Preview 2020 AFL National Draft thread

[King Corey]

Spoiler: Lore's 2020 Draft Order

 

[New_Roo]

Don't despair, draft hounds. It only has us finishing ahead of the Swans on percentage and, looking at our respective draws, it's not unlikely we finish below them. We have three games left against non top 8 sides, they have 4, and I wouldn't be putting money on us against Melbourne after consecutive four day breaks.

Looking at syd remaining fixtures I can only see them with a chance against Mel and Freo and Freo will be other there too


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[Supreme_Chancellor]

Ideally, we need Sydney to snag 3-4 more wins, Melbourne to lose virtually every other game.

 

[New_Roo]

Ideally, we need Sydney to snag 3-4 more wins, Melbourne to lose virtually every other game.

Gws Coll port bris Geel Carlton are the other 6 Carlton maybe gws maybe up for the derby but hard to see many wins


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[Asifhe Givashe]

I've loved what I've seen from Finlay.

He is the exact type that we are missing.

Him and 1 of Hollands/Phillips/DGB with the first pick and we have done really well.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Okay, who wants to list who North, Freo, Melbourne & Sydney haven't played?

I'll start with North: Port, Brisbane, West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Freo.

I see 3 wins max.

 

[Flawed Genius]

Okay, who wants to list who North, Freo, Melbourne & Sydney haven't played?

I'll start with North: Port, Brisbane, West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Freo.

I see 3 wins max.

Generous. We lose to everyone bar Melbourne and Freo on current form. If Melbourne turn up we lose. If Freo turn up and bring their pressure from last night, we lose

It's entirely conceivable that we dont win another game for the year

 

[shinboner magic]

Yes can't see syd moving too far... they already have campbell coming so wouldn't they pick something other than a midfielder? Short in both kpd and kpf as Franklin obviously on his last legs and Blakey can't do it all


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Blakey can’t do **** all - he’s a carbon copy of jarrod grant

He is the exact type that we are missing.

Him and 1 of Hollands/Phillips/DGB with the first pick and we have done really well.

What type is he.

 

[Heaps of fun]

I reckon worst case scenario we get one top 5 and another top 10. Best case obviously would be #2 & #3 but Swans probably have #2 sewn up. Either way it gives us lots of options with what we can do with our picks and there's a very good chance via the Pies with McInness or something similar we can turn two first rounders into something like a top five pick and two picks in the early teens. Maybe grab McDonald or Hollands with our first and then get two mids like O'Driscoll and Trew with what we trade in. Too much to play out right now but we've got options like never before.

 

[Souup]

I've left out Adelaide altogether because they're pathetic and will definitely finish last.

The following is based on the current ladder (team names are obviously teams they haven't played yet)

Sydney (3 wins atm): Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane
Fremantle (3 wins): Hawthorn, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Melbourne (3 wins): Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, St Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne (Currently 3 wins): West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle
Hawthorn (4 wins): Fremantle, West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Carlton (4 wins): West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Sydney
Gold Coast (4 wins): St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne

Predict as you see fit. I've got the following (with my predicted ladder based on wins and %age guess):

Sydney end on ~5 wins
Gold Coast end on ~6 wins
North end on ~6 wins
Hawthorn end on ~7 wins
Carlton end on ~7 wins
Fremantle end on ~7 wins
Melbourne end on ~8 wins

This leaves us with picks 4 and 8

 

[Souup]

Blakey can’t do fu** all - he’s a carbon copy of jarrod grant




What type is he.

He's basically a carbon copy of his brother Jackson

 

[Snake_Baker]

I've left out Adelaide altogether because they're pathetic and will definitely finish last.

The following is based on the current ladder:

Sydney (3 wins atm): Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane
Fremantle (3 wins): Hawthorn, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Melbourne (3 wins): Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, St Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne (Currently 3 wins): West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle
Hawthorn (4 wins): Fremantle, West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Carlton (4 wins): West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Sydney
Gold Coast (4 wins): St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne

Predict as you see fit. I've got the following (with my predicted ladder based on wins and %age guess):

Sydney end on ~5 wins
Gold Coast end on ~6 wins
North end on ~6 wins
Hawthorn end on ~7 wins
Carlton end on ~7 wins
Fremantle end on ~7 wins
Melbourne end on ~8 wins

This leaves us with picks 4 and 8

Good work mate.

Sydney (3 wins at best): Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane
Fremantle (4 wins at best): Hawthorn, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Melbourne (4 wins at best): Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, St Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne (3 wins at best): West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle
Hawthorn (Too schizo to pick): Fremantle, West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Carlton (4 wins at best): West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Sydney
Gold Coast (2 wins at best): St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne

I can't see North, Sydney or Carlton winning any more games than the best projection, whereas Hawthorn, Freo & Melbourne can do better.

I see Gold Coast dropping away.

My best guess

North - 2
Sydney - 2
Gold Coast - 2
Freo - 3
Carlton - 3

Final Ladder

18th: Adelaide
17th: Sydney
16th: Freo
15th: North
14th: Melbourne
13th: Gold Coast
12th: Carlton
11th: Hawthorn

North will get picks 3 & 6.

I suspect we'll be able to grab either Phillips or Holland, and Freo will take Grainger-Barras

Pick 1: Ugle-Hagan - Bulldogs
Pick 2: Tilthorpe - Crows
Pick 3: Hollands - Swines
Pick 4: Phillips - North
Pick 5: Grainger-Barras - Freo
Pick 6: Campbell - Swines
Pick 7: Cox - North
Pick 8: Bruhn - Gold Coast
Pick 9: McDonald - Carlton
Pick 10: Reid - Hawthorn

 

[Rooboys Rool]

I've left out Adelaide altogether because they're pathetic and will definitely finish last.

The following is based on the current ladder (team names are obviously teams they haven't played yet)

Sydney (3 wins atm): Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane
Fremantle (3 wins): Hawthorn, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Melbourne (3 wins): Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, St Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne (Currently 3 wins): West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle
Hawthorn (4 wins): Fremantle, West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Carlton (4 wins): West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Sydney
Gold Coast (4 wins): St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne

Predict as you see fit. I've got the following (with my predicted ladder based on wins and %age guess):

Sydney end on ~5 wins
Gold Coast end on ~6 wins
North end on ~6 wins
Hawthorn end on ~7 wins
Carlton end on ~7 wins
Fremantle end on ~7 wins
Melbourne end on ~8 wins

This leaves us with picks 4 and 8

Here's my crack at it:

Sydney (3 wins atm): Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Brisbane (End on 3 wins)
Fremantle (3 wins): Hawthorn, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney, Western Bulldogs (End on 8 wins)
Melbourne (3 wins): Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, St Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs (End on 5 wins)
North Melbourne (Currently 3 wins): West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle (End on 5 wins)
Hawthorn (4 wins): Fremantle, West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs (End on 6 wins)
Carlton (4 wins): West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Sydney (End on 6 wins)
Gold Coast (4 wins): St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne (End on 5 wins)

Based on that and current %s, ladder would be:

11 - Fremantle
12 - Carlton
13 - Hawthorn
14 - Gold Coast
15 - North Melbourne
16 - Melbourne
17 - Sydney

Would give us picks 3 & 4.

 

[Rad Roo]

Get 2 top 10 mids, that will do...

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Freo’s deficit is sensational news.

 

[giantroo]

New videos of Elijah Hollands, Will Phillips, Braeden Campbell, Zane Trew and Riley Thilthorpe have been uploaded to Patreon.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Snake_Baker]

Okay, he's going to have to be less "flirty" with the handball once he gets to AFL level.

Ground ball skills - Elite
Tackling - Elite
Vision - Elite
Agility - Good
Pace - Good (definitely has a 2nd gear)
Handball - Good (the hang time will have to be modified)
Kicking - Right:good, Left: adequate over short distance

I can now see Pykie's comparison with Cunners. Cunners is definitely the better mark and a better handballer, kicking is on par, and Phillips has him for tackling & a burst of speed from congestion.

 

[the big lebowski]

Zippy and tough. It’s a great combo.

 

[r_boy]

Personally think we should continue the tradition of last year and trade an early pick this year for greater currency the following year if we can find the right buyer.

 

[koshari]

Personally think we should continue the tradition of last year and trade an early pick this year for greater currency the following year if we can find the right buyer.

its not without risk, would need to one like the godees one where worse case scenario would be a points increase.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Personally think we should continue the tradition of last year and trade an early pick this year for greater currency the following year if we can find the right buyer.

Sydney fit the bill as the most logical suitor based upon my best guess of how the ladder finishes.

They would be able to pick up two kids before their academy picks. Papley & 2021 1st round pick for North's pick 3 & 2021 2nd round pick?

They could get Phillips, Hollands, Campbell & Goulden and set themselves up, and we would get Papley for a 2nd round pick, and still pick up a good kid with pick 4-7.

 

[King Corey]

Okay, he's going to have to be less "flirty" with the handball once he gets to AFL level.

Ground ball skills - Elite
Tackling - Elite
Vision - Elite
Agility - Good
Pace - Good (definitely has a 2nd gear)
Handball - Good (the hang time will have to be modified)
Kicking - Right:good, Left: adequate over short distance

I can now see Pykie's comparison with Cunners. Cunners is definitely the better mark and a better handballer, kicking is on par, and Phillips has him for tackling & a burst of speed from congestion.

Cunnington (a solid) 185cm vs Phillips 179cm worth factoring in too.

Ben can always rely on his solid frame and reach whenever he ventures forward or wants to enter congestion.

Phillips will have to preserve his athletic attributes throughout his career to remain effective (a la A.Swallow) unless his tricks and outright aggression are at the Toby Greene end of the scale to compensate.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Cunnington (a solid) 185cm vs Phillips 179cm worth factoring in too.

I read somewhere that Phillips is now 183cm, and as for physical development:

Cunnington at 18



Phillips at 17


IMO, Phillips is the same size as Cunnington was at 20

 

[King Corey]

I read somewhere that Phillips is now 183cm, and as for physical development:

Cunnington at 18

View attachment 926962

Phillips at 17
View attachment 926965

IMO, Phillips is the same size as Cunnington was at 20

View attachment 926968

The 179cm vs 183cm growth would definitely come into my thinking as lazy armchair recruiter.

There's a higher margin for risk at the bigger frame size, knowing even if he loses a yard of pace to injury he's going to have a big enough structure to possibly still impose himself.

Sub 180cm especially these days you need to have 2-3 strong traits to offset against the myriad bigger more athletic foot-soldiers to make it long term.

Do you project any early maturer risk to Phillips?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Do you project any early maturer risk to Phillips?

I don't know enough about him to make that call mate, but I see the traits that will hold their own with Jy & LDU as we go forward.

Physicality over the ball, one touch ball handling skills, and the ability to pin his opponent when he doesn't win it all look to be elite to me, so he would have to be slow (he isn't) or a ball butcher (he isn't) in order to turn out a bust. His size means he will come to hand a bit quicker than most inside mids also.

Is he Chris Judd? No, but I reckon he could end up as good as Cunners, and that's nothing to get upset about.