2019 Trade thread

[cotter101]

There’s still no contract on the table for Bundy. I don’t understand it myself, really think he deserves at least a one year extension. Specially when we’ve lost Squizzy and they see Ah Chee playing off half back.

Felt like his form deserved another yeah. Could come back a much better player again too now he’s finally had some continuity these last 2 seasons.

I remember last year thinking he looked really good down back in our last game against the Eagles. I was hoping he’d continue on developing into a role like that this year. Still has a bit to offer I think.

 

[cotter101]

In your opinion. One season of kicking 60 goals means he's a 60 goal a season forward in my book. Remember he's only 25 and is just starting to enter his prime, he's more than capable of doing it again.

I once kicked 10 goals in a game many moons ago. Did that make me a 10 goal a game forward?

Ultimately if Joey can he his body right, he could well prove to be capable of doing it regularly. But until then, it’s happened once.

 

[CarterS]

Great sign that players who are being squeezed out are being picked up by other clubs, first time in years we've had that, Robbo especially very well loved inside the group and I hope it doesn't have any negative impacts on our culture with him going.

Who exactly is still in limbo re contracts for next season? Not a huge fan of this happening but that's the business.

 

[M Malice]

Great sign that players who are being squeezed out are being picked up by other clubs, first time in years we've had that, Robbo especially very well loved inside the group and I hope it doesn't have any negative impacts on our culture with him going.

Who exactly is still in limbo re contracts for next season? Not a huge fan of this happening but that's the business.

Still Out of Contract- Ryan Bastinac, Allen Christensen, Josh Walker, Mitch Hinge, Ben Keays, Sam Skinner, Corey Lyons, Ryan Lester, Matt Eagles.

Apparently Matt Eagles will be picked up as a CatB rookie again.

 

[CarterS]

Still Out of Contract- Ryan Bastinac, Allen Christensen, Josh Walker, Mitch Hinge, Ben Keays, Sam Skinner, Corey Lyons, Ryan Lester, Matt Eagles.

Apparently Matt Eagles will be picked up as a CatB rookie again.

Thanks Jason. Who do you think goes out of that lot?

 

[M Malice]

Thanks Jason. Who do you think goes out of that lot?

Bastinac, Hinge, Lester the most likely 3 IMO.

I'd be very surprised if we let Christensen or Skinner go, the others are a mystery to me.

 

[JayJ20]

Still Out of Contract- Ryan Bastinac, Allen Christensen, Josh Walker, Mitch Hinge, Ben Keays, Sam Skinner, Corey Lyons, Ryan Lester, Matt Eagles.

Apparently Matt Eagles will be picked up as a CatB rookie again.

Pardon the intrusion.

What's the likelihood of Corey Lyons being delisted? I think Essendon would pick him up as a DFA without a second thought.

 

[Clarkythelion]

Pardon the intrusion.

What's the likelihood of Corey Lyons being delisted? I think Essendon would pick him up as a DFA without a second thought.

I have him on my list to be one going. He is an inside mid and good but I feel that is his little box. Unfortunately there are a couple above him in the pecking not and we have just recruited one more in Ellis-Yolmen and our number 1 pick from last year Ely is still to play and seems to have more potential and a bigger body.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I'd hate to see what people would give up for a 100 goal forward like Buddy.

Do you even read the posts you respond to, or do you just enjoy building straw men? I just said Daniher was going into his prime. Buddy is 33. Perhaps you'd hate to see what people would have given up for Buddy at age 25.

But he has a body of a 60 year old .

Easendon don't think so. If I had a player with the body of a 60 year old and I was being offered picks 9 and 25 for him, I'd be jumping for joy and trying to sign the deal ASAP. Seeing as Essendon didn't want to trade him, they clearly believe his body isn't shot and he'll return to his best.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I once kicked 10 goals in a game many moons ago. Did that make me a 10 goal a game forward?

Ultimately if Joey can he his body right, he could well prove to be capable of doing it regularly. But until then, it’s happened once.

At your best, yes it does. You have the talent to kick 10 goals when fit based on that level of competition. Note that a season is a much bigger sample size than a single game however, and I'd be much more confident in saying you could match your season total for that year as opposed to a one game total. Daniher plays at the highest level and easily has the talent to kick 60 again, do you or anyone else here dispute this?

 

[M Malice]

At full fitness Joe Daniher is a gun KPF, he is just entering his prime years and was making impressive steady progression before injury since his early years. Hopefully he can get back to his best, clearly the Bombers and Swans think he can

2018-19 > Injured at age 24-25.
2017 > 65 goals, at age 23, 23 games.
2016 > 43 goals, at age 22, 22 games.
2015 > 34 goals, at age 21, 22 games.
2014 > 28 goals, at age 20, 21 games.

This makes an interesting comparison to our own Eric Hipwood.

2019 > 35 goals, at age 21, 23 games.
2018 > 37 goals, at age 20, 22 games.
2017 > 30 goals, at age 19, 20 games.

 

[Fagenslions36]

Would be great if hipwood is kicking 45 + next year . Mcstay should be wanting 30+. Cameron has a truly exceptional year but those 2 need to step up more and take the pressure off Charlie.

 

[dlanod]

Do you even read the posts you respond to, or do you just enjoy building straw men? I just said Daniher was going into his prime. Buddy is 33. Perhaps you'd hate to see what people would have given up for Buddy at age 25.

I find the idea of paying a player based of a single outlier season silly, so gave a silly counter-example. There's a much bigger list of clubs paying high on a player based off a single good season (including in our history - guys like Sherman, Hooper, Harding or Brennan signing disproportionate contracts based off a good year) and those players returning to their normal form than that good season being the new normal. Historically you are much much better off taking a player's median season and assuming that's their future production than taking their best and hoping that they'll hit it again.

That's before even considering that Daniher has only played a handful of games in the last two seasons. Does he even have a prime any more?

 

[Section 5]

A recent ESPN article reviewing 2018 trade week. Looking back over the year comparing ratings then to re accessed rating now.

Re-ranking the 2018 trade and free agency period

They say hindsight is 20/20, so which team had the clearest vision during last year's annual meat market? Chris Doerre assesses each club's 2018 trade and free agency periods.

www.espn.com.au

The Brisbane part of the article below. Note the Jarryd Lyons trade did not happen till 1st November 2018 so i assume that's why he is not mentioned.

Brisbane
In: Marcus Adams, Lincoln McCarthy, Lachie Neale, pick 18, pick 30, pick 35, pick 56, pick 78, Collingwood 2019 first-round pick, Gold Coast 2019 second-round pick, Fremantle 2019 third-round pick
Out: Dayne Beams, Sam Mayes, pick 5, pick 24, pick 43, pick 59, pick 62, pick 80, 2019 first-round pick

2018 Draft Picks: 18, 30, 35, 56, 78

Grade then: C

Grade now: A+

Rationale: Brisbane made two of the trade period's best moves and 12 months on appear offseason winners with a lot going their way. While appearing favourable 12 months ago, the Dayne Beams deal now looks completely one-sided with Collingwood giving up two first round selections in a deal for the 29-year-old. The other lopsided trade was Brisbane's pick exchange with Gold Coast, securing what at the time was pick 19, Gold Coast's 2020 second round pick and Hawthorn's 2020 third round pick for Brisbane's 2020 first round pick.

The Lachie Neale trade appeared pricey at the time, particularly given the options Brisbane had available at pick 6, but with Neale having his best season yet and Brisbane improving drastically, the trade is more solid 12 months on.

Marcus Adams as in past seasons was effective when available to play but has kept his streak of 11 or less games a season alive. The similarly injury prone Lincoln McCarthy has exceeded expectations, playing a career high 24 games, his first year with 20 or more. The trade of Sam Mayes also looks much better 12 months on than expected, not managing one senior game for Port Adelaide.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I find the idea of paying a player based of a single outlier season silly, so gave a silly counter-example. There's a much bigger list of clubs paying high on a player based off a single good season (including in our history - guys like Sherman, Hooper, Harding or Brennan signing disproportionate contracts based off a good year) and those players returning to their normal form than that good season being the new normal. Historically you are much much better off taking a player's median season and assuming that's their future production than taking their best and hoping that they'll hit it again.

That's before even considering that Daniher has only played a handful of games in the last two seasons. Does he even have a prime any more?

Daniher was consistently increasing his goals every single year until the injury. It's not hard to believe he could have increased it to even 70 or 80 goals in a season. I watched him play, I knew his quality.

You can call the idea silly if you want, but the only thing that mattered in this trade period is how Essendon evaluated him, and it's pretty clear from their stance that they think he'll return to his best. Seriously, people are acting like he's 50 years old and shattered half his body. Do you all think you know more than Essendon do?

 

[BRAB]

Daniher was consistently increasing his goals every single year until the injury. It's not hard to believe he could have increased it to even 70 or 80 goals in a season. I watched him play, I knew his quality.

You can call the idea silly if you want, but the only thing that mattered in this trade period is how Essendon evaluated him, and it's pretty clear from their stance that they think he'll return to his best. Seriously, people are acting like he's 50 years old and shattered half his body. Do you all think you know more than Essendon do?

To be fair if we're going to say that the only valuation of a player that is valid is the one in line with an AFL clubs the discussion would get stilted here pretty quickly.

 

[Dalions]

Daniher was consistently increasing his goals every single year until the injury. It's not hard to believe he could have increased it to even 70 or 80 goals in a season. I watched him play, I knew his quality.

You can call the idea silly if you want, but the only thing that mattered in this trade period is how Essendon evaluated him, and it's pretty clear from their stance that they think he'll return to his best. Seriously, people are acting like he's 50 years old and shattered half his body. Do you all think you know more than Essendon do?

I am hoping that the Bombers hard line stance, bites them on the bum.
He would have went to Sydney this year a new and invigorated man with a positive mindset.
He may now go back to the Bombers with a similar mindset if not an even worse mindset than this year.

 

[briztoon]

A recent ESPN article reviewing 2018 trade week. Looking back over the year comparing ratings then to re accessed rating now.

Re-ranking the 2018 trade and free agency period

They say hindsight is 20/20, so which team had the clearest vision during last year's annual meat market? Chris Doerre assesses each club's 2018 trade and free agency periods.

www.espn.com.au

The Brisbane part of the article below. Note the Jarryd Lyons trade did not happen till 1st November 2018 so i assume that's why he is not mentioned.

Brisbane
In: Marcus Adams, Lincoln McCarthy, Lachie Neale, pick 18, pick 30, pick 35, pick 56, pick 78, Collingwood 2019 first-round pick, Gold Coast 2019 second-round pick, Fremantle 2019 third-round pick
Out: Dayne Beams, Sam Mayes, pick 5, pick 24, pick 43, pick 59, pick 62, pick 80, 2019 first-round pick

2018 Draft Picks: 18, 30, 35, 56, 78

Grade then: C

Grade now: A+

Rationale: Brisbane made two of the trade period's best moves and 12 months on appear offseason winners with a lot going their way. While appearing favourable 12 months ago, the Dayne Beams deal now looks completely one-sided with Collingwood giving up two first round selections in a deal for the 29-year-old. The other lopsided trade was Brisbane's pick exchange with Gold Coast, securing what at the time was pick 19, Gold Coast's 2020 second round pick and Hawthorn's 2020 third round pick for Brisbane's 2020 first round pick.

The Lachie Neale trade appeared pricey at the time, particularly given the options Brisbane had available at pick 6, but with Neale having his best season yet and Brisbane improving drastically, the trade is more solid 12 months on.

Marcus Adams as in past seasons was effective when available to play but has kept his streak of 11 or less games a season alive. The similarly injury prone Lincoln McCarthy has exceeded expectations, playing a career high 24 games, his first year with 20 or more. The trade of Sam Mayes also looks much better 12 months on than expected, not managing one senior game for Port Adelaide.

It’s a minor point, but Lyons wasn’t picked up in a trade. He was signed as a delisted free agent. That is why he wasn’t included.

 

[Dalions]

It’s a minor point, but Lyons wasn’t picked up in a trade. He was signed as a delisted free agent. That is why he wasn’t included.

Jarryd Lyons traded clubs

 

[briztoon]

Daniher was consistently increasing his goals every single year until the injury. It's not hard to believe he could have increased it to even 70 or 80 goals in a season. I watched him play, I knew his quality.

You can call the idea silly if you want, but the only thing that mattered in this trade period is how Essendon evaluated him, and it's pretty clear from their stance that they think he'll return to his best. Seriously, people are acting like he's 50 years old and shattered half his body. Do you all think you know more than Essendon do?

I believe Sydney would have very good knowledge of Daniher’s injury and subsequent surgery, and potential outcomes for success and the players post procedure playing capabilities.

My take is that Essendon’s asking price was unrealistic, given Daniher’s injury history, the nature of the surgery and potential for success or failure, and the likelihood for Daniher to have an injury free career from here on out.

 

[SizeMatters]

Whats with the love for Skinner... a bit far? Has had plenty of time now IMO. Hasn't really knocked the door down this season for senior selection either. and plays a role that we have some genuine depth in. Won't be surprised if he gets an extension but also would more than expect him to be not given one at this stage.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I believe Sydney would have very good knowledge of Daniher’s injury and subsequent surgery, and potential outcomes for success and the players post procedure playing capabilities.

My take is that Essendon’s asking price was unrealistic, given Daniher’s injury history, the nature of the surgery and potential for success or failure, and the likelihood for Daniher to have an injury free career from here on out.

We shall see. If he comes back and plays the majority of a season then it'll be clear Sydney were asking to pay unders.

 

[jackess]

Whats with the love for Skinner... a bit far? Has had plenty of time now IMO. Hasn't really knocked the door down this season for senior selection either. and plays a role that we have some genuine depth in. Won't be surprised if he gets an extension but also would more than expect him to be not given one at this stage.

He switched around a lot in the 2s between forward, defence and ruck which would indicate that the club clearly saw it as another year of development for him. Was huge in the grand final.

I think he has a very limited ceiling though and can't see him offering a lot more than what McStay currently does.

 

[M Malice]

Looking at those comparison figures I posted above between Daniher and Hipwood, Hippy is tracking exceedingly well to be an elite KPF of the competition, seems like he has been around for a while so it's easy to forget he only just turned 22 years of age.

We have an absolute gun on our hands in Hipwood people.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

To be fair if we're going to say that the only valuation of a player that is valid is the one in line with an AFL clubs the discussion would get stilted here pretty quickly.

What we're actually saying is that the club that has had Daniher in their facilities his whole career and whose doctors have seen his body first-hand probably know more about the status of his body and risk of aggravating past injuries than BF commenters would.