Unofficial Preview 2020 Draft Discussion

[TylerDurden]

Surely there is absolutely no way we can look past McDonald if he slides to 4. He's already beating men 1 on 1 at 85kg. In contests, working up at the ball and working back to goal. He can kick them from anywhere. Top that off with no major injuries this year and exposed 2020 form.

Talk of vanilla is nonsense when you're kicking consistent goals in the WAFL as an 18 year old.

I won't be thrilled if we trade away that pick for some much more speculative selections (which is how I see Cox and Perkins).

This.
Above is the reason Dodo wants to throw those picks for this selection.

 

[Hodginator]

Really hope we don’t trade with Essendon to give them the higher pick.

Firstly, it means we probably miss McDonald and Phillips or any of the other highly touted top 5 picks.

Secondly, screw Essendon.

 

[HawkInExile]

I definitely agree, screw Essendon

After we pick McDonald, we should do our own impersonation of the Dodo fist pump just to rub it for good effect.

 

[Roby]

The clock doesn’t lie, and there’s a reason they measure it over 20m. Are you suggesting McDonald held back on this?

No but acceleration isn't just 20m. People hit top speed before that.

 

[Blackhawk42]

(AFL site predraft write up from 2000)
Riewoldt
Is an excellent overhead mark and has a great work ethic continually presenting himself across half forward. Also shows great courage in contests. Won All Australian honours in AFL U18’s this year representing Queensland and played in the premiership side with Southport this year finishing runner up in the best and fairest. His Draft Camp results confirmed his athletic potential with a 2.92sec for 20m putting him in the top bracket for pace and his running vertical leap of 81cm also in the top rankings. His 13.11 beep result was also impressive along with his skill work where his overhead marking shone like a beacon.

McDonald

(from draft central)
"He does tend to rely on taking the ball on his chest a little, a trait which may see him come undone a touch under the pressure and pace of AFL football"
"McDonald tests well in the power tests such as the 20-metre sprint (3.029 seconds) and vertical leap (82cm), but is not massively explosive."

Similarities:
(From draft central)
"One of the main assets which sets McDonald apart is his endurance, something which has seen him draw comparisons to Nick Riewoldt. A preseason yo-yo test score of 21.3 and 2km time of 6:33 at the national combine suggest he is elite in that department, especially for a player of his size."

____________
I don't see how he has the potential to be the next Riewoldt when he literally shares one trait with him. Riewoldt was a different beast altogether, speed/endurance mix, super skilled and some of the best natural mitts in AFL history. McDonald has elite endurance. This is an empirical fact. He doesn't have elite overhead marking i.e. DGB or Henry or Sicily types- he is decent some of the time but uses his chest way too much. He rarely takes pack marks and relies on space i50 and good body-positioning one-on-one to protect the dangerous area.

If anyone watched Hawthorn's uber defensive game plan of kick it long down the line to a ruck and/or/then repeatedly bomb it into the 50 so TOB could spoil to our non-existent crumbers, where is all the "space" where McDonald is going to lead into to take chest marks? Or the dangerous space out the back left by virtue of our quick ball movement. The reality of an AFL zone defense is very different from a massive WAFL ground where a lotta the blokes look like human fridges. What's he going to do with McGovern, Andrews, Moore etc, these types, sitting in the space he wants to lead into?

Those who say I have a "bias" - implicit in a bias is that it is prejudiced or unfair, I would call my position analytical and critical - in that, I have considered what he does well, what he doesn't and how that package projects to fit within the modern game. In no way shape or form am I being contrarian because I have it in for him or some rubbish. An opinion among many others, but in a few years we will likely see only 3 or so from the Top 10 actually become very good/guns at AFL level. The strike rate his astoundingly poor. Look back at these

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
View attachment 1024303 View attachment 1024306View attachment 1024307View attachment 1024308View attachment 1024310

For KPP's

2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Weitering (tick) Schace (bust) Francis (bust) Weideman (average) McKay (too early)	McCartin (Bust) Marchbank (bust) Wright (Bust) Moore (Tick)	Boyd (avg) the others aren't genuine Kpp's	Plowman (Bust) Stringer (avg) Daniher (tick pre injury)	Patton (bust) Buntine? is he kpp? (Bust) Haynes (tick) Tomlinson (bust)

That's five drafts of top 10 KPP players who should by now have developed into mature AFL players. The strike rate for a GUN is 23% and that is generously including Daniher because of pre-injury.

The moral of the story and what I said when I first came on here, is all pre-draft stuff is blowing smoke, pipe-dream and fantasy land type stuff. But the cold hard facts are out of JUH, Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Reid, Cox - there is likely one gun (maybe two), a couple of solid afl players and some abosute dead set spuds.

So based on this fact, when I watched the minimal footage of the players I have, I said to myself "where are the red flags" and for mine McDonald has a boatload - average to above average explosiveness, not fantastic above his head, not a fluid mover and slow/awkward field kicking (yes it can be effective), overperformed against lesser than AFL competition. Jackson Ross kicked 20 odd as well in a VFL season and he has the body of a draftee.

Anyway, that's my final word on McDonald and we will see how it all plays out. But like I said, if he is in B&G I hope I am wrong and I will cheer for the kid to become great.

cryptor I highlighted those traits in the previous post because they confirm my thinking about McDonald - he lacks superlatives - Endurance aside. If I was looking for something in a modern KPF endurance would be great, but I think great hands would be better. Not sure how you could call this a 'bias'? - as I said - you could put that description next to TOB and you would not be wrong. He also works hard, presents and kicks it pretty straight and long.

Read you all post draft

Don't mind the effort involved, but Plowman can't be considered a bust. He isn't a star but he's played 110 games and is a super reliable defender. Average should be used for himself, Marchbank and Tomlinson on this chart (if you are going to call Tom Boyd average who only ever played 4 elite weeks of football in 40 odd career games as a pick 1).

 

[WWSD]

If we can walk away from this draft with one key position player, one small forward, one midfielder and also Downie, that would be a really good draft haul.

 

[Roby]

Not according to their respective 20 second times noted in the post above yours. But really it's a negligible different.

Well shielding according to the 20m sprint Nick Riewoldt is quicker than Will Phillips. Will Phillips can accelerate much faster than Riewoldt.

Anyway I haven't found anywhere N.Riewoldts is recorded. Shaun Burgoyne

9

Shaun Burgoyne

Age

43

Ht

186cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.8

5star

MG

162.7

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.6

2star

HB

4.4

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

162.7

3star

D

6.2

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

1.6

4star

tested 2.97, Cyril was 2.96, Lewis Jetta was 2.95 all slower than Riewoldt.

 

[lethalselbow]

It would be funny if North Melbourne select Hollands with pick 2.

Why?

 

[WWSD]

Why?

It would open the door for McDonald or Grainger-Barrass being available with pick 4. That is assuming Adelaide select Tilthorpe with pick 1.

 

[MJA33]

Archie Perkins interviewed on Sportsday Radio yesterday and asked straight out where he thinks / would like to go to and answered Hawthorn or Essendon

 

[Del33640]

After we pick McDonald, we should do our own impersonation of the Dodo fist pump just to rub it for good effect.

I reckon go the double fist pump, then a Ted Whitten swinging fist 'we stuck it up them' for effect

 

[Bardo State]

Since the comparison is being made between McDonald and Josh Kennedy, here's a comparison for their WAFL stats.

Here is McDonald as an 18 year old



Here is JJK in his 3rd and 4th years in the AFL (08/09) after he moved to West Coast.



Kennedy has the edge with his production, particularly with his marking, but there's not a world of difference there.

Good combine testing is nice but what really matters is how you use your athleticism. You can see that McDonald knows how to lead at the ball to get a metre on his opponent. This is to the point where his opponent will play in front of him and then he looks like he knows how to play from behind, reading the ball and holding his opponent under it to take a standing contested mark, or take one falling back.

 

[Del33640]

No but acceleration isn't just 20m. People hit top speed before that.

First of all, I take if you've never been to a track meet or watched the Olympics (hint, full acceleration isn't reached prior to 20 metres, it's between 35-55 metres).

Secondly though, even forgetting the above, I think you'd appreciate that over 20 metres, even if two athletes have the same high end speed, the one who accelerates faster is going to wind up out in front at the end of 20 metres.

But mostly, see point 1.

 

[theiaofseed]

Firstly that’s massive overs ....can see 6,8 for 4 and 23 .
Adressing your org qu yes think it’s 2.30 on the clock BUT iv got a feeling a discussion may have been had already so all parties are ready ...

Depends how much Essendon rate McDonald, they could see him as the clear pick 1, then 7,8,9 for 1, 24 doesn't seem so crazy.

 

[lethalselbow]

Depends how much Essendon rate McDonald, they could see him as the clear pick 1, then 7,8,9 for 1, 24 doesn't seem so crazy.

It is crazy.

 

[Pessimistic]

(AFL site predraft write up from 2000)
Riewoldt
Is an excellent overhead mark and has a great work ethic continually presenting himself across half forward. Also shows great courage in contests. Won All Australian honours in AFL U18’s this year representing Queensland and played in the premiership side with Southport this year finishing runner up in the best and fairest. His Draft Camp results confirmed his athletic potential with a 2.92sec for 20m putting him in the top bracket for pace and his running vertical leap of 81cm also in the top rankings. His 13.11 beep result was also impressive along with his skill work where his overhead marking shone like a beacon.

McDonald

(from draft central)
"He does tend to rely on taking the ball on his chest a little, a trait which may see him come undone a touch under the pressure and pace of AFL football"
"McDonald tests well in the power tests such as the 20-metre sprint (3.029 seconds) and vertical leap (82cm), but is not massively explosive."

Similarities:
(From draft central)
"One of the main assets which sets McDonald apart is his endurance, something which has seen him draw comparisons to Nick Riewoldt. A preseason yo-yo test score of 21.3 and 2km time of 6:33 at the national combine suggest he is elite in that department, especially for a player of his size."

____________
I don't see how he has the potential to be the next Riewoldt when he literally shares one trait with him. Riewoldt was a different beast altogether, speed/endurance mix, super skilled and some of the best natural mitts in AFL history. McDonald has elite endurance. This is an empirical fact. He doesn't have elite overhead marking i.e. DGB or Henry or Sicily types- he is decent some of the time but uses his chest way too much. He rarely takes pack marks and relies on space i50 and good body-positioning one-on-one to protect the dangerous area.

If anyone watched Hawthorn's uber defensive game plan of kick it long down the line to a ruck and/or/then repeatedly bomb it into the 50 so TOB could spoil to our non-existent crumbers, where is all the "space" where McDonald is going to lead into to take chest marks? Or the dangerous space out the back left by virtue of our quick ball movement. The reality of an AFL zone defense is very different from a massive WAFL ground where a lotta the blokes look like human fridges. What's he going to do with McGovern, Andrews, Moore etc, these types, sitting in the space he wants to lead into?

Those who say I have a "bias" - implicit in a bias is that it is prejudiced or unfair, I would call my position analytical and critical - in that, I have considered what he does well, what he doesn't and how that package projects to fit within the modern game. In no way shape or form am I being contrarian because I have it in for him or some rubbish. An opinion among many others, but in a few years we will likely see only 3 or so from the Top 10 actually become very good/guns at AFL level. The strike rate his astoundingly poor. Look back at these

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
View attachment 1024303 View attachment 1024306View attachment 1024307View attachment 1024308View attachment 1024310

For KPP's

2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Weitering (tick) Schace (bust) Francis (bust) Weideman (average) McKay (too early)	McCartin (Bust) Marchbank (bust) Wright (Bust) Moore (Tick)	Boyd (avg) the others aren't genuine Kpp's	Plowman (Bust) Stringer (avg) Daniher (tick pre injury)	Patton (bust) Buntine? is he kpp? (Bust) Haynes (tick) Tomlinson (bust)

That's five drafts of top 10 KPP players who should by now have developed into mature AFL players. The strike rate for a GUN is 23% and that is generously including Daniher because of pre-injury.

The moral of the story and what I said when I first came on here, is all pre-draft stuff is blowing smoke, pipe-dream and fantasy land type stuff. But the cold hard facts are out of JUH, Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Reid, Cox - there is likely one gun (maybe two), a couple of solid afl players and some abosute dead set spuds.

So based on this fact, when I watched the minimal footage of the players I have, I said to myself "where are the red flags" and for mine McDonald has a boatload - average to above average explosiveness, not fantastic above his head, not a fluid mover and slow/awkward field kicking (yes it can be effective), overperformed against lesser than AFL competition. Jackson Ross kicked 20 odd as well in a VFL season and he has the body of a draftee.

Anyway, that's my final word on McDonald and we will see how it all plays out. But like I said, if he is in B&G I hope I am wrong and I will cheer for the kid to become great.

cryptor I highlighted those traits in the previous post because they confirm my thinking about McDonald - he lacks superlatives - Endurance aside. If I was looking for something in a modern KPF endurance would be great, but I think great hands would be better. Not sure how you could call this a 'bias'? - as I said - you could put that description next to TOB and you would not be wrong. He also works hard, presents and kicks it pretty straight and long.

Read you all post draft

Which shows one club taking two talls who made it. Riewoldt and Kosi, buddy and roughy all the more remarkable
Even GWS with multi multi year picks took Cameron and patto in different drafts

 

[daniel23]

Can't wait until this is all over it's so much less stressful not having 1st round picks.

 

[TylerDurden]

Which shows one club taking two talls who made it. Riewoldt and Kosi, buddy and roughy all the more remarkable
Even GWS with multi multi year picks took Cameron and patto in different drafts

Boyd the other.

 

[TylerDurden]

Depends how much Essendon rate McDonald, they could see him as the clear pick 1, then 7,8,9 for 1, 24 doesn't seem so crazy.

They won't even give up a 2nd of those picks. A deal will never get done.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

I want to take McDonald just because i know how desperately Essendon wanted him, would love to make them watch him develop in to a premier key forward in the Brown and Gold!

 

[threesixpio]

Can't wait until this is all over it's so much less stressful not having 1st round picks.

And winning flags all the time

 

[Billyc]

Some of the comments on McDonald - who seemed for a long time to be the consensus pick 1 - are very surprising. Some comments smack of coming to a conclusion and then working backwards and picking selective quotes to support that conclusion (while ignoring a lot of data and other critiques by other judges). He might not be that 'exciting' JUH type but what he does is consistently take marks including contested marks and kick goals. Pretty valuable traits in a key forward.

His strengths according to a few draft watchers / writers:

Doerre: consistency, scoreboard impact, overhead marking at the highest point, aerial marking, contested marking, one-on-one bodywork, work rate, agility

Sheehan: strong overhead, hard running, reads ball impressively in flight, fast

Draft central: Endurance, goalkicking, forward craft, one-on-ones, kick penetration; elite contested marking

How on earth somebody gets Jack Watts out of that beats me. Sounds and looks much more Kennedy / Tredrea / Riewoldt. I get the argument that key forwards are not what they once were in the game and that might lead a club to prioritise midfielders but let's not pretend McDonald isn't a very good key forward. His proven production for a key forward is as good as any in recent years and this is in a year where half the draft have no proven production this year. If he somehow slips to 5, it is an absolute steal. Still a very good chance to go first to the Crows and can't help but feel he'd be a lock if he were not from WA.

 

[sohsam]

Can't wait until this is all over it's so much less stressful not having 1st round picks.

It is either that or Cox/Perkins/Laurie if GWS picks on offer, take your pick, going by Cal's latest phantom draft. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Davo-27]

If it was to happen (McDonald sliding to us) what are your thoughts Davo? Take him and run or offer 4 + 24 to the * for picks 6 + 8?

i wasnt a big fan of McDonald in 2019, he just had a poor champs and i was not sold on him, but then he came out this year and played top quality footy in the WAFL whether it was pre-season where he averaged 3 goals a game or in the WAFL where he ended as 2nd leader on the WAFL goal kicking tally after leading for most of the season and then finishing in the team of the year in the WAFL, he has really good height, he runs all day so good endurance, his speed is a little slow, but not Mitch Lewis slow, more medium paced, good on the lead, i never had an issue with his leading or marking or even body work as in the champs even when he was playing average he could still lead and mark and was clever around goal, in 2018 and 2020 he was playing at a very high level, it was his 2019 where i thought he was underwhelming and that could be because of his HSC year? im unsure? but i would take him or DGB over Phillips at 4 as ive said before because its not often you get the chance to draft a top quality tall and i think he could be that for us, but if the club are invested in Patton/Lewis they may decide to go the best midfielder route and go Phillips?

at 6 + 8 you might be able to get Perkins and Henry or something like that, its the question of, do you want a rare quality tall forward or 2 flanker/mids that arent Phillips or Hollands who could be quality flanker/mids? the rarity of tall forws make you want to go for McDonald, but Phillips is so tempting and our midfield needs work, im tired of seeing our mids get destroyed week in and week out, but having McDonald and if he works out could raise us up the ladder and attract others to come to our club.

i would say McDonald and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan are comparable, with Jamarra having a little more speed and McDonald being more well rounded physically, as far as mentals, they both want to make it and seem determined to put their best foot forward, which is important.

 

[TylerDurden]

The last tall fwd we picked at 5 from WA worked out ok