Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[BrisbaneCFC]

Best way to avoid that is to tell the AFL we're open to trading them the number 1 pick anyway. The motivation in giving them the PP would be to let them land Lukosius as a marquee replacement for Lynch - by opening up that possibility ourselves it gives the AFL a convenient out.

Lynch goes, they get Pick 4 compo.

1 + 23 for 4, 16 + Brodie (values Brodie @ 26).

4 for Shiel.

Gold Coast get Pick 1 (Lukosius), Pick 3 (Walsh/Smith), Pick 23 to replace Lynch, Brodie and Pick 16.
GWS get better value for Shiel than they're likely to see next year, and can get a Smith/Rankine/King at Pick 4 depending on their preference.
Carlton turn Picks 1 and 23 into Shiel, Brodie and Pick 16 (Taylor, Rozee etc). Retain Pick 27 as well.

Still don't think Id want to spend pick 4 on Shiel. I think Id go to Adelaide with it and try to nab Mitch McGovern who wants out reportedly, and pick 8.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Still don't think Id want to spend pick 4 on Shiel. I think Id go to Adelaide with it and try to nab Mitch McGovern who wants out reportedly, and pick 8.

You reckon Adelaide (Adelaide!) trade a contracted McGovern for the equivalent of Pick 37? To Carlton?

Rankine's doing the right thing by them and taking this year easy. They'll get him at 8, and if they get band 1 compo for Sloane, they'll add Rozee to the mix at 9.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Not sure why you think GCS would say no to picks 1 and 3.

Because the difference between King and Lukosius isn't worth Brodie and a possible chance of a Rozee/Bytel ect.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

You reckon Adelaide (Adelaide!) trade a contracted McGovern for the equivalent of Pick 37? To Carlton?

Rankine's doing the right thing by them and taking this year easy. They'll get him at 8, and if they get band 1 compo for Sloane, they'll add Rozee to the mix at 9.

Alright pick 13 then instead of 8.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Because the difference between King and Lukosius isn't worth Brodie and a possible chance of a Rozee/Bytel ect.

I reckon GCS jump all over picks 1 and 3 without even blinking.

 

[footyfan1978]

If you compare Joshua Kennedy to Harry at the same age the result is very very close (Harry kicks more goals, but Kennedy got more ball). We must keep Harry unless serious overs are paid.

If we had of kept Kennedy and played hard ball with West Coast all those years ago we probably would have gone close to a flag. Judd had nominated us yet we still overpaid IMO (much as I loved having Judd). Pity SOS was not the list manager back then

Harry has got more of ball relative to same time of career.

Games, Kicks, HB, DI, Mrks, MI50's, CM's, GL, BH, HO, TK, I50's, G Assists, 1%, %P, Cla, FF, FA
Kennedy 9, 36, 16, 52, 32, 8, 5, 5, 4, 1, 11, 15, 1, 3, 56%, 17, 7, 8
McKay 8, 51, 13, 64, 31, 11, 9, 15, 5, 10, 15, 20, 3, 6, 75%, 12, 10, 8

From one less game he has 3 times as many goals as Kennedy and 3 times as many goal assists.
The only stat Kennedy had more was handballs and clangers.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Alright pick 13 then instead of 8.

Closer to the mark - if they get the Sloane compo (leaving them with 8, 9 and 13) they may be prepared to part with 13.

Is McGovern important enough to us to do that trade?

If we get our system (read: midfield + forward entries) right does McGovern do that much better than Silvagni, TDK or Kerr? Can't help but think he's one of those players that was flattered by the team around him (looked great in Adelaide's super 2017 forward line, but hasn't handled the drop in their team form well at all).

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Closer to the mark - if they get the Sloane compo (leaving them with 8, 9 and 13) they may be prepared to part with 13.

Is McGovern important enough to us to do that trade?

If we get our system (read: midfield + forward entries) right does McGovern do that much better than Silvagni, TDK or Kerr? Can't help but think he's one of those players that was flattered by the team around him (looked great in Adelaide's super 2017 forward line, but hasn't handled the drop in their team form well at all).

IMO, yes. Quality third tall added to our team. Walks into best 22 ahead of Jack and Kerr. I can see 2019 starting Cas, Charlie and Gov as the 3 talls, with Harry replacing Cas from 2020. As much as people think Levi is pants, I expect that Bolts will continue to use him as he has done until his contract runs out or until such time that Harry is genuinely the better option on form. This is yet to be the case.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I reckon GCS jump all over picks 1 and 3 without even blinking.

I see them going with 3,4,16 and Brodie (pick7 two years ago)

 

[HarryFlashman]

This'll get shouted down BUT consider trading Kreuzer for mine. Fire at will (but ffs take the emotion out of it).

Emotion out of it- he’s worth ****all on the open market, injury history & age, worth peanuts.

 

[Bluebag13]

If you compare Joshua Kennedy to Harry at the same age the result is very very close (Harry kicks more goals, but Kennedy got more ball). We must keep Harry unless serious overs are paid.

If we had of kept Kennedy and played hard ball with West Coast all those years ago we probably would have gone close to a flag. Judd had nominated us yet we still overpaid IMO (much as I loved having Judd). Pity SOS was not the list manager back then

Judd nominated us in part because we could give west coast what they were after.


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[BrisbaneCFC]

Emotion out of it- he’s worth ****all on the open market, injury history & age, worth peanuts.

Doesn't mean he cant or shouldn't be moved on.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Doesn't mean he cant or shouldn't be moved on.

Yeah, it does...
can’t is a moot point- anyone can be
Shouldn’t is really simple: why trade something worth very little to someone else, when it’s of high value to yourself.
Kreuz may be worth little on the market, but he’s indispensable to us when fit. What your saying is to basically delist him...good luck with that

 

[BIGGUS 64]

Judd nominated us in part because we could give west coast what they were after.


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Just a pity we didn't have the foresight to offer them Fev. Straight swap, Judd for Fev.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Yeah, it does...
can’t is a moot point- anyone can be
Shouldn’t is really simple: why trade something worth very little to someone else, when it’s of high value to yourself.
Kreuz may be worth little on the market, but he’s indispensable to us when fit. What your saying is to basically delist him...good luck with that

Thanks for that. End of discussion.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Yeah, it does...
can’t is a moot point- anyone can be
Shouldn’t is really simple: why trade something worth very little to someone else, when it’s of high value to yourself.
Kreuz may be worth little on the market, but he’s indispensable to us when fit. What your saying is to basically delist him...good luck with that

Really don't think he is indespensible.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Really don't think he is indespensible.

When fit & firing he’s dead set ****ing inspirational.

Do u know what indispensable means? Absolutely Necessary - which is exactly what he is when fit

 

[PIGZARSE]

Sprouting? Grow up.
Im putting out potential facts. I never said a younger player couldnt get injured! Fact is... B&S stated a player declines at approx 10 years in the system. So because shiel has already done 7 years, im pointing out, 1 injury and its getting close to the end. A new player not so much.

Pull your head in!

Very willing to take the 'risk' on Shiel and happy to have our 1st pick on the table if it facilitates the move this year. When the rebuild goes to plan and we're fighting for a spot in the 8 in 2020, and upwards from 2021 and beyond, Shiel (among many others, barring career threatening injuries) will be in their prime for a tilt at the flag for many years. Looking forward to the weekly sermon of Da da da da da!! Bring it on. Go Blues!

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

When fit & firing he’s dead set ******* inspirational.

Do u know what indispensable means? Absolutely Necessary - which is exactly what he is when fit

I do know what it means and I simply don't agree.

 

[Navara79]

Cripps positive on contract talks

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/cripps-positive-on-contract-talks-20180627-p4zo12.html

Patrick Cripps was “stoked” with the news Charlie Curnow had signed a long-term deal with Carlton, while the brilliant midfielder has confirmed that he, too, is moving towards a contract extension.

Cripps, 23, and Curnow, 21, are among the game’s brightest young stars, with the pair again showcasing their talent in last Sunday’s loss to Collingwood at the MCG.

 

[Funk]

When fit & firing he’s dead set ******* inspirational.

Do u know what indispensable means? Absolutely Necessary - which is exactly what he is when fit

Not often enough

 

[DangerousD]

Does that mean GWS are stuck having to honor the new contract (which I'm guessing would be signed prior to trade week) and leave them in a situation where they are forced to trade other players to get under the TPP limit

In the unlikely event that happened, Shiel can nominate for the PSD where he sets his wage and contract price and we hope no one else picks him up
or
He would stay and GWS would have to trade, delist or give away players to fit him in.
Or
The AFL tap us on the shoulder and give us a warning if we screw their baby they will screw us.

 

[DangerousD]

As a hypothetical, what if we offered ~$900k pa and GWS decide to match, but we just say we weren't willing to trade for him, only pick up as a 'free hit' through FA.

Does that mean GWS are stuck having to honor the new contract (which I'm guessing would be signed prior to trade week) and leave them in a situation where they are forced to trade other players to get under the TPP limit?

Hard to see anyone being particularly interested in taking the veterans on the list (Shaw, Griffen, Deledio) so they'd have to offload a couple of younger talented players they probably had long term plans for. Can't just delist/retire anyone because you have to pay them out and it counts in the TPP. GWS find themselves having to sell someone (or multiple younger players) to find the money. Who gets let go? Kelly? Whitfield? Taranto & or Hopper?...




Really? You're that fickle over one position in the order?

Depends on what we plan to use it for, by getting moved down one spot we essentially lose all our bargaining power with the two SA clubs if they are hell bent on Luko

 

[DangerousD]

This'll get shouted down BUT consider trading Kreuzer for mine. Fire at will (but ffs take the emotion out of it).

Only if we bring in Lycett as a FA

 

[DangerousD]

Just a pity we didn't have the foresight to offer them Fev. Straight swap, Judd for Fev.

The reason at the time why pick 1 was off the table, because Kruz was billed as a once in a generation player, seen to be so dominant in the ruck and a great forward, so good that you wouldn't even trade the pick for Judd. So good that he was deemed so much better than a KPF we drafted 2 seasons prior.