List Mgmt. 2018 St Kilda Trade Thread Part 2

[One 2 Roo]

I think people are going to be sorely disappointed in Lycett judging by their descriptions of him on here like "gun" and "huge upgrade on hickey"

45 goals in 70 matches, playing mainly forward is ordinary, 10 goals from 20 games this year in a very good side is rubbish.

Hard to judge his overall ruck numbers as he's been second fiddle but:

Percentage of hitouts won is 46% - average, made worse by the fact he has been rucking against 2nd ruck/fwds and midfielders.

Hitouts to advantage - 24% is putrid - Hickey goes at 34%

Lycett, Hanners & Menzel all with major durability concerns would cost us 2 million per year, I'm not convinced we would be a significantly better side.

Sounds like a lot of money, but in reality probably isn't - provided we have been under the cap for the last few years. The Salary cap this year is set at $12.6M and the floor set at $11.97M, a $630k difference which then be carried forward for up to two years. Assuming we were in the same position last year, we effectively have an additional $1.2m cap spend for next year of which half has to be spent or it is lost.

Given there is a floor system in operation, and based on our current list, I would suggest that a number of contracts have been front loaded in recent years to allow us to at least meet the required floor, providing further flexibility.

So whilst yes, the amounts are overs - the actual cap impact may be minimal.

 

[Snailspace13]

Yuk, he's okay, maybe marginally better than hickey IMO... average forward, not really a #1 ruckmen though, would keep Marshall out of the side...

Would have preferred we went much harder for Fyfe or Rockliff last year, we have so much money we could have got both.

Nail - head.

There's not much use in setting an example if you can't inspire the players to follow it.

Roo set exacting standards to get the best out of himself but you only had to watch his response to say a poor delivery to know he wasn't a classic leader like Hodgey.

So before anyone bags me for taking potshots at Roo - think back through your working life/have a look at our political sphere for the last 20 years - how many great (even good) leaders have you seen - I'll guess not very many - like I said - leadership is a tough gig.

Hodgeys team (Hawthorn)didnt execucute poor Disposal for him to give the same response as Rooey

 

[kernelT]

Sounds like a lot of money, but in reality probably isn't

The figure is fine, provided it greatly improves us…

I'd personally prefer just Gaff with change over all of Lycett, Menzel & Hanneberry (considering a trade is involved)

 

[VDS66]

Personally I don’t think the saints should be making promises to anyone at present and I doubt they are.

Incoming staff may see things completely differently and there hasn’t been one player mentioned that’s a must have imo.

These guys also come at a cost if Hannebery, lycett and Menzel all came across on the figures being thrown around that’s a 2 million plus hit against our cap. With a hard cap nobody has money to burn.

If and it’s a big if I’ll grant you we’re in a bidding war next year I’d hate to have three plonkers cost us a jet.

We must sort out our off field situation first and then move on to the list imo.

Lycett plus Hanners = $1.5m Max.

Menzel just wants a two year deal. Probe around $300k.

That's $1.8m tops.

Lose one or both ruck and you offset probs $700k at best.

Plus we have quite a few that were front loaded over the past couple of years.

I think we'll be OK.

Every team needs a good ruck and clearance mid.

 

[gringo2011]

I bet Tiger fans were saying the same with Nankervis - he's at the right age to make a big step with increased opportunity.

If we could turn our two rucks into a single second rounder I'd be happy. That our PP and pick 4 means we stand a decent chance of drafting talent without doing anything drastic with our list that we might regret.

So is Longer though. I thought Hickey has been okay this year but need a more dominant ruck. I don't know if he's miles ahead of Hickey though.

 

[gringo2011]

The figure is fine, provided it greatly improves us…

I'd personally prefer just Gaff with change over all of Lycett, Menzel & Hanneberry (considering a trade is involved)

I think we all would but he's not interested.

 

[VDS66]

The figure is fine, provided it greatly improves us…

I'd personally prefer just Gaff with change over all of Lycett, Menzel & Hanneberry (considering a trade is involved)

What we prefer and what we can get are two different matters unfortunately.

Acres might be the wildcard in this if he wants out.

 

[borderbarry]

Probably happy to be guaranteed first ruck though. Will always be behind Nic Nat there.

He better get used to it. He will always be behind Pierce here.

 

[gringo2011]

What we prefer and what we can get are two different matters unfortunately.

Acres might be the wildcard in this if he wants out.

I reckon they'd be better to keep Acres than trade for Hanners. Hanners is shot, Acres was one of our best players before going down with a groin injury. Who ever gets him will get a fully developed player ready to explode for probably a second to third rounder. This will be like when the Hawks sold Josh Kennedy to Sydney. Hopefully Ratten loves him and demands they keep him.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Stanley 21

Toby Nankervis Pick 46

 

[Saintbloke]

It's hard to gauge body language of players, but last week, I thought Acres just cruised (a few team mates there), but looked a bit less engaged in contests. I really think he needs a good coach to get him up and going...as does the playing group!

 

[The Punter]

Trading someone out for Hannebury is inadvisable. Unless they are completely surplus to requirements, and in that case it is unlikely they would be used to make weight.

 

[saintmagic]

1. I think Hannebery can fulfill the role that Bernie Vince has for Melbourne. He comes from a great program with leadership qualities and i think will be able to set training standards. If we can get his body right he becomes a more versatile version of Armo/Dunstan. He has played wing and doesn't need to be in the centre all the time to be effective which is a bonus. If we can get him without giving up pick 4/5 then i would be ecstatic. If we have to give up pick 4/5 then would only do so if we were able to keep a top 8 pick as i think there is a group around that range that is fairly even - if our first round pick drops past this then i don't think it would be worth it.

2. Lycett seems like a good get. He has his weaknesses - doesn't get as many hitouts as i would like but is fairly versatile. He is still fairly young for a ruck so a 5 year deal doesn't seem crazy and hopefully he is able to improve as he won't have to share the ruck. $700k seems a bit much and maybe this is a bit exagerated (eg. the figure could include performance clauses that are unlikely). However, even if it is correct i don't think it is a disaster. I think we could frontload it with the space we have so that the last few years are a bit less than $500k which would be pretty reasonable.

3. Don't particularly care too much about Menzel. If we get him then it can't really hurt us as i don't think we will have a shortage of list spots. He has some upside so could turn out alright but is also a bit of a risk of not playing many games due to injury.

4. Getting three players from great programs (Sydney, Geelong and West Coast) sounds pretty good to me. That, combined with new coaches, can really refresh the group and help to lift standards and provide new ideas. They are also in the 25-27 age rang which complements our list pretty well.

5. I really hope we move on from Dunstan. If we were able to get a pick in the 30's back then i would be super happy. I know he is a leader and gives his all but personally i think he is too limited. He needs to play in the centre to be effective, however, he doesn't win enough contested ball/clearances and isn't good enough on the spread (mostly defensively). His disposal is also a bit of an issue. I think Steele is already better as an inside mid and Steele has a lot more room to grow (his body is perfect for the modern afl - great runner and 187cm). I also think it opens up space for Gresh/Clark/Acres to play more in the midfield which would be beneficial as the recent afl article on clearances showed that we are +5.7% with Gresh in the centre as upposed to a minus 4.6% team with Dunstan. Our other mids are more versatile (Seb can play across half back and Stuv can play forward) but Dunstan is just so limited and what he does do he isn't elite at. I hope he is the one we move on.

6. I think we will be better for this year. Obviously we have another high draft pick and should see some improvements across the footy department (especially coaching). But i think the players we have will also improve next year. There has been a lot of talk about our leaders and i think this year has been a bit of an eye opener. I remember in the preseason geary talking about how Roo and Montagna casted a big shadow and so there departures would see other guys lift and take more ownership. I think at the time they were excited about this but obviously everyone underestimated how hard it would be. This year should hopefully be an eye opener as to what is required and there should be growth in this area. I doubt geary is captain again but i think all our leaders will be better. Leadership is something you grow into and you can talk as much as you want about it but ultimately you learn it through opportunity and experience. A year older/wiser can only be beneficial.

7. If we are able to perform decently next year with all the changes then it can become a bit of a virtuous circle with a positive feedback loop. We play better, therefore become more attractive to players looking to move clubs so we therefore recruit better and therefore play better the following year. We saw this with North who look like they are a chance of landing Polec because after this year they look like they are on the up. If they were bottom 4 like us i doubt they would be in with a chance.

TLDR:

Keen on Hannebery, Lycett and Menzel.
Keep pick 4
Trade out Dunstan for a pick in the 30s/40s
Leadership will be better next year

 

[Mikka84]

The talk of not wanting Hannebery or Lycett or Menzel or anyone that would make us better is crazy.

Lycett is an immediate upgrade on our rucks. You have to pay overs to get anyone - especially while sitting in the bottom 4.

Hannebery will provide at very least, leadership. If he can get back to 75% of his 2016 form its a massive win for us.

Menzel is cheap a two year contract as reported is hardly taking a risk. We're not playing finals in the next couple of years.

If any of these players say yes to us, we get it done, simple.

We're not getting a priority pick. Not this year anyway. Cant buy into the media about that. The outcry of other clubs would be too much for the afl to handle. We just missed out on finals two years running and only just bottomed out this year.

 

[kernelT]

Lycett is an immediate upgrade on our rucks.

People keep saying this like it's fact…

In which areas do we immediately improve in?

Hickey has Lycett comfortably covered in hitouts to advantage for instance.

I don't think Lycett is anywhere near proven as a #1 ruckmen.

 

[The Punter]

Everyone talks about how Dunstan struggles on the spread - he really only struggles with defensive spread. He's one of the blokes along with Ross and Steven who can be relied upon to get outside from inside if we win the ball in a congested situation.

That's what makes Steele's progression in the second half of this year so pleasing - he's running both ways. Too many of our midfielders don't cover enough ground when our opponents have the ball.

Having said that I would jump at a late second rounder for Dunstan. He's just going to get pushed out and it does open up possibilities for others like Acres, Gresham, Long and Billings to spend more time in the middle.

 

[Ducky Tie]

People keep saying this like it's fact…

In which areas do we immediately improve in?

Hickey has Lycett comfortably covered in hitouts to advantage for instance.

I don't think Lycett is anywhere near proven as a #1 ruckmen.

It's only a small sample but his five games this year as number one ruck have been pretty impressive. 15 touches and 30 hit outs avg over them. 102 supercoach points if that has any value.

 

[VDS66]

The talk of not wanting Hannebery or Lycett or Menzel or anyone that would make us better is crazy.

Lycett is an immediate upgrade on our rucks. You have to pay overs to get anyone - especially while sitting in the bottom 4.

Hannebery will provide at very least, leadership. If he can get back to 75% of his 2016 form its a massive win for us.

Menzel is cheap a two year contract as reported is hardly taking a risk. We're not playing finals in the next couple of years.

If any of these players say yes to us, we get it done, simple.

We're not getting a priority pick. Not this year anyway. Cant buy into the media about that. The outcry of other clubs would be too much for the afl to handle. We just missed out on finals two years running and only just bottomed out this year.

Solid post.

We are going to spots to fill and anyone who makes us better is worth pursuing.

The alternative is to keep a few of the plodder we currently have or risk drafting 4th round speculators with a high bust factor.

We need to understand that these players are there to make us competitive, not propel us into contention.

At the very least we have to go down this path and continue to target elite players if and when they become available.

If we wait for the perfect trade or circumstances, we'll be still having this conversation in 3 years time.

 

[Premium]

Everyone talks about how Dunstan struggles on the spread - he really only struggles with defensive spread. He's one of the blokes along with Ross and Steven who can be relied upon to get outside from inside if we win the ball in a congested situation.

That's what makes Steele's progression in the second half of this year so pleasing - he's running both ways. Too many of our midfielders don't cover enough ground when our opponents have the ball.

Having said that I would jump at a late second rounder for Dunstan. He's just going to get pushed out and it does open up possibilities for others like Acres, Gresham, Long and Billings to spend more time in the middle.

Would love to know if Dunstan is suffering from a injury - shoulder etc , if that is a factor I would hold on to him , however we will have to leave that up to the powers at be to make that call - if he is move value for as a player or trade.

 

[VDS66]

Everyone talks about how Dunstan struggles on the spread - he really only struggles with defensive spread. He's one of the blokes along with Ross and Steven who can be relied upon to get outside from inside if we win the ball in a congested situation.

That's what makes Steele's progression in the second half of this year so pleasing - he's running both ways. Too many of our midfielders don't cover enough ground when our opponents have the ball.

Having said that I would jump at a late second rounder for Dunstan. He's just going to get pushed out and it does open up possibilities for others like Acres, Gresham, Long and Billings to spend more time in the middle.

If you don't have players who can run both ways then we are pretty much farting in a hurricane...

 

[The Punter]

Dunstan always seems to have something niggling going on.

In every one of his seasons he's played at least 16 games but no more than 19, and had at least 300 disposals but never more than 347 (this year, that number will rise if he plays again this season). He'll be 24 before next season starts. As a long term prospect he's preferable to Armitage but only one is in the side at the moment, being given an opportunity in a new position at 30 years old.

 

[kernelT]

If Lycett has a blinder against Gawn this week, I will get a bit more excited… he had a picnic last week when Ryder and Dixon were injured.

He was absolutely monstered in the ruck the week before against a 13 gamer - Darcy, who had 13 hitouts to advantage to Lycetts 3.

 

[Ducky Tie]

If Lycett has a blinder against Gawn this week, I will get a bit more excited… he had a picnic last week when Ryder and Dixon were injured.

He was absolutely monstered in the ruck the week before against a 13 gamer - Darcy, who had 13 hitouts to advantage to Lycetts 3.

That is a pretty damning stat. Lycett got in the coaches votes in that game though so he must have had influence.

 

[kernelT]

That is a pretty damning stat. Lycett got in the coaches votes in that game though so he must have had influence.

Yeah he snagged a couple of goals, got plenty of the footy…

 

[Mikka84]

People keep saying this like it's fact…

In which areas do we immediately improve in?

Hickey has Lycett comfortably covered in hitouts to advantage for instance.

I don't think Lycett is anywhere near proven as a #1 ruckmen.

That's where.

I'm not one for just statistics.. They can be used either way in every argument. But Lycett has always played second fiddle to NN. Agree that he hasn't showm so far to be the messiah - but he has the feel of a ruck nearing peak age to take hold of games.

Look at his past month since Nic Nat has been out. He has been one of the best afield in 2-3 of those games when given the chance. For his stats this year to compare nearly identical to Hickey's whilst only playing 40% ruck time is pretty good.