Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Beer n Skittles]

I'm on board with trading in some players, mainly because it's what the club has said they're going to do.

I doubted them last year when they said they were going to keep cutting the list, turns out I was wrong. I'm not going to doubt them again this year because they've actually been pretty damn transparent throughout this rebuild.

This year the talk is we're cutting less & trying to establish some continuity in the group, plus trying to trade for some established players. So I'm on board with that. Just stay in the first two rounds. So downgrading our 1st rounder & selling a 2nd rounder are the two big bargaining chips.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Do we need pick 1?

Well... no

Would it be nice? Yes

But Pick 1, leaving aside the candidates, means investing in an 18yo when we're already loaded up on talented but inexperienced kids.

That's not a great move, we need experienced mids to push more of our fringe players into, well, the fringes.

Trading pick 1 is not selling out on the rebuild, its going to stage 2.

It gives the players hope that next year will be better, it gives other targets the idea we're going somewhere.

What is pick 1 going to do for us next year?

Basically nothing.

What would Shiel do?

Push us up the ladder.

Exactly, and what does pushing us up the ladder prematurely do? 2011 all over again is your answer.

we'll climb up to about 5th and then bottom out again.

I've heard the same argument in 2007 when we got Judd. Apparently back then we already had the early draft picks (three #1's in fact) and we all know the end result. difference is at that time we absolutely needed a Judd type figure so it was a good move imo. this time we don't. also free agency wasn't around back then either. This time, we keep every first pick we get.

 

[Blue__Balls]

If I put my GWS hat on I say no to that and if I put my Gold Coast hat on I say hell no.

Thinking about it more...I wonder if the motivation to take Lukosius is even that high for GC.

If they end up with 3 and 4 via Lynch going, do they just take both the King boys to minimise the go-home risk?

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Exactly, and what does pushing us up the ladder prematurely do? 2011 all over again is your answer.

we'll climb up to about 5th and then bottom out again.

I've heard the same argument in 2007 when we got Judd. Apparently back then we already had the early draft picks (three #1's in fact) and we all know the end result. difference is at that time we absolutely needed a Judd type figure so it was a good move imo. this time we don't. also free agency wasn't around back then either. This time, we keep every first pick we get.

Stacking a team with number 1 draft picks hasn't exactly been the road map for success in the past either.

The Judd trade would've been excellent, except we didn't develop any decent players for half a decade.

 

[CJMB]

It amazes me that you as a footy fan can see the AFL constantly massage and manipulate any situation to get an outcome they want but then refuse to acknowledge that it might happen in the future.

Who is to say a club can’t afford to match an offer? Do you think the AFL is sending accountants to clubs when they match a bid to comb their finances?

Take it to the bank, if Shiel leaves as a FA the Giants will match any bid thus forcing a trade, a trade will get done.

Supporters can jump up and down but if a trade gets done then the Giants don’t have to prove they could have paid, they only have to pay if he stays.

So risk, bluff, call it what you will but the AFL will do nothing.

As a hypothetical, what if we offered ~$900k pa and GWS decide to match, but we just say we weren't willing to trade for him, only pick up as a 'free hit' through FA.

Does that mean GWS are stuck having to honor the new contract (which I'm guessing would be signed prior to trade week) and leave them in a situation where they are forced to trade other players to get under the TPP limit?

Hard to see anyone being particularly interested in taking the veterans on the list (Shaw, Griffen, Deledio) so they'd have to offload a couple of younger talented players they probably had long term plans for. Can't just delist/retire anyone because you have to pay them out and it counts in the TPP. GWS find themselves having to sell someone (or multiple younger players) to find the money. Who gets let go? Kelly? Whitfield? Taranto & or Hopper?...

if that happened and we got robbed of a number 1 pick I would quit following AFL forever. This hypothetical is making me angry already.

Really? You're that fickle over one position in the order?

 

[bludrew79]

The Judd trade would've been excellent, except we didn't develop any decent players for half a decade.

This is 100% the case...
Getting Judd was amazing... it was the drafting / development / GWS & GCS expansion that killed it...
In the 5 years since Juddy joined us in 2007-8 offseason we picked...
Yarran, Lucas, Watson, Bootsma, Menzel as out 1st round selections.... Yikes

I would back SOS to get Sheil in and do better with the next 5 years first rounders

 

[Broadside]

Really? You're that fickle over one position in the order?

yeah, straw that broke the camel's back and all that. Hanging onto AFL by my fingernails, Carlton is struggling for 20 years and the non Carlton games are mostly a shite product. And the competition is so compromised on so many levels it's used up all my credits.

It's the principal - letting traditional football states (Tas) and clubs wither on the vine whilst the AFL empire builds (GWS and GCS). It's BS and I have had enough. Enough!

 

[bludrew79]

yeah, straw that broke the camel's back and all that. Hanging onto AFL by my fingernails, Carlton is struggling for 20 years and the non Carlton games are mostly a shite product. And the competition is so compromised on so many levels it's used up all my credits.

Not quite going to give up on it all... history will show it was a shocking idea... 16 teams was plenty!

But I do wish we had a crack at players like Dion Prestia and Taylor Adams in their draft year...
All while Juddy was still in his prime

 

[King Cripps]

I'm warming to the idea for trading Dylan Shiel in at the end of the season. If Dylan wants to come to Carlton at the end of the season we should pull the trigger and who knows exactly what happens a year later when he is a free agent, there are too many unknowns. Sheil is a gun and would help our club enormously and that may also help keep Murph and may help get Gaff as a free agent.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Thinking about it more...I wonder if the motivation to take Lukosius is even that high for GC.

If they end up with 3 and 4 via Lynch going, do they just take both the King boys to minimise the go-home risk?

That's what I'd be thinking if I was them. Get Walsh/Smith and one of the Kings. Looking at the ratings on the draft boards there looks like top end talent could still be around at 15-20 so that picks still bloody handy for them too

 

[StandByyourMan]

The people against the idea of trading out our first rounder, respectfully, don't get it.

 

[Bluey24]

Best way to avoid that is to tell the AFL we're open to trading them the number 1 pick anyway. The motivation in giving them the PP would be to let them land Lukosius as a marquee replacement for Lynch - by opening up that possibility ourselves it gives the AFL a convenient out.

Lynch goes, they get Pick 4 compo.

1 + 23 for 4, 16 + Brodie (values Brodie @ 26).

4 for Shiel.

Gold Coast get Pick 1 (Lukosius), Pick 3 (Walsh/Smith), Pick 23 to replace Lynch, Brodie and Pick 16.
GWS get better value for Shiel than they're likely to see next year, and can get a Smith/Rankine/King at Pick 4 depending on their preference.
Carlton turn Picks 1 and 23 into Shiel, Brodie and Pick 16 (Taylor, Rozee etc). Retain Pick 27 as well.

Makes too much sense for my liking

 

[Sector 7G]

Best way to avoid that is to tell the AFL we're open to trading them the number 1 pick anyway. The motivation in giving them the PP would be to let them land Lukosius as a marquee replacement for Lynch - by opening up that possibility ourselves it gives the AFL a convenient out.

Lynch goes, they get Pick 4 compo.

1 + 23 for 4, 16 + Brodie (values Brodie @ 26).

4 for Shiel.

Gold Coast get Pick 1 (Lukosius), Pick 3 (Walsh/Smith), Pick 23 to replace Lynch, Brodie and Pick 16.
GWS get better value for Shiel than they're likely to see next year, and can get a Smith/Rankine/King at Pick 4 depending on their preference.
Carlton turn Picks 1 and 23 into Shiel, Brodie and Pick 16 (Taylor, Rozee etc). Retain Pick 27 as well.

1.5 years in have we seen anything from Brodie that makes us want to recruit him (I was keen on him in his draft year) apart from his junior reputation?

 

[Love the Drake]

Call me delusional (please stop at that!), but I don’t see our situation as dire. A season ruined by a multitude of injuries. Our best team is competitive and would have seen us winning around 5 games, plus developing our youngsters.

Off season sees a new fitness and conditioning team employed.

Quality first 22 players in Murph, Doc, Marchbank and Plowman fit and available first round next year.

Willo, Kennedy, Lang, SPS, Pickett, Byrne who should/could be best 22 finally getting a full pre-season and ready to go first round next year.

Fringe players like Cuningham, Mckay, Macreadie and Kerr having 8 more games this year and a full pre-season to further develop.

Dow, LOB, TDK and Schumacher all developing nicely.

IF Murph goes, which I pray he doesn’t, we get a compensation pick which we use for an experienced on-baller.

IF we finish last the AFL should give us a PP - remember we don’t have to ask for it, it’s the AFL’s decision whether we get one or not.

IF we get pick 1 we could trade it for a gun midfielder AND a draft pick. OR we just take the best player in the draft and our two second rounders looking to be 23 & 26).

Can also see some trades happening.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

1.5 years in have we seen anything from Brodie that makes us want to recruit him (I was keen on him in his draft year) apart from his junior reputation?

It's hard to tell because it seems as if Dew is making players earn their spot so he has battled to get a game. I seen the GWS game and he looked fine. Probably better output than what we have gotten from Dow, LOB and SPS for the majority of the season. I really can't make an informed opinion on it off one game though.

 

[BluesRule]

I wouldn't be so eager to trade out Harry McKay.
Josh Kennedy didn't have a lot of impact in his first 4 seasons and then started to hit his straps in year 5 & now he's kicked almost 550 goals.
We've put 3 years of development into Harry and we'll begin to reap the rewards over the next few years.


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If you compare Joshua Kennedy to Harry at the same age the result is very very close (Harry kicks more goals, but Kennedy got more ball). We must keep Harry unless serious overs are paid.

If we had of kept Kennedy and played hard ball with West Coast all those years ago we probably would have gone close to a flag. Judd had nominated us yet we still overpaid IMO (much as I loved having Judd). Pity SOS was not the list manager back then

 

[StandByyourMan]

This'll get shouted down BUT consider trading Kreuzer for mine. Fire at will (but ffs take the emotion out of it).

 

[F_therest]

This'll get shouted down BUT consider trading Kreuzer for mine. Fire at will (but ffs take the emotion out of it).

Wouldn't get much given his age and injury history TBH

 

[StandByyourMan]

Wouldn't get much given his age and injury history TBH

that is probably right.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Not sure how. But i think we are dead set certin to secure will brodie

wouldn't say no to this.

 

[V23]

If we pass on drafting Lukosius and he comes on as expected, I look forward to it appearing in 'Worst trades of all-time' articles for years to come.

The point might be moot if we end up with pick 2, 3 or 4 but, you take Lukosius every time. Use the rest of our picks on midfielders and go hard at Shiel next year as a free agent. No more shortcuts.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Wouldn't get much given his age and injury history TBH

We may not get much but Im not opposed to moving Kruezer on.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

If I put my GWS hat on I say no to that and if I put my Gold Coast hat on I say hell no.

Not sure why you think GCS would say no to picks 1 and 3.

 

[Tushay]

If we end up with pick #1, SOS won't want to be the guy who passed on Lukosius unless the trade offer is very, very good. That's a pretty good situation to be in.

My dream scenario would be:

Trade next year's first for Shiel, and don't get into a bidding war for Shiel.
Pay the $ to land Lycett as a FA this year. (Have serious doubts about how far Kreuz will go from here).
If we get pick #1 take Lukosius.
B-SOS as FS.
More mids with other picks.

 

[Pafloyul]

The only way I'd be giving pick one (if we had it) would be for a good young player and dropping down the draft by only two or three spots. Scrimshaw and Max or Ben King might be better than Lukosius.