AFL 2019 - AFL Round 8

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

Hu$tler

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#76
Has cleared it comfortably in all his games this year apart from GWS (tagged by DeBoer) and last week against Brisbane (wet weather).

I wouldn't think he would get tagged and the weather looks good.

I like:
Merrett under 29.5 disposals (Hewett tag?)
Lloyd over 30.5 (as mentioned above)
Z.Jones over 25.5 @1.94 and 30+ @3.75 (getting a lot of midfield time. Before last week's stinker in the wet he had gone for 31, 24, 32 and 27 disposals)
Media saying Hewitt goes to Shiel.....Zac Jones is a great bet too thanks. Group 2 fantasy points Callum Sinclair too. Turning into a bit of a beast.
 

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mookieb

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#77
Seems to me that bookies are keeping some of the lines very close and there is value in some of the smallish favourites.

A few concerns on Ess - 5 day break and all their big forwards have gone down, but Syd has been underwhelming in 6 of 7 games (the other they beat Carl). Their midfield nearly always gets beaten now, their backline is missing McVeigh, Smith and Grundy and the forward line looks horribly weak. Syd lowest losing margin is 17 points so I expect enough goals from the midfield and small forwards to cover the spread.

All Coll wins against Carl have been 25 points or under in the last 5 games so you would expect they cover a line around 40. Might be dangerous though with Carl off a shocker and missing 3 key backs when against some very dangerous forwards like De Goey, WHE, Elliott etc. Coll have had some tough games so I expect that might get a bit of a lead and then cruise home.

Hard to get a read on WB but I think they kick on with momentum here. Bris are 5W 2L but they've failed big tests against Coll and Ess and come out and beaten the weaker teams. LY they were average on the road (2W 8L) so in a cold and wet Ballarat game it might come down to motivation and think WB prevail.

Both GC and Melb struggle to score so expect GC to cover the line narrowly. Interesting to see if Melb can maintain the momentum from last week. Fiorini is out so Martin probably gets tagged. Just can't see GC kicking enough goals to win.

Think WC bounces back to form and wins easily. Been average the last 4 games but they were 39 points up at HT vs GC. There's a massive discrepancy in talent between the teams and the matchups for StK look horrific. StK in good early form against weaker teams but have since failed tests against Ade and GWS and lost key players like Lonie, Steven and Geary (few players under a cloud).

Flipped from Port +3.5 to Ade with the injury news for Wines, Ebert and Jonas (+Gray). They'll also be playing 5 youngsters so they might struggle in the heat of a derby. Ade finding some form but still with a big injury list themselves (Jacobs, Seedsman, Douglas, Doedee, Milera and now Gibbs.

Geel are smashing everyone and until last week NM were getting flogged by everyone. Given that line seems low.

Apart from round 1 Hawks have been either average or below average in every game. GWS seems a horrible matchup for them. Too reliant on O'Meara who will get the de Boer blanket. GWS midfield likely to dominate clearances and contested possessions. I'm expecting a rare MCG game enough motivation for GWS to perform here (they've been terrible at the G). Bit wary of the Hawks being bagged in the media, but running with the superior squad in superior form.

Got Freo +6.5 last week. Too many injuries for Rich to cover at the moment. No Rioli, Riewoldt and Lynch likely to be blanketed by Hamling. Bit of a chance Freo could win this comfortably.
 

RooTed

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North Melbourne
#78
.5u Bulldogs TT u80.5 $2.00 BE
1u GC-Melb TGS u162.5 $1.88 BE
1u Saints line +11.5 $1.90 BE (taken early in week)
.5u Saints ML $2.55 BE (taken early in week)

Not much else I like ATM but will prob play 1-3 more on the day.

Leans are Dons line tonight, TGS overs on Syd-Dons, Blues-Pies, North-Cats and Hawks-GWS. TGS unders on Dogs-Bris (due to weather?).

GL
 

Butler

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#79
Media saying Hewitt goes to Shiel.....Zac Jones is a great bet too thanks. Group 2 fantasy points Callum Sinclair too. Turning into a bit of a beast.
Yeh that's the worry but Shiel has been terrible by foot and then last week he went to a handball happy game. Hardly damaging. Merrett is their link up man so my guess is him but Sydney are hard to predict at times with their roles.
 

chrisdon16

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#85
Apart from my boy Oorraazziioo, where are the goals coming from?
Could of said the same about the Dees when they played them earlier in the season, who have one of the league's worst offenses. Still scored a ton against them. Goals will come. Package might be dangerous tonight.
 

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Ohh Ok

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Adelaide
#88
3u Essendon SU, Lloyd 25+ $1.85 (lads)
2u Jones over 94.5 fantasy $2.25 (BE)
2u Fantasia, Hayward AGS $1.88 (SB)
0.5u Hayward 2+ goals $3.10 (SB)
0.5u Fantasia 2+ goals $2.37 (SB)

0.25u SB SGM $88
Essendon SU
Jones over 25.5
Lloyd over 30.5
Merrett over 29.5
Hayward 2+ goals
Fantasia 2+ goals

If you dont like Essendon SU I'd be hitting Lloyd 30+ $1.85 on lads/neds
 
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