Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[sydney_gws]

If Josh Kelly wants to return to Melbourne, would Carlton do Josh Kelly and gws 2019 first for pick 1 and Carlton 2019 first round pick.it might help You land Dylan shiel as a free agent for 2020 as well.

 

[Mitchell54]

IIRC that's the first time I've seen those words thrown together in a sentence, big call Mitch.

He's still a great talent but definitely not that once in a generation player some are building him up to be.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

If Josh Kelly wants to return to Melbourne, would Carlton do Josh Kelly and gws 2019 first for pick 1 and Carlton 2019 first round pick.it might help You land Dylan shiel as a free agent for 2020 as well.

Scary thought.
We wont be trading stars this year anyway, unless there's really bad news at the end if the season, and I cant see it. Kelly signed for two years he ain't goin no where this year.

As for Shiel and Coniglio RFA next year. We'll be relying on them wanting to sign on, and most likely they will.
With our cap the notion we could match offers over our budget is laughable. I expect they are both most likely on around $800k.

 

[sydney_gws]

Scary thought.
We wont be trading stars this year anyway, unless there's really bad news at the end if the season, and I cant see it. Kelly signed for two years he ain't goin no where this year.

As for Shiel and Coniglio RFA next year. We'll be relying on them wanting to sign on, and most likely they will.
With our cap the notion we could match offers over our budget is laughable. I expect they are both most likely on around $800k.

Hopefully they both stay, at least say 10 years on average, or their entire careers. We do have to avoid a good player leaving and ony getting pick 16 or so, like hawthorn for buddy and possibly west coast for gaff.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Hopefully they both stay, at least say 10 years on average, or their entire careers. We do have to avoid a good player leaving and ony getting pick 16 or so, like hawthorn for buddy and possibly west coast for gaff.

I honestly dont think we can, the bean counters will be aware of the risk next year though. Maybe there's a cunning plan. You cant match unless you can deliver and the AFL watches these things.

 

[Arr0w]

Do you really believe you deserve a PP? Carlton had 9 top 10 drafted players playing for them on the weekend

I don't. Think the AFL should scrap the PP, but also amend FA rules and compensation

 

[Jell]

If Josh Kelly wants to return to Melbourne, would Carlton do Josh Kelly and gws 2019 first for pick 1 and Carlton 2019 first round pick.it might help You land Dylan shiel as a free agent for 2020 as well.

I wouldn't be keen on the exchange of 2019 firsts, but a straight swap of Kelly for pick 1 I would. Maybe a swap of 2019 seconds if a sweetener is needed.

 

[Shaz2012]

I don’t rate Lukosius much.

Max King is clearly the best tall forward in the draft imo.

It's now hard to place Max King because of his knee. Surely that knocks him out of the equation for pick 1. He may well be the most talented kid in the draft, but he is always going to be a massive risk to re-do an ACL. Still worth a very early draft pick, but not sure you take him ahead of Luko or Ben. I do think that Luko is the number 1 prospect. But I think that people are just getting ridiculously carried away with him. At the end of the day he is just another highly rated tall. These types of players are the most valuable. For that reason, Ben, Max and Blakey could easily go top 4 in this draft.

However, not only is it possible that these kids may not live up to expectations, it is highly likely that they wont. Just look at the draft history and the strike rate for highly rated talls to go on to be real superstars is very low. There is no reason to have an unrealistic expectation that any of these 4 wont just have solid, but not outstanding AFL careers. They are still worth the risk, especially if a club has a need in that area.

I always felt sorry for Jack Watts because he was always a good player. Judged harshly because he didn't live up to other peoples expectations. Still forged himself an AFL career that most kids could only dream of. I am sure that if a kid taken late in the draft that had the same career as Watts he would be celebrated, but Watts is not. If Luko plays 200 games but only ever sits around 10 in his clubs B&F, I think he should be proud of himself. That is my expectation of him and anything else would be a bonus. You pay pick 1 in the hope that you get the bonus, but that applies to any kid.

 

[Peel67skin]

I don’t rate Lukosius much.

Max King is clearly the best tall forward in the draft imo.

Nothing wrong with that , many don't rate Sam Mitchell in his draft Year .

 

[Jell]

I don’t rate Lukosius much.

Max King is clearly the best tall forward in the draft imo.

Max King reminds me more of the Schache/Boyd type talls who dominate at junior levels because of their sheer height advantage. Both Max and Ben are incredibly light for their size, it's going to take multiple pre-seasons getting them ready for AFL. Lukosius is a much safer bet. Sure, he may not turn out the reincarnation of Jesus like many of here are predicting, but his versatility to play forward and back, plus potentially in the middle means his chances of succeeding are far greater. Not saying the King boys won't work out, but they're more of a long term investment.

 

[Mitchell54]

It's now hard to place Max King because of his knee. Surely that knocks him out of the equation for pick 1. He may well be the most talented kid in the draft, but he is always going to be a massive risk to re-do an ACL. Still worth a very early draft pick, but not sure you take him ahead of Luko or Ben. I do think that Luko is the number 1 prospect. But I think that people are just getting ridiculously carried away with him. At the end of the day he is just another highly rated tall. These types of players are the most valuable. For that reason, Ben, Max and Blakey could easily go top 4 in this draft.

However, not only is it possible that these kids may not live up to expectations, it is highly likely that they wont. Just look at the draft history and the strike rate for highly rated talls to go on to be real superstars is very low. There is no reason to have an unrealistic expectation that any of these 4 wont just have solid, but not outstanding AFL careers. They are still worth the risk, especially if a club has a need in that area.

I always felt sorry for Jack Watts because he was always a good player. Judged harshly because he didn't live up to other peoples expectations. Still forged himself an AFL career that most kids could only dream of. I am sure that if a kid taken late in the draft that had the same career as Watts he would be celebrated, but Watts is not. If Luko plays 200 games but only ever sits around 10 in his clubs B&F, I think he should be proud of himself. That is my expectation of him and anything else would be a bonus. You pay pick 1 in the hope that you get the bonus, but that applies to any kid.

Tbh. I didn’t know he had done his acl

 

[kreglze]

It's now hard to place Max King because of his knee. Surely that knocks him out of the equation for pick 1. He may well be the most talented kid in the draft, but he is always going to be a massive risk to re-do an ACL. Still worth a very early draft pick, but not sure you take him ahead of Luko or Ben. I do think that Luko is the number 1 prospect. But I think that people are just getting ridiculously carried away with him. At the end of the day he is just another highly rated tall. These types of players are the most valuable. For that reason, Ben, Max and Blakey could easily go top 4 in this draft.

However, not only is it possible that these kids may not live up to expectations, it is highly likely that they wont. Just look at the draft history and the strike rate for highly rated talls to go on to be real superstars is very low. There is no reason to have an unrealistic expectation that any of these 4 wont just have solid, but not outstanding AFL careers. They are still worth the risk, especially if a club has a need in that area.

I always felt sorry for Jack Watts because he was always a good player. Judged harshly because he didn't live up to other peoples expectations. Still forged himself an AFL career that most kids could only dream of. I am sure that if a kid taken late in the draft that had the same career as Watts he would be celebrated, but Watts is not. If Luko plays 200 games but only ever sits around 10 in his clubs B&F, I think he should be proud of himself. That is my expectation of him and anything else would be a bonus. You pay pick 1 in the hope that you get the bonus, but that applies to any kid.

I have always felt this, if you can draft in any kid and he plays 200 games for your club, regardless of his output you have done well out of it.

 

[Shaz2012]

Tbh. I didn’t know he had done his acl

Yeah, poor kid. Still rated as going in the top 6. But with bolters still yet to bolt he could slip out and be a bargain. He might even get to you guys, you never know. Could get lucky.

 

[Roadto2018]

North Melbourne must feel like Tottenham supporters

We went into this trade period wanting Gareth Bale (like North wanted Josh Kelly/Dustin Martin), mid window we calmed our expectations for a Pulisic or Grealish (Jordan DeGoey) and are now left to go after the scraps (Darcy Moore).

Can't wait until we get Rondon as a deadline day signing for our first and only signing after selling Toby and Dembele

 

[HereComesJuddy]

If Josh Kelly wants to return to Melbourne, would Carlton do Josh Kelly and gws 2019 first for pick 1 and Carlton 2019 first round pick.it might help You land Dylan shiel as a free agent for 2020 as well.

Scary thought.
We wont be trading stars this year anyway, unless there's really bad news at the end if the season, and I cant see it. Kelly signed for two years he ain't goin no where this year.

As for Shiel and Coniglio RFA next year. We'll be relying on them wanting to sign on, and most likely they will.
With our cap the notion we could match offers over our budget is laughable. I expect they are both most likely on around $800k.

Talk around the traps has always been that Shiel wants to end his career at Carlton. For obvious reasons to the Blues, the FA period would be the smartest move for our future. It has even been mentioned by a guru on our board we won't be going after Shiel this year but next year the switch is on. Make of that what you will.

Have heard Josh Kelly's name mentioned many a time too. Mainly by hopefuls that at the end of next year we send our 2019 and 2020 1sts to gws for Kelly and some other picks back depending on how high carltons 2019 pick will be. Many other clubs supporter bases are probably saying the same thing re Kelly, especially the Kangas. But him going there id have to see it to believe it.

I cannot see either Shiel or Kelly running out the door this year.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Talk around the traps has always been that Shiel wants to end his career at Carlton. For obvious reasons to the Blues, the FA period would be the smartest move for our future. It has even been mentioned by a guru on our board we won't be going after Shiel this year but next year the switch is on. Make of that what you will.

Have heard Josh Kelly's name mentioned many a time too. Mainly by hopefuls that at the end of next year we send our 2019 and 2020 1sts to gws for Kelly and some other picks back depending on how high carltons 2019 pick will be. Many other clubs supporter bases are probably saying the same thing re Kelly, especially the Kangas. But him going there id have to see it to believe it.

I cannot see either Shiel or Kelly running out the door this year.

Not too fussed
It's usual for clubs to want star players, and there's nothing wrong with that.
We won't be trading contracted players this year, you're right about that. Next year is too far away right now, we've got this year and next year to negotiate with our list first before that's an issue.

 

[newblueo]

Not too fussed
It's usual for clubs to want star players, and there's nothing wrong with that.
We won't be trading contracted players this year, you're right about that. Next year is too far away right now, we've got this year and next year to negotiate with our list first before that's an issue.

to me it seems if you guys win a flag.(gws) Kelly an co are more likely to up an go. is that how gws fans see it?

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

to me it seems if you guys win a flag.(gws) Kelly an co are more likely to up an go. is that how gws fans see it?

History strongly suggests a flag binds a group together, so no.
There'll be no mass exodus, that jystisn't going to happen. Like every club, particularly with our age profile and players approaching free agency, there will be pressure to retain players.
Generally successful teams end up with players acce9ting less to be a part of the club. I expect that's already happened with a few like Kelly, but it'll be a struggle to keep them all.

 

[Scotty_222]

We needed midfielders, ones that accumulate. Not sure we need kp players

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Talk around the traps has always been that Shiel wants to end his career at Carlton. For obvious reasons to the Blues, the FA period would be the smartest move for our future. It has even been mentioned by a guru on our board we won't be going after Shiel this year but next year the switch is on. Make of that what you will.

Have heard Josh Kelly's name mentioned many a time too. Mainly by hopefuls that at the end of next year we send our 2019 and 2020 1sts to gws for Kelly and some other picks back depending on how high carltons 2019 pick will be. Many other clubs supporter bases are probably saying the same thing re Kelly, especially the Kangas. But him going there id have to see it to believe it.

I cannot see either Shiel or Kelly running out the door this year.

Thank you, i needed a laugh

 

[0utsider]

Thank you, i needed a laugh

It's not that unrealistic. If Shiel ever did decide to come home why wouldn't he go to the club he supported growing up. Especially when you look at the talent they have coming through. Carlton are clearly building a long term project and if they can hold onto Cripps, continue to improve their recruiting as they have been doing over the past few seasons and then add a cherry on top in Shiel they would be right back into finals contention.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Jarrad Harbrow to North, Declan Watson and Josh Williams to GC.

 

[saintscott]

Jarrad Harbrow to North, Declan Watson and Josh Williams to GC.

They have enough kids with talent let alone list cloggers. Why on earth would they do that trade when they are lacking experience?

 

[Snake_Baker]

They have enough kids with talent let alone list cloggers. Why on earth would they do that trade when they are lacking experience?

I figure they are going to clean out and start again.

 

[Mego Red]

I figure they are going to clean out and start again.

Fair enough, it is a hypothetical thread.

But Harbrow has been someone committed to staying the course at Gold Coast. I can't see them trading him away.