Prediction 2018 trade hypothetical thread

[PAFC_1870]

I agree, I think he’s worth early 3rd round currency (37).

6 games this season suggest lower.

 

[buttermuffs]

6 games this season suggest lower.

That’s true, but considering you want to get into the top five it probably balances out.

 

[PAFC_1870]

That’s true, but considering you want to get into the top five it probably balances out.

He has no relevance in getting to the top 5.

He's a last minute charity draft pick.

 

[philthy05]

Amon > saints

Saints 2019 3rd > Brisbane

Mayes > port

 

[Mitchell54]

Amon > saints

Saints 2019 3rd > Brisbane

Mayes > port

Can’t see the Saints agreeing to this.

2019 4th would be right for Amon but then Brisbane wouldn’t be happy.

 

[philthy05]

Can’t see the Saints agreeing to this.

2019 4th would be right for Amon but then Brisbane wouldn’t be happy.

Statistically Amon and Mayes are almost exact except Mayes was drafted higher and Amon is younger. At 25 where Mayes was drafted really isn’t relevant anymore.

So it’s hard to make an argument that Amon isn’t worth the same draft pick as Mayes is

 

[HeHateMe]

These deals are about the same in points (hawks future pick is calculated at the avg of a 5-8 finish)

Hawks: 2*First round picks
GWS: Shiel + 3rd

Carlton: pick 1 + 25
GWS: Shiel, pick 14 + 44.

Essendon: pick 9 + 32
GWS: Shiel

Saints: pick 4
GWS: Shiel

All deals value Shiel at pick 4.

 

[Mitchell54]

Statistically Amon and Mayes are almost exact except Mayes was drafted higher and Amon is younger. At 25 where Mayes was drafted really isn’t relevant anymore.

So it’s hard to make an argument that Amon isn’t worth the same draft pick as Mayes is

Maybe 2019 4th is Mayes worth and 5th rounder is Amon worth.

Mayes is 9 months older and has played 60 more games than Amon. I think he is worth more than Amon and I don’t think it’s a tough argument to say he’s worth more. By how much. I don’t know

 

[philthy05]

Maybe 2019 4th is Mayes worth and 5th rounder is Amon worth.

Mayes is 9 months older and has played 60 more games than Amon. I think he is worth more than Amon and I don’t think it’s a tough argument to say he’s worth more. By how much. I don’t know

When Mayes got to the club Brisbane were gifting games to anyone. They’ve been a struggling side and games played there isn’t really a great indicator at all.

The most relevant facts are he isn’t first 22, averages the same as Amon, but is contracted (as is Amon)

 

[cotter101]

When Mayes got to the club Brisbane were gifting games to anyone. They’ve been a struggling side and games played there isn’t really a great indicator at all.

The most relevant facts are he isn’t first 22, averages the same as Amon, but is contracted (as is Amon)

I’m not trying to argue his worth with you but Mayes isn’t all that cut and simple.


Mayes had a year full of personal problems where most would have struggled. He’s been battling. He’ll bounce back again. His 2017 was really good. A healthy Mayes both body wise and mentally is a best 22 player at the Lions.

 

[King Patty]

Carlton:IN: Shiel, Setterfield, McGovern Out: pick 1 + 25+26, Priorty access 2 x state league players (McAdam+Mumford)
GWS:IN: 1, 25,26, Mumford (priority access) Out: Shiel, Setterfield, pick 14
Adelaide: In: 14, McAdam(priority access) Out: McGovern

 

[King Patty]

Port: IN: Pick 15 + 2019 First round pick, 33 Out: Wingard, Amon, 81, 27
Hawthorn In: Wingard, Amon, Bennell, Scrimshaw, 27, 81 Out: 15, 2019 1st, 81, 33, 27
Fremantle: In: 81 Out: Bennell
Gold Coast In: 27, Out: Scrimshaw

 

[philthy05]

Port: IN: Pick 15 + 2019 First round pick, 33 Out: Wingard, Amon, 81, 27
Hawthorn In: Wingard, Amon, Bennell, Scrimshaw, 27, 81 Out: 15, 2019 1st, 81, 33, 27
Fremantle: In: 81 Out: Bennell
Gold Coast In: 27, Out: Scrimshaw

So for port that is basically 15 + a pick likely between 15-18 or worse after compo for Wingard?

Next year if he left as a free agent we get band 1 anyway. It’s not worth it to part with him a year early when we don’t know that he will leave

 

[King Patty]

EFC Out: 9, 30 Laverde In Bontempelli
Port: In 9 ,30 Out: Wingard
Dogs: IN: Wingard, Laverde Out: Bontempelli

 

[Joao]

EFC Out: 9, 30 Laverde In Bontempelli
Port: In 9 ,30 Out: Wingard
Dogs: IN: Wingard, Laverde Out: Bontempelli

This will go well.

 

[King Patty]

So for port that is basically 15 + a pick likely between 15-18 or worse after compo for Wingard?

Next year if he left as a free agent we get band 1 anyway. It’s not worth it to part with him a year early when we don’t know that he will leave

It all depends on where you expect Port to finish next year.

 

[philthy05]

It all depends on where you expect Port to finish next year.

Not really. It’s a bad deal anyway you look at it

If we finish low, we gave him up, did crap, and could have gotten a good pick for him in free agency if he did leave

If we finish high he is probably a good chance at staying and we had a good season. If he leaves we get a teens pick and missed out on one late high teens pick. That’s hardly something we should be worried about. He would be a rfa and we could threaten to match and force a trade anyway. Next year Ryder’s 700k-800k (depends on front or back loaded ?) is free from cap.

 

[Virgin Dog]

EFC Out: 9, 30 Laverde In Bontempelli
Port: In 9 ,30 Out: Wingard
Dogs: IN: Wingard, Laverde Out: Bontempelli

The others were pretty bad but this one is too obvious of a troll

 

[brutus76]

Eagles 9 and Colyer
Bombers 19 and 20

Eagles use 9 for Kelly.

 

[King Patty]

Shiel Trade Prediction
EFC Dylan Shiel
GWS Pick 9, 2019 2nd round pick, Hartley

 

[Falco]

No one at WC wants Colyer.

 

[Mitchell54]

My prediction on Shiel deal.

Essendon out: Pick 9 & 2019 1st
Essendon in: Shiel & 25

GWS out: Shiel & 25
GWS in: Pick 9 & 2019 1st

 

[DanA]

Are Freo looking to trade pick 5 for quality picks that get them more draft picks?

Seems like they could find a team to overpay and use it to build a core group of talent.

 

[Mitchell54]

Probably really out of whack trade but make of it what you will. Not a prediction but just for fun.

Gotta love a 7 way trade

Freo out: Neale, Pick 6 & 25
Freo in: Hogan, Lobb & Pick 13

Dees out: Hogan
Dees in: Pick 6 & 27

GWS out: Lobb & 25
GWS in: Sydney 2019 1st & Freo 2019 2nd

Sydney out: 13 & 2019 1st
Sydney in: Pick 7 & 23


Lions out: Pick 5, 23 & Mayes
Lions in: Neale

Similar trade to what’s being rumoured + Mayes

Port out: Wingard
Port in: Pick 5 & Mayes

Dogs out: Pick 7 & 27
Dogs in: Wingard

Dees get a good dip at the draft or they can trade pick 6 to GC for May (think May will be held to his contract at GC this year)

GWS get fair compensation for Lobb 13-18ish although in a supposed weak draft &

Freo get their 2 big targets for Neale and an early pick downgrade in which they could use for Ian Hill in which they need more of his type according to a couple Freo fans I’ve spoken to.

This allows Sydney to draft a player before a bid on Blakey in which they’ll use Pick 23 & 33 to match any bid following 7.

Brisbane get their desired player over which they’ll be happy to pay slight overs if any for a guy who is keen to go to Brisbane.

5 & Mayes compared to 7 & 27 values Mayes at about Pick 38 and Port would be desperate for that higher Pick so they won’t mind paying slight overs for Mayes to achieve that since they want to get their hands on at least one of those highly rated SA draftees and maybe have a choice between 2 of them.

Dogs get their man in which their very keen on for a fair price.

 

[philthy05]

Probably really out of whack trade but make of it what you will. Not a prediction but just for fun.

Freo out: Neale
Freo in: Pick 12, Sydney 2019 1st & 27

Sydney out: 13 & 2019 1st
Sydney in: Pick 7, 2019 2nd & 49

Lions out: Pick 5, 2019 2nd & Mayes
Lions in: Neale

Port out: Wingard & Pick 49
Port in: Pick 5, 46 & Mayes

Dogs out: Pick 7 & 27
Dogs in: Wingard

Totally against what Sydney need.

Horrible for port. It’s basically pick 5 for Wingard. The rest is fluff.