Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Captain Cripps]

Somewhat true, but it might matter to them. Considering they are both so passionate about the club, and so competitive, I hope that whoever misses out on the captaincy turns out to be our best vice captain ever. I still think that Carrazzo changed when he was overlooked as captain, although to be fair, there was a lot more going on at the time than just that fact....

What was going on at that time ?

 

[El Topo]

Triplets and calf injuries probably didn't help

 

[inyourcool]

I'm sorry but we cocked this up!

We buckled under the media pressure, felt that we had to respond to all the frothing about our plight being our own doing and not deserving a priority pick so we tried to be 10 men and say we don't need it!

Classical cut off nose to spite one's face reaction. Fair dinkum!!!

Every pick helps. We can't afford to disregard something of that type of value

 

[Blue__Balls]

Thinking about best case scenarios now that Cerra is off the table, I wonder if GC would entertain trading for Pick 1 plus our future first?

Lynch goes, they end up with 3 and 4.
Trade Pick 1 and future first for Picks 3 and 4.
If the future pick ends up any higher than 12, they come out ahead. Odds are it's top 6, which is a big win for them (3 + 4 for Luko + future top 6 pick).
If one of Scrimshaw/Brodie can be had, throw in Adelaide's second as well given they're likely "ahead" in the trade.

Trade is therefore: #3, #4 and Scrimshaw for #1, #27 and 2019 #5ish.
(values Scrimshaw around #11)

Shiel, Scrimshaw, Pick 3 (Walsh, Smith, Rankine), Pick 23 (Caldwell, Sparrow, Berry, Butters)​

 

[CJMB]

I'm sorry but we cocked this up!

We buckled under the media pressure, felt that we had to respond to all the frothing about our plight being our own doing and not deserving a priority pick so we tried to be 10 men and say we don't need it!

Classical cut off nose to spite one's face reaction. Fair dinkum!!!

Every pick helps. We can't afford to disregard something of that type of value

Or perhaps, as has been suggested here a bunch of times, we might have been told there was no way a PP was coming our way so the club chose to save face and make a public statement denouncing the possibility of a PP.

The club has made the call. Lets move on. Please.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Thinking about best case scenarios now that Cerra is off the table, I wonder if GC would entertain trading for Pick 1 plus our future first?

Lynch goes, they end up with 3 and 4.
Trade Pick 1 and future first for Picks 3 and 4.
If the future pick ends up any higher than 12, they come out ahead. Odds are it's top 6, which is a big win for them (3 + 4 for Luko + future top 6 pick).
If one of Scrimshaw/Brodie can be had, throw in Adelaide's second as well given they're likely "ahead" in the trade.

Trade is therefore: #3, #4 and Scrimshaw for #1, #27 and 2019 #5ish.
(values Scrimshaw around #11)

Shiel, Scrimshaw, Pick 3 (Walsh, Smith, Rankine), Pick 23 (Caldwell, Sparrow, Berry, Butters)​

You were going really well until you threw in our eventual pick #4 for Shiel.

I just can't see that happening. We won't be trading a top 4 pick for Dylan Shiel.

I'd really like for your scenario to play out, (I reckon GC will end up with #2+#3, the Lions will go ahead of them imo) but we keep #2+#3 and take 2 of Walsh/Smith/Rankine.

Get Shiel next year as a FA.

Also, I'd like Sparrow with #23 at this stage. Not sure he'll drop that far though.

 

[Blue__Balls]

You were going really well until you threw in our eventual pick #4 for Shiel.

I just can't see that happening. We won't be trading a top 4 pick for Dylan Shiel.

I'd really like for your scenario to play out, (I reckon GC will end up with #2+#3, the Lions will go ahead of them imo) but we keep #2+#3 and take 2 of Walsh/Smith/Rankine.

Get Shiel next year as a FA.

Also, I'd like Sparrow with #23 at this stage. Not sure he'll drop that far though.

My preference would be for us to get Shiel with our future first, because theoretically by bringing him in, and getting Docherty back, we should be capable of leaping up the ladder a fair bit. I just don't think GWS are going to let an important contracted player go for an unknown future pick. They'd just hold him to his contract and wait and see what our 2019 Pick was, before matching a FA bid and forcing a trade on their terms.

Gold Coast, on the other hand, are going to have plenty of picks this year as is, and may be open to spreading the love over two drafts while securing the best young KPP available. They take the risk that we're still a way off the mark next year, they delay and slightly downgrade one pick, upgrade the other, and get a second rounder for a player who isn't getting games despite appalling performances by their seniors. If they want to keep Scrimshaw/Brodie, happy for a second rounder to come our way instead.

Holistically - if we can get the mid we want at 3, it's basically:
Pick 1 -> Pick 3 (still get the player we prefer)
2019 Pick 4-8 -> Shiel
(Pick 27 -> Scrimshaw/Brodie) OR (Gain Pick 25ish)

We leverage a possible desire for GC to get Lukosius to trade our future pick for a pick that GWS are more likely to accept.

Would be perfectly happy for GWS to toss something else in with Shiel, of course, if 4 for Shiel is well in our favour.

 

[Broadside]

I have an ethical problem trading pick 1 to GCS. What has the kid done to deserve that?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Thinking about best case scenarios now that Cerra is off the table, I wonder if GC would entertain trading for Pick 1 plus our future first?

Lynch goes, they end up with 3 and 4.
Trade Pick 1 and future first for Picks 3 and 4.
If the future pick ends up any higher than 12, they come out ahead. Odds are it's top 6, which is a big win for them (3 + 4 for Luko + future top 6 pick).
If one of Scrimshaw/Brodie can be had, throw in Adelaide's second as well given they're likely "ahead" in the trade.

Trade is therefore: #3, #4 and Scrimshaw for #1, #27 and 2019 #5ish.
(values Scrimshaw around #11)

Shiel, Scrimshaw, Pick 3 (Walsh, Smith, Rankine), Pick 23 (Caldwell, Sparrow, Berry, Butters)​

I cant fathom why they would even entertain that. 3 and 4 gets them the King twins according to the draft watchers.

 

[blue healer]

Or perhaps, as has been suggested here a bunch of times, we might have been told there was no way a PP was coming our way so the club chose to save face and make a public statement denouncing the possibility of a PP.

The club has made the call. Lets move on. Please.

Pretty ordinary if the AFL were to tell a club midway through the season that there would be no priority pick IMO.

That decision could only be made at the end of the season and should (by their own acknowledgement) be based on the last few seasons and on that basis we should be a lay down misere to get one.

I don't care what anyone says we should not have made that announcement. Few clubs, in the last few years, would be more deserving of a PP.

I can't even remember when we last kicked 100 points. I think we need all the help we can get.

 

[bmaurizio]

Pretty ordinary if the AFL were to tell a club midway through the season that there would be no priority pick IMO.

That decision could only be made at the end of the season and should (by their own acknowledgement) be based on the last few seasons and on that basis we should be a lay down misere to get one.

I don't care what anyone says we should not have made that announcement. Few clubs, in the last few years, would be more deserving of a PP.

I can't even remember when we last kicked 100 points. I think we need all the help we can get.

Our CEO has made an absurd and premature statement by rejecting AFL assistance. Not forward thinking.
I’m shock he was cleared to make such a ridiculous announcement, if CFC is not eligible for a PP after historical lows of ast 5 years , then no other team in the completion is entitled to a PP also.
I hope there’s some other arrangement behind doors.

 

[blue healer]

Our CEO has made an absurd and premature statement by rejecting AFL assistance. Not forward thinking.
I’m shock he was cleared to make such a ridiculous announcement, if CFC is not eligible for a PP after historical lows of ast 5 years , then no other team in the completion is entitled to a PP ever.
I hope there’s some other arrangement behind doors.

Edited for accuracy.

 

[FRUMPY]

Pretty ordinary if the AFL were to tell a club midway through the season that there would be no priority pick IMO.

That decision could only be made at the end of the season and should (by their own acknowledgement) be based on the last few seasons and on that basis we should be a lay down misere to get one.

I don't care what anyone says we should not have made that announcement. Few clubs, in the last few years, would be more deserving of a PP.

I can't even remember when we last kicked 100 points. I think we need all the help we can get.

So decision shouldn't be made during the season then you go and say we are a certainty to get one and the season isn't over. Which one is it?

We don't deserve one. We hired shithouse recruiters and suffered the consequences, We cannot develop talent of any sort and are we are where we are because we cut our list so deep.

Again we don't deserve it, We got ourselves into this mess and need to get ourselves out of this mess.

I mean ffs, as of last year we had 4 no.1 draft picks on our list and we are still shit. Club needs to fix it's on problems and not expect handouts.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[BluesRule]

I cant fathom why they would even entertain that. 3 and 4 gets them the King twins according to the draft watchers.

Agree the King Twins would be a great response for GCS in losing Lynch.

Liked Scrimshaw and Brodie when drafted, but really struggling with valuations on here. If Kennedy dropped to #28 (and was playing well for GWS) it is hard to see how Scrimshaw and Brodie are worth a first round pick now. But they are contracted so best to ignore unless a favourable deal arises.

Really liked Greshams game on the weekend and would be really happy if we could convert #1 and #23 into Gresham and #4 from the Saints. Saints could really use a New Nick Reiwolt!

 

[blue healer]

So decision shouldn't be made during the season then you go and say we are a certainty to get one and the season isn't over. Which one is it?

We don't deserve one. We hired shithouse recruiters and suffered the consequences, We cannot develop talent of any sort and are we are where we are because we cut our list so deep.

Again we don't deserve it, We got ourselves into this mess and need to get ourselves out of this mess.

I mean ffs, as of last year we had 4 no.1 draft picks on our list and we are still shit. Club needs to fix it's on problems and not expect handouts.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

What I said was that the decision should not be made mid season by us. We know the AFL should never make that decision mid season and now we also know that they will not, be even tempted, to make it later.

You can debate forever whether we deserve one or not and few would argue that we didn't make our own bed, but it wasn't this regime that did it. This mob are trying to get us back into relevance and I'd argue that, even if we don't deserve it, we need some help.

And, despite some of the optimistic speculation on here, it's highly unlikely that FA will provide that help.

 

[Broadside]

What I said was that the decision should not be made mid season by us. We know the AFL will never make that decision mid season and now we also know that they will not be, even tempted, to make it later.

You can debate forever whether we deserve one or not and few would argue that we didn't make our own bed, but it wasn't this regime that did it. This mob are trying to get us back into relevance and I'd argue that, even if we don't deserve it, we need some help.

And, despite some of the optimistic speculation on here, it's highly unlikely that FA will provide that help.

I agree, forgoing any chance of the PP garnered us about a day and a half of positive publicity, since then as usual we have been hit from pillar to post by the media. The integrity of the AFL draft is already heavily compromised, if a PP is/was in the offing why look a gift horse in the mouth? take the pick, be thankful for maybe another good 10 year player and continue on the correct path we've taken. Do we need to reject a PP to feel better about ourselves? I'd say only wins will really do that.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I cant fathom why they would even entertain that. 3 and 4 gets them the King twins according to the draft watchers.

Comes down to the question marks some have raised over the King twins' transition to AFL. Are they just physically dominant against underdeveloped kids, and is the athletically gifted Lukosius with his ridiculous workrate, plus a top 8 pick, the safer option?

I can't answer that, neither can anyone else here. Still, worth mulling over the possibilities.

Picks 3 + 4 equate to Picks 1 + 12, so 1 + ~4-6 (call it 5, conservatively) represents good value. We care less about the value if we still get our preference with a top 3 pick, and we're ontrading the other for Shiel. Obviously you want to attach names to those picks to get a better idea of value, but I don't know enough about the 2019 draft crop to comment specifically. Going off historical picks though:

King + King
VS
Lukosius + Cerra/Setterfield/Parish/DeGoey/Kolodjashnij/Stringer

Gold Coast don't even need to take it to the draft. They might go after another Lachie Weller type trade, in which case they benefit the same way we do if we're chasing Shiel. They could upgrade 3 to 1, downgrade 4 to something around ~5 a year later, and on-trade that anyway for an established quality player.

There's a risk we take, in that a few injuries could mean we give up 1 and 3 for 3 and 4. But Gold Coast take the risk that we shoot up the ladder with a good run and they only get 1 and 8, which is still a good deal.

 

[Stamos]

if a PP is/was in the offing why look a gift horse in the mouth?

Yeah, it wasn't. The AFL are not giving us a priority pick this year.

When the media suggested we should apply for one, we did the right thing and said we will not apply. It's pretty simple.

 

[Broadside]

Yeah, it wasn't. The AFL are not giving us a priority pick this year.

When the media suggested we should apply for one, we did the right thing and said we will not apply. It's pretty simple.

how do you know the AFL wasn't going to give us a PP? we have won 1 game in the last 24 or so, it has been a dreadful 4 years. We have been a basket case (with occasional glimpses of light) since about 2003. The AFL would want and need us to be stronger because our supporter base is dropping off, it's not good for business.

 

[blue healer]

Yeah, it wasn't. The AFL are not giving us a priority pick this year.

When the media suggested we should apply for one, we did the right thing and said we will not apply. It's pretty simple.

Well they're definitely not going to give us one now but, unless you have a crystal ball, you cannot possibly know that they wouldn't have if our season doesn't improve dramatically.

And why would we let media dickheads like Whately interfere with our strategy?

 

[CJMB]

Pretty ordinary if the AFL were to tell a club midway through the season that there would be no priority pick IMO.

That decision could only be made at the end of the season and should (by their own acknowledgement) be based on the last few seasons and on that basis we should be a lay down misere to get one.

I don't care what anyone says we should not have made that announcement. Few clubs, in the last few years, would be more deserving of a PP.

I can't even remember when we last kicked 100 points. I think we need all the help we can get.

Without being incredibly well versed in the current rulings on priority pick applicability... perhaps we don't meet the criteria? In which case it's not crazy for them to let us know.

We've only had the 1 win this year but maybe because we notched 13 in the previous 2 years that's seen as enough to be 'not deserving'.

Or that we've traded some senior players out for picks on our own accord, unlike the Brisbane exodus they had a few years back.

I know you're pissed off and blaming the club but there's plenty of reasons why we might not even have been for considered for a pick (Cue anti CFC conspiracy theories...), and the club responded in a way that should reinforce the member/supporter belief in our process.

One things for sure, I'm glad the club didn't go on record saying we need one for us to get to the end of the season and have the AFL say we're not eligible, which would make us look like a ******* joke.

 

[Broadside]

Without being incredibly well versed in the current rulings on priority pick applicability... perhaps we don't meet the criteria? In which case it's not crazy for them to let us know.

We've only had the 1 win this year but maybe because we notched 13 in the previous 2 years that's seen as enough to be 'not deserving'.

Or that we've traded some senior players out for picks on our own accord, unlike the Brisbane exodus they had a few years back.

I know you're pissed off and blaming the club but there's plenty of reasons why we might not even have been for considered for a pick (Cue anti CFC conspiracy theories...), and the club responded in a way that should reinforce the member/supporter belief in our process.

One things for sure, I'm glad the club didn't go on record saying we need one for us to get to the end of the season and have the AFL say we're not eligible, which would make us look like a ******* joke.

I hear what you're saying but I believe they should have let the media talk die out (would only have taken a few days) and see how the rest of the season panned out. I believe in the process but a PP doesn't cut across that process, it accelerates the renewal.

 

[blue healer]

Without being incredibly well versed in the current rulings on priority pick applicability... perhaps we don't meet the criteria? In which case it's not crazy for them to let us know.

We've only had the 1 win this year but maybe because we notched 13 in the previous 2 years that's seen as enough to be 'not deserving'.

Or that we've traded some senior players out for picks on our own accord, unlike the Brisbane exodus they had a few years back.

I know you're pissed off and blaming the club but there's plenty of reasons why we might not even have been for considered for a pick (Cue anti CFC conspiracy theories...), and the club responded in a way that should reinforce the member/supporter belief in our process.

One things for sure, I'm glad the club didn't go on record saying we need one for us to get to the end of the season and have the AFL say we're not eligible, which would make us look like a ******* joke.

Sorry, I'm not pissed off and blame is not something I'm big on. I'm merely making an observation that I don't consider that to be the smartest move the club could make.

I even concede that it may have been part of the clubs strategy, I can't see it, but I'm not in there.

Don't know if that makes sense and may be a bit ambiguous but I'm not angry, just a tad puzzled.

Incidentally this is the first comment I've made on the PP.

 

[Talrahir]

I would have thought every death is caused due to heart stop pumping...?

Or a lack of oxygenated blood. If this is provided by other means, the heart beating isn't immediately critical. We are not declared dead when our heart stops beating, anyway.

Case in point: Weiterbot runs on oil. He has pipes, funnels, valves and the like.

 

[blue healer]

Or a lack of oxygenated blood. If this is provided by other means, the heart beating isn't immediately critical. We are not declared dead when our heart stops beating, anyway.

Case in point: Weiterbot runs on oil. He has pipes, funnels, valves and the like.

How often do we need to give him a service?

Cue potential F/S comments.