- Mar 27, 2018
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De Goey 2+, U117.5, Treloar Most disp GrA $15.50 -SB. cant get a boost, so probably better odds
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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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That's fair, from my experience I've done ok with Mihocek AGS, so I'll be pissed if he doesn't get at least one. Thought about putting Marshall in there instead but decided against it as I trust Mihocek more and wanted to put in another Collingwood goal scorer alongside De Goey.
- May 6, 2009
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Getting 20 is a fair ask for most this year, even proven ballpigs, let alone 25.
I'll be steering clear of all 3 of those.
I'm taking 2 multis for tomorrow:
Degoey AGS
Degoey 2 goals+
Wines 15 possies @ 2.60 SB
and
Wines 15+ possies
Wines 20+ possies
Port u40 @ 2.75
Not overly confident on port getting up, but I took bris for minor premier, serong RS and neale for brownlow @ 5.50 before the bris game, so thought I'd spread the love a little instead of backing the pies again
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Might take a chance and it's a throw at the stumps here on Taylor Adams he'll have some shots just whether he kicks them
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LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Surely the stat padding crab Treloar is a moral for most disposals Group A
OhhDeledio
Premiership Player
treloar 25+ 6/7
pendles 20+ 10/12
rockliff 20+ 9/13 (7/8 since round 9)
be pretty unlucky if one of those didnt get up
Typically I love the last round of betting. Unfortunately the games weren't structured exactly how I would have liked, but games seemed to fit the trend although their did seem to be a lot of fight in some of the non-final teams.
2u WB -12.5 - win
2u Rich -10.5 SH - win
1u Melb -2.5 4th - loss
2u Geel SH margin and 3rd and 4th qtr lines - win
1u Hawks +5.5 - win
Totals were tricky with low scoring this year, QLD night games and only 1 pure dead rubber, but overall the trend towards overs continues for the right games.
2.5u O124.5 Hawks vs GC - win
1.5u O112.5 Bris vs Carl - win
2.5u O121.5 Melb vs Ess - loss
1u O116.5 Syd vs Geel - win
0.5u Geel O71.5 - loss
Both losses within a kick
Nice multi in the BOTY at $12. Hit a few multi's lost a few multi's.
Lost 1.5u live on Melb. Terrible bet really as Melb completely shutdown as they only needed a win.
GC the only team that rolled over completely. Although Ess were woeful in the 1st half. Most weaker teams showed a bit of spirit then rolled over late.
Tough to gauge motivation for either Port or Coll with finals locked up so will probably leave for now.
2u WB -12.5 - win
2u Rich -10.5 SH - win
1u Melb -2.5 4th - loss
2u Geel SH margin and 3rd and 4th qtr lines - win
1u Hawks +5.5 - win
Totals were tricky with low scoring this year, QLD night games and only 1 pure dead rubber, but overall the trend towards overs continues for the right games.
2.5u O124.5 Hawks vs GC - win
1.5u O112.5 Bris vs Carl - win
2.5u O121.5 Melb vs Ess - loss
1u O116.5 Syd vs Geel - win
0.5u Geel O71.5 - loss
Both losses within a kick
Nice multi in the BOTY at $12. Hit a few multi's lost a few multi's.
Lost 1.5u live on Melb. Terrible bet really as Melb completely shutdown as they only needed a win.
GC the only team that rolled over completely. Although Ess were woeful in the 1st half. Most weaker teams showed a bit of spirit then rolled over late.
Tough to gauge motivation for either Port or Coll with finals locked up so will probably leave for now.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I'm going similar but going a bit safer and that's the Treloar most disposals Cat A into either Pendles or Wines (haven't decided)
- May 6, 2009
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Agree, really tough game to gauge
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Purely price gone Pies in a true 50/50 game. Have a feeling the Pies will want to win more.
OhhDeledio
Premiership Player
for 20+? pendles way safer surely. 10/12 and the 2 he didnt hit were both 19 touch games. somehow neds have wines @1.45 priced lower than pendles @1.52
- Dec 2, 2017
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Ok I hate this dickhead more than anyone but tall forwards have dismantled ports backline a fair bit this year
I’m massively keen on Cox to score 2 or 3 tomorrow.
However I’m not sure on the weather. If it’s wet don’t even bother
I’m massively keen on Cox to score 2 or 3 tomorrow.
However I’m not sure on the weather. If it’s wet don’t even bother
weather might be shit tomorrow. wet n windy, chasing a low scorer. Ive taken
Daicos 15 Treloar 20
Under 117.5 DeGoey AGS
Not boosted 3.30 on SB
Daicos 15 Treloar 20
Under 117.5 DeGoey AGS
Not boosted 3.30 on SB
D
Del125763
Guest
The price for the Pies v Port is just about right in my opinion. Port are coming in a bit from $1.75 to $1.69.
I'll do a bit of research into the totals tomorrow but the Pies looked a bit more energetic with De Goey back in this team last week.
Port Adelaide as mentioned by another poster have a stingy defence and I think Jonas gets De Goey first up.
I'll do a bit of research into the totals tomorrow but the Pies looked a bit more energetic with De Goey back in this team last week.
Port Adelaide as mentioned by another poster have a stingy defence and I think Jonas gets De Goey first up.
Try being on Mcrae 20+ when he has gone under 25 once this season,$550 collect down the drain,to go with a $1500 collect with the rabbitohs costing me,and Riewoldt kicking a goal after the siren to cost me $275.Shit weekend
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Going off it being wet, so Wines in and under is a good bet for me. Similarly don't mind Rockliff
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
OUCH!
Luckily I got a bonus bet back, but jeez that hurt. I expected Serong to cost me anyway so him clearing 20+ easily hurt more.
- May 6, 2009
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Those high hit % drop drastically when combined from a probabilities perspective.
Combining those hit rates of 86%, 83%, 69% means a probability of under 50%, (roughly 48%) statistically speaking.
Will be on Port -6.5 and maybe a few other margin bets, feel like the body of work by Port this year has been better than the Pies. Port want top spot and have a bit of a point to prove. Whereas Pies will just be happy to get through without injuries.
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GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Youve got the statement the other way around.
Port have secured Top 2 and home final and will be happy to get through without injuries.
Pies will be wanting to avoid a trip to Perth by winning, it will almost likely lock in a Week 2 Final berth. (assuming they win Week 1).
Fair call on the Pies side, but I do think Port are gunning for top (If the press conferences are anything to go by). They also haven't played anyone decent in a while so will want a tune up pre finals. Injury wise they've been lucky this year and don't have to many.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Yep exactly, can see Port not pushing players it's why I'm hesitant on Port player markets.
Gift
Norm Smith Medallist
I'm pretty sure both Pies and Port want to win with both naming strong teams. Its going to come down to who is better on the night rather than who has the extra 1% motivation lol
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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I think both named strong sides, because there is no chance of a game being played as practice before the finals, meaning the bye will lead to a longer break between games.
Just wouldnt surprise me to see Port play for a half a game of footy. Could be totally wrong here.
