Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Blue and Silver]

Its easier to be in good spirits when your kids (a good 25% of the side most weeks) don't get tired by around half-way through Q3.

Also when you win.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Balme is 66 years old now, so won't be on our shopping list. As long as there is due process undertaken in the search, we can't expect much more than that as supporters. The Richmond spirit began snowballing with winning, which we aren't currently placed to expect much of. Resilience is more important for the time being until the list matures.

I also think, as a group, they reached a point where there were no more excuses. Fit list, prime age demographic, making finals semi-regularly - it gave the coaches a platform to say "Hey guys, this is on you. Do you want it or not, because you may never get a better chance", and the players responded.

For Carlton, we're still young, inexperienced, crippled by injury, the team has 3-4 changes most weeks etc. It's not just that those things make it harder to perform consistently well, it's that the club and players know they do. There's an out. The focus is on doing things well in isolation, and gradually building towards putting together four quarters of well-executed small things.

If in 2022 we've made finals a couple of years running without making much of an impact, that's when you'd put us in the basket of 2017 Richmond - put up or shut up.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Feel we simply must support Cripps next season with some experienced class in the midfield ... no ifs ... no buts.
If Shiel wants to come home to Victoria and more specifically Carlton , he fits the bill perfectly.
The clubs desired age , class and experience , he together with Dow supplies the explosion from the contest and both can play inside and out whilst complimenting Cripps/Kennedy as the inside bulls supplying SPS , Fisher and O'Brien on the outside.
In a perfect world we'd like to wait until the following year and attempt to snare him as a FA but as has been well covered by many here , the AFL jungle is far from that world for the 18th placed team.
Our 2019 1st rounder would be around the mark but i fear GWS will want to bring our 2018 1st into play for their still contracted player.
So as has been suggested , our 1st (1) for Shiel and their 1st (9) .
Pick 9 could well land Ian Hill , a very classy , pacy and dynamic small forward/mid that the team is crying out for.
Pick 1 this year sounds like Luk , but we have invested heavily in Curnow and McKay so should back them in now with Kerr , DeKonning and the Silvagni brothers in support.
Shiel and Hill types are at the top of our shopping list and pick 1 this year can facilitate them.
Sloane and Gaff remain available as FA's and we hold 2 nice 2nd rounders to fill in the gaps.

This. Nail on the head

 

[thebluelagoon]

We talk about this player and that trade and pick # this and pick # that and all that is important and it pains me to say this, but give us the spirit Richmond is playing with and enjoying themselves in, over any player.

I'm somewhat confident in saying that Richmond had a good mix at board and executive levels but Balme was the missing piece in their puzzle.
I know that's not talking about the List management we know, but it is about managing the components within that list.

Not sure who our next Football Manager will be, but I'd love him to have the temperament, empathy and the understanding of a Balme and know how to placate what can be a tough environment to reside in.

No doubt about it, Richmond are up and about. Those boys are absolutely loving playing foot as a team, doing the team thing. Credit to the club for getting their SHIITTTE together big time! easier to enjoy yourself when you are winning every week, but I suspect there is a chicken and egg in terms of the team play and the sacrifice leading to wins. Super motivated club!

agree with Harks, but this is a dark art, at collingwood Malthouse had the rat pack going beautifully but at carlton, the old geriatric was flicking blokes left and right because of discipline and motivation issues he couldn't temper... (robinson, yarren, betts, garlet, mummies boy...)

 

[StandByyourMan]

Why do people want to go back to the OLD Carlton way? It hasn't worked for the last 20 years. Keep drafting the best young talent available until we are a genuine top 8 side.

Why are people so worried about Cripps? It doesn't matter who we recruit he is going to play the same way. He's an inside midfielder who plays his best footy in the midfield.

Two words. Chop out

 

[AndyLucimitis]

On a separate note, I don't read a lot on here about Angus Schumacher. People who watch the ressies - what's your opinion on him, any word from the club on his progress and do we see him fitting into the team going forward. Seems a bit of a Kade Simpson replacement ?

 

[El Topo]

Why do people want to go back to the OLD Carlton way? It hasn't worked for the last 20 years. Keep drafting the best young talent available until we are a genuine top 8 side.

Why are people so worried about Cripps? It doesn't matter who we recruit he is going to play the same way. He's an inside midfielder who plays his best footy in the midfield.

One week with a fit/firing Kennedy and Dow, and Cripps is kicking goals and hitting targets by foot. Cripps won't play the same way with better support, he'll ascend to another level.

 

[bludrew79]

Cake and eat it too..
Get Shiel for our first pick...
Get another 1st round pick via trades...
Draft some elite talent in this years draft...
OLD Carlton getting a hired JET... NEW Carlton keeps bringing in the next generation

 

[DangerousD]

Like I said, the best way to **** your list. Means they are forced to sell players, maybe players who actually want to stay. The club is forced into a position they don't want to be in because they tried to bluff?

You're ignoring all the work that goes into these offers before they are made, hence only two FAs have been traded for, Dangerfield who didn't even get to FA offer stage because the trade was worked out, and Port traded for someone as to not diminish their compensation.

I’m not ignoring the work, I just think there isn’t any risk because there is no chance he stays. Your last point about Port trading as not to diminish their compo adds another hurdle, if any two of their 3 main guys leave they will have cash and might go after a FA themselves.

 

[Bluey24]

Surely, if we're sticking to the plan, then SOS is fully within his rights to trade this year's, and next's, first-round picks

That's what I expect to happen

 

[DangerousD]

Massive flaws in the rules if a club can make an offer they can't actually afford just to force a trade

The AFL conveniently changed the rules after they gave Melb pick 3 for Frawley and had no trouble bending the rules to give Geelong pick 19-20 for Motlop, they brought in rules surrounding the trading of future picks only to allow Geelong to break them immediately via a request, they have changed the rules on umpires contact this year conveniently after Ed cops a suspension and it wouldn’t surprise me that if Lynch leaves at seasons end that the GC will get pick 1.

 

[Bluey24]

The AFL conveniently changed the rules after they gave Melb pick 3 for Frawley and had no trouble bending the rules to give Geelong pick 19-20 for Motlop, they brought in rules surrounding the trading of future picks only to allow Geelong to break them immediately via a request, they have changed the rules on umpires contact this year conveniently after Ed cops a suspension and it wouldn’t surprise me that if Lynch leaves at seasons end that the GC will get pick 1.

Yep. I'm convinced GC will get a #1 PP

 

[jd2010]

Surely they'll get the pick after their first pick in the draft

 

[Broadside]

Yep. I'm convinced GC will get a #1 PP

if that happened and we got robbed of a number 1 pick I would quit following AFL forever. This hypothetical is making me angry already.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Massive flaws in the rules if a club can make an offer they can't actually afford just to force a trade

With multiple opportunities to delist, recruit and draft players, GWS can match a bid on the basis that should Shiel be forced to stay, they can make other arrangements to balance their salary cap for the following year.

Could be as simple as trading Kelly to North Melbourne for a couple of first rounders and change. Bang - salary cap space for Shiel. Or delisting/retiring Griffen and Deledio, replacing them with draftees.

I think Danes point is that, regardless of all that, GWS would expect Shiel to go, it's just a question of whether they can force a trade to improve their return. Pick 14 vs. Pick 7 - they do what they need to do to force us to trade 7. They'd probably be happy to toss in a second rounder as well, to be honest.

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

This time of year is all about hypotheticals, so let's have a look at some "What-ifs."

What If...

Melbourne are happy to trade out Tyson, to help them keep Brayshaw and get Gaff? Then a future second gets us a player who will be best 22, help Cripps go forward more often like Sat, and Melb get good currency for a borderline best 22. Good business for both clubs.

What if..

As rumoured, Brandon Ellis was to come to us? I don't buy it, as he's contracted until 2019, but what if it was Corey Ellis? OOC this year. Good business by us.

What if...

We have pick 1 and draft Lukosious? Does that make McKay tradeable? Would a trade for McKay with GC for their Lynch compensation be good business for both clubs (and probably other bits and pieces going back and forth)? I think so, means we could then get for argument a midfielder like smith to go with Lukosious.

What if..

We keep Murph. Would be good for both parties. The Crawford comparison someone made is not that far off the mark I think.

What if...

We get 2 of Sloane/Atley/Lester/Wallis/Horlin-Smith/Conca, then our midfield depth is really looking good.

What if..

we traded in for a pack of chips the likes of Leslie from GC, Miles from Rich, Jong from dogs. Then our depth gets much better.

What if..

we then ended up with something like;

Draft
Lukosious
Smith
2 x late picks

Trade in

C Ellis
Tyson
Jong
Leslie

FA in

Sloane
Atley

Out

McKay + x others

What if...!??!

I wouldn't be so eager to trade out Harry McKay.
Josh Kennedy didn't have a lot of impact in his first 4 seasons and then started to hit his straps in year 5 & now he's kicked almost 550 goals.
We've put 3 years of development into Harry and we'll begin to reap the rewards over the next few years.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bludrew79]

if that happened and we got robbed of a number 1 pick I would quit following AFL forever. This hypothetical is making me angry already.

Happy to be corrected...
But I believe Max FA comp is pick AFTER your own 1st rounder..
MAX priority pick compo follows the same rules...

I thought the AFL abolished the ability to get #1 pick as compo...
But it is the AFL so who knows

 

[big_sav]

if GWS dont want our future first could we possibly trade our future first to a club say the kangaroos who wont need their first rounder due to tarryn thomas being drafted as an academy pick. mayb our future first for pick 10 and on-trade that to GWS for shiel?

 

[Blue and Silver]

I know it is instinctive to view trading a first round pick as trading the future. But the point of successful list management is creating a critical mass of talent in an age bracket.

If you keep clinging to the draft you create an even distribution of talent to age.

When what you want is a dense packing of prime age talent.

Right now our best two players under 30 are Docherty (25 at seasons end) and Patrick Cripps (23 ar seasons end).

We need to give them support so that the next wave (Curnow, Weitering, Petrevski-Seton, Fisher, Dow, O'Brien) has experienced vets to lead them.

Banking on draftees mean wasting the best years of Doc and Cripps, and the last years of Murph, Simmo, Ed and Kreuze

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[Blue__Balls]

if that happened and we got robbed of a number 1 pick I would quit following AFL forever. This hypothetical is making me angry already.

Best way to avoid that is to tell the AFL we're open to trading them the number 1 pick anyway. The motivation in giving them the PP would be to let them land Lukosius as a marquee replacement for Lynch - by opening up that possibility ourselves it gives the AFL a convenient out.

Lynch goes, they get Pick 4 compo.

1 + 23 for 4, 16 + Brodie (values Brodie @ 26).

4 for Shiel.

Gold Coast get Pick 1 (Lukosius), Pick 3 (Walsh/Smith), Pick 23 to replace Lynch, Brodie and Pick 16.
GWS get better value for Shiel than they're likely to see next year, and can get a Smith/Rankine/King at Pick 4 depending on their preference.
Carlton turn Picks 1 and 23 into Shiel, Brodie and Pick 16 (Taylor, Rozee etc). Retain Pick 27 as well.

 

[jooce8891]

Hit the draft again this year and target free agency next year..2020 is the year we push for finals.. Not good list management getting a Shiel now for a first rounder when in twelve months we can have him or Kelly for nothing.

i dont get what people dont understand, yes we COULD get him for nothing next year, but we have to compete against 17 other teams who want him and it not worth the risk, he's exactly what we need and if he nominates us this year why would we pass it up?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I know it is instinctive to view trading a first round pick as trading the future. But the point of successful list management is creating a critical mass of talent in an age bracket.

If you keep clinging to the draft you create an even distribution of talent to age.

When what you want is a dense packing of prime age talent.

Right now our best two players under 30 are Docherty (25 at seasons end) and Patrick Cripps (23 ar seasons end).

We need to give them support so that the next wave (Curnow, Weitering, Petrevski-Seton, Fisher, Dow, O'Brien) has experienced vets to lead them.

Banking on draftees mean wasting the best years of Doc and Cripps, and the last years of Murph, Simmo, Ed and Kreuze

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

Possible best 22 players next year will be turning
Murphy 32
Simpson 35
Kruezer 30
Curnow 30
Wright 30
Casboult 29
Jones 28
Doc 27
Plowman 26
Lang 26
Cripps 24
Marchbank 23
Pickett 23
Weitering 22
Curnow 22
Kennedy 22
McKay 22
Cunningham 22
JSOS 22
With Fisher and SPS turning 21

That's not a young side. We just have to hope our kids are good because they are coming into the age where good players start taking control.

 

[AB_Blue]

If our top 3 pick (not convinced that it’s going to be pick 1) is good enough to land Shiel and change then I say we do it

If we could some how convince GWS to take
next years first then great let’s do that instead!

Getting Shiel this year might also convince Gaff to also join the journey!

Gaff, Shiel, Cripps, Murphy, Kennedy, Fisher, Curnow, SPS, Dow, Lang, Cunners

That’s depth!

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Best way to avoid that is to tell the AFL we're open to trading them the number 1 pick anyway. The motivation in giving them the PP would be to let them land Lukosius as a marquee replacement for Lynch - by opening up that possibility ourselves it gives the AFL a convenient out.

Lynch goes, they get Pick 4 compo.

1 + 23 for 4, 16 + Brodie (values Brodie @ 26).

4 for Shiel.

Gold Coast get Pick 1 (Lukosius), Pick 3 (Walsh/Smith), Pick 23 to replace Lynch, Brodie and Pick 16.
GWS get better value for Shiel than they're likely to see next year, and can get a Smith/Rankine/King at Pick 4 depending on their preference.
Carlton turn Picks 1 and 23 into Shiel, Brodie and Pick 16 (Taylor, Rozee etc). Retain Pick 27 as well.

If I put my GWS hat on I say no to that and if I put my Gold Coast hat on I say hell no.

 

[therubbernub]

We talk about this player and that trade and pick # this and pick # that and all that is important and it pains me to say this, but give us the spirit Richmond is playing with and enjoying themselves in, over any player.

I'm somewhat confident in saying that Richmond had a good mix at board and executive levels but Balme was the missing piece in their puzzle.
I know that's not talking about the List management we know, but it is about managing the components within that list.

Not sure who our next Football Manager will be, but I'd love him to have the temperament, empathy and the understanding of a Balme and know how to placate what can be a tough environment to reside in.

Balme has an enviable record as an administrator