Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Blues90]

Which is why most teams give kids 1-2 games to see how they cope and how they contribute. If they don't play well they drop them back to the next level to work on things and see how they respond to being dropped.

There's not another younger player in the AFL that's had such a minimal impact during games that's managed to have such a long stretch of games as this lad.

And the only reason thats happened is because they believe if they expose them now it will pay us back I think polson will be fine he just needed to develope more but injury list has permitted him to keep playing

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[La Dispute]

i would say that equal of the goals is pressure for a small forward these days and he's the best at it that we have. Wright is the best small forward on the list but he's way too slow and picket is a winger. the fact that polson has played so many games with such little output is primarily because our small forward depth might be the worst any club has ever had at any position ever.

All true. We’d love a player like Rayner or Rankine developing in that forwardline alongside Curnow and McKay

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Agree Polson is only playing because the cupboard is completely bare. Tough on him. Tracking like a Buckley or Armfield for mine.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I don't agree with targeting small forwards, for me that limits the depth of your list. Build a midfield and the excess can be small forwards, Stevie J, Greene, Motlop, Wingard, Gray, Higgins, Walters. That to me is more of a sound list management model

I don't do diplomatic, surely you should know that by now

Just a couple more facts for those suggesting Polson is one of the worst players in the AFL

Castagna played only 5 games in the 2 years after being drafted
Butler played no games in the 2 years after being drafted

I think it just confirms that late picks generally need more time

In a general sense I agree, but I would absolutely throw that out the window for Connor Rozee.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

And I agree but graham is 24 my thought is if we draft them at 18 unless they dont even perform well in the 2s they have till they are 23 to show something

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All in my opinion ...

Polson as poor as his performances are (low disposals, few goals, 50s given away and low tackle counts too), unfortunately is not our biggest problem, and is far from it. He is signed up for another 2 years ...

We will keep some of: Graham, Kerridge, O’Shea, Shaw, Mullett, Rowe, JGM, Lamb, Thomas, Lebois

Our older group is a year older and had far less impact than 2017 (noting we also lost Gibbs) with the one exception of Thomas who. was better than last year and rates ‘ok’, and Simpson was ok. But that’s Simpson, Murphy, Kreuzer, Ed, Rowe, ASOS (retired), Casboult, Thomas, Wright ...

Our midfield just does not bat deep. Cripps, kids, older average injured group and journeymen ...

Our ruck division is a prayer that Kreuzer is fit. Phillips struggles to string 3 games together and Lobbe is a solid back up. Rest are young forwards who are tall enough to ruck (TDK and McKay), and Casboult.

Injuries stuffed up our running power ... Williamson, Cuningham, Docherty, Kennedy, Pickett, Lang, Murphy, Marchbank, Plowman (liked what I saw from Dow and L’Ob).

So we would be cutting very deep if we are also moving on players who are 18-23 at the same time as fixing the above.

 

[PP34]

Those guys are B-graders who haven’t had the benefit in playing in grand final teams.

BJ will bring plenty

Know for a fact that Goddard wasn’t popular at all at Essendon. Wasn’t just typical on field bickering. Not accountable for his own on field errors, loved to blame others and his demonstrative ways pissed players off.

An old frustrated player angry about how the last stage of career not turning out like he thought it would is the last player I’d want at the club for leadership. Would have serious worries about his negative ways rubbing off on the youngsters. Goddard isn’t an old cool head like Hodge.

 

[PP34]

Nice melt

You tried to be clever by comparing Castagna and Polson and inferring they were at similar levels in their second years, haphazardly pointing to the stats without actually checking.

Then when they were brought out it showed a clear separation and almost double the output from Castagna, reiterating my point.

I don’t get the obsession on here some have with comparing players. It seriously achieves nothing. No two players are alike.

Castagna and Polson is an absurd comparison to be honest. Jason spent his TAC days and Richmond VFL days playing off half back and through the middle some. They then realised his skills weren’t up to it after a few AFL games so they played him up forward in 2017 and the rest is history. Castagna always found the ball in the VFL and can read the play.


I don’t really pay much attention to the Northern Blues but don’t think Polson has ever exactly been tearing it up? Honestly they’re not even remotely comparable.

I don’t get why suggesting a player like Polson won’t make it is so absurd in the eyes of a fair few. Seen a fair bit of him at AFL level now and all he does is chase players. Nothing about that screams give him time he’s gonna make it. He has no composure, he doesn’t read the play well at all and can’t find the footy. That doesn’t exactly scream give him 2-3 more years. You can find a heap of quick blokes that are quick and can apply pressure.

 

[Arr0w]

Every single small forward who played last weekend outperformed Polson in their second year. The best he can hope for is to become Alex Sexton.

Avg disposals/avg goals
Callum Ah Chee - 11.4, 0.9
Alex Sexton - 7.0, 0.8
Jed Lamb - 10.5, 0.8
Daniel Rioli - 10.8, 1.0
Robbie Gray - 13.4, 1.4
Stephen Motlop - 8.8, 0.5
Daniel Menzel - 12.8, 1.5
Michael Walters - 14.7, 1.3
Will Hayward - 11.8, 1.4
Tom Papley - 15.9, 1.6
Jack Lonie - 10.5, 1.0
Jack Sinclair - 12.6, 0.4
Jamie Cripps - 9.8, 0.8
Eddie Betts - 10.9, 1.0
Kayne Turner - 8.9, 0.6
Cam Polson - 6.9, 0.1

I originally had Breust, Puopolo, Ballantyne, Hannan but they were mature-age recruits so I took them out. Naturally their stats were also better. I also didn't include guys like Billings who are more flankers who rotate onto a wing than pure small forwards.

Polson actually reminds me of one of those small forwards that around in St Kilda's forwardline circa 2011-2014: Minchington, Templeton, Saad, Milera etc. Had a bit of flair and exuberance but just not the talent to really make a fist of it.

Godspeed Cam.

Interesting on a couple of levels. Firstly you seem to keep shifting the criteria as well as contradicting the said criteria. You don't want to include Simpson, from previous posts, due to different eras, yet you have included Betts? Not sure why you would include Menzel as a small forward, given he is 190 CMs. You have gone from first 2 years, then 11 games and different eras.

Stats can be simplistic, let's have a look at it more deeply, but with a strict criteria of the first 12 games (what Polson has played) and factoring average I50's for those years, as well as tackles

Average Disposals, Goals, Tackles

Polson 7.2, 0.1, 2.8
Betts 5.64, 0.9, 2.03
Cripps 6.1, 0.9, 1.9
Sexton 7.2, 0.3, 1.4
Lamb 8.1, 0.7, 1.7
Gray 10.1, 1.2, 1.2
Motlop 9.64, 0.6, 2
Simpson 4.29, 0.08, 1.07 (Given you want to use Betts, I will re-include Simpson, from the same era)

While all have Polson covered for goal average (excluding Simpson), he has all of them covered for tackles and some for disposals.

No, he is not the worst, first 12 game player, to have played AFL. And given the above names, there is scope for further development

Godspeed La Dispute

 

[Faz 2000]

I think it's fair to say Polson has been very underwhelming.

However, he's arguably been gifted games in a historically thin and un-talented list in a historically bad football team. It would be extraordinary if he was OVER performing against expectations given that.

He's contracted. Worth seeing what he can do as the team improves. Not the worst thing happening on our list, even if (statistically) he might be the "worst player".

 

[Blue Chip Pass]

Hey, Does anyone think Liam Jones is worth anything as trade bait?
I think he is surplus to our defence, when we get our injured troops back.

 

[La Dispute]

Interesting on a couple of levels. Firstly you seem to keep shifting the criteria as well as contradicting the said criteria. You don't want to include Simpson, from previous posts, due to different eras, yet you have included Betts? Not sure why you would include Menzel as a small forward, given he is 190 CMs. You have gone from first 2 years, then 11 games and different eras.

Stats can be simplistic, let's have a look at it more deeply, but with a strict criteria of the first 12 games (what Polson has played) and factoring average I50's for those years, as well as tackles

Average Disposals, Goals, Tackles

Polson 7.2, 0.1, 2.8
Betts 5.64, 0.9, 2.03
Cripps 6.1, 0.9, 1.9
Sexton 7.2, 0.3, 1.4
Lamb 8.1, 0.7, 1.7
Gray 10.1, 1.2, 1.2
Motlop 9.64, 0.6, 2
Simpson 4.29, 0.08, 1.07 (Given you want to use Betts, I will re-include Simpson, from the same era)

While all have Polson covered for goal average (excluding Simpson), he has all of them covered for tackles and some for disposals.

No, he is not the worst, first 12 game player, to have played AFL. And given the above names, there is scope for further development

Godspeed La Dispute

I’m looking purely at small forwards, so I’ve included anyone who plays that role, but fair enough take Betts out and that doesn’t alter anything.

Menzel has been included because he plays the role of a small forward. Again, take him out and the results don’t change.

That’s handy he’s leading the stats for tackles, but completely eclipsed by his abhorrent number of goals kicked. If not for an incredible bounce he’d be sitting on a paltry 0. That’s the main marker of a small forward and he’s nowhere near it. You can argue that naturally he should have less goals because he plays in a worse team but by the same token he should have more tackles because we have less of the ball and spend more time defending.

I agree stats can be deceptive. I can see him running out getting few touches, struggling with the pace of the game, fumbling and overrunning the ball which is primarily why I’m skeptical about him ever making it as a small forward. The stats are just the cherry on top.

The names ahead of him are actually irrelevant. They are used as a point of comparison, a yardstick for how off the pace he is. Players just don’t last if they continually prove to be ineffective, which has been in almost every single game he’s played this year. He wouldn’t be getting a game - and certainly not 11 games - in 17 other teams.

 

[Blues90]

I’m looking purely at small forwards, so I’ve included anyone who plays that role, but fair enough take Betts out and that doesn’t alter anything.

Menzel has been included because he plays the role of a small forward. Again, take him out and the parameters don’t change.

That’s handy he’s leading the stats for tackles, but completely eclipsed by his abhorrent number of goals kicked. If not for an incredibly bounce he’d be sitting on a paltry 0. That’s the main marker of a small forward and he’s nowhere near it. You can argue that naturally he should have less goals because he plays in a worse team but by the same token he should have more tackles because we have less of the ball and spend more time defending.

I agree stats can be deceptive. I can see him running out getting few touches, struggling with the pace of the game, fumbling and overrunning the ball which is primarily why I’m skeptical about him ever making it as a small forward. The stats are just the cherry on top.

The names ahead of him are actually irrelevant. They are used as a point of comparison, a yardstick for how off the pace he is. Players just don’t last if they continually prove to be ineffective, which has been in almost every single game he’s played thus year. He wouldn’t be getting a game - and certainly not 11 games - in 17 other teams.

Polson has never in his life played as a small forward he is an outside midfielder and the only time he played that position ha had 16 touches

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[Arr0w]

I’m looking purely at small forwards, so I’ve included anyone who plays that role, but fair enough take Betts out and that doesn’t alter anything.

Menzel has been included because he plays the role of a small forward. Again, take him out and the parameters don’t change.

That’s handy he’s leading the stats for tackles, but completely eclipsed by his abhorrent number of goals kicked. If not for an incredibly bounce he’d be sitting on a paltry 0. That’s the main marker of a small forward and he’s nowhere near it. You can argue that naturally he should have less goals because he plays in a worse team but by the same token he should have more tackles because we have less of the ball and spend more time defending.

I agree stats can be deceptive. I can see him running out getting few touches, struggling with the pace of the game, fumbling and overrunning the ball which is primarily why I’m skeptical about him ever making it as a small forward. The stats are just the cherry on top.

The names ahead of him are actually irrelevant. They are used as a point of comparison, a yardstick for how off the pace he is. Players just don’t last if they continually prove to be ineffective, which has been in almost every single game he’s played thus year. He wouldn’t be getting a game - and certainly not 11 games - in 17 other teams.

You are starting to backtrack now. Per forward 50 entry, he has exceeded the output of tackles of every one of those players, he has exceeded the output of disposals of Betts, Cripps and Simpson, while matching Sexton.

Within club land, goals have not been the main marker for a small forward or any other forward, for some time now, that is purely an individual result. Example, Hogan 47 goal, Curnow 34 goals, 38% greater goal output, yet the Demons have had 37% more forward 50 entries, with Charlie playing 1 less game. Who would you say has had the better season, goal output wise, on face value, rather than deeper analysis

The main markers, for quite some time, are team orientated, pressure acts, tackles, causing turnovers, positional zoning, 1%'s.

The kid has played 12 games for a bottom side that has the worst forward 50 entries this year, the worst average for the last 3 years.

You want to put a line through him, that's fine, all I say is consider the facts

Anyway, time to move on

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Harking on about a small forward struggling to kick goals in a team that doesn’t put the ball inside 50 often or well. Now that’s seriously wasting time. Iff when we have a working midfield the kids still not kicking goals, then you revisit this and ask questions. At the moment, for a 12 gamer, he seems to be applying good pressure and chasing hard defensively whilst having one good disposal and one bad in an inconsistent display by hand and foot. So what. He’s 12 games in...

 

[La Dispute]

You are starting to backtrack now. Per forward 50 entry, he has exceeded the output of tackles of every one of those players, he has exceeded the output of disposals of Betts, Cripps and Simpson, while matching Sexton.

Within club land, goals have not been the main marker for a small forward or any other forward, for some time now, that is purely an individual result. Example, Hogan 47 goal, Curnow 34 goals, 38% greater goal output, yet the Demons have had 37% more forward 50 entries, with Charlie playing 1 less game. Who would you say has had the better season, goal output wise, on face value, rather than deeper analysis

The main markers, for quite some time, are team orientated, pressure acts, tackles, causing turnovers, positional zoning, 1%'s.

The kid has played 12 games for a bottom side that has the worst forward 50 entries this year, the worst average for the last 3 years.

You want to put a line through him, that's fine, all I say is consider the facts

Anyway, time to move on

What a messy argument. Adding in Betts after I’ve taken him out, adding in Simpson who isn’t a small forward after we’ve defined the parameters for comparison - that is, other small forwards in their second years.

Agree, time to move on.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

What a messy argument. Adding in Betts after I’ve taken him out, adding in Simpson who isn’t a small forward after we’ve defined the parameters for comparison - that is, other small forwards in their second years.

Agree, time to move on.

Simmo started on the HFF pretty sure...

 

[Big Red is back]

Hey, Does anyone think Liam Jones is worth anything as trade bait?
I think he is surplus to our defence, when we get our injured troops back.

hes our best tall defender

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Know for a fact that Goddard wasn’t popular at all at Essendon. Wasn’t just typical on field bickering. Not accountable for his own on field errors, loved to blame others and his demonstrative ways pissed players off.

An old frustrated player angry about how the last stage of career not turning out like he thought it would is the last player I’d want at the club for leadership. Would have serious worries about his negative ways rubbing off on the youngsters. Goddard isn’t an old cool head like Hodge.

I'm normally pretty pragmatic in recruiting players but with Goddard my feeling is 'f%^K him".

Had all the talk of how big a Carlton supporter he was as a kid and I firmly believe he would have had the chance to join us when he left St.Kilda - but he chose Essendon anyway. I know footy's a business and he needs to look after himself etc etc so good luck him but he made his bed and he can lie in it !!

 

[Big Red is back]

Agree Polson is only playing because the cupboard is completely bare. Tough on him. Tracking like a Buckley or Armfield for mine.

Armfield and Buckely shouldn't be in same sentence.

 

[Blues90]

hes our best tall defender

No he's not

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[Aphrodite]

Goddard as a DFA too. Play him on a wing/half-forward line

Think we’d get decent value

1-year contract, play him on a forward flank and leverage his experience.

Hodge looked cooked but has had a decent year in Brisbane - no reason BJ can’t do the same with a change of scenery.

He will mellow

No he won't!

Very little quality experience. Murphy, Doch, Cripps, Thomas, Simpson, Kreuzer and then a significant drop

BJ would be a very good get

BJ is an upgrade on Matt Wright. Cuningham and Lang are average, there’s serious question marks on Pickett and we would really develop Fisher, SPS and Dow as mids.

Those guys are B-graders who haven’t had the benefit in playing in grand final teams.

BJ will bring plenty

 

[I AM CARLTON]

There seems to be plenty of movement around the Shiel station we must throw the kitchen sink at GWS to get him to us!!!

 

[Arr0w]

What a messy argument. Adding in Betts after I’ve taken him out, adding in Simpson who isn’t a small forward after we’ve defined the parameters for comparison - that is, other small forwards in their second years.

Agree, time to move on.

You were the one that added Betts originally, convenient to omit him once your numbers were dissected

Also pretty sure Simpson played as a forward early in his career

 

[Robertio]

No he won't!

Red Card deserved Aph, wanting Polson out and Goddard in FMD.

 

[La Dispute]

You were the one that added Betts originally, convenient to omit him once your numbers were dissected

Also pretty sure Simpson played as a forward early in his career

He was omitted at your request for consistency happy to oblige

Simmo has never played as a pure small forward. He played as a wing from the get go and spent some time on a flank too