List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Thread

[SaintsSeptember]

Yeah, I probably agree. Not sure why the free agency period couldn't just go for the entire time up until the draft.

They have a three day period where teams get to decide whether to match and offer for restricted.

So they can make massive trade decisions in the last ten minutes of the period , but it takes them 3 days to decide if they can match an offer or not.

 

[Mindtraveller]

I spoke to Jackson the other day at cricket. He is no longer part of the NGA.

That's because we're going to draft him right?

Hopefully he and Milne kick on as overages. Would be great if he club gets them to sandy. Would be nice to get a free hit for something

 

[NextYearPlease]

StKilda are a dumb club.
As an Academy player they have had Biggy round at training. They might have known he was fast. They might have known he had a massive leap.
They might have known he was going into the State combine and said "Biggy...go...but just Cruise ... we know how good you are ".

Perhaps he was!

 

[gringo2011]

Knightmare has him going pick 20.

Draft Watcher - Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

Phantom Drafts: 2/10/2019 - First round phantom draft (pre trade period): AFL Draft first round phantom draft (pre trade period): https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27746624/afl-phantom-draft-goes-where-first-round 21/10/2019 - AFL phantom draft two rounds (post trade period)...

www.bigfooty.com

Has him at 20 in power ratings. More how he projects into the future.

Doesn't have him in his top 40.

Expanded AFL Phantom Draft: Risers, sliders and new names

With the free agency and trade periods over, attention now turns to the draft. Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft into the first two rounds.

www.espn.com.au

 

[mightymalaka]

Has him at 20 in power ratings. More how he projects into the future.

Doesn't have him in his top 40.

Expanded AFL Phantom Draft: Risers, sliders and new names

With the free agency and trade periods over, attention now turns to the draft. Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft into the first two rounds.

www.espn.com.au

These blokes have too much time on their hands me thinks!

Has him top 20 in his power ratings, wtf does that even mean?
But prob doesn't have him in the top 60 players picked!

Sometimes these experts really do over analyse these things!

 

[Kilroy]

Wouldn't be against giving a rookie spot to Jay Kennedy-Harris. A mate who's a Demons supporter (and an astute judge of footy smarts) is a big fan and had him in their best 22.

 

[Mikka84]

Has him at 20 in power ratings. More how he projects into the future.

Doesn't have him in his top 40.

Expanded AFL Phantom Draft: Risers, sliders and new names

With the free agency and trade periods over, attention now turns to the draft. Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft into the first two rounds.

www.espn.com.au

Tomato/Potato

 

[SaintsSeptember]

These blokes have too much time on their hands me thinks!

Has him top 20 in his power ratings, wtf does that even mean?
But prob doesn't have him in the top 60 players picked!

Sometimes these experts really do over analyse these things!

He should be working on whether Longer is a better ruck than Hickey and how we are going to play both Marshall and Ryder.

Knightmare has always had the separate power ratings.

For example , back in 2015 he listed 4 players who would be top five on a list. Hopper , Weitering , Oliver , Mills.
Then he listed some who would be top 10 on a list. Keays ( nope), Matthew Kennedy, and Schache.
He then listed 16 that he thought would be best 22 players ( including Gresham...oh..and Francis. )
24 to 40 were listed as "in with a chance of making the grade . Which included Bailey Rice .
then he listed the best of the rest , which featured Brandon White .

Beneath that he listed his phantom draft, which was the order he expected the players to get picked.

 

[bird_man]

Posted this in the trade thread, but should.have posted here

Glenelg - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

Not sure how far he'll fall, but I'll be surprised if he isn't taken in the main draft. Only 22 and coming off the SANFL best and fairest and a Premiership.

Averaged almost 30 touches, 5 clearances and a goal a game over the season.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The late picks make me kind of nervous.
Look at Robbie Young. When did we last de-list a draftee after only one season? Is the SAFL so far off the VFL that they couldn't tell what VFL observers seemed to realise right away? He wasn't a young kid aged 18, and we are going to guess what he'll be like in a few years. He was 24.

Why was he taken so far before Wilkie. Jonathan Marsh? Stack? Pickett?

 

[Mindtraveller]

The late picks make me kind of nervous.
Look at Robbie Young. When did we last de-list a draftee after only one season? Is the SAFL so far off the VFL that they couldn't tell what VFL observers seemed to realise right away? He wasn't a young kid aged 18, and we are going to guess what he'll be like in a few years. He was 24.

Why was he taken so far before Wilkie. Jonathan Marsh? Stack? Pickett?

That would be one to ask the recruiters what they saw, but from comments on here his output didn't change. Maybe a Richo pick?

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

The late picks make me kind of nervous.
Look at Robbie Young. When did we last de-list a draftee after only one season? Is the SAFL so far off the VFL that they couldn't tell what VFL observers seemed to realise right away? He wasn't a young kid aged 18, and we are going to guess what he'll be like in a few years. He was 24.

Why was he taken so far before Wilkie. Jonathan Marsh? Stack? Pickett?

Sadly we have quite a few more on our list not even up to VFL level. Our seconds are so far off the pace of other AFL aligned teams its not funny. But I am sure replacing an inexperienced and underperforming coach with an even less experienced and unknown coach will help ...

Young and Pierce are a start. But depending on which person you ask, there are at least another 2-6 not even up to VFL pace remaining on our list.

We have also continued the trend of delisting our best performed VFL player every year. White, Goddard & Lee gone in 3 of the last 4 years. Only one to survive banging down the door at Sandy has been Lonie.

Absolutely loving what we are doing with the Saints this offseason. Lower priority I know, but fingers crossed we sort out our VFL shambles at some stage too!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Sadly we have quite a few more on our list not even up to VFL level. Our seconds are so far off the pace of other AFL aligned teams its not funny. But I am sure replacing an inexperienced and underperforming coach with an even less experienced and unknown coach will help ...

Young and Pierce are a start. But depending on which person you ask, there are at least another 2-6 not even up to VFL pace remaining on our list.

We have also continued the trend of delisting our best performed VFL player every year. White, Goddard & Lee gone in 3 of the last 4 years. Only one to survive banging down the door at Sandy has been Lonie.

Absolutely loving what we are doing with the Saints this offseason. Lower priority I know, but fingers crossed we sort out our VFL shambles at some stage too!

I don't quite see it like that. Injuries at AFL level crippled the VFL side.
At one point last year Sandringham were hardly playing any listed players, and even the ones we de-listed were, White and Rice, played some good VFL games.
With Concussions we lost two ruckmen who would have been fine at VFL , leaving the likes of Joyce ( who does OK in defense and forward there ) in the ruck.
I think we were rounding up VFL players from Suburban clubs in the end.

White won best and fairest.
Players like Phillips and Paton were pretty good at that level, but we kept stealing them for AFL.

The Saints played 36 listed players in 2019.
Of those that didn't play Saints....
Cat B Alabakis is way off. Didn't even play VFL.
McCartin couldn't play.
Clavarino improved and got some good results.
King was good when he played.
Austin hardly played. Injured.
Bytel didn't play -Injured.
Mayo did some great work.
Roberton couldn't play.
Rice did some good work , but seemed a bit slow for AFL level.

So..let me know which ones are not up to VFL level.
Quite a few you said.

 

[hayes]

The late picks make me kind of nervous.
Look at Robbie Young. When did we last de-list a draftee after only one season? Is the SAFL so far off the VFL that they couldn't tell what VFL observers seemed to realise right away? He wasn't a young kid aged 18, and we are going to guess what he'll be like in a few years. He was 24.

Why was he taken so far before Wilkie. Jonathan Marsh? Stack? Pickett?

The recruiters banged on all year about needing speed and power in the forward line so he was purely a depth pick IMO. I don’t think we looked at his stats and the pick we were using and thought “this guys going to be a star”. Use if Long, Parker, Kent etc were either injured or out of form which is pretty much what he did.

 

[gringo2011]

Wouldn't be against giving a rookie spot to Jay Kennedy-Harris. A mate who's a Demons supporter (and an astute judge of footy smarts) is a big fan and had him in their best 22.

He looked good early on but hasn't come on. I wonder what the issue is?

 

[bird_man]

So the way I understand this, we can take sign Partington without using a draft pick in the supplementary period due to him being on am AFL list before?

ANALYSIS: How the new rookie rule will change football

Shane Mumford and Zac Clarke set to be the pioneers of a draft revolution, Marc McGowan reports

m.afl.com.au

 

[bird_man]

The late picks make me kind of nervous.
Look at Robbie Young. When did we last de-list a draftee after only one season? Is the SAFL so far off the VFL that they couldn't tell what VFL observers seemed to realise right away? He wasn't a young kid aged 18, and we are going to guess what he'll be like in a few years. He was 24.

Why was he taken so far before Wilkie. Jonathan Marsh? Stack? Pickett?

It doesn't make sense that the SANFL would be so far behind when we got Wilkie in the same draft.

I think we just got caught up looking for speed.

He didn't have the runs on the board even at SANFL level.

The SANFL is as strong as any comp.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

I don't quite see it like that. Injuries at AFL level crippled the VFL side.
At one point last year Sandringham were hardly playing any listed players, and even the ones we de-listed were, White and Rice, played some good VFL games.
With Concussions we lost two ruckmen who would have been fine at VFL , leaving the likes of Joyce ( who does OK in defense and forward there ) in the ruck.
I think we were rounding up VFL players from Suburban clubs in the end.

White won best and fairest.
Players like Phillips and Paton were pretty good at that level, but we kept stealing them for AFL.

The Saints played 36 listed players in 2019.
Of those that didn't play Saints....
Cat B Alabakis is way off. Didn't even play VFL.
McCartin couldn't play.
Clavarino improved and got some good results.
King was good when he played.
Austin hardly played. Injured.
Bytel didn't play -Injured.
Mayo did some great work.
Roberton couldn't play.
Rice did some good work , but seemed a bit slow for AFL level.

So..let me know which ones are not up to VFL level.
Quite a few you said.

Every team has injuries. You can substitute our list of McCartin, Austin, Robbo, Pierce and Bytel with just about every other AFL team. Explains some, but hardly a major cause of our consistently sub-standard performances. Nothing to see there.

This type of thing is also hard because it can be so subjective. What is not subjective is results. I cant remember the exact number, but we are something like 4 wins 20 losses against AFL aligned opposition across the last 2 years (give or take a game or 2). Sure we beat up on the non aligned sides to make our ladder result look passible each year, but the main point is we average 2-3 wins against AFL aligned sides over about the last 4 years. Take out the standalones and we are the bottom team almost every year. At what point are we going to stop blaming Sandringham and start looking in the mirror?

We did have decent top up players who were some of our best performers. But some of them quit mid year this year, the year before they were getting into punch-ups with coaching staff. A number were ex St.Kilda so we cant blame Sandy for that. If we look at the Saints players you listed (besides the injuries):

• Alabakis: had 1 effective kick for Frankston for the entire year. Lets face it, the only reason he is on the list is because he is tall. Just cut the cord there
• Clav: one decent game for the year (final game) where he made the bests. Otherwise was consistently a liability all year. On performance, should have played Dev league if it still existed. Not sure what people see in him.
• Rice: Played as a forward all year and outperformed every small forward on our list when they played VFL. Is a solid defender who never got a real go in 2019 because he was played in a role we was never suited for. Shame but we killed his career this year
• Mayo: Improved as the year went. Already passed a number of others. Absolute keeper

Of those you didn't mention:

• Phillips: Good for 1 or 2 good games at the end of the year each year. Otherwise contributes very little 90% of the time. Elite runner. Below average to average VFL player at best. Was not missed when he got picked for 4 AFL games (hardly stolen from Sandy). No idea where your comment about him being pretty good comes from. Aside from one good game out of the box every now and again (usually around contract / delisting time), he has not improved since he started with us
• Langlands: see Phillips, but a year or 2 younger and shown less at the same stage
• Rowe: One of Sandys best all year. Plugged a number of holes and worked his arse off. Solid VFL workhorse
• Young: On par with Long at VFL. That form saw him delisted while in contract
• Pierce: Have never seen him play a decent game at Sandy in 8 years. Yes he was injured and played nothing this year, but no idea why he was on our list to begin with. 7 years was enough to judge. IMO Holmes was always a much better prospect
• Marsh: Solid all year. Straddles that line between VFL and AFL. One of the few that actually earned AFL selection. Definite keep
• Joyce: Any VFL watcher could tell you his performances against GWS and GC were coming. Its a fun experiment, but realistically he is behind 100 other state league options. Marsh or Brown a much better use of a list spot
• White: discussed to death
• Long: my personal favourite was his 10 touch game (more than half of the game as a mid) which saw him picked in the AFL the next week. Guy had 5 AFL games of 6 or less touches, and has never kicked more than 2 goals in a game. Yet his average AFL output is consistently much better than his VFL form (which should never have got him picked in the first place). Still living off his 5 goal second half of a VFL final where the game was already decided at half time
• Hind: Earned his shot. Kicking worried me on the backline but at least he pulled his weight at VFL level
• McKenzie: Wasn't close to the best 25 on the ground at any Sandy game I saw. Absolute howler of a list management decision
• Paton: Quiet achiever. Earned his shot and IMO took it. Real keeper
• Armo: Everyone knew he was cooked. Tried his guts out all year, but 1 year too many
• Coff: once they stopped throwing him all around forward, mid and back every week, and settled him in one spot on the HBF, he looked solid (if nervy at times and overall quite unspectacular). At least he improved unlike plenty of others
• Clark: was pretty clear to anyone watching that he was waaay too good for VFL
• Parker: was clearly gassed by the time he got to Sandy at the end of the year, and could not get near it. Cant judge on VFL as he might as well have not turned up

Every year people make the same excuses and blame Sandy. For me the problem lies AT LEAST equally with the St.Kilda players. Can argue one or 2 either way, but of the 12-17 that played more than a couple of VFL games that I saw:
Standouts: Clark & White
Above average consistently: Paton & Marsh
Average but showing real improvement: Hind, Mayo & Coff
Average consistently: Longer, Rice, Phillips, Joyce, & Rowe
Below average consistently: McKenzie, Long, Young, Clav, Langlands, Armo, Pierce*

Have likely missed a few. But for me, I saw maybe 7 or 8 Saints Sandy players as viable AFL options. That leaves more than 10 consistently average or below average VFL performers on our list (that aren't first year draftees). More than 3 or 4 is clearly a massive problem, and explains our horrible results (combined with no discernible gameplan, limited leadership and a roughly normal amount of injuries across the list). About half of these players are gone now. But make no mistake, there is still a lot of deadwood on our list to cut yet!

Honestly I really don't expect much improvement at Sandy at all this year. We consistently show we are miles off other AFL aligned teams at VFL level, and I see no reason this will change in 2020 (outside of a dream injury run). The reason the top up players become so important to Sandy, is that the bottom 10 or so of our AFL listed players are so bad.

Would have the Sandy 2020 line at 2.5 wins against AFL aligned opposition. Would happily load up on the under 3 wins too.

Mods: feel free to move this to the Sandy thread. This is just an expansion of most of what has been kicked around in there all year. Plus I am sure this post will upset a few that say player x, y or z will be an absolute star based on some intangible quality etc

 

[Jade Buddha]

Tomato/Potato

Let’s call the whole thing off

 

[Jade Buddha]

So Biggy Smalls, sounds gangsta

 

[maanco]

The recruiters banged on all year about needing speed and power in the forward line so he was purely a depth pick IMO. I don’t think we looked at his stats and the pick we were using and thought “this guys going to be a star”. Use if Long, Parker, Kent etc were either injured or out of form which is pretty much what he did.

Why trade up for him then?

 

[stfan]

Knightmare has him going pick 20.

Draft Watcher - Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

Phantom Drafts: 2/10/2019 - First round phantom draft (pre trade period): AFL Draft first round phantom draft (pre trade period): https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27746624/afl-phantom-draft-goes-where-first-round 21/10/2019 - AFL phantom draft two rounds (post trade period)...

www.bigfooty.com

No you are mixing up his Power Ratings his Phantom Draft.

The Power Rating was done on 2 Oct.
His latest Phantom Draft Order was done on 21 October and goes to Pick 40 and Biggy is not in the 40 that it goes to.

Expanded AFL Phantom Draft: Risers, sliders and new names

With the free agency and trade periods over, attention now turns to the draft. Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft into the first two rounds.

www.espn.com.au

 

[stfan]

The late picks make me kind of nervous.
Look at Robbie Young. When did we last de-list a draftee after only one season?

It actually makes me excited. We have been dithering too long with too many players in the past in the past and so good to see some quicker decision making.

We took a batch of late, rookie, supp and mid-season draft picks last season. Such picks are always going to be less likely to make it.

We have found some gold in Wilkie, and may be in some others. We have cut Young the least promising of the lot and this means we can look for more players that will make it.

We need to keep churning. This is how you discover the Marshall's and Wilkie's of the world.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The recruiters banged on all year about needing speed and power in the forward line so he was purely a depth pick IMO. I don’t think we looked at his stats and the pick we were using and thought “this guys going to be a star”. Use if Long, Parker, Kent etc were either injured or out of form which is pretty much what he did.

THen he should have been a Rookie at best.
He seems to be they type of player where the coach has said, "go get me someone like Brad Hill " and they've gone...
Indigenous...check....fast ...check....plays footy good....oh well cant have everything.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It actually makes me excited. We have been dithering too long with too many players in the past in the past and so good to see some quicker decision making.

We took a batch of late, rookie, supp and mid-season draft picks last season. Such picks are always going to be less likely to make it.

We have found some gold in Wilkie, and may be in some others. We have cut Young the least promising of the lot and this means we can look for more players that will make it.

We need to keep churning. This is how you discover the Marshall's and Wilkie's of the world.

My point was , that to most VFL observers who post here, it was clear he wasn't up to it.
How was it that recruiters who saw him in SAFL , where he played similarly, thought he was.
I can absolutely see why its hard to pick an 18yo, not knowing what he'll be like in 4 years, but Young wasn't young. He was 24, he had to be good already.