Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[therubbernub]

Macreadie possibily to become our Tomlinson?

excuse my ignorance. What is Tomlinsons role now?

 

[therubbernub]

Kreuzer as #1 when fit but we've got Lobbe who I'm pretty happy with and should give us a really competent backup to MK for the next couple of seasons while TDK develops. Also like that Lobbe seems to have taken TDK under his wing and is mentoring him.

I wouldnt write off Phillips either

 

[therubbernub]

A way forward here for our squad, as demonstrated by all the best teams in the league and the most highly-rated PLAYERS in the league right now, is to find some mid-fwd hybrid type players. It doesn't have to be all 35 possession guys, there's huge value in a player who can get 20-25 as a mid, but also can stay forward and potentially jag 2-3-4 goals. Caddy, De Goey, Dusty, Danger, etc etc. I'm not necessarily saying "superstar" level, but someone we have not drafted in a long long time is a genuine power player who has tricks. We've for ages preferred the rangey athletes.

Such as ainsworth and Rayner in the past 2 drafts? I think Rankine potentially could be that player in this draft

 

[Soapy V]

Brisbane go OK and this is them vs us:
Andrews......McCluggage......Rayner.....Witherden.....Hipwood.....Berry.......Bailey...........Cox..............McStay.........Cutler......Gardiner......Mathieson
Weitering....Dow.................Fisher......O'Brien..........McKay.......SPS..........Williamson....Cuningham....Marchbank...Curnow....Macreadie....Kennedy

It's not always a like for like, but you get the idea.
Brisbane have had 2 distinct advantages over Carlton this year; a. Less injuries b. Better crop of mature players.
Another thing that stands out a little is that their picks overall, would be lower than ours. Most of our guys were taken relatively early on.

We're better. Better group and more elite prospects

 

[Red Bull]

Well , an early read of the tea leaves :
AFL will grant Carlton and GC a "before finalists" PP with an undertaking from the clubs to trade the picks for established talent.
Rumblings suggest McGovern linked to Carlton and Loyd linked to GC , the picks achieve their purpose and the AFL consider job done.
Add to McGovern , Walsh with our natural pick 1 and Shiel with our 2019 1st rounder.
Then Silvagni has the choice of taking our 2 x 2nd rounders to the draft or trading down to another 1st rounder , possibly North or Sydney's existing 1st rounder or , Sydney's newly acquired (Loyd) 1st rounder or any of Adelaide's handful of 1sts.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Can't see Freo agreeing to that. Considering where their list is at, why would they give up two gun kids (Cerra and whoever they intend to pick at 6) for 1 gun kid?

I'd also prefer we kept at the pointy end of this years draft and pickup one of Walsh, Smith, Lukosius or Rankine (or whoever SOS & co rates as #1).

this is all based on cerra wanting to leave and them identifying lukosius as their man (which they'd be near the top of the list of teams wanting to trade for a gun forward prospect)

But i agree that we need to stay near the top of this draft but for an excellent deal.

 

[juzza316]

Brisbane go OK and this is them vs us:
Andrews......McCluggage......Rayner.....Witherden.....Hipwood.....Berry.......Bailey...........Cox..............McStay.........Cutler......Gardiner......Mathieson
Weitering....Dow.................Fisher......O'Brien..........McKay.......SPS..........Williamson....Cuningham....Marchbank...Curnow....Macreadie....Kennedy

It's not always a like for like, but you get the idea.
Brisbane have had 2 distinct advantages over Carlton this year; a. Less injuries b. Better crop of mature players.
Another thing that stands out a little is that their picks overall, would be lower than ours. Most of our guys were taken relatively early on.

Too early to call either way- a bit like how Melbourne and St Kilda have been compared early days and now they are poles apart in terms of talent and ability

 

[katmanblue]

You keep groggily missing my assertion, so I'll re-state it again: Polson is one of the worst players currently getting a game in the AFL, and likely the worst player to have played 11 or more games this year.

Simpson was an anomaly and played in a different era. I'd be interested in seeing how many players from the past few years have kicked on after averaging 7 touches in their second season.

Small forwards with considerably better output (total goals, avg disposals) from 11 games

Daniel Menzel - 25, 11 disposals
Jeff Garlett - 18, 12 disposals
Charlie Cameron - 17, 13 disposals
Cam Polson - 1, 7 disposals

Keeping in mind the primary KPI of a small forward is goals kicked that looks appalling on Polson's end.

There is no way that Polson's KPI is goals. It would be tackles or 1% or pressure points.

He isnt in the team to kick goals. He is in the team to harrass because no one else seems to have the combination of the required pace or mindset to do so. He has mongrel, which Garlett Wright and to a lesser extent Pickett dont have.

There is no use measuring him on KPIs that are not part of his role. Any goals he kicks are a bonus.

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[katmanblue]

Which is why most teams give kids 1-2 games to see how they cope and how they contribute. If they don't play well they drop them back to the next level to work on things and see how they respond to being dropped.

There's not another younger player in the AFL that's had such a minimal impact during games that's managed to have such a long stretch of games as this lad.

Ok. Drop Polson. Who were the better options available for the games that he played?



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[katmanblue]

Every single small forward who played last weekend outperformed Polson in their second year. The best he can hope for is to become Alex Sexton.

Avg disposals/avg goals
Callum Ah Chee - 11.4, 0.9
Alex Sexton - 7.0, 0.8
Jed Lamb - 10.5, 0.8
Daniel Rioli - 10.8, 1.0
Robbie Gray - 13.4, 1.4
Stephen Motlop - 8.8, 0.5
Daniel Menzel - 12.8, 1.5
Michael Walters - 14.7, 1.3
Will Hayward - 11.8, 1.4
Tom Papley - 15.9, 1.6
Jack Lonie - 10.5, 1.0
Jack Sinclair - 12.6, 0.4
Jamie Cripps - 9.8, 0.8
Eddie Betts - 10.9, 1.0
Kayne Turner - 8.9, 0.6
Cam Polson - 6.9, 0.1

I originally had Breust, Puopolo, Ballantyne, Hannan but they were mature-age recruits so I took them out. Naturally their stats were also better. I also didn't include guys like Billings who are more flankers who rotate onto a wing than pure small forwards.

Polson actually reminds me of one of those small forwards that around in St Kilda's forwardline circa 2011-2014: Minchington, Templeton, Saad, Milera etc. Had a bit of flair and exuberance but just not the talent to really make a fist of it.

Godspeed Cam.

You may as well be measuring him on hitouts for all the relevance it has to his role on the team.

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[La Dispute]

There is no way that Polson's KPI is goals. It would be tackles or 1% or pressure points.

He isnt in the team to kick goals. He is in the team to harrass because no one else seems to have the combination of the required pace or mindset to do so. He has mongrel, which Garlett Wright and to a lesser extent Pickett dont have.

There is no use measuring him on KPIs that are not part of his role. Any goals he kicks are a bonus

I disagree - pressure and effort should be a baseline expectation of any player in the team.

He is in there because we literally have no other options. Matt Wright is already in the team and both Pickett and Garlett have shown a similar amount this year.

The fact he has kicked just one goal for the year is disappointing. I’ve seen him have opportunities to gather the ball inside 50 and have a shot, but he’s just not clean enough to execute. He fumbles or overcommits.

He’s going to struggle once we build some depth in this area.

 

[katmanblue]

And the only reason thats happened is because they believe if they expose them now it will pay us back I think polson will be fine he just needed to develope more but injury list has permitted him to keep playing

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Also need to remember he played very little footy as a junior due to injury as well as having his 1st year also injury effected.

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[Bostonian]

Ok. Drop Polson. Who were the better options available for the games that he played?



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With how he performs and his skill levels at present anyone could replace him and have the same minimal impact.

Have we tried Mullet up forward yet?

Fair chance he'd contribute as much up there as Polson would right now.

 

[HalAlaric]

My outs at 2018 end...
A.Silvagni (r) - confirmed retirement. Pity as I had him in the side for next year as more of a experienced head playing for Northern.

Shaw (r) - hasn't shown enough at either level for me so dumping to make room

Mullett - might be a little harsh but I was extremely disappointed with his recruitment and has never got back to his NM numbers. Not sure of his DE% but has seemed worful at times.

Graham - had too long on our list for the output he brings at afl level. Don't get me wrong I like the guy and he contributes week in week out for Northern but many, including first year players, have gone past him this year. Would love for Northern to offer him a contract.

Kerridge - as above.

Rowe or O'Shea (might look to rookie) - tough one for me as both bring to the table. Whoever, or if both end up staying with one rookied I would expect and hope them to play mainly at VFL level in 2019.

Garlett (to rookie) - This guy to definitely remain on the list but he needs to build his fitness base considerably and get strength into his body. I was also looking for a spare list spot and his name was drawn from the hat.

Glass-McCasker (r) - tough one again as is still so young. Just doesn't seem motivated to bring it every week. Does some nice things one week and then follows it up with several shockers.

LeBois (r) - as above minus the motivational part. Just extremely inconsistant and injury plagued.

Remaining players in positions I think they are best suited to...

KPD: Marchbank, Weitering, Macreadie, Jones, O'Shea/Rowe (1 x r)

MED/SML DEF: Docherty, Simpson, Plowman, Byrne, Williamson, Schumacher, McDaid

INS.MID: Cripps, Dow, Kennedy, E.Curnow

OUT.MID: Murphy, Fisher, Petrevski-Seton, O'Brien, Cuningham, J.Silvagni, Thomas

RUCK/FWD: Kreuzer, Phillips, Lobbe, De Koning

MED/SML FWD: Lang, Wright, Pickett, Lamb, Polson, Garlett (r)

KPF: C.Curnow, McKay, Casboult, Kerr

What I would like to see in our trade and draft periods:
1) A clear assessment of the teams immediate needs including mature talent of quality in the midfield and forward line.
2) Aquiring the very best where possible. No more new players that aren't making a grade in lowly placed sides and trialling them in positions they are not accustomed to.
3) Nabbing any two via trade of players we have been linked to that do not cost us an arm and a leg in draft picks eg. Lloyd (Syd), Brodie & Scrimshaw (GCS). Or alternatively looking at FA in Gaff (WCE), Fasolo (Coll) etc.
4) Picking up Ben Silvagni and both of the Hickmott boys... even with rookie picks.
5) Offering a veteran like Roughead (Haw) or McVeigh (Syd) a chance to help develop our players in a coaching/playing role even if somehow it was with our VFL side.

Just a few thoughts that I am sure won't eventuate 100% but wanted to sound it out nonetheless.
Go Blues!

 

[La Dispute]

You may as well be measuring him on hitouts for all the relevance it has to his role on the team.

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Coincidentally no one has actually brought out the statistics for Polson and his pressure acts v other small forwards in the league.

Until there’s some point of comparison why bleat the same tired argument? I mainly judge him on his lack of footy IQ, poor ball handling and skills relative to his position.

His inability to kick a goal or accumulate possessions doesn’t help though.

 

[F_therest]

Freo looking for gun key forward since Pavlich. Not been an easy search. Should pay heaps.

They might be OK with tabbener and Cox with McCarthy.

Though a quality young tall certainly wouldn't go astray.

 

[Stamos]

Just trying to think who that magic man was for the Dogs, a 28 year old Dickson, or a 30 year old Picken

Tom Boyd

 

[Blue__Balls]

Brisbane go OK and this is them vs us:
Andrews......McCluggage......Rayner.....Witherden.....Hipwood.....Berry.......Bailey...........Cox..............McStay.........Cutler......Gardiner......Mathieson
Weitering....Dow.................Fisher......O'Brien..........McKay.......SPS..........Williamson....Cuningham....Marchbank...Curnow....Macreadie....Kennedy

It's not always a like for like, but you get the idea.
Brisbane have had 2 distinct advantages over Carlton this year; a. Less injuries b. Better crop of mature players.
Another thing that stands out a little is that their picks overall, would be lower than ours. Most of our guys were taken relatively early on.

On that point, they've had the added benefit of an academy system, so some of their lower picks may have been naturally higher.

I do like what they've done. Main difference as I see it is they've targeted some mongrel, whereas we appear to have tried a "sensible team players only" approach. Not just with the draftees, but the mature recruits as well. Not sure which approach will be better long term - we may find more unity in our cohort, or we might find too much nice and not enough arrogance to take that next step.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I disagree - pressure and effort should be a baseline expectation of any player in the team.

He is in there because we literally have no other options. Matt Wright is already in the team and both Pickett and Garlett have shown a similar amount this year.

The fact he has kicked just one goal for the year is disappointing. I’ve seen him have opportunities to gather the ball inside 50 and have a shot, but he’s just not clean enough to execute. He fumbles or overcommits.

He’s going to struggle once we build some depth in this area.

Or he is going to improve over the next two seasons he is contracted for.

 

[katmanblue]

Gladly!

Please record the call and.put it up here. Id like to know how it went.

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[Blue__Balls]

Coincidentally no one has actually brought out the statistics for Polson and his pressure acts v other small forwards in the league.

Until there’s some point of comparison why bleat the same tired argument? I mainly judge him on his lack of footy IQ, poor ball handling and skills relative to his position.

His inability to kick a goal or accumulate possessions doesn’t help though.

Probably because it's not data that is readily available to fans. The AFL app shows pressure act numbers when you look at a player stats within a single match, but don't provide the full season total/average for that stat. So unless someone wants to manually source the data game by game for each player relevant to the discussion.....

Ultimately though, I do have serious concern with Polson. Love his intent, but you can't be getting 4-5 possessions and 1 tackle a game, whilst also having next to no scoreboard impact. He can certainly improve, and I'm not writing him off, but it wouldn't take much for someone to go past him in a hurry, which could seal his fate. Lebois is in the same boat. I'm all for giving kids time, but their opportunity doesn't exist in a vacuum - if someone gets drafted who can get it 10 times a game, average 3 tackles, and kick 25 goals for the year - that's the guy I want in the side.

 

[Blues90]

My outs at 2018 end...
A.Silvagni (r) - confirmed retirement. Pity as I had him in the side for next year as more of a experienced head playing for Northern.

Shaw (r) - hasn't shown enough at either level for me so dumping to make room

Mullett - might be a little harsh but I was extremely disappointed with his recruitment and has never got back to his NM numbers. Not sure of his DE% but has seemed worful at times.

Graham - had too long on our list for the output he brings at afl level. Don't get me wrong I like the guy and he contributes week in week out for Northern but many, including first year players, have gone past him this year. Would love for Northern to offer him a contract.

Kerridge - as above.

Rowe or O'Shea (might look to rookie) - tough one for me as both bring to the table. Whoever, or if both end up staying with one rookied I would expect and hope them to play mainly at VFL level in 2019.

Garlett (to rookie) - This guy to definitely remain on the list but he needs to build his fitness base considerably and get strength into his body. I was also looking for a spare list spot and his name was drawn from the hat.

Glass-McCasker (r) - tough one again as is still so young. Just doesn't seem motivated to bring it every week. Does some nice things one week and then follows it up with several shockers.

LeBois (r) - as above minus the motivational part. Just extremely inconsistant and injury plagued.

Remaining players in positions I think they are best suited to...

KPD: Marchbank, Weitering, Macreadie, Jones, O'Shea/Rowe (1 x r)

MED/SML DEF: Docherty, Simpson, Plowman, Byrne, Williamson, Schumacher, McDaid

INS.MID: Cripps, Dow, Kennedy, E.Curnow

OUT.MID: Murphy, Fisher, Petrevski-Seton, O'Brien, Cuningham, J.Silvagni, Thomas

RUCK/FWD: Kreuzer, Phillips, Lobbe, De Koning

MED/SML FWD: Lang, Wright, Pickett, Lamb, Polson, Garlett (r)

KPF: C.Curnow, McKay, Casboult, Kerr

What I would like to see in our trade and draft periods:
1) A clear assessment of the teams immediate needs including mature talent of quality in the midfield and forward line.
2) Aquiring the very best where possible. No more new players that aren't making a grade in lowly placed sides and trialling them in positions they are not accustomed to.
3) Nabbing any two via trade of players we have been linked to that do not cost us an arm and a leg in draft picks eg. Lloyd (Syd), Brodie & Scrimshaw (GCS). Or alternatively looking at FA in Gaff (WCE), Fasolo (Coll) etc.
4) Picking up Ben Silvagni and both of the Hickmott boys... even with rookie picks.
5) Offering a veteran like Roughead (Haw) or McVeigh (Syd) a chance to help develop our players in a coaching/playing role even if somehow it was with our VFL side.

Just a few thoughts that I am sure won't eventuate 100% but wanted to sound it out nonetheless.
Go Blues!

Lebois was actually very consistent before he popped his shoulder

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[katmanblue]

Just trying to think who that magic man was for the Dogs, a 28 year old Dickson, or a 30 year old Picken

Wright was almost that guy for us in 2016 -17. Anytime he got the ball near goal he looked dangerous.

Havent really had anyone like that since Eddy and Jeffy.

As for the Dogs, how is that relevant? I said every team needs one. Didnt say every team has one.

Eddy, Jeffy, wingard, gray, le cras(early days) Rioli (both of em) and even Puopolo are examples of the type of player I mean.


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[katmanblue]

Played well, loved his toughness, but still wouldn't call magic

Betts like or resting mids like Greene, Danger, Martin, Caddy. Either would work

I think you need both. If you have one guy with the razzle dazzle then you can have two resting mids with your three talls. Then rotate your mids through.

But I still maintain having one genuine crumbing forward is a must.

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[CJMB]

excuse my ignorance. What is Tomlinsons role now?

I see it as a sort of a hybrid wing-swingman role. Tomlinson has a big tank and good skills, roams the wing between each end of the ground. Because of his size he's hard to match up on, he'll drop back into the defensive 50 when under pressure to be an extra tall defender, does the reverse up forward when he can get a height-mismatch in the forward 50, provides a good target for the long kick down the line, still mobile enough to be involved in faster passages of play and provide some pressure.

Tomlinson and Macreadie are similarly sized (Macreadie should bulk up after another preseason or too to match AT). A lot of the negative comments around Tomlinson early where that he had no ideal position. Macreadie's draft profile reads similarly. I think realistically we could play Charlie, Weitering or Marchbank (or Lukosius, should that happen) in a similar role, but I'd rather them be our bookends, so to speak.

I could be off the mark here, but that's my read of the situation.