2019 Expectations

[Johnny Dalmas]

Why did our midfield get worse?

Lots of reasons that work together -- not one big reason.

Guys like Barlow, Crowley and deBoer going out over a period of a couple of years took a lot of defensive grunt and contested ball hardness out of the midfield. Combine that with Fyfe missing most of 16, then (naturally) struggling a little in 17 before missing a fair chunk of 18, and our "big bodied" midfield simply hasn't existed for a lot of the last 3 years.

Sandi playing less than 50% of games over the last 3 games has meant plenty of games when we have been beaten in the ruck.

Lack of defensive pressure in forward 50 has meant our mids have often been on a hiding to nothing when the oppo half-backs get the ball and can run & spread out of defense. This has been because we don't have the running power in our small forwards. For all his faults Ballas is probs still our best 2 way forwardline runner & no one has replaced the tackling and pressure of Mayne.

Finally, we had some v.good midfield coaches and so our stoppage structures and tactics were great. These days we don't seem to have the same tactical nous.

 

[theGav56]

Of course it is all about the midfield. Kind of anyway. And we will struggle at times, but I don't see us going backwards.

We have natural improvement coming from our young squad. I think Banfield can become a good role player for us in the guts and North should debut. Conca and Fyfe look like a they can forge a mini team at bouncedowns, and Blakely is well and truly primed. Our rucks look a lot more settled now in terms of where we are going, which is a good thing too.

Optimistic.

 

[tonygeeks]

Yeah but I don't buy into those champion data things too much.

What if we only go into our forward line 20 times in a game. By the stats we get flogged oh no !!!

But what happens if we go in 20 times for 20 goals ?? And what happens if we kick the first 10 Unanswered and the other teams confidence is shot ?

Anything can happen

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't know their midfield and forward line ratings of our units as bottom 4 last year ended up being pretty accurate but they did under- rate our backline. They also rated the Pies mids as best in the comp if I remember correctly so they got that pretty well on the money too but hey the glorious uncertainty of sport renders everything guesswork but having all the data at least gives them a chance of being somewhat educated I suppose


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Joao]

Go and rewatch the Geelong game

23 unanswered goals can happen

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Except you said 20 entries for 20 goals.

Go watch it yourself and count how many i50s they had. Bet it was more than 23.

Also, how did our midfield play that day?

 

[dominguez]

Not sure how people understand or expect rebuilds to occur and in relation to games won or lost when there are a whole lot of other dynamics going on with every other team etc.

2020-21 the target year for finals? Are we on track...Yes imop
Throughout 2017 and 2018 we did not necessarily play our best 22 available as we endeavoured to develop young players.

To assume you're 2 years away is fraught with danger and can lead to eternal rebuilds like Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast.

Our best 23-24 players in 2019 are very solid so with a good run with injury we should be aiming for finals. If Fyfe, Walters, Hogan, Mundy, Blakely, the Hills and Pearce are fit we should be good enough to win 9-10 at home and 3 or 4 away.

Particularly through the middle we're light on but Fyfe, Mundy, Walters, Blakely, Langdon and the Hills have all played a lot of footy. If they stay on the park and our second year players show improvement we won't miss Lachie.

 

[dominguez]

I think there's a fair bit of danger in predicting linear improvements like that. I can almost guarantee that (not including Essendon who imo are already a good team) 1 or 2 of that group won't be dominating.

I think with the experienced guys we've brought in we're geared up for a jump right now. If that doesn't eventuate I think you have to be asking some real hard questions instead of just assuming the progression of young players will eventually make us into a powerhouse (which history tells us is fairly unlikely).

Spot on.

It's not finals or bust in 2019, but the club needs to show considerable improvement next year or it's time to part with Ross and move in a new direction.

I think we're poised to improve, the addition of a couple of talls and the rule changes present Ross with a great opportunity.

 

[Nightrain]

To assume you're 2 years away is fraught with danger and can lead to eternal rebuilds like Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast.

Our best 23-24 players in 2019 are very solid so with a good run with injury we should be aiming for finals. If Fyfe, Walters, Hogan, Mundy, Blakely, the Hills and Pearce are fit we should be good enough to win 9-10 at home and 3 or 4 away.

Particularly through the middle we're light on but Fyfe, Mundy, Walters, Blakely, Langdon and the Hills have all played a lot of footy. If they stay on the park and our second year players show improvement we won't miss Lachie.

Finally, some rationale.

Finals has to be a minimum next year. Get a good game plan in place, let the old heads lead then watch the youguns follow and play like seasoned professionals.

For all those banging on about our midfield woes, lets remember Redden, Sheed and Cripps are walking around with premiership medallions.

1-2nd year players Liam Ryan and Rioli, are also.

No excuse to not make finals next year. In 2012, Ross got the team gelling in 1/2 season and we still made finals. He has the advantage now that most of the playing group has been under his tutelage for at least a season.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

We had 8 wins. Since 2013 you have needed either 12 or 13 wins to play finals.

So we need to find an extra 5 wins. With much better forward line personnel, a change up in the midfield, and the assumed "natural" development in some of the younger players as they now have a season or two under their belt, I reckon those extra wins are very gettable.

 

[Taylor]

Sandilands was top three in our clearances stats, then he doesn't play a large part of the last three years.

 

[Joao]

Finally, some rationale.

Finals has to be a minimum next year. Get a good game plan in place, let the old heads lead then watch the youguns follow and play like seasoned professionals.

For all those banging on about our midfield woes, lets remember Redden, Sheed and Cripps are walking around with premiership medallions.

1-2nd year players Liam Ryan and Rioli, are also.

No excuse to not make finals next year. In 2012, Ross got the team gelling in 1/2 season and we still made finals. He has the advantage now that most of the playing group has been under his tutelage for at least a season.

Redden, Sheed and Cripps (who plays mostly forward anyway) have played over 400 games between them. Compare that to our midfielders that need to step up and tell me it is the same. Redden in particular had played almost 200 games including many at a good level previously (at Brisbane).

Tucker (~50), Cerra, Brayshaw and Banfield (20 each) etc flat out can't be expected to make that step at this stage. Sure it is possible, but also really unlikely. Tucker doesn't look like he even has it in him at all, let alone this year.

I agree you could get away with inexperienced small forwards.

The only way we play finals is if we keep all of the good players on the park all year. If we are relying on 0-30 gamers to carry loads for more than a few games, you lot are all going to be disappointed.

 

[theGav56]

Redden, Sheed and Cripps (who plays mostly forward anyway) have played over 400 games between them. Compare that to our midfielders that need to step up and tell me it is the same. Redden in particular had played almost 200 games including many at a good level previously (at Brisbane).

Tucker (~50), Cerra, Brayshaw and Banfield (20 each) etc flat out can't be expected to make that step at this stage. Sure it is possible, but also really unlikely. Tucker doesn't look like he even has it in him at all, let alone this year.

I agree you could get away with inexperienced small forwards.

The only way we play finals is if we keep all of the good players on the park all year. If we are relying on 0-30 gamers to carry loads for more than a few games, you lot are all going to be disappointed.

And Rioli isn't an 18 year old. He is 23.

 

[its free real estate]

Redden, Sheed and Cripps (who plays mostly forward anyway) have played over 400 games between them. Compare that to our midfielders that need to step up and tell me it is the same. Redden in particular had played almost 200 games including many at a good level previously (at Brisbane).

Tucker (~50), Cerra, Brayshaw and Banfield (20 each) etc flat out can't be expected to make that step at this stage. Sure it is possible, but also really unlikely. Tucker doesn't look like he even has it in him at all, let alone this year.

I agree you could get away with inexperienced small forwards.

The only way we play finals is if we keep all of the good players on the park all year. If we are relying on 0-30 gamers to carry loads for more than a few games, you lot are all going to be disappointed.

What was the catalyst for us going from 9-13 with a percentage in the low 80s in 2011 to finals the next year?

What did we have then that we don’t have now?

 

[Admiral Byng]

I like to think in terms of points for and against and percentages rather than wins. 2000 points for, less than 1700 points against and the wins and top 8 will take care of itself. To me it means being in an attacking mindset, scoring goals, keeping the ball in our attacking half and all that.

We need to be good at both fast transition and slow build-up play without just bombing the ball in long and getting burnt on the easy defensive counter-attack. Particularly the latter is what we need to work on.

 

[Joao]

I don't know what exact metrics the club use internally. I suspect certain statistical markers (i50s, scores from turnover, clearances etc) based on what Ross and other coaches say in press conferences. That makes sense right, because you can alter your training to try and improve something specific about what isn't working in your system. If you start winning clearances because Conca blocks better than Neale or something then we might score an extra goal per game from clearances. Our system hasn't changed but you score more because you do it better.

On here though everyone just bangs on about big picture things like percentage, attacking play, etc. It is not done like that. There will be a high level plan which is almost certainly some version of "lock it in our forward half for repeat chances to score" and then the rest is the small scale stuff like above. That will be the stuff that changes if we get better, ie players can do it better or we tweaked something slightly based on positioning etc.

I like to think in terms of points for and against and percentages rather than wins. 2000 points for, less than 1700 points against and the wins and top 8 will take care of itself. To me it means being in an attacking mindset, scoring goals, keeping the ball in our attacking half and all that.

We need to be good at both fast transition and slow build-up play without just bombing the ball in long and getting burnt on the easy defensive counter-attack. Particularly the latter is what we need to work on.

So be good at football? I think that is what we are going for, yes.

 

[Admiral Byng]

So be good at football? I think that is what we are going for, yes.

No. Develop a new slow build-up style of play. The standard Ross Lyon model has been to get the ball to about 70-80m out and then kick long to the spot about 10-20m out directly in front. I would like to see us use one extra possession to get the ball to about 55-65m out before making a shorter and more direct kick inside 50 or trying to run the ball into range where a bloke can have a ping at the goals on the run.

I don't care about always kicking to a spot directly in front, I'm all for a bloke having a set shot deep in the pocket so long as they practice that run-around-hook-kick thing like every other team seems to manage. Nor do I mind blokes having a good old-fashioned ping at goal on the run from around the 50. They themselves are not as high a percentage play as having a set-shot directly in front, but getting that set shot in the first place is incredibly low percentage if all you are doing is kicking the ball long to a pack. More shots on goal using any opportunity rather than always going to the "hot-spot".

 

[mightymouse75]

We should suely sneak into the 8 with injuries coming back & the edition of some guns

 

[Joao]

No. Develop a new slow build-up style of play. The standard Ross Lyon model has been to get the ball to about 70-80m out and then kick long to the spot about 10-20m out directly in front. I would like to see us use one extra possession to get the ball to about 55-65m out before making a shorter and more direct kick inside 50 or trying to run the ball into range where a bloke can have a ping at the goals on the run.

I don't care about always kicking to a spot directly in front, I'm all for a bloke having a set shot deep in the pocket so long as they practice that run-around-hook-kick thing like every other team seems to manage. Nor do I mind blokes having a good old-fashioned ping at goal on the run from around the 50. They themselves are not as high a percentage play as having a set-shot directly in front, but getting that set shot in the first place is incredibly low percentage if all you are doing is kicking the ball long to a pack. More shots on goal using any opportunity rather than always going to the "hot-spot".

Serious question, how are you telling the difference between trying to do that and not being able and not trying to do that?

 

[Admiral Byng]

Serious question, how are you telling the difference between trying to do that and not being able and not trying to do that?

• Our forwards don't lead to the pockets, they just jog in and gather in that 10-20m sport directly in spot.
• Our mids don't have running shots at goal, they do the "disciplined thing" and kick to the spot.
• We drop a men back and play one or two short in the forward line, hence there is no option to kick to in that HF area and they go the long kick directly to the spot.

 

[Joao]

• Our forwards don't lead to the pockets, they just jog in and gather in that 10-20m sport directly in spot.
• Our mids don't have running shots at goal, they do the "disciplined thing" and kick to the spot.
• We drop a men back and play one or two short in the forward line, hence there is no option to kick to in that HF area and they go the long kick directly to the spot.

I'll have to take your word for it because it is hard to tell on TV, but I will say that I am sure Ross (or any coach) would prefer a hit up lead at the ball carrier to a bomb to the square. Obviously if you don't get that you do the set up. Every team does it, just the better ones are better at finding that short option.

I think it will come in time.

 

[Taylor]

I think our issue is that we don't hit up an option 60-70m out, all our marks were used up further up the ground or even further ahead of the ball.

 

[Admiral Byng]

I'll have to take your word for it because it is hard to tell on TV, but I will say that I am sure Ross (or any coach) would prefer a hit up lead at the ball carrier to a bomb to the square. Obviously if you don't get that you do the set up. Every team does it, just the better ones are better at finding that short option.

I think it will come in time.

Every team does it a bit, especially when the umpire waves his arms and calls play-on, the player with the ball just kicks it as far as he can deep inside 50. I'm OK with that being Plan C or D and there are no other options. But I notice sometimes our players put their heads down and this becomes Plan A. It is is at these times we go stagnant and struggle to score.

 

[Joao]

Every team does it a bit, especially when the umpire waves his arms and calls play-on, they player with the ball just kicks it as far as he can deep inside 50. I'm OK with that being Plan C or D and there are no other options. But I notice sometimes our players put their heads down and this becomes Plan A. It is is at these times we go stagnant and struggle to score.

Yeah I honestly think that is a player thing, not a gameplan thing. Ross is a defensive coach but you can bet your bottom dollar he would prefer them hitting an uncontested mark inside 50 over a contest. If nothing else, taking an uncontested mark is safer. A contest has the chance for an interception and rebound.

 

[Admiral Byng]

Yeah I honestly think that is a player thing, not a gameplan thing. Ross is a defensive coach but you can bet your bottom dollar he would prefer them hitting an uncontested mark inside 50 over a contest. If nothing else, taking an uncontested mark is safer. A contest has the chance for an interception and rebound.

The problem I've got is with dropping the extra man back in defence and pushing the high half-forward up to the midfield. It means our forwards are outnumbered so there are no uncontested marks if they've got a good defender who can read the play, plus it is easier for the opposition defenders to rebound the ball out.

 

[Joao]

The problem I've got is with dropping the extra man back in defence and pushing the high half-forward up to the midfield. It means our forwards are outnumbered so there are no uncontested marks if they've got a good defender who can read the play, plus it is easier for the opposition defenders to rebound the ball out.

Again I can't really comment because I can't see the whole field. I do agree however, that when teams do man up (ie 6 6 6) the game flows better and generally scores more. I am taking the commentators word for that (ie when teams are doing it). I think it makes sense to do that when you think you will win the balance of contests around the ground.

What I will say is you should never invite pressure when you have the momentum. I reckon that applies in every sport. If you are on top, go for the jugular in the most attacking way reasonable. Not doing that in the last 3 minutes is what cost the Pies the flag.

 

[vidwhal]

I reckon we're still looking at being outside of the 8 but I'm hoping to see an improved ability to kick a bigger score average. That could net a few extra wins so maybe somewhere between 8-10 wins.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app