Resource 2019 Draft Watch (we have picks 6 24 25 39 46)

[hey shorty]

No hes not.

Or is he in the indigenous academy ??

 

[Cleric]

Or is he in the indigenous academy ??

If anything it will be the same as Milera.

 

[hey shorty]

If anything it will be the same as Milera.

I rate the kid, however size will be an issue.

Would have a go with a late pick if available and I reckon we might.

 

[Elite Crow]

This is what Haggis suggested too.

I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with pick 5 after a PP and Carlton overtaking Sydney, then we downgrade to the giants 2 firsts

Which will end up no better than last years 19 and our original pick this year in a weaker draft. So there can be no doubt Carlton have come out ahead as they’ve gained the extra pick

 

[hey shorty]

Which will end up no better than last years 19 and our original pick this year in a weaker draft. So there can be no doubt Carlton have come out ahead as they’ve gained the extra pick

Not really.

A top 5 pick in any draft is better than what we would have have had. Plus it COULD allow us to trade up, given pick 5 is better than the 10 or 11 we would have had.

 

[jackster83]

This is what Haggis suggested too.

I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with pick 5 after a PP and Carlton overtaking Sydney, then we downgrade to the giants 2 firsts

I think we'll keep the Carlton pick and wait and see if anyone slides (noting we have two second rounders and will likely have several other mid-late picks depending on who we trade out).

Teams will also be sniffing around our 2020 first rounder, as all signs point to us being a bottom four contender next year.

 

[Elite Crow]

Not really.

A top 5 pick in any draft is better than what we would have have had. Plus it COULD allow us to trade up, given pick 5 is better than the 10 or 11 we would have had.

The suggestion was we turn pick 5 into 2 GWS picks, currently 12 & 13 and we’ve given up currently 10 & last years 19, we are behind as this is a weaker draft.

It gets worse if we use it to trade up. It would have cost us this year’s first, currently pick 10, last years 19 and what ever else we have to give up. If we are prepared to do that we should have traded our 3 firsts last year to get in the top 5 last year.

 

[Mutineer]

The suggestion was we turn pick 5 into 2 GWS picks, currently 12 & 13 and we’ve given up currently 10 & last years 19, we are behind as this is a weaker draft.

It gets worse if we use it to trade up. It would have cost us this year’s first, currently pick 10, last years 19 and what ever else we have to give up. If we are prepared to do that we should have traded our 3 firsts last year to get in the top 5 last year.

This is not a weak draft....certainly there's not the super SA talent at the top end this year and the tall talent like Jack Lukosius, the King twins and Nick Blakey isn't there but there are going to be plenty of really good prospects available deep into the 2nd round IMO. I just hope we keep a pick or procure one for Charlie Comben somewhere along the line.

 

[MRB37]

LISTEN: What will the Crows do with their top-five pick?

Adelaide recruiting manager Hamish Ogilvie joins the team for this week's Road to the Draft podcast

www.afl.com.au

Hamish Ogilvie on the Road to the Draft podcast

Quick rundown for those who might not want to listen

Asked if he watches Crows games live - Attends approx 8-10 games live a year, they ensure at least one of him or Justin Reid attend every game live to help understand feedback from coaches.

2019 Draft analysis - Considers it even, a bit of separation at the top. Thinks clubs will have differing opinions on players in the middle.
Surprised by Vic Metro who he thought had a disappointing result. Thought it was a big jump for some from school footy to U18.

School footy vs Championship form - Says he's been hard on school footy in the past, but has watched more school footy this year and thinks it's been of a higher standard than previous years. Thinks school footy and NAB league should think about combining.

Father-son/Academies - Jokes about how he'll win a a bid on an Academy player one day. Asked if he thinks they bid because they want a guy, or just to make a team pay more. Says they only bid when they want a guy. Loves Tarryn Thomas.

Mid-season draft - Says mid-year draft will drain the draft pool a bit and won't be as many state leaguers taken in the next draft.

Carlton trade - Says it's a bit of a drain since it always talked about. Thinks it'll be a good deal for both teams though they'd of hoped the Crows would have won a few more games. Deal was negotiated a few days prior to the draft, says talks between Reid and SOS were very amicable. Mentioned the deal may not have happened if Duursma was still available.

Pick 3 (currently) - Said you just want to pick the best player there, said they're open for anything, Reid is currently out to all the clubs listening to offers. Said its the highest pick they've had, which is why they've watched a bit more school footy this year than others.

GC Priorty Pick - Mentions if you finish bottom you get pick 1, which is a really good pick (basically hinting he thinks them getting a PP is BS). Says AFL is trying to encourage future draft pick trading, but then priority picks can push it back, will make teams less interesting in trading for future picks and creates a false economy.

DVI - Generally have their own metrics on pick worth that is developed by Binuk Kodiuwakku

Luke Edwards - Said he played very well in the Nationals. Has been at the club doing the Father-Son/NGA programs, said it's hard because they get criticised no matter what you with Father/Son picks if they don't work out.

Chayce Jones/Ned McHenry - Hoping to get a few more games into Chayce before the end of the year. Said SANFL form is a bit up/down, played a different role as a forward, but he dominated in Tasmania. Said was impressed by his movement, toughness, watched a game he was being tagged and just kept working through it all game. Have a saying at the club "it must be tiring being Ned". Said clubs needs a guy like Ned around, injured his back in a tackling drill, was close to playing AFL prior.

Darcy Fogarty - Said he gets a bit bored in state league footy and wants to play on the big stage, but worked very hard on fitness and with development coaches through the year.

Will Hamill/Lachie Scholl - Happy with both, has been happy with some of the defensive jobs Hamill has done on quicker players at SANFL level. Both run so well, match it with AFL players at the club. Scholl needs to work on his body a bit before he plays. Mentions Butts has exceeded where they thought he'd be at this stage, said Butts has carried the backline once Otten went in to the AFL side.

Missed picks - Mitch Lewis from Hawthorn, Dan Houston and James Worpel, said they picked Andrew McPherson ahead of Worpel, if they had another pick Worpel was next on the list. Said how with live trading they can now avoid the situation of wanting a guy, but not having any picks to grab them.

Picks he's made - Mentions Reilly O'Brien exceeding expectations, thought Andy Otten and Tom Lynch would be midfielders. Luke Brown is underrated in the AFL.

Over 30's - Said it's an exciting/interesting time for the club with how the list will change over the next two years due to how many over 30's are likely to retire/leave in that time.

Wants - Mentioned tall mids and outside speed as wants.

 

[ams4crows]

Why 1 & 3 to GC?

Young not the sort of player we need? We don't have any player like him.

Also I'm still for Kemp, but not sure how bad the injury is.

Kemp did his ACL

 

[Thetrader15]

LISTEN: What will the Crows do with their top-five pick?

Adelaide recruiting manager Hamish Ogilvie joins the team for this week's Road to the Draft podcast

www.afl.com.au

Hamish Ogilvie on the Road to the Draft podcast

Quick rundown for those who might not want to listen

Asked if he watches Crows games live - Attends approx 8-10 games live a year, they ensure at least one of him or Justin Reid attend every game live to help understand feedback from coaches.

2019 Draft analysis - Considers it even, a bit of separation at the top. Thinks clubs will have differing opinions on players in the middle.
Surprised by Vic Metro who he thought had a disappointing result. Thought it was a big jump for some from school footy to U18.

School footy vs Championship form - Says he's been hard on school footy in the past, but has watched more school footy this year and thinks it's been of a higher standard than previous years. Thinks school footy and NAB league should think about combining.

Father-son/Academies - Jokes about how he'll win a a bid on an Academy player one day. Asked if he thinks they bid because they want a guy, or just to make a team pay more. Says they only bid when they want a guy. Loves Tarryn Thomas.

Mid-season draft - Says mid-year draft will drain the draft pool a bit and won't be as many state leaguers taken in the next draft.

Carlton trade - Says it's a bit of a drain since it always talked about. Thinks it'll be a good deal for both teams though they'd of hoped the Crows would have won a few more games. Deal was negotiated a few days prior to the draft, says talks between Reid and SOS were very amicable. Mentioned the deal may not have happened if Duursma was still available.

Pick 3 (currently) - Said you just want to pick the best player there, said they're open for anything, Reid is currently out to all the clubs listening to offers. Said its the highest pick they've had, which is why they've watched a bit more school footy this year than others.

GC Priorty Pick - Mentions if you finish bottom you get pick 1, which is a really good pick (basically hinting he thinks them getting a PP is BS). Says AFL is trying to encourage future draft pick trading, but then priority picks can push it back, will make teams less interesting in trading for future picks and creates a false economy.

DVI - Generally have their own metrics on pick worth that is developed by Binuk Kodiuwakku

Luke Edwards - Said he played very well in the Nationals. Has been at the club doing the Father-Son/NGA programs, said it's hard because they get criticised no matter what you with Father/Son picks if they don't work out.

Chayce Jones/Ned McHenry - Hoping to get a few more games into Chayce before the end of the year. Said SANFL form is a bit up/down, played a different role as a forward, but he dominated in Tasmania. Said was impressed by his movement, toughness, watched a game he was being tagged and just kept working through it all game. Have a saying at the club "it must be tiring being Ned". Said clubs needs a guy like Ned around, injured his back in a tackling drill, was close to playing AFL prior.

Darcy Fogarty - Said he gets a bit bored in state league footy and wants to play on the big stage, but worked very hard on fitness and with development coaches through the year.

Will Hamill/Lachie Scholl - Happy with both, has been happy with some of the defensive jobs Hamill has done on quicker players at SANFL level. Both run so well, match it with AFL players at the club. Scholl needs to work on his body a bit before he plays. Mentions Butts has exceeded where they thought he'd be at this stage, said Butts has carried the backline once Otten went in to the AFL side.

Missed picks - Mitch Lewis from Hawthorn, Dan Houston and James Worpel, said they picked Andrew McPherson ahead of Worpel, if they had another pick Worpel was next on the list. Said how with live trading they can now avoid the situation of wanting a guy, but not having any picks to grab them.

Picks he's made - Mentions Reilly O'Brien exceeding expectations, thought Andy Otten and Tom Lynch would be midfielders. Luke Brown is underrated in the AFL.

Over 30's - Said it's an exciting/interesting time for the club with how the list will change over the next two years due to how many over 30's are likely to retire/leave in that time.

Wants - Mentioned tall mids and outside speed as wants.

Nice summary, but a 'quick' rundown?

 

[Deaneus!]

The above table is unashamedly stolen from draft genius extraordinaire Lore from the drafting board and can be found in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...n-current-ladder.1206928/page-6#post-61842744

Okay, so the AFL are the ones who wanted clubs to be able to trade future draft picks, to make the whole shebang more exciting. Clubs are grumbling about PP in the top of the draft, because it throws out the pointy end. Ergo, if there's a PP it will be at the end of the first round or whatever. It won't be at the top.

Melbourne are probably in full-on tanking mode - I saw here somewhere that they've only made the finals 12 times in the last 45 years, we've made the finals 12 times since 2001. So, unless they magically start to feel badly about throwing Dean Bailey under the bus - and they don't, that's why they're campaigners - they won't win any games.

So, we're likely to get #3.PNG

I've seen some calls for #3 + Jenkins = #2. Maybe, but i don't like it. I think he's worth more than that. First, let's look at clubs who needs a key forward.

AFL Goalkickers for Season 2024

AFL Goalkickers Total Statistics for Season 2024.

www.footywire.com

Hawthorn, though they're rumoured to be getting Jon Patton in
Bulldogs, would be great for Naughton to have someone taking a defender
Essendon, they've got nobody
Port Adelaide (not kidding), Dixon is a bust
Melbourne, they've got nobody and Oscar McD is a bust
Gold Coast, someone to fill in while the kids grow up

So there's probably a good market for him, we can do better than a one pick upgrade. Hogan + #65 went to Freo for #6 and #23. Yes, Hogan's a lot younger, but their outputs and careers are remarkably similar (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=2&type=A&pid1=3916&pid2=3547&fid1=C&fid2=C). I would confidently predict a pick in the teens for him, although I'm sure it will be mixed with picks going back and forth. Say, Jenkins + 21 for #9, Essendon might sneak a look with their future first rounder (I wonder if I would consider Jenkins for #30 & #31), Gold Coast with #17, Melbourne with #20 maybe.

So, we should hope to take #3, #16-ish, #21 into the draft. We (the board, at least) have a few players we think might be told that greener pastures can be found elsewhere. That should fill out our drafting in the 20s, 30s and 40s, because it's a long wait between 28 and 100.

Reading that Francis and Fantasia might be coming to Adelaide is interesting. I'd think then it would be something like Jenkins + #21 for the pair.

Will be a very interesting off-season for us.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

I would froth at Jenkins & 3 for 2.

 

[Thetrader15]

View attachment 726058

The above table is unashamedly stolen from draft genius extraordinaire Lore from the drafting board and can be found in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...n-current-ladder.1206928/page-6#post-61842744

Okay, so the AFL are the ones who wanted clubs to be able to trade future draft picks, to make the whole shebang more exciting. Clubs are grumbling about PP in the top of the draft, because it throws out the pointy end. Ergo, if there's a PP it will be at the end of the first round or whatever. It won't be at the top.

Melbourne are probably in full-on tanking mode - I saw here somewhere that they've only made the finals 12 times in the last 45 years, we've made the finals 12 times since 2001. So, unless they magically start to feel badly about throwing Dean Bailey under the bus - and they don't, that's why they're campaigners - they won't win any games.

So, we're likely to get #3.PNG

I've seen some calls for #3 + Jenkins = #2. Maybe, but i don't like it. I think he's worth more than that. First, let's look at clubs who needs a key forward.

AFL Goalkickers for Season 2024

AFL Goalkickers Total Statistics for Season 2024.

www.footywire.com

Hawthorn, though they're rumoured to be getting Jon Patton in
Bulldogs, would be great for Naughton to have someone taking a defender
Essendon, they've got nobody
Port Adelaide (not kidding), Dixon is a bust
Melbourne, they've got nobody and Oscar McD is a bust
Gold Coast, someone to fill in while the kids grow up

So there's probably a good market for him, we can do better than a one pick upgrade. Hogan + #65 went to Freo for #6 and #23. Yes, Hogan's a lot younger, but their outputs and careers are remarkably similar (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=2&type=A&pid1=3916&pid2=3547&fid1=C&fid2=C). I would confidently predict a pick in the teens for him, although I'm sure it will be mixed with picks going back and forth. Say, Jenkins + 21 for #9, Essendon might sneak a look with their future first rounder (I wonder if I would consider Jenkins for #30 & #31), Gold Coast with #17, Melbourne with #20 maybe.

So, we should hope to take #3, #16-ish, #21 into the draft. We (the board, at least) have a few players we think might be told that greener pastures can be found elsewhere. That should fill out our drafting in the 20s, 30s and 40s, because it's a long wait between 28 and 100.

Reading that Francis and Fantasia might be coming to Adelaide is interesting. I'd think then it would be something like Jenkins + #21 for the pair.

Will be a very interesting off-season for us.

Pick 3 or 4? How many games do Carlton win v Sydney?

 

[Thetrader15]

I would froth at Jenkins & 3 for 2.

Mate, I'd do Jenkins and 3 for 4

 

[Deaneus!]

Pick 3 or 4? How many games do Carlton win v Sydney?

I don't understand - can you elucidate please?

 

[Deaneus!]

I don't understand - can you elucidate please?

Ah i've looked at the fixture

Carlton v Saints at MCG - probable loss
Carlton v Cats at Goomba - loss

Melbourne v Sydney @ MCG
Melbourne v Norf @ Blundstone

Sydney have Melbourne then the Saints - so playing Melbourne means they either put a gap between them and Carlton, or Melbourne comes up to Carlton.

Melbourne need a win and 7% to overtake Carlton, more likely they need two wins, I don't like our chances - and that supposes Carlton don't win at all

 

[hey shorty]

The suggestion was we turn pick 5 into 2 GWS picks, currently 12 & 13 and we’ve given up currently 10 & last years 19, we are behind as this is a weaker draft.

It gets worse if we use it to trade up. It would have cost us this year’s first, currently pick 10, last years 19 and what ever else we have to give up. If we are prepared to do that we should have traded our 3 firsts last year to get in the top 5 last year.

I don't think it's a weaker draft really, just from an SA perspective.

We get a top 5 pick from 10 and 19..... I'd still have us in front.

 

[Elite Crow]

I don't think it's a weaker draft really, just from an SA perspective.

We get a top 5 pick from 10 and 19..... I'd still have us in front.

I’m happy to keep that, I’m referring to downgrading it for 2 firsts, we just end with roughly what we had prior to the trade but Carlton get the extra pick

 

[hey shorty]

I’m happy to keep that, I’m referring to downgrading it for 2 firsts, we just end with roughly what we had prior to the trade but Carlton get the extra pick

I wouldn't be downgrading unless it involved us moving on a player for something else.

A top 5 in any draft is great, I mean it would take something special to give up that.

 

[ABAB]

Which will end up no better than last years 19 and our original pick this year in a weaker draft. So there can be no doubt Carlton have come out ahead as they’ve gained the extra pick

It's a weak draft after the top 4-5 (these are still contain the normal top end quality), I would trade pick 19 + 10 for pick 4-5 any day of the week (especially since this year's mid to late 1st rounder will be weak than other year, especially from pick 10 and onward).

 

[GrommoT]

Ah i've looked at the fixture
...
Sydney have Melbourne then the Saints - so playing Melbourne means they either put a gap between them and Carlton, or Melbourne comes up to Carlton.

Melbourne need a win and 7% to overtake Carlton, more likely they need two wins, I don't like our chances - and that supposes Carlton don't win at all

I think Sydney beating Melb to put a gap on bLoos is better - if Melb win, it opens the possibility of bLoos playing out of their skin to win both remaining games and jump Sydney.

It would be just our luck if Melb get up to beat Syd and mess with our prospects as it would not move them out of the 2nd bottom spot.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

[] Luke Edwards is tracking really well but sounded to me to be a bit cagy about talking about him - maybe gels with the not everything is quite right with the Edwards situation?

Now our players are walking out before they've even got here

 

[hey shorty]

I think Sydney beating Melb to put a gap on bLoos is better - if Melb win, it opens the possibility of bLoos playing out of their skin to win both remaining games and jump Sydney.

It would be just our luck if Melb get up to beat Syd and mess with our prospects as it would not move them out of the 2nd bottom spot.

Sydney winning locks in pick 3 (before AFL handouts) as Carlton play Geelong I think, and theyll need to win to get a top 2.

 

[GrommoT]

Sydney winning locks in pick 3 (before AFL handouts) as Carlton play Geelong I think, and theyll need to win to get a top 2.

Yep, the result of the game should be interesting (not necessarily the game itself). On form Sydney should beat Melb but if they lose without Melb going nuts and pulling one out of their backsides, would really suspect Sydney of tanking.