AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
29,905
21,769
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
ROUND 21

LEADERBOARD

30 N Fyfe (Freo)
25 M Bontempelli (WB)
22 T Kelly (Geel), B Grundy (Coll)
21 L Neale (Bris), P Cripps (Carl)
20 P Dangerfield (Geel)
TJM's count is basically why I was on Fyfe - I remembered he had him well out in front a few rounds out so was surprised that his odds had drifted out so far by the end of the season/start of the count.
 

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Leeroy Brown 15

Team Captain
Aug 8, 2010
338
227
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
There’s Brownlow nights where the bookies clean us up and then there’s Brownlow nights where we clean them up. Think last night was one of the nights we got them, pretty much everything went expected minus a few small plays and Crippa slightly over polling. Bookies incredibly lucky Pendles polled 14 and umps missed worps a few times
 
Jul 25, 2018
23
31
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Got stung a little by G.Ablett Jr vs J.Lyons vs B.Houli trio. Halved ticket value.

Predicted:
  • Lyons to win ($2.50) with minimum votes of 10, maximum of 19 and likely 13. Actual 13.
  • Ablett to have minimum votes of 4, maximum of 13 and likely of 9. Actual 13.
  • Houli to have min votes of 3, maximum of 16 and likely of 9. Actual 11.
Perhaps what made this closer was leadership (Ablett) vs foot soldiers (Houli, Lyons), and/or class (Ablett) vs less-talented (Houli, Lyons).

Someone said earlier "follow the captains". This might be why perceived under-polls (Treloar, Taranto, Prestia, Worpel, M.Crouch, Walters, Sheed, Cunnington) and overpolls (Cripps, Zorko, Fyfe, Parker, Ziebell) occurred. Captains bark instructions at team mates so the umpires might pick up on this.

Only posting this here because no one in Brisbane wants to listen to my post-brownlow analysis. "Aerial Ping-Pong? Hmmpff!".
 

TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,015
908
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Okay...have gone right through my boards, checked off every game and this is the final wash-up from my round by round count (all published on here if anyone wants to double check)


Of all matches:
19 matches correctly predicted the 3-2-1 in correct order
An additional 30 had the 3-2-1 in differing order.

In total, my modelling correctly predicted the 3 votes in 116 matches. Some of these were at very healthy odds on the "Who gets the 3 votes market". Rory Sloane's BOG's against Sydney and Gold Coast were paying $4.50 and $5 respectively, for example.

The model, however, did overpoll James Worpel, Tim Taranto and Jake Lloyd - I will look over these to see what went wrong there.

The predictor correctly identified that Nat Fyfe would
a) Win outright
b) get the most 3 votes (this was paying $9 on the day of the count)
c) Would win nearly all Handicap markets (Where the top fancies were all handicapped - he was paying $10 at +2 on many books)

It did, however, slightly underpoll Tim Kelly and overpoll Marcus Bontempelli - I will assess both of these to see what analysis proved different. It also underpolled Patrick Cripps but not by much.

Overall, however, I noted some issues in 2018, worked over the summer on correcting these and seem to have ironed some of these out.

Really hope some in here tailed some of these, and really appreciate that so many took the time to post in here, the PM's etc - this is a thread I really enjoy each year and very glad that many emerged winners this year. We'll do it all again in 2020.

Cheers
TJM
 

burge13

All Australian
Jan 25, 2019
687
1,025
AFL Club
Adelaide
I think 'damage' is really starting to resonate with umpires. Raw possession numbers used to mean a bit more (I think?) whereas now a guy can easily get 3 votes with 25, a few inside 50's and a goal or 2, even in a loss. Worth considering next year?

I also think the big names get favoured now more than ever. Fyfe polled 2 or 3 in 4 losses didn't he? I can't remember that being the case previously though I'm sure there are examples. 3 votes almost always seemed to go to the winning team

TJM, appreciate the work. Wish I put more stock in your posts now though was on Fyfe (as well as Danger, Bont, Neale so small profit). Wouldn't be too harsh on getting a few players over/underpolled. I get striving for perfection but I wouldn't stress trying to 'correct' them too much. We'll never get in the umpires head & you were pretty spot on overall. Great work!

Lastly, need to do my count after each round (or game). Can't go back and look at stats 6 months later and expect to get good results

Look forward to next year
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
29,905
21,769
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
He was 5.50 into 1.50 to poll the 3 that game. I completely understand he wasn't as influential but when the whole crowd stands up to clap ur 50th touch, the umps notice and it's an easy out for them.
I was honestly scared the 2 in the Carl-Geel game was going to Cripps to sink me :)
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
29,905
21,769
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
I also think the big names get favoured now more than ever. Fyfe polled 2 or 3 in 4 losses didn't he? I can't remember that being the case previously though I'm sure there are examples. 3 votes almost always seemed to go to the winning team
Yup - he polled a 2 I think in that horrid game Against Adelaide when Freo only scored 34 points
 

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Benjo_

Debutant
Dec 9, 2018
89
168
AFL Club
West Coast
Hope everyone had a successful night. The pick your own vote multis were my main source of profit for the night. Hit my two bankers and then 1/2 prevailed that were high in odds. Will definitely keep an eye out for these when they come out next year! Also had $14, $41 and $51 3 vote options for their respective games who all polled 2 - what could've been! Cheers to all who contributed this year and looking forward to going again next year ;)
 

NYRB

All Australian
Oct 6, 2011
632
185
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
New England Patriots, Perth Glory
I think a lesson to be learnt from this Brownlow to me , is reputation is built through seasons and umpires will more likely to give votes to the seasoned campaigners who have gained votes before.

Worpel who is from what I heard was a 2nd year player was an example where unlikely to poll high. For 2020 , I expect guys like Grundy, Bontempelli To possibly improve again if they have seasons like this year.

If I were pricing 2020 season Brownlow would be something along the lines of:

Dangerfield, Fyfe $7
Neale, Cripps $8
Martin $10
Grundy, Tim Kelly $11
Bontempelli $13
Yeo, Treloar $15
Gawn $19
Zorko, MacRae $21
Coniglio $26
Merrett $27
Boak $30
Worpel $46
Gaff, Shuey $60
Whitfield $80
Pendlebury $85
Sheed $90
Luke Parker $95
Dunkley $100
Jeremy Cameron, Shiel $110
Ablett, O’Meara $120
Oliver, Tom Lynch $130
McDonald Tipungwuti $150
Sloane $180
Houli $220
Sam Walsh, Prestia $250
Jack Darling $270
Michael Walters $290

Apologies for not including St Kilda, Roos players as I don’t know their players that well.
 
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Tigers04

Rookie
Jul 10, 2012
38
5
AFL Club
Richmond
I think a lesson to be learnt from this Brownlow to me , is reputation is built through seasons and umpires will more likely to give votes to the seasoned campaigners who have gained votes before.

Worpel who is from what I heard was a 2nd year player was an example where unlikely to poll high. For 2020 , I expect guys like Grundy, Bontempelli To possibly improve again if they have seasons like this year.

If I were pricing 2020 season Brownlow would be something along the lines of:

Dangerfield, Fyfe $7
Neale, Cripps $8
Martin $10
Grundy, Tim Kelly $11
Bontempelli $13
Yeo, Treloar $15
Gawn $19
Zorko, MacRae $21
Coniglio $26
Merrett $27
Boak $30
Worpel $46
Gaff, Shuey $60
Whitfield $80
Pendlebury $85
Sheed $90
Luke Parker $95
Dunkley $100
Jeremy Cameron, Shiel $110
Ablett, O’Meara $120
Oliver, Tom Lynch $130
McDonald Tipungwuti $150
Sloane $180
Houli $220
Sam Walsh, Prestia $250
Jack Darling $270

Apologies for not including St Kilda, Roos players as I don’t know their players that well.
Tom Mitchell will be up there in top 3-5 also
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
29,905
21,769
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Also looking back - he won his medal from Sidebottom and Brayshaw - suggesting the truly elite STARS didn't have great years for whatever reason. I just wonder if he found the perfect year to win his medal and whether a similar style of game he plays will be rewarded to the same extent in the future.
 

IKnowtheDog

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2016
6,482
5,253
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Seattle Seahawks
Also looking back - he won his medal from Sidebottom and Brayshaw - suggesting the truly elite STARS didn't have great years for whatever reason. I just wonder if he found the perfect year to win his medal and whether a similar style of game he plays will be rewarded to the same extent in the future.
Worth noting last year only 3 players polled 20 votes or more. This year there were 9 who polled 20 or more
 

Geeves Train

Senior List
Mar 24, 2008
232
47
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Hi All, how did those who played the “who got the 3 votes” go? What was the roughest result anyone was successful with?

I had a good night, mainly because it seemed as if the fancies all polled very strongly and half of my bets were multis with players to get over 15, over 20, etc and it was a great year for this.

Wondering whether Brownlow is getting so much coverage that the “sure things” are good things, only basing that off 2019 but which is fraught with danger!!
 

Sausage Legs

Team Captain
Sep 17, 2014
524
440
AFL Club
West Coast
Hi All, how did those who played the “who got the 3 votes” go? What was the roughest result anyone was successful with?

I had a good night, mainly because it seemed as if the fancies all polled very strongly and half of my bets were multis with players to get over 15, over 20, etc and it was a great year for this.

Wondering whether Brownlow is getting so much coverage that the “sure things” are good things, only basing that off 2019 but which is fraught with danger!!
Placed 20 to poll the 3 votes.
The ones I snared.
Rd 3 D. Shiel at 7s.
Rd 3 Higgins at 5.50
Rd 5 Sloane at 12s.
Rd 7 Zuurhaar at 10s. He kicked 5
Rd 17 Sidey at 4.75
Rd 19 McKernan at 10s
Rd 23 Neale at 5.50

Was praying for danger round 6 at 200-1 but only got the 2.

Had 3 multis on the player over markets, got them all. 7.88, 13 bucks and 24 bucks.

Didn't get any team votes markets mainly cos of treloar/worpel.

Got quinella and trif. And loaded on any gold coast player 5 votes or more 3 bucks into 1.40. Missed a big bet of Seedsman to poll a vote.
Had Zorko Top 20 at 11s which was criminal also.
Good nite.
 

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