Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

Who will Adelaide select with pick 1?

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​
 
Stiffy_18 said:
It think I would be happy with any of the 3 (albeit a bit nervous about Hollands' knee). If I was to rank them with my amateur eye, then McDonald is 3rd on that list. Just doesn't seem to have an much of a point of difference as the other two. Mind you we tend to love our lead up forwards so I can see why we would like him quite a bit.
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perfect! why can't more people be honest like this, and unpretentiously put forward their opinions?
 

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ADL9798 said:
If you say so mate. I’ve made my points, I’m comfortable with my opinion, it appears I’m not the only one who holds it. You’re welcome to continue thinking Jenkins has always been sh*t if you want. There’s only so many hours in the day you can spend debating with people on the internet so I’m moving on from this one.
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actually you kinda are one of only a few remaining lemmings with that opinion

there are certainly zero informed opinions that agree with you

but hey, you’re comfortable with that.

more power to you
 
GROTTO said:
If we draft McDonald with Pick 1, Im confident that he will be an elite player in 5-6 years down the track with the Eagles. :$
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Maybe, but just maybe Adelaide are really thinking EH pick 1. My reasoning for this,

they now know can’t get LM or RT plus Hollands as don’t have pick 1 and 2 which probably was original plan.

Now if go Hollands still going to need key forward, pick 9 will be it for Connor stone

They have supposedly put a lot of work into him, originally 25 to 30 but gaining lots interest that if we seriously want him have be at pick 9, gws Collingwood and lions seriously into him too

196 cm tall athletic, second in speed over 20 metres, fourth in 6 km
- so speed endurance and versatility, forward midfield back, classed as dynamic, with lots potential.
- would been in top ten if was able to play some recruiters say.

solve the problem to take a replacement forward and get Hollands. I wonder if that’s our thinking, hope so
 
Chase13 said:
Maybe, but just maybe Adelaide are really thinking EH pick 1. My reasoning for this,

they now know can’t get LM or RT plus Hollands as don’t have pick 1 and 2 which probably was original plan.

Now if go Hollands still going to need key forward, pick 9 will be it for Connor stone

They have supposedly put a lot of work into him, originally 25 to 30 but gaining lots interest that if we seriously want him have be at pick 9, gws Collingwood and lions seriously into him too

196 cm tall athletic, second in speed over 20 metres, fourth in 6 km
- so speed endurance and versatility, forward midfield back, classed as dynamic, with lots potential.
- would been in top ten if was able to play some recruiters say.

solve the problem to take a replacement forward and get Hollands. I wonder if that’s our thinking, hope so
Click to expand...
Edit 188 cm but still a forward but my assumption with Hollands could still be based on acquiring stone.
 
Chase13 said:
Maybe, but just maybe Adelaide are really thinking EH pick 1. My reasoning for this,

they now know can’t get LM or RT plus Hollands as don’t have pick 1 and 2 which probably was original plan.

Now if go Hollands still going to need key forward, pick 9 will be it for Connor stone

They have supposedly put a lot of work into him, originally 25 to 30 but gaining lots interest that if we seriously want him have be at pick 9, gws Collingwood and lions seriously into him too

196 cm tall athletic, second in speed over 20 metres, fourth in 6 km
- so speed endurance and versatility, forward midfield back, classed as dynamic, with lots potential.
- would been in top ten if was able to play some recruiters say.

solve the problem to take a replacement forward and get Hollands. I wonder if that’s our thinking, hope so
Click to expand...
Agree 100% Thilthorpe will slide the most out of the 3. Hollands and Thilthorpe are safe bets that they’ll likely be 1 club players.
 
Chase13 said:
Maybe, but just maybe Adelaide are really thinking EH pick 1. My reasoning for this,

they now know can’t get LM or RT plus Hollands as don’t have pick 1 and 2 which probably was original plan.

Now if go Hollands still going to need key forward, pick 9 will be it for Connor stone

They have supposedly put a lot of work into him, originally 25 to 30 but gaining lots interest that if we seriously want him have be at pick 9, gws Collingwood and lions seriously into him too

196 cm tall athletic, second in speed over 20 metres, fourth in 6 km
- so speed endurance and versatility, forward midfield back, classed as dynamic, with lots potential.
- would been in top ten if was able to play some recruiters say.

solve the problem to take a replacement forward and get Hollands. I wonder if that’s our thinking, hope so
Click to expand...
They may well pick Holland’s but only if they rate him the best player

pick 9 will have nothing to do with what they do at pick 1 and it can’t
 
Crow Envy said:
I think you are right about Pedlar, I reckon he’s going to fit in our plans somewhere. What does Faith think?
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9 is a big punt for Pedlar, but would be more than comfortable taking a swing with 22/23
 
hey shorty said:
9 is a big punt for Pedlar, but would be more than comfortable taking a swing with 22/23
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It would be a brave punt at 22/23 - I've seen mock drafts having him go around 40-50, but if we think we need another inside mid then this lad has to be considered - he knows no fear!!
 

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arrowman said:
Just on bidding (for JUH): There's a concept in Contract Bridge called "being fair to the field" in a tournament. It means that you don't change your playing style based on where you are in the standings / what score you need to maintain your position. (Like, you don't start taking silly risks that no reasonable player would take.) Because the way you play, and what you score, affects the outcome for other players in the tournament. And I think a similar thing would apply in other contests / sports.

Applying this to the draft, I think it means that we bid on JUH if and only if he is genuinely the player that is #1 in our talent order. We don't not bid because we know the Bulldogs will match, and we don't bid just to be spiteful, knowing that we'll get our "real first choice" at pick 2. We just play a straight bat and let the rules sort it out.

- At the same time, I can understand a "strategic bid" if we see a benefit to us in knocking out draft picks from the other club. Is just doing damage to the other club, without a benefit to us, a justification? Maybe not.
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there’s always a benefit, because by matching, our later picks will come in.

also, * the VFL. They’re forever changing rules and making decisions and we’re forever getting the rough end of the pineapple. For once we have the opportunity to * one of our main competitors, completely in line with the rules. If we don’t take it, we’re ******* spineless. What, the AFL will be angry and do something bad to us? THEY DO THIS ALL THE TIME ANYWAY. WE SPEND ALL OUR TIME BEING NICE FOR NO ADVANTAGE, REMIND ME WHERE DID WE FINISH?

Oh, that’s right, LAST.

Remember that time we played the Bulldogs and the free kick count was 17-1 from Pannell? It’s revenge time.
 
Betts are off said:
I love the week before the draft. Mid tier ranked Kids surging up the draft board tells me that other kids will be slipping into the 2nd round!

Serves us well given our draft hand!
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Yep... this always happens . There is the way that the media and draft watchers rate players which is more the here and now

then there is the way that club recruiters rate the players and it’s a bit more on projection as well as here and now

so no one is really bolting or sliding but it’s just the little bits of info that comes through about who clubs rate higher than the media and draft watchers
 
Disco Fox said:
It would be a brave punt at 22/23 - I've seen mock drafts having him go around 40-50, but if we think we need another inside mid then this lad has to be considered - he knows no fear!!
Click to expand...
Mock drafts won’t mean much by next week , would not surprise to see him end of 1st round onwards

not sure he exactly fits our needs but like him regardless
 
Jeffcrowe said:
They may well pick Holland’s but only if they rate him the best player

pick 9 will have nothing to do with what they do at pick 1 and it can’t
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It shouldn't ....but IMO clubs do have an eye to list needs, despite their words

Why else would clubs talk about a Talls Draft ....or a mids Draft in 2021

It's the reason why so many have us taking McDonald or Thilthorpe .....because next year is a mids draft ....it shouldn't make any difference if clubs "actually" took best avail
 
ADL9798 said:
If you say so mate. I’ve made my points, I’m comfortable with my opinion, it appears I’m not the only one who holds it. You’re welcome to continue thinking Jenkins has always been sh*t if you want. There’s only so many hours in the day you can spend debating with people on the internet so I’m moving on from this one.
Click to expand...
It’s really sad that people on this board let blind prejudice influence them into slagging one of their own players Isn’t it? Any objective and unbiased view of JJ’s career shows a guy that was taken in the rookie draft and used his strengths so well that he ended up with a good to great AFL career. His stats clearly show it, and in fact even his perceived weakness, his contested side, was pretty healthy. He averaged more contested possessions per game, and contested marks, than Jeremy Cameron, and he just got traded for 3 1st round picks.

Having an opinion that one of your own players isn’t your favorite is one thing, but feeling the need to get on a public forum and denigrate that player and question his courage, especially when it clearly isn’t true, just shows that person’s own issues.
 
Disco Fox said:
And McDonald & if you read the latest interview, Thilthorpe. I have been an optimist for my whole life, but Perkins has sailed close to being accused of draft tampering in 2 interviews, but significantly back-tracked a bit in the most recent interview. Could be a young lad feeling his way with the media circus or he got warned by somebody - possibly his manager. I have never heard, in recent years, a draftee enthusiastically talk about going to a specific uni, which happens to be in his home state.
However, having said all that, what we mature people know is that he may go interstate reluctantly, & yet love the club, grow to love the city & never leave!!!
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Of course, and we have our own fair share of people who broke down crying due to being drafted by Adelaide end up being 200 gamers here.

The question is just needs a bit of maturity, or can't hack it.
ADL9798 said:
Suggesting we should have gotten rid of him in 2016 is Captain Hindsight magical thinking. He was a key component of the most potent forward line in the competition and as unfashionable as he was, if we had lost him at that point it would've put a big dent in our chances of making a grand final in 2017.

Do you honestly think the Crows could have acquired another 2 metre forward/ruck who consistently kicks 45+ goals a season for less than the $550k a season he signed for in 2016? Or anything even remotely in that ballpark? He was paid unders for most of his time at the Crows - the fact that Brisbane were offering him $750k/year proves my point. I'm sure they weren't the only ones inquiring after him.

Also worth noting that for 2 of his 40+ goal seasons we were paying him his original contract which I can't find a source for but I think we can safely assume was considerably south of $500k/year.

The trade off for retaining a player of his calibre on such a low salary was the contract length (5 years 2016-2021), meaning at the back end, yes he is at present overvalued relative to output. We had/have a number of contracts like this, such is the price of keeping the core of a premiership contending side together. For Jenkins, this needs to be balanced against the fact that he overperformed relative to cost from 2014-2018.

Anyway, enough of Jenkins. Back to the draft.
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It is captain hindsight in 2020 but the warning signs were there in 2016, I missed them, but others didn't. Noting it was rumored we lost Stewart over the decision to retain Jenkins and Alan Stewart was worth far more to this club seeing he's a wizard with developing players (and now at Port).

Does losing Jenkins put a dent in our 2017 run? The answer is likely no and it comes from how little Jenkins offered. It meant we needed McGovern in that lineup so we had an aerial presence and we had to sacrifice Lynch as a link up forward. Pretty much we had to hide Jenkins in most facets and that forward line imploded on itself once we lost McGovern (both in 2017 and since).

Do I think we could have acquired another 45+ goal forward? Unlikely. Did we need to? Not really. We needed to find someone who could compete in the air regularly to take our reliance on McGovern being fit down. We could have comfortably sacrificed half of Jenkins goals to plug this gap and still came out on top in terms of output because we lived and died on our aerial presence that year. There are a lot of that type floating around.

You do need to pay to keep your core together however you also need to accurately read who are your core players. If this club genuinely thought Jenkins was, it's another notch to the mistake column because he was never that. He was a role player and due to how flawed he was, he lost all benefit to us post that 2016 contract. That highly flawed but at least kicking goals key forward is great if you're only paying a pittance for it ( I'm willing to forgive a lot of sins for the sake of frugality). If your paying above average rates for that player, it becomes a bad situation, quickly.

The game has well and truly moved past the days where a key forward is only in the side to kick goals. Key forwards need to be capable of setting up goals, and reliably able to neutralise the ball (at worst case) in the air if they want to be genuinely valuable to a side on top of finishing off opportunities. On this note, you should be damn excited about how Himmelberg is tracking in the back end of 2020. Take note of how poorly someone like Jenkins was rated here and league wide, even at his peak to show how little value goals have if there isn't substance behind it.

That said the misread on Jenkins is just a small thread in Roos story on how to destroy a team capable of competing for a premierships chances.
 

A closer look at their 2020 seasons also shows that while there are obvious contrasts, such as McDonald kicking 21 goals to Thilthorpe’s five and 201cm Thilthorpe, who is five centimetres taller, playing in the ruck, some of their key statistics are alike.

1607033431948.png

Thilthorpe

He’s got commitment, determination and character.”

Siekman said Thilthorpe’s kicking and running were strengths.

“He’s one of the best runners in our club and in the SA hub this year,” he said.

“He wants to be another Brodie Grundy, but he also wants to be a Max or Ben King, or Nick Riewoldt.

“I don’t know how many 200cm blokes can kick with left or right comfortably, not just use his left when he’s in trouble.

“He’s always at training early and always practising his kicking.”

McDonald
He can work up the ground, he can work back and his biggest asset is he was able to work over defenders, and they couldn’t go with him in the finish,” Williams said.

Of McDonald’s lower tackle numbers, Williams said: “he was never shy in not tackling, it was whether the opportunity presented itself and his contested pressure was never questioned.
 
www.afl.com.au

Going Places: Why Clarko blew away the best interview in the draft

Hawthorn's four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson left Will Phillips in awe
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

"David Teague, Leon Cameron were good, as was Matthew Nicks at Adelaide. That was a really good interview. We're on the same page in terms of leadership and what his values are," Phillips says.
 
Jeffcrowe said:
Yep... this always happens . There is the way that the media and draft watchers rate players which is more the here and now

then there is the way that club recruiters rate the players and it’s a bit more on projection as well as here and now

so no one is really bolting or sliding but it’s just the little bits of info that comes through about who clubs rate higher than the media and draft watchers
Click to expand...
I find it the most fascinating part of the draft TBH. Looking at an picture through smoke and mirrors, only to think you are starting to see the image finally start to emerge. When in reality, its you've just walked into a different room full of thicker smoke and convex mirrors!

For me i've learned through many AFL and NFL draft's that its detrimental to put all your eggs into 1 basket for any pick. You need a cluster of players that you are happy to pick at any one spot. Sure you have your favourite, but if you can't handle not taking 1 player at that spot, then you will get absolutely no enjoyment out of the process!
 
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