Prediction 2019 Prediction Thread

[Coobk001]

I'm going the cop out route and not doing any predictions until 3 or 4 rounds in, to see which sides adjust or are affected by the new rules the most.

Definitely a cop out lol. Be brave, have a crack

FYI the poll will close on opening night of the season.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Follow the money - premiership odds:

Richmond 5.00
Collingwood 6.00
West Coast 7.50
Melbourne 7.50
Adelaide 11.00
Essendon 14.00
Geelong 15.00
GWS 18.00

Sydney 21.00
Hawthorn 26.00
North 26.00
Port 34.00

 

[El Zorro]

I just want to be on the record and say that I have NFI who's going to win the flag, let alone how the whole ladder will look at the end of the season.

Most around here didn't have WC in the 8 in 2018. Now many have them to go back to back. Who the * nows?

 

[RossFC]

I just want to be on the record and say that I have NFI who's going to win the flag, let alone how the whole ladder will look at the end of the season.

Most around here didn't have WC in the 8 in 2018. Now many have them to go back to back. Who the **** nows?

If you did know, I'd accuse you of owning a delorean.

 

[Visenfest]

Calling it now: Melbourne won't make finals. Oh and if N0rf think Polec and Hall propels them into the finals, they can think again: they ain't doing s**t. Hope the money was worth it Jared.

My 2019 crystal ball tells me:

1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. Adelaide
4. Geelong
5. Collingwood
6. GWS
7. Sydney
8. Ports

9. Essendon
10. Melbourne
11. North
12. Brisbane
13. Hawthorn
14. Fremantle
15. Carlton
16. Bulldogs
17. GCS
18. St Kilda

- GF & Premiers: West Coast v Adelaide - West Coast Premiers.
- Brownlow: Adam Treloar
- Coleman: Josh Kennedy (Eagles)
- Port B&F: Robbie
- Port AA’s: Boak and Robbie
- Port most improved: SPP
- Port Rising Star nominees: Butters & Duursma

 

[Iwish]

1. Richmond
2. Collingood
3. West coast
4. GWS
5. Adelaide
6. Melbourne
7. Port
8. Essendon

9. Sydney
10. Brisbane
11. Geelong
12. Nth Melb
13. Hawthorn
14. Carlton
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Fremantle
17. St.kilda
18. Gold coast

GF - Richmond / Collingwood
Premiers - Richmond
Brownlow - Dustin Martin
Coleman - Josh kennedy
Power B & f - Travis Boak
Power AA- Boak and Rockliff
Power most improved - Riley Bonner
Power rising star nominees Butters, Rozee

Note: Both Adelaide sides to lose their Elimination finals

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I put up the number of wins per position the last 3 years in the bumped 2018 thread last week and in that I listed what I think the average wins per ladder position would be. I had a crack at matching teams to average wins by adding the 2 columns to the left. Haven't looked at the draw other than what the double up games are for all teams.

Fluro Green teams that won 4 or more games than previous years
Red teams that lost 4 or more games than previous years

Gold = Flag, Green = PF, Brown = PF, Silver = Port

 

[Hammer#8]

Looking at Port's draw theres 6 likely wins (Freo, Dogs, Suns, Carlton, Roos at home and Saints in China).

7 games that could go either way (Lions x2, Richmond, Giants, Freo interstate, Swans at home and Roos in Melb).

9 games which we'll struggle to win (Melb, WC, Pies, 2x Showdown, Hawks in Tassie, Cats at home, Tigers at the 'G, Bombers.

Say we win the 6, win 4 out of the 50-50 games, and pip 1 game we weren't expected to win and we're still 11-11 and not making finals.

The 45-55% win rate ceiling under Hinkley seems likely to continue.

We can't seem to lift ourselves out of that 6th-12th logjam zone.

Even the most optimistic of us who think we can finish top 4 would have to be performing mental gymnastics in how we're going to bridge that gap or where that spike in performance will come from.

However in saying that, the pieces are there, and I think it starts with our gutterball forward entries.

Imagine if Dixon's output was 50 goals in a year, Robbie kicked 35-40 and the Ryder/Motlop/Westhoff/Marshall/Gray types could chip in with 20-30 goals a year. I think our defence/midfield is passable, but our forward setup is a dogs breakfast.

If you look at the stats sheet thats how the Tigers' 2016-2017 and Pies' 2017-2018 performance spikes came from.

It could happen for us, unprecendented and unlikely, but possible.

 

[ozph1870]

Adelaide
Wce
Richmond
Essendon
Melbourne
Gws
Collingwood
North

Ports 12th
Spoon gold coast

Gf Wce defeat richmond
Norm Smith sheed
Brownlow cripps
Coleman betts (6-6-6) will suit him
Rising star rankine

Ports b&f robbie gray
Most improved drew

 

[JUSTWORK]

"It seems like every year, Port Adelaide goes the opposite way most people expect them to.
So after the disappointment of 2018’s historic late-season collapse, should we be watching for a run at the 2019 flag? SEASON PREVIEW."

AFL season preview 2019, Port Adelaide: The case for the Power shocking the footy world with a flag win

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...-P104ahmOcixe0y1G339YXZUS06Y_dGeh3VcNAB0CeiUw

 

[Marmozet]

"It seems like every year, Port Adelaide goes the opposite way most people expect them to.
So after the disappointment of 2018’s historic late-season collapse, should we be watching for a run at the 2019 flag? SEASON PREVIEW."

AFL season preview 2019, Port Adelaide: The case for the Power shocking the footy world with a flag win

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...-P104ahmOcixe0y1G339YXZUS06Y_dGeh3VcNAB0CeiUw

2013: Will hardly win a game
2014: Won't back up last year
2015: Premiership
2016: Will bounce back
2017: Will struggle again
2018: Premiership contenders after recruiting well
2019: Will struggle since they lost two of their best players

 

[AFC AFeederClub]

im still going with richmond because it think with the 666 rules they have the cleanest hands out of the middle and are the most efficient team, add to that 2 finals at the MCG and they have a lot going for them

 

[JUSTWORK]

im still going with richmond because it think with the 666 rules they have the cleanest hands out of the middle and are the most efficient team, add to that 2 finals at the MCG and they have a lot going for them

Interestingly, they were one of the worst centre clearance sides last year. Always had two coming in off the back of the square and would try to win the ball back after conceding the clearance. Cant do that this year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Thought I'd revisit my predictions from mid March given 2/3rds of the season is finished.

Got Melbourne completely wrong. Richmond can't win as many games as I predicted but their injures have crueled them somewhat, but their draw suggest they will fall 2 or 3 games short.

Adelaide Essendon and Sydney will end up a few wins short of predicted. Crows have an easy draw and will get close. I expected Daniher to be a big winner of the 6-6-6 rule change, but he has only played a couple of games. The other 3 sides I tipped to make the 8 will get close to their predicted wins. Sydney probably will 9 or 10 wins.

I said Brisbane and Carlton will be the big improvers and win 4 games more than last year. Brisbane have now achieved that with win against the GWS. Carlton could win 3 more to get 6 wins, but are a lot better than last year even with a sacked coach.

Said Collingwood and Hawks would win 4 less than last year. Hawks are on track, Collingwood will probably win 13 games not 11 games as preicted.

Geelong have already won the 12 games I predicted. Bulldogs and Saints have won more than I predicted. Saints wont win many more but Bulldogs could do a lot better as they are playing well the last month.

 

[Marmozet]

1. Melbourne
2. Richmond
3. West Coast
4. Adelaide
5. Essendon
6. Collingwood
7. North Melbourne
8. Fremantle
———
9. GWS
10. Sydney
11. Geelong
12. Hawthorn
13. Port Adelaide
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Carlton
17. St Kilda
18. Gold Coast

GF: Melbourne (p) vs Richmond (r/u)
Brownlow: Patrick Cripps
Coleman: Ben Brown
Power B&F: Tom Rockliff
Power’s AA: R. Gray
PAFC Most Improved: Todd Marshall
PAFC Rising Star Nominees: Rozee, Butters

I got Melbourne horribly wrong but my other Grand Finalist is still alive.

I wanted to believe that Brisbane would be the big improver but I thought this year might’ve been one year too early for finals (or even Top 4 for that matter)

Tipping Freo to make the 8 could have proven to be genius if they didn’t get a few injuries.

Geelong’s really difficult draw to start the year had me thinking they’d struggle so I was very wrong there.

Lastly, I rated Adelaide, Essendon and North too highly.

 

[TeeKray]

I see the top 4 being (in no particular order) - West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond, Collingwood. Those first three are just such strong, well organised units with major home ground advantages, they should all be aiming for top 4. Collingwood I think have plenty of improvement in them and should do enough to at least hold their ground from 2018.

For the remainder of the top 8, I'm thinking Melbourne, Essendon, Geelong, GWS. The Dees might plateau a bit this year I reckon. Essendon have an overwhelming level of talent now that should at least see them play finals. Same with GWS. Geelong are just immensely favoured by fixturing/umpiring so you can just about lock them in every year.

Hawthorn and Sydney seem to be transitioning but it still wouldn't surprise to see either play finals. North are the only other team I see competing for finals.

Undersold Brisbane but other than that reasonably happy with my predictions. Melbourne did a little worse than plateau though lol.

 

[tribey]

Undersold Brisbane but other than that reasonably happy with my predictions. Melbourne did a little worse than plateau though lol.

Other than getting Melbourne and Geelong wildly wrong, Boak coming from nowhere, Motlop going nowhere and Jack’s season being derailed by injury I’m fairly happy thus far.

 

[Coobk001]

Amon as biggest improver, I don't think many of us could've imagined.

 

[TeeKray]

Other than getting Melbourne and Geelong wildly wrong, Boak coming from nowhere, Motlop going nowhere and Jack’s season being derailed by injury I’m fairly happy thus far.

Brisbane at #2, great call from tribes.

 

[RossFC]

I got Boak winning our B&F right!

Overrated Melbourne/Sydney/Hawthorn, underrated Brisbane.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Must have missed this thread

I know I had predicted pre season tiges to be a long way out in first, with Melbourne, brisbane, Collingwood and norf thereabouts

 

[Coobk001]

2. Brisbane

Nailed it

 

[Coobk001]

Calling it now: Melbourne won't make finals. Oh and if N0rf think Polec and Hall propels them into the finals, they can think again: they ain't doing s**t. Hope the money was worth it Jared.

They were 2 very good calls, and the Melbourne one in particular.