scored. For me this emphasised our need for contested mids (both balanced & inside), yet out of the 12 players SOS bought into the club he could only snare 2.

Trade Targets:

• Brodie Smith (Crows RFA) - There aren't many running defenders you'd put in the same "elite class" (and I don't throw that phrase around lightly) as Docherty, but Smith is certainly one of them. Given that the Crows are up to Pussy's Bow with their TPP and Smith will be coming off a knee reco means he may not get the contract he's hoping for. Potentially frees up Williamson or Byrne to play up on a wing or in the middle. Nice size with excellent speed, endurance and exceptional disposal by foot who can play tall or small. Would be surprised if something like $1.75m-$2m over 4 years wouldn't get the job done.
• Mitch Wallis (Doggies RFA) - One who genuinely flies under the radar of supporters from opposition clubs. I find myself tossing up whether to rank him as an "A" or "B" grade inside mid, but around 75% of his disposals result in retained possession. So not only does he find the ball in the stoppage, but 3 times out of 4 he does something positive with it. There's nothing overly flash about Wallis, he just runs all day and gets the job done without fuss or fanfare. The Wallis blood runs deep down at the Western Oval and he's considered a heart & soul player there so I'm not sure how easy it would be to get him to move. Think you'd need to offer at least $500-$550k for 4 years to make it happen. I suspect these are the deals we acquired Agresta to assist with.

Draft Targets:

Way too early for this, but I'll take a stab based upon what I think we still need.

• 1st Rounder - Best Mid available. Adding Rankine/Walsh & Wallis to SPS, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Cripps & Kennedy would really make for a pretty strong midfield.....well at least on paper anyway.
• 2nd Rounder (1) Best Available Ruck. Can't see Williams being available this low down, but Riley Bowman may well be. Probably the best performed underage ruck from last years TAC comp.
• 2nd Rounder (2) Will probably be forced to take the BOSS as a Father/Son here.

Still think we'll find it pretty tough this year, but expect the likes of Weitering, Charlie, Cuningham and, to a lesser extent, SOSOS to get hold of some games in the second half of the season. Next year will be the time we begin to Serge back up the ladder. Would much prefer to see how Garlett, Macreadie, Kerridge, Dow, O'Brien & Lang perform in the JLT series before naming a Round 1 potential 22.

Great post! Even without the content, it deserves a like for use of the term 'flognostications'.

 

[ShanDog]

cost us the Betts pick didn't he if not Betts himself?

Came out way later that Betts only wanted an extra $50k to stay which - surely - we could easily have afforded. But yes, the compo pick was lost.

 

[Metalcrusher]

What we can't fall into the trap of, this is especially true with talls, is getting 1 or so prime picks every 3 years, we need to keep them coming through the door to get that staggered/layered effect in development. We sat on LEVI for years without really bringing anyone in of note. You keep them churning through, sort the chaff from the wheat and you get a nice age spread on blokes that "take time" to develop.

Make no mistake, there will be casualties in BOSSSOS's list numbers, but that is to be expected. As someone said above, not all with talent will make it AND not all those without that elite talent WON'T. Sometimes hard work, resilience, application to task and never say die attitude speaks louder than raw talent.

 

[CJMB]

How is Dow's tank? Should we expect 60-70% game time like Samo, Fisher etc?

I'd guess the normal aim for more midfield types is around 70-75% for first year, 75-80% second year and 80-85% 3rd year. Samo & Fish had 73% and 70% respectively and it's fairly well know that Samo had an interrupted preseason. Dow appears pretty fit, especially considering his shoulder surgery late last year, so I don't see why he couldn't put in a 75% average across the season.

Forwards & defenders are generally expected to have an increased rate of TOG increase. Weitbot's first two years were 75% and 86% while Charlie went from 66% to 83%. Willo and Macreadie managed 75% and 76% in their debut seasons. Jack managed 79% in his first then dropped to 76%, probably due to that game where he left the field pretty early with an injury (from memory).

 

[Juddernaut08]

Understand what your saying but until the time comes when he's either pushed out of the side or his performances drop to a level to not have him picked in the side i dont see the point in singling him out . People are simply scapegoating him because of yes again a few easy shots or as stated previously their own frustrations . I dont care if he's 10 metres out from goal or 50 out his tally reads 34-18 . He's not the only one to kick it out of bounds and until someone can show me not only his statistics for this instance but all oob records for all players we shouldnt assume he's any worse than most players. Therefore i shall stick with 34-18 which is a very good conversion rate that cant be denied .

This is very small-minded thinking

A forward's job is more than just how many goals he kicks.

-Spacing
-Defensive Pressure
-Goal Assists
-Momentum and Confidence

Levi is a passable set shot from around the 50. Anyone can kick from inside the goalsquare.

The problem is that anywhere from 20-40 metres which should be a comfortable kick, we have no confidence in him.

So it does matter where he takes his shots. If he's only reliable from within the goalsquare, and he can't make it from mid-range (20-40m) it's an absolute momentum killer.

 

[LordLucifer]

Came out way later that Betts only wanted an extra $50k to stay which - surely - we could easily have afforded. But yes, the compo pick was lost.

$50K ..... ??

We couldn't find another 50 G's for the best small forward in the comp but somehow managed to dig up $750K for Thomas.

Pick #7 for Jacksh & Whiley instead of snaffling Two-Metre Peter.




**** you Mick Malthouse, ******** extraordinaire !!

 

[CJMB]

This is very small-minded thinking

A forward's job is more than just how many goals he kicks.

-Spacing
-Defensive Pressure
-Goal Assists
-Momentum and Confidence

Levi is a passable set shot from around the 50. Anyone can kick from inside the goalsquare.

The problem is that anywhere from 20-40 metres which should be a comfortable kick, we have no confidence in him.

So it does matter where he takes his shots. If he's only reliable from within the goalsquare, and he can't make it from mid-range (20-40m) it's an absolute momentum killer.

On top of the KPIs you mentioned above I think you also have to consider that relief ruck role Levi plays. Is Harry ready to handle that? If not Harry, who else?

At the end of the day, Levi is what he is. He'll kick his 1.5 goals, take a few big marks, suck in some key defenders and let Kreuze have a breather on the bench every now and then. When Harry (or Pat or TDK?) can match Levi's output we'll start to see a changing of the guard. But until then, Levi will do his thing and at least set a bit of a bar for the younger guys to achieve if they want to get a game. He'll make them earn selection rather than be gifted games.

Best case scenario for me is that Levi comes out firing in career best form but come round 22 Harry/Pat has forced his way in and overtaken him to wear the crown as the big dog up front. Then in a couple of years time we'll hopefully see some pressure/competition coming on from the younger guys beneath them. In 2019 we might have a tall forward hierarchy of Charlie > Harry > Jack > Pat > Tom > Ben where there's some flexibility through key/tall positions and the guys in the 22 really have to perform to maintain their spot with the other guys biting at their heels for a game.

 

[Juddernaut08]

On top of the KPIs you mentioned above I think you also have to consider that relief ruck role Levi plays. Is Harry ready to handle that? If not Harry, who else?

At the end of the day, Levi is what he is. He'll kick his 1.5 goals, take a few big marks, suck in some key defenders and let Kreuze have a breather on the bench every now and then. When Harry (or Pat or TDK?) can match Levi's output we'll start to see a changing of the guard. But until then, Levi will do his thing and at least set a bit of a bar for the younger guys to achieve if they want to get a game. He'll make them earn selection rather than be gifted games.

Best case scenario for me is that Levi comes out firing in career best form but come round 22 Harry/Pat has forced his way in and overtaken him to wear the crown as the big dog up front. Then in a couple of years time we'll hopefully see some pressure/competition coming on from the younger guys beneath them. In 2019 we might have a tall forward hierarchy of Charlie > Harry > Jack > Pat > Tom > Ben where there's some flexibility through key/tall positions and the guys in the 22 really have to perform to maintain their spot with the other guys biting at their heels for a game.

Yeah good point, given McKay's injury history I'd prefer if he wasn't stretched further by doing ruck duties.

I do think that Levi holds his spot for this year, however only because of our age profile.

If relief ruck is a key reason he's being given a spot, then I think the writing is on the wall. Other teams have shown that the game is moving towards "small-ball" with speed and pressure being the keys. They've been playing around with much smaller men playing in the ruck for spurts and I could see the same happening for us.

 

[Robertio]

$50K ..... ??

We couldn't find another 50 G's for the best small forward in the comp but somehow managed to dig up $750K for Thomas.

Pick #7 for Jacksh & Whiley instead of snaffling Two-Metre Peter.




**** you Mick Malthouse, ******** extraordinaire !!

That last line well said.

 

[Juddernaut08]

$50K ..... ??

We couldn't find another 50 G's for the best small forward in the comp but somehow managed to dig up $750K for Thomas.

Pick #7 for Jacksh & Whiley instead of snaffling Two-Metre Peter.




**** you Mick Malthouse, ******** extraordinaire !!

this x100

 

[Mr_Plow]

I love Malthouse.

We are where we are (properly structured organisation) because of him.

He was ahead of his time.

 

[Iamcarlton]

On top of the KPIs you mentioned above I think you also have to consider that relief ruck role Levi plays. Is Harry ready to handle that? If not Harry, who else?

At the end of the day, Levi is what he is. He'll kick his 1.5 goals, take a few big marks, suck in some key defenders and let Kreuze have a breather on the bench every now and then. When Harry (or Pat or TDK?) can match Levi's output we'll start to see a changing of the guard. But until then, Levi will do his thing and at least set a bit of a bar for the younger guys to achieve if they want to get a game. He'll make them earn selection rather than be gifted games.

Best case scenario for me is that Levi comes out firing in career best form but come round 22 Harry/Pat has forced his way in and overtaken him to wear the crown as the big dog up front. Then in a couple of years time we'll hopefully see some pressure/competition coming on from the younger guys beneath them. In 2019 we might have a tall forward hierarchy of Charlie > Harry > Jack > Pat > Tom > Ben where there's some flexibility through key/tall positions and the guys in the 22 really have to perform to maintain their spot with the other guys biting at their heels for a game.

Thats way too much common sense for the closed door attitude people have towards Levi Casboult .

 

[Juddernaut08]

Thats way too much common sense for the closed door attitude people have towards Levi Casboult .

What closed door attitude? I said in the very next reply that I think he keeps his spot this year, but has too many deficiencies to keep in the team.

My response to you was mainly an explanation of why just looking at his goal/behinds conversion does not tell the whole story, which is why your thinking was small-minded.

In the NBA there are a few centres who do nothing but dunk. Their shooting percentage becomes very high compared to those who take longer range shots, because it's almost impossible to miss a dunk. Doesn't mean these centres are better shooters. If they're not right in the paint they're not useful. Same as Levi when not in the goalsquare.

 

[Iamcarlton]

What closed door attitude? I said in the very next reply that I think he keeps his spot this year, but has too many deficiencies to keep in the team.

My response to you was mainly an explanation of why just looking at his goal/behinds conversion does not tell the whole story, which is why your thinking was small-minded.

In the NBA there are a few centres who do nothing but dunk. Their shooting percentage becomes very high compared to those who take longer range shots, because it's almost impossible to miss a dunk. Doesn't mean these centres are better shooters. If they're not right in the paint they're not useful. Same as Levi when not in the goalsquare.

Means that many people have made their minds up on him no matter what he does . When in actual fact he made improvements last year and we all should have been celebrating a big improvement on the year before which was almost a disaster for him . And a continuation of that form last year 2017 would have definately spelt the end . Was talking in general not specifically .
Dont really want to get into comparing NBA to AFL even tho i enjoy the NBA .

 

[Juddernaut08]

Means that many people have made their minds up on him no matter what he does . When in actual fact he made improvements last year and we all should have been celebrating a big improvement on the year before which was almost a disaster for him . And a continuation of that form last year 2017 would have definately spelt the end . Was talking in general not specifically .
Dont really want to get into comparing NBA to AFL even tho i enjoy the NBA .

fair enough

 

[Jimmae]

I'd guess the normal aim for more midfield types is around 70-75% for first year, 75-80% second year and 80-85% 3rd year. Samo & Fish had 73% and 70% respectively and it's fairly well know that Samo had an interrupted preseason. Dow appears pretty fit, especially considering his shoulder surgery late last year, so I don't see why he couldn't put in a 75% average across the season.

Forwards & defenders are generally expected to have an increased rate of TOG increase. Weitbot's first two years were 75% and 86% while Charlie went from 66% to 83%. Willo and Macreadie managed 75% and 76% in their debut seasons. Jack managed 79% in his first then dropped to 76%, probably due to that game where he left the field pretty early with an injury (from memory).

Fisher played predominantly off half-forward. His tank remains a concern, and it'll be interesting to see his pre-season figures.

 

[ferrisb]

I love Malthouse.

We are we where are (properly structured organisation) because of him.

He was ahead of his time.

He was the egotistical num-nuts we had to have.

- Paul Keating

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Great work BUT your review of Lang don’t seem to have any track watching evidence but you’re basing it on stats from darcys time at Geelong. I thought you were going to give some insight other than just an opinion. I don’t mean to be harsh but I could of wrote that and you’re definitely accurate but you lead in with you watched them at training and I was assuming more insight.

But ya didn't did ya??? As usual you left it up to someone else to do all the dirty work. FFS. Training reviews go into the training thread whereas random flognostications go into the list management thread. Everyone knows that. That's the way it's done, that's the way it's always been done, and that's the way it will continue to be done until Chief decides otherwise. Now stroke your own keys and come up with your own flognostications.

Great write up!

The only thing i would say about Lang, fracturing a fibula, would make it difficult to cement a spot in 2017. He is only a young, 22, if he gets his body right, he will be a steal for a 4th round downgrade

He's an interesting one Lang. People here rarely see any middle ground with him, including me....it's very much either black or white. Whatever he produced during his junior days is getting onto 5 years ago now, so I'm not sure how relevant it is anymore. For a 4th round pick in a poor draft, SOS is hardly going to poop the bed if it doesn't work out.........although we could've got Roughsedge with that pick. (I know, I know. I've really gotta let that one go....)

One thing I've come to accept about making 42 list changes in 25 months is that many of those were necessary to bring about a change in culture. Anywhere up to half of those players won't make it as regular AFL players.....they're just "stocking fillers" until we're able to procure even more talent. I still think we're 8-10 players away from having a list with enough depth capable of making finals. One needs to allow that up to 20% of our playing list may be unavailable at any given time due to injury, form or suspension.

Your post earnt a like.

Your use of Serge back up the ladder deserves a dedicated

Slack ferrisb. Missed the connection between S-bends & flushes. Then again, I did miss the fact Brodie Smith had just been re-signed. Cheeky bastards must have announced it while I was taking a nanna nap.

Expansive footy based post. I agree with a lot of it. And disagree with bits n pieces of it. Which is the fate of any good expansive footy post.

Def agree with your summation. 2019 is the start of the serge. One more year of green/greening shoot spotting first.

They're slowly but surely getting there TW. Big fan of what they've done with the upgrading of the coaching contingent and list management team. Always now looking at how they can improve all aspects of the football dept. Thought of you the other night when I put on Seger's Nightmoves followed by Petty's Don't come around here no more when breaking in the new power amp.

That'd be because he is: stands about 186 now, I think?

At least. Reckon he was closer to Kennedy's height when I saw him.

 

[TooBlue14]

But ya didn't did ya??? As usual you left it up to someone else to do all the dirty work. FFS. Training reviews go into the training thread whereas random flognostications go into the list management thread. Everyone knows that. That's the way it's done, that's the way it's always been done, and that's the way it will continue to be done until Chief decides otherwise. Now stroke your own keys and come up with your own flognostications.


He's an interesting one Lang. People here rarely see any middle ground with him, including me....it's very much either black or white. Whatever he produced during his junior days is getting onto 5 years ago now, so I'm not sure how relevant it is anymore. For a 4th round pick in a poor draft, SOS is hardly going to poop the bed if it doesn't work out.........although we could've got Roughsedge with that pick. (I know, I know. I've really gotta let that one go....)

One thing I've come to accept about making 42 list changes in 25 months is that many of those were necessary to bring about a change in culture. Anywhere up to half of those players won't make it as regular AFL players.....they're just "stocking fillers" until we're able to procure even more talent. I still think we're 8-10 players away from having a list with enough depth capable of making finals. One needs to allow that up to 20% of our playing list may be unavailable at any given time due to injury, form or suspension.


Slack ferrisb. Missed the connection between S-bends & flushes. Then again, I did miss the fact Brodie Smith had just been re-signed. Cheeky bastards must have announced it while I was taking a nanna nap.


They're slowly but surely getting there TW. Big fan of what they've done with the upgrading of the coaching contingent and list management team. Always now looking at how they can improve all aspects of the football dept. Thought of you the other night when I put on Seger's Nightmoves followed by Petty's Don't come around here no more when breaking in the new power amp.


At least. Reckon he was closer to Kennedy's height when I saw him.

Yep. Fair call. My random flognostication (or flognostification) is Lang will make it and we will love him much like we do Ed Curnow.

 

[Toddski]

Only managed to view the one training session down at South Melbourne this off-season. Just some random flognostications.

Keep tabs on the following:

• Charlie Curnow - Forget the talk about "looks a beast" (which he does) and "looks ripped" (which he also does), the thing that really impressed me was that he really looks exceptionally strong and developed through the core now. Expect a more powerful player in terms of being able to shake off a would-be tackler like Robert Harvey used to do. Once he gets a real handle on what he's capable of, Charlie will start putting some really exciting quarters together during the 2nd half of the season.
• Jacob Weitering - Another who's matured through the core over summer and walks with renewed purpose. Looking forward to seeing him quietly taking over games with his intercept marking and directing traffic out of the back half.
• Harrison Macreadie - Even though he'll need another preseason or two to fully develop into his physical potential, his body shape has changed quite noticeably over the summer and now resembles that of an AFL footballer. Has good acceleration, excellent speed, strong endurance, a nice side step and reads the flight of the ball very well. I expect him to force his way into our best 22 during the first half of the season. Given that Rowe & ASOS aren't longterm solutions and that Marchbank & Plowman have proven to be somewhat injury-prone, talk of trading Macreadie is pure nonsense.

Walking the tightrope:

• Darcy Lang - I'm nowhere near as bullish about Lang's prospects as many on this board. Despite being serviced by a very dominant contested midfield which included the likes of Selwood, Dangerfield, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie, etc, Lang only managed to find himself with the ball in his possession 15 times per game on average. That's one less time than the contact-shy Boekhorst managed to get on the end of the chain and we were missing Cripps & Ed from the equation just to put it in some perspective. Credit where credit's due, one area that Lang really developed during 2017 was the defensive side of his game. While some may point to a lack of opportunity at the Cats, one needs to remember that the likes of Bews, Murdoch, McCarthy & Parsons were often preferred options and none of those players are exactly known for "lighting it up". There's a reason why SOS refused to part with more than a 4th Round pick in a shitty draft for Lang and until he begins to produce on a regular basis I see him as another "stocking filler" in the mould of Sumner, Lamb, Phillips, Smedts, Shaw, Gorringe, Buckley, Boekhorst, Jaksch, etc. Here's hoping he proves me wrong.
• Harry McKay - Really needs to find a way to get his body right. All the potential in the world means diddly squat if you can't get on the park. While McKay's in absolutely no danger of being delisted any time soon, SOS isn't one to sit on his hands and young Harry may find himself having to contend with more than just Ben Silvagni looking to leapfrog him. Harry performing well may just prove to be the difference between SOS using our first pick on a KPF such as Lukosius, Williams or one of the King Bros or spending it on a mid such as Bytel, Walsh or Rankine.
• Andrew Phillips - When up and running big Sauce is a very good tap ruckman, but therein lies the problem.....how to get him up & running??? Injury & Phillips seem to go hand-in-hand, and even when fit Phillips needs plenty of work under his belt before he hits his stride. Was the drafting of De Koning the first sign that SOS has shifted his gaze elsewhere???

Much ado 'bout nuthin':

• Lachie Plowman - Bemused how many people here can't fit young Lachie into their best 22, generally because of height. Interesting fact was that last season he was generally matched up against small forwards where he excelled and IMO was our second best defender behind Docherty. Given that 2017 was easily Plowman's best season and his kicking is rated as elite, I can't see me pushing him out of my best 22 any time soon.
• Matty Wright - Another who's under-appreciated and under-valued, most probably because we picked him up as a delisted free agent. As a small forward who can also play as a genuine midfielder no one else on our list approaches his output inside F50. Not Murphy, not Garlett, not Pickett, not Lang, not SPS, not Fisher, not Cuningham.....no one. "If only Levi could kick straight"....."Jack's figures would look so much better if he kicked 25.11 instead of 19.17" I hear everyone say. In a world where accuracy in front of goal is spiralling down the S-bend Wright flushes it 78% of the time and is an elite kick at goal. My biggest complaint about Matty Wright is that we don't use him enough inside 50. When and if SPS, Fisher, Garlett, Pickett, Cuningham and/or Lang demonstrate they can perform that role better than Wright then they can have his spot, but not before. At this stage he's light years ahead of our other small forward/mids.
• Jack Silvagni - Given JSOS wasn't expected to play any senior footy for 2 years after we drafted him, fair to say 28 games later that he's ahead of the curve most of us would've set for him after he was drafted. In many ways his future could be tied to the fortunes of Harry McKay. Should SOS choose to cover his bases due to a lack of performance from McKay, drafting players such as Lukocius or Williams along with the BOSS could prove fatal for Jack's future at the Blues.

New Blood:

• Paddy Dow - Barring injury will definitely play Round 1. Is it just me or does Dow look taller than his allotted 184cm??? Certainly looks taller than O'Brien who is listed at the same height. Reads the ball off hands or feet quicker than most so expect a lot of intercept possessions from him. Needs to tidy up his kicking though.
• Lochie O'Brien - Will need to spend some time at VFL level to improve the contested side of his game before being unleashed at AFL level. No one expects him to become a Crippsesque inside beast, but you'd like to think he'd have a good chance of ending up with the ball in a one-on-one contest. Already has the disposal skills, speed and endurance to cope at AFL level. Would expect to see him debut at some point this season.
• Tom De Koning - Highly contentious taking this kid with Pick 30 for mine based upon what I saw of him at the U18 Champs. Was there a case for taking a developing ruckman??? Sure.....but a project player with Pick 30??? Not sure he has the natural aggression to play the role and he certainly doesn't have the endurance required. On the positive side, he does have good hands, leads up hard and fast at the ball carrier when playing up forward and is a nice kick. Would much rather SOS had taken another contested (balanced or inside) mid here. Having said that, here's to hoping De Koning makes every post a winner.

Wild Cards:

• Jarrod Pickett - According to the scribes Pickett's had a strong preseason and elevated his fitness levels considerably. Always looks a much better player when he presents up at the ball carrier rather than forever ducking out the back looking for the lazy gimme over the top. Would much prefer seeing him play percentage football by playing in front where he remains in the contest should the ball be spoiled or deflected from its intended path. Important year for Pickett.
• Jarrod Garlett - Did you know that 50% of Garlett's possessions in his 2nd year at the Suns were contested??? Has very strong hands in the stoppage does Mr Garlett and is quite adept at ripping the ball out of an opponent's grasp. Wouldn't mind seeing him handed over to Fraser, Amos & Stanton to be developed at VFL level as a balanced mid. While Garlett would seem to have all the attributes to perform this role my main queries concern whether he has the endurance and the ability to find enough of the ball to warrant using him in that position. Had a very ordinary year at WAFL level last year so has the job in front of him with the step up in class. As for the ******* hair-do??? FMD.

Treading Water:

• Don't panic if SPS, Fisher, Macreadie &/or Williamson don't seem to make much headway this season. Think most second year players find the preseason a genuine slog while their bodies still try to cope with the increased workload. Just ask Weitering, SOSOS & Cunners.
• People will need to temper their expectations of Matthew Kennedy after having a heavily disrupted preseason. May be well into the 2nd half of the season before he begins to really display his wares.

List Needs:

• 2 X KPF - Not yet sold on Harry, SOSOS is a work in progress and Kerr is a project player.
• 4 X Contested Mids - 2 Inside Mids & 2 Balanced Mids. Still think our midfield is easily the weakest part of our team and those currently on our list really suck when it comes to running both ways and applying defensive pressure. You can have 2 Rances, 3 Levers and 4 Dochertys in the back half, but unless the midfield are prepared to do their share the defence will always struggle.
• 2 X Quality Ruckmen - Notice the use of the word "quality" as opposed to "project" Ruckmen.
• I know Kinghtmare copped a caning for giving SOS a D+ for his draft efforts this year, but I don't think he was all that far off the mark. Between his trading & drafting I could only give him a "C". Last season we finished 17th for clearances, 17th for inside 50s and last for goals scored. For me this emphasised our need for contested mids (both balanced & inside), yet out of the 12 players SOS bought into the club he could only snare 2.

Trade Targets:

• Brodie Smith (Crows RFA) - There aren't many running defenders you'd put in the same "elite class" (and I don't throw that phrase around lightly) as Docherty, but Smith is certainly one of them. Given that the Crows are up to Pussy's Bow with their TPP and Smith will be coming off a knee reco means he may not get the contract he's hoping for. Potentially frees up Williamson or Byrne to play up on a wing or in the middle. Nice size with excellent speed, endurance and exceptional disposal by foot who can play tall or small. Would be surprised if something like $1.75m-$2m over 4 years wouldn't get the job done.
• Mitch Wallis (Doggies RFA) - One who genuinely flies under the radar of supporters from opposition clubs. I find myself tossing up whether to rank him as an "A" or "B" grade inside mid, but around 75% of his disposals result in retained possession. So not only does he find the ball in the stoppage, but 3 times out of 4 he does something positive with it. There's nothing overly flash about Wallis, he just runs all day and gets the job done without fuss or fanfare. The Wallis blood runs deep down at the Western Oval and he's considered a heart & soul player there so I'm not sure how easy it would be to get him to move. Think you'd need to offer at least $500-$550k for 4 years to make it happen. I suspect these are the deals we acquired Agresta to assist with.

Draft Targets:

Way too early for this, but I'll take a stab based upon what I think we still need.

• 1st Rounder - Best Mid available. Adding Rankine/Walsh & Wallis to SPS, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Cripps & Kennedy would really make for a pretty strong midfield.....well at least on paper anyway.
• 2nd Rounder (1) Best Available Ruck. Can't see Williams being available this low down, but Riley Bowman may well be. Probably the best performed underage ruck from last years TAC comp.
• 2nd Rounder (2) Will probably be forced to take the BOSS as a Father/Son here.

Still think we'll find it pretty tough this year, but expect the likes of Weitering, Charlie, Cuningham and, to a lesser extent, SOSOS to get hold of some games in the second half of the season. Next year will be the time we begin to Serge back up the ladder. Would much prefer to see how Garlett, Macreadie, Kerridge, Dow, O'Brien & Lang perform in the JLT series before naming a Round 1 potential 22.

Agree about Macreadie and Plow.

Completely disagree with your assessment of SOS' drafting last year. Garlett will surprise you, did you know he ran a 15 beep in his draft year? SOS drafted Rory Lobb at 27, wouldn't be surprised if TDK becomes a similar player.

 

[TerryWallet]

They're slowly but surely getting there TW. Big fan of what they've done with the upgrading of the coaching contingent and list management team. Always now looking at how they can improve all aspects of the football dept. Thought of you the other night when I put on Seger's Nightmoves followed by Petty's Don't come around here no more when breaking in the new power amp.

Very prescient post. Watching/listening to Petty & the HB's 2006 Gainesville concert as you typed. It's a ball tearer.

And yeah, as much as i'm giving myself a little sickly fanboy feeling about how super positive i am about our post 2015 efforts lol, i really do feel we've hardly put a foot wrong with our coaching/development coaching appointments, current List management and Recruiting.

It will be a massive effort if we make it up the ladder for a consistent run at the Top 8 coming from the horrendous base we had in Sep 2015. But i do feel we are gonna pull it off. Quality coaching, quantity of quality young players, and a handful of potential young stars.

There is so much to watch and so much to evaluate in every Carlton match this year. It will be very interesting watching who pops up and who pops out.

 

[Michael Jezz]

A ke

The coach says he can ruck mate selected to do the relief rucking all season so take it up with bolts not me . 34-18 on the season is saying you arent seeing it . All you see is a few missed easy shots . And the young forwards when they merit games through fitness and form will get a game irrespective of whether Casboult is there or not . You need to get over the grudge you have for Casboult....

A key position forward who is 28 and avgs 1 goal per game and has 1 30 goal season....let alone all the his other deficencies. Casboult is not the future

 

[Blueballs38]

I

I love Malthouse.

We are where we are (properly structured organisation) because of him.

He was ahead of his time.

In Malthouse we trust