Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[footyfan1978]

Didn't we on-trade Richmond's second round pick for Docherty?

Be happy if so. I thought it was Everitt we got for his pick. My memory hazy about this.

 

[footyfan1978]

Carlton got 32 gave Shaun Hampson
Richmond got Shaun Hampson gave 32

Carlton got 39 + Andrejs Everitt gave 32
Sydney got 32 gave 39 + Andrejs Everitt

Pick 39 became Cam Giles.

So yeah, 0-0 draw...

 

[juzza316]

We basically own 9% of Richmond's 2017 flag (2 players out of 22) though by giving them Grigg and Lambert for peanuts

 

[Arr0w]

I think we are on the same page?

Assuming Shiel wants to leave, his choice of clubs
2019: Carlton
2020: Carlton + 9 others

The reason we have to try in 2019 is because we've got the clear run. Outside of a miracle 2019 season where we win 9-10 games we aren't in the top 3 clubs of choice for him in 2020

Bangs head on keyboard

Okay last time.

Whether he wants out this year or next, wanting to return to Melbourne, ALL 10 clubs would show an interest this year or next.

In actual fact, it would be easier next year for us, rather than this year. If he wanted to leave this year and SOS (we have heard he is a "MONSTER" during trade week), would play hard ball, forcing a possible mediation. During that mediation, GWS could offer evidence that 6 other Melbourne based clubs have offered a much better deal, potentially having to increase our offer

End of next year, Shiel (wants to play for Carlton) is made a reasonable offer, by SOS. Shiel nominates us. The only right of reply is from one club, GWS (who can not offer anywhere close to the deal we have on the table)

Result - Shiel to Carlton - Cost ZERO draft picks

 

[footyfan1978]

We basically own 9% of Richmond's 2017 flag (2 players out of 22) though by giving them Grigg and Lambert for peanuts

Lambert was never on our list. He played for our VFL team like Jesse Palmer and Sam Fisher do this year but are not our players.
Grigg was ours but not really a player I miss despite making a good career for himself at Tigers.

 

[DangerousD]

Yeah I would want us to get him and still have a first round pick. Going to be tough to achieve that though

Not necessarily, I have a dream scenario where:

Recruit Sloane as a FA

Carlton trade 1 to the Crows for 7 and 8 (assume Sloane compo)

Carlton trade 8 and 2019 1st for Shiel with a GWS 2019 2nd coming back

Trade the dogs 2nd and the Crows 2nd for Lloyd and the Swans 2nd

Bring in Sloane, Lloyd and Shiel and still go to the draft with a top 10 pick and a 2nd rounder

 

[jd2010]

Bangs head on keyboard

Okay last time.

Whether he wants out this year or next, wanting to return to Melbourne, ALL 10 clubs would show an interest this year or next.

In actual fact, it would be easier next year for us, rather than this year. If he wanted to leave this year and SOS (we have heard he is a "MONSTER" during trade week), would play hard ball, forcing a possible mediation. During that mediation, GWS could offer evidence that 6 other Melbourne based clubs have offered a much better deal, potentially having to increase our offer

End of next year, Shiel (wants to play for Carlton) is made a reasonable offer, by SOS. Shiel nominates us. The only right of reply is from one club, GWS (who can not offer anywhere close to the deal we have on the table)

Result - Shiel to Carlton - Cost ZERO draft picks

The only way he gets back this year is via trade. That puts us well and truly ahead of all the other clubs because we have the best draft hand. I thought that was a given. SOS isn't as bad as people make out, we've got good but fair deals all the way through.

Even if they shopped him around who else can offer them anything close to what we can in a trade whilst still offering him the $$$ he wants.

 

[jd2010]

Not necessarily, I have a dream scenario where:

Recruit Sloane as a FA

Carlton trade 1 to the Crows for 7 and 8 (assume Sloane compo)

Carlton trade 8 and 2019 1st for Shiel with a GWS 2019 2nd coming back

Trade the dogs 2nd and the Crows 2nd for Lloyd and the Swans 2nd

Bring in Sloane, Lloyd and Shiel and still go to the draft with a top 10 pick and a 2nd rounder

That's being very punchy assuming Sloane picks us over Hawthorn. Take that out and it's a still an okay haul though

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Hmmmm have Freo ever won a flag? How long have they been in the comp now? Think it is 24 years ……

TBF, its about the same since we last won one.

 

[DangerousD]

Bangs head on keyboard

Okay last time.

Whether he wants out this year or next, wanting to return to Melbourne, ALL 10 clubs would show an interest this year or next.

In actual fact, it would be easier next year for us, rather than this year. If he wanted to leave this year and SOS (we have heard he is a "MONSTER" during trade week), would play hard ball, forcing a possible mediation. During that mediation, GWS could offer evidence that 6 other Melbourne based clubs have offered a much better deal, potentially having to increase our offer

End of next year, Shiel (wants to play for Carlton) is made a reasonable offer, by SOS. Shiel nominates us. The only right of reply is from one club, GWS (who can not offer anywhere close to the deal we have on the table)

Result - Shiel to Carlton - Cost ZERO draft picks

It could also go down like this.

Shiel to manager ‘I desperately want to get back to Melbourne, I’m done up here, I’d love to play for the Blues’
Manager to SOS “Dylan is desperate to get to Carlton this trade period”
SOS to manger “Thanks but we aren’t nterested in Dylan this year because we have to pay so we will wait”
Manager to Shiel “Carlton aren’t interested this year, told me, you have to wait until next year, they obviously don’t think you’re worth it. But I’ve got good offers from 4 other Vic clubs”

This, we will just get him next year talk really annoys me, if Dylan decides he wants out and GWS are willing to trade then you don’t burn your bridges by telling him/them nah we will wait until next year so we can screw you over.

It’s possible SOS might be in to another FA next year.

 

[BluesRule]

I dont have the information available to speculate on what the best outcome for Carlton's needs will be or can be or can be manufactured. This is why I don't participate in conjecture/discussion etc in draft threads and stuff like that.

I am waiting for news about Cripps signing an extended contract. This is an absolutely vital and telling strategic input into the whole rebuild scenario.

In this context - I am sharing my view that Carlton's biggest issue is in fact getting support around Cripps and improving midfield capability as #1 priority

In this context - it makes perfect sense to me what Simpson said on the Couch regarding use of picks and cash.

Agree Cripps needs to re-sign and get support. And Shiel in 2019 would be a big help. But does he make us a finalist? Having both Kennedy and Murphy around in 2019 would help, plus another year into SPS, Dow, Fisher and LOB.

I could see us swap SPS for Cerra, as we have a lot of small mids but really need a bigger body, where as Freo could really do with the run from SPS. Both are young and the potential peak for both looks very high. No drama if we keep SPS though as he is awesome to watch with ball in hand.

Giving #1-2 for Shiel sounds like a waste to me. Love Shiel but would expect SOS to wrangle a better deal with Shiel becoming a free agent next year. GWS can keep him another year and get a first round pick next year (say #15-18) if Compo still exists, or could trade him for our 2019 first (#1-8) now. We get him a year earlier and they get a better pick + steak knifes.

But GWS are losing too many players, so trade Shiel this year is unlikely IMO.

 

[DangerousD]

That's being very punchy assuming Sloane picks us over Hawthorn. Take that out and it's a still an okay haul though

I was just day dreaming, wondering if by signing one guy like Sloane other players immediately see us as being a lot more competition I’ve next season.

 

[Stamos]

I think we are on the same page?

Assuming Shiel wants to leave, his choice of clubs
2019: Carlton
2020: Carlton + 9 others

The reason we have to try in 2019 is because we've got the clear run. Outside of a miracle 2019 season where we win 9-10 games we aren't in the top 3 clubs of choice for him in 2020

The choice of clubs doesn't change, any other club would be able to manufacture a deal if they wanted him enough and he chose them.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The only way he gets back this year is via trade. That puts us well and truly ahead of all the other clubs because we have the best draft hand. I thought that was a given. SOS isn't as bad as people make out, we've got good but fair deals all the way through.

Even if they shopped him around who else can offer them anything close to what we can in a trade whilst still offering him the $$$ he wants.

The problem with Shiel is he was incapable of carrying that midfield when they were struggling. He would be their third midfielder behind Coniglio and Kelly. If we miss out on him it not a big deal. He like Gaff would only come to us for $$$ so we would be much better off overpaying Gaff and bringing in Lukosius or Walsh ect than chasing him this year and giving up a heap in terms of draft picks

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

What picks do they hold? And what players of theirs could they package up to get a deal done?

I'm not sold on McGovern being a good fit for us and he is the only obvious one I can think of

I am actually. Think he would be a good third tall forward option for us.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Lets say they get pick 9 for Sloane as compo.

8, 9 & 19 for pick 1?
8 & 9 and 1 of our 2nds for Shiel?
So turning pick 1 & a second into Shiel & pick 19

Don't think pick 1 is worth that much, nor frankly is Shiel worth that either IMO.

 

[bludrew79]

Doubt any player will want the club they decide to go to throw away 2 first rounders...
Surely they know that those potential players would assist the team they decide to go to?
Even if it means an extra 12 months on current list?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Still don't get it. Why would we give up valuable picks this year and or next, for a player like Shiel, when he is a FREE hit next year

Agreed, Im not even sold on Shiel being the big free agency target at the end of 2019 anyway. I wouldn't be the slightest bit bothered if we didn't chase him.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Blue supporters need to wake up and stop taking Cripps for granted - all very well to swoon over the future potential of SPS/Fisher and Dow - none of whom can take on the bigger players who rotate through on ball to Cripps and just smash him over and over again. Cripps hasn't signed up for a bunged up body by his mid 20's in order to provide an armchair ride for developing 'potential' of kids. He has less support than Judd had and Judd had none. thank goodness Kennedy is back on field and playing - the only other player in teh side on Sunday with any hint of genuine menace.

AFL football STARTS with midfield capability and Carlton isnt even on the starting blocks - destroys any defensive structure as well as attacking structure - just a joke - no one is fooled except look long term rose coloured glass optimists. Long term is built by incremental improvement short terms.

2 genuine midfield presences required to keep rebuild on track - no BS.

Then take either a FA or trade off our 2nds. No way would i send a top 3 pick for Shiel when be is just coin the following year.

I dont believe SOS will give up an early pick this year.

Send Cripps forward more if we are that concerned about his body this year. I want him to play for as many years as possible too. But Shiel is not the answer 1 year out from free agency.

 

[Arr0w]

It could also go down like this.

Shiel to manager ‘I desperately want to get back to Melbourne, I’m done up here, I’d love to play for the Blues’
Manager to SOS “Dylan is desperate to get to Carlton this trade period”
SOS to manger “Thanks but we aren’t nterested in Dylan this year because we have to pay so we will wait”
Manager to Shiel “Carlton aren’t interested this year, told me, you have to wait until next year, they obviously don’t think you’re worth it. But I’ve got good offers from 4 other Vic clubs”

This, we will just get him next year talk really annoys me, if Dylan decides he wants out and GWS are willing to trade then you don’t burn your bridges by telling him/them nah we will wait until next year so we can screw you over.

It’s possible SOS might be in to another FA next year.

I am not saying we would not do the deal, of course you would make it happen, that it is not what I was responding too

 

[CJMB]

The only way he gets back this year is via trade. That puts us well and truly ahead of all the other clubs because we have the best draft hand. I thought that was a given. SOS isn't as bad as people make out, we've got good but fair deals all the way through.

Even if they shopped him around who else can offer them anything close to what we can in a trade whilst still offering him the $$$ he wants.

But do we have to get him this year?
I'd rather use our first this year, be it drafting Lukosius/Walsh, turning it into multiple 1sts to draft mids or perhaps trading it to a club for a slight downgrade and a player we genuinely rate.

We can try for Shiel next year. If he chooses someone else, that's fine, we'll go after other FAs and OOC players, probably including Kelly & Coniglio among others. When we start making a run up the ladder we'll be much more appealing to players wanting to move clubs. No need to rush this thing for 1 player.

It could also go down like this.

Shiel to manager ‘I desperately want to get back to Melbourne, I’m done up here, I’d love to play for the Blues’
Manager to SOS “Dylan is desperate to get to Carlton this trade period”
SOS to manger “Thanks but we aren’t nterested in Dylan this year because we have to pay so we will wait”
Manager to Shiel “Carlton aren’t interested this year, told me, you have to wait until next year, they obviously don’t think you’re worth it. But I’ve got good offers from 4 other Vic clubs”

This, we will just get him next year talk really annoys me, if Dylan decides he wants out and GWS are willing to trade then you don’t burn your bridges by telling him/them nah we will wait until next year so we can screw you over.

It’s possible SOS might be in to another FA next year.

That's on the proviso that Shiel desperately wants to move this year and can't wait. Would he prefer to come to us next year without much more improvement to our list or wait 12 months and join us in a better situation? Spend 1 more in Sydney, win more games than you lose, come join us when we're ready to launch.

Agree Cripps needs to re-sign and get support. And Shiel in 2019 would be a big help. But does he make us a finalist? Having both Kennedy and Murphy around in 2019 would help, plus another year into SPS, Dow, Fisher and LOB.

I could see us swap SPS for Cerra, as we have a lot of small mids but really need a bigger body, where as Freo could really do with the run from SPS. Both are young and the potential peak for both looks very high. No drama if we keep SPS though as he is awesome to watch with ball in hand.

Giving #1-2 for Shiel sounds like a waste to me. Love Shiel but would expect SOS to wrangle a better deal with Shiel becoming a free agent next year. GWS can keep him another year and get a first round pick next year (say #15-18) if Compo still exists, or could trade him for our 2019 first (#1-8) now. We get him a year earlier and they get a better pick + steak knifes.

But GWS are losing too many players, so trade Shiel this year is unlikely IMO.

We need all types of midfielders, not just the big ones. I'm strongly against trading SPS. Why would we go hard for Cerra now when we could wait until after next season when he's OOC? That's also assuming he doesn't re-sign... perhaps he's just waiting to get a rising star nomination so he can use that in his contract talks and get a bit more coin?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

It could also go down like this.

Shiel to manager ‘I desperately want to get back to Melbourne, I’m done up here, I’d love to play for the Blues’
Manager to SOS “Dylan is desperate to get to Carlton this trade period”
SOS to manger “Thanks but we aren’t nterested in Dylan this year because we have to pay so we will wait”
Manager to Shiel “Carlton aren’t interested this year, told me, you have to wait until next year, they obviously don’t think you’re worth it. But I’ve got good offers from 4 other Vic clubs”

This, we will just get him next year talk really annoys me, if Dylan decides he wants out and GWS are willing to trade then you don’t burn your bridges by telling him/them nah we will wait until next year so we can screw you over.

It’s possible SOS might be in to another FA next year.

Just don't believe SOS is for quick fixes. He has a potential champ sitting in the top 3 of this years draft. Dylan may not be our man anyways.

 

[Arr0w]

The only way he gets back this year is via trade. That puts us well and truly ahead of all the other clubs because we have the best draft hand. I thought that was a given. SOS isn't as bad as people make out, we've got good but fair deals all the way through.

Even if they shopped him around who else can offer them anything close to what we can in a trade whilst still offering him the $$$ he wants.

ALL Melbourne clubs

Firstly, some can offer finals from next year, while the club could offer picks and players

Secondly, any side not contending for finals could offer as much as us in terms of value.

Do not get caught up that we have more money to spend than any other club, we are certainly well placed,, but other clubs such as North could offer as much if not more

Reasons Shiel could want to come home

Home (10 clubs)
Immediate success (Not us at present
Money ( 3 or 4 clubs )
Carlton (Dream reason)

 

[Ald Gardiner]

That's being very punchy assuming Sloane picks us over Hawthorn. Take that out and it's a still an okay haul though

We’ll have plenty back for Hawks in Rd 20, let’s hope we beat them to get FA’s like him to us

 

[jd2010]

We can try for Shiel next year. If he chooses someone else, that's fine, we'll go after other FAs and OOC players, probably including Kelly & Coniglio among others. When we start making a run up the ladder we'll be much more appealing to players wanting to move clubs. No need to rush this thing for 1 player.

The way we move up the ladder is by getting him though. Getting Shiel this year makes Kelly/Coniglio more realistic next year. Right now they're all going elsewhere because there is no sell for a 6-16 side unfortunately. With Shiel and better injury luck we could get an extra win or two and have more of a sell