2020 FA, Draft and Trade HYPOTHETICAL thread...now with new DFA speculation!

[Strapping Young Lad]

A good reference point for picks.

 

[Brishawk]

Raynor ???
Cmon Abasi......that’s who u come up with ???

Raynor is on the verge. Think he might break out this final series. Has improved through his time at Brisbane and I can see him become a top player. More importantly for Hawthorn's sake, he is EXACTLY the type of player we need and would fill a massive hole. Big bodied, power athlete who can play forward, win the ball at ground level or in the air and run the the middle. And he is a good kid.

 

[Brishawk]

Yeah but Petracca was being talked about as a dissapointment... He averaged 19 disposals, 1 goal and 6 score involvements a game.

In his 3rd season he has significantly significantly better than what Rayner currently is. If he was playing in a poor team people would be piling on him, the comparisons only exist because of the Draft hype. Since coming in to the AFL Dusty and Rayner were much better players.

All I'll say is that it isn't where he is now that matters, it is where he will end up. Rayner didn't come to AFL with an AFL ready body and has had to do a lot of work to do to get himself into a position where he can influence matches more regularly. Only this year has he really begun to understand what he has to do to turn games. It will happen a lot more in the coming years. I can assure you, the Lions are very happy with his progress.

 

[Slysh]

All I'll say is that it isn't where he is now that matters, it is where he will end up. Rayner didn't come to AFL with an AFL ready body and has had to do a lot of work to do to get himself into a position where he can influence matches more regularly. Only this year has he really begun to understand what he has to do to turn games. It will happen a lot more in the coming years. I can assure you, the Lions are very happy with his progress.

I am not writing him off but i am just disagreeing with the comparisons to Petracca as a player who took time to come on.

He may become the best player in the game one day but he has not show he has that ability yet. His value still entirely lies in potential and that is it.

 

[Billyc]

I am not writing him off but i am just disagreeing with the comparisons to Petracca as a player who took time to come on.

He may become the best player in the game one day but he has not show he has that ability yet. His value still entirely lies in potential and that is it.

I see that type of player - the explosive midfielder/forward - as the most valuable in the game now. Especially in low scoring contests.

Martin is obviously the pick of the mid-forwards in that mould (and MVP in comp IMO) whereas Toby Greene is my pick of the forward-mids. Then there is Petracca, De Goey, ageing Robbie Grey etc. Each of those players had times early in their career where a club could have grabbed them before they exploded (for different reasons).

On the flip side, Stringer is an example of one who hasn’t gone on with it from his early promise.

Rayner is maybe more forward-mid like Greene or De goey. Yes he’s still just potential but a draft pick is only potential too and a higher risk of being a complete bust. I share the view that he’s about to explode and be the type of player who wins games. He and Wingard rotating mid and forward could be game changing

 

[sohsam]

I see that type of player - the explosive midfielder/forward - as the most valuable in the game now. Especially in low scoring contests.

Martin is obviously the pick of the mid-forwards in that mould (and MVP in comp IMO) whereas Toby Greene is my pick of the forward-mids. Then there is Petracca, De Goey, ageing Robbie Grey etc. Each of those players had times early in their career where a club could have grabbed them before they exploded (for different reasons).

On the flip side, Stringer is an example of one who hasn’t gone on with it from his early promise.

Rayner is maybe more forward-mid like Greene or De goey. Yes he’s still just potential but a draft pick is only potential too and a higher risk of being a complete bust. I share the view that he’s about to explode and be the type of player who wins games. He and Wingard rotating mid and forward could be game changing

He was Pick 1 in 2017. Just goes to show, top 5 draft picks are not everything and take time if you rely on 1-2 players each year to fill up 7-8 spots. We argue so much who to get with our first pick, if could pick up less risky player and still have a later draft pick let the better. If Bruest/Gunston want out and are on the decline, only have 2-3 good years left, cannot be part of our next premiership, make sense. Probably only a rumour so far. We already have 2 top 1 picks in Paton/Scully, we got both cheaply.

 

[Zack]

I said this in the game thread so I'll put it here, if someone asks about Mitchells availability, I'm prepared to listen.

If the price is right (and that price does not need to be anywhere near where it was the day after he won the Brownlow), I'm prepared to trade. I have serious concerns about his loss of pace off an extremely low base originally (b4 injury) and his lack of ability to get the footy even in a soft tag this year. 12 possessions today and I doubt any broke up the game or even allowed us to really set up anything. Played every game this year and in all honesty if you were only doing the old 3,2,1 for B&F at the club Will Day would be triple him in votes if he's got a vote. Watch carefully too, the way he attacks the ball is different in a pack to pre-injury.

His issues are exacerbated by the fact our team is the slowest in the league and the short quarters, but unless we think we can get him as fast as he was from a list management perspective at his age you'd have to go with Cousins and take the best deal you can get. If we were a fast club competing for finals you'd keep him in an instant but we are not and we really don't have anyone on the list as a kid who could change that. There'd be half a dozen clubs thinking about it and we'd get the best trade this year for him. Especially given GC generally has skinny kids playing so he'll stack up the stats next week to make him a prime target.

Yes I know this sounds brutal, but it's far less brutal than the Lewis/Mitchell deals. It's also not reactive like they were more proactive which is what we need to be to regenerate more quickly.

 

[Brant]

I said this in the game thread so I'll put it here, if someone asks about Mitchells availability, I'm prepared to listen.

If the price is right (and that price does not need to be anywhere near where it was the day after he won the Brownlow), I'm prepared to trade. I have serious concerns about his loss of pace off an extremely low base originally (b4 injury) and his lack of ability to get the footy even in a soft tag this year. 12 possessions today and I doubt any broke up the game or even allowed us to really set up anything. Played every game this year and in all honesty if you were only doing the old 3,2,1 for B&F at the club Will Day would be triple him in votes if he's got a vote. Watch carefully too, the way he attacks the ball is different in a pack to pre-injury.

His issues are exacerbated by the fact our team is the slowest in the league and the short quarters, but unless we think we can get him as fast as he was from a list management perspective at his age you'd have to go with Cousins and take the best deal you can get. If we were a fast club competing for finals you'd keep him in an instant but we are not and we really don't have anyone on the list as a kid who could change that. There'd be half a dozen clubs thinking about it and we'd get the best trade this year for him. Especially given GC generally has skinny kids playing so he'll stack up the stats next week to make him a prime target.

Yes I know this sounds brutal, but it's far less brutal than the Lewis/Mitchell deals. It's also not reactive like they were more proactive which is what we need to be to regenerate more quickly.

Mate he missed 12 months, then wasn’t allowed to do a pre-season (COVID-19). This season was never going to be as good as 2018 & circumstances made it heaps worse.

He’s been far below his best - that’s 100% undebatable - but don’t underestimate the impact of the above & the impact our disastrous Ruck has had.

 

[Zack]

He’s been far below his best - that’s 100% undebatable - but don’t underestimate the impact of the above & the impact our disastrous Ruck has had.

I'd be the last person to underestimate how bad our rucks have been. But they were the same rucks from previous years. It is fair to say it was far more McEvoy two years ago.

My problem with him is more in open play he's a witches hat at best now he's lost whatever pace he once had. But he is also not going into packs like he once did. Sure perhaps it's mental, but if he doesn't get over it we are not a team to cover his slowness elsewhere now he no longer gives us first service of the footy. He's better suited to other teams at this point of time and if they pay the right price given where we are and his age. We should explore options. He's only 18 months younger than Gunston, with Tom's injuries there is fair chance Jack will be around longer.

 

[Soaring Hawk]

My hope:

FA - Corr

Draft: if we can’t get Hollands or Campbell, then I hope we get DBG. Dunstall couldn’t perform in our forward line, and our backline is going to be practiced in the next few years, so may as well get the best KPB and get them experienced before we come good.

Corr and DGB would stabilise our back KPP for the foreseeable future. DGB, Corr, Sicily, Scrim, Hardwick & Frost is a decent backline & would release Day into the mid.

Trade: pick 21 for someone like XOH, Caldwell, RCD. Would try to get one of these guys, rather than draft the next string of mids with our first, as I think that they can be as good as the draft mids.

Must keep Gunston & Breust; we need their class, experience & leadership.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Billyc]

It’s an interesting point - that Mitchell is only 18 months younger than Gunston.

A lot of people seem happy to float Gunston for trade but he’s currently our best player and leader and plays a role where we have nobody else (ie goalkicking).

At the right price - and it would have to be a very good price - Mitchell or JOM should not be untradeable. Our midfield with the two of them and Worpel is ineffective and one dimensional.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I said this in the game thread so I'll put it here, if someone asks about Mitchells availability, I'm prepared to listen.

If the price is right (and that price does not need to be anywhere near where it was the day after he won the Brownlow), I'm prepared to trade. I have serious concerns about his loss of pace off an extremely low base originally (b4 injury) and his lack of ability to get the footy even in a soft tag this year. 12 possessions today and I doubt any broke up the game or even allowed us to really set up anything. Played every game this year and in all honesty if you were only doing the old 3,2,1 for B&F at the club Will Day would be triple him in votes if he's got a vote. Watch carefully too, the way he attacks the ball is different in a pack to pre-injury.

His issues are exacerbated by the fact our team is the slowest in the league and the short quarters, but unless we think we can get him as fast as he was from a list management perspective at his age you'd have to go with Cousins and take the best deal you can get. If we were a fast club competing for finals you'd keep him in an instant but we are not and we really don't have anyone on the list as a kid who could change that. There'd be half a dozen clubs thinking about it and we'd get the best trade this year for him. Especially given GC generally has skinny kids playing so he'll stack up the stats next week to make him a prime target.

Yes I know this sounds brutal, but it's far less brutal than the Lewis/Mitchell deals. It's also not reactive like they were more proactive which is what we need to be to regenerate more quickly.

I agree 100%, but what do you think we'd get for Mitchell in a trade ? I think we'd be haggling to get a top 10 pick.

 

[PenAndPaper]

Mate he missed 12 months, then wasn’t allowed to do a pre-season (COVID-19). This season was never going to be as good as 2018 & circumstances made it heaps worse.

He’s been far below his best - that’s 100% undebatable - but don’t underestimate the impact of the above & the impact our disastrous Ruck has had.

Whilst I agree with the missing 12 months, he hardly had a preseason missed at all due to COVID.

 

[sohsam]

It’s an interesting point - that Mitchell is only 18 months younger than Gunston.

A lot of people seem happy to float Gunston for trade but he’s currently our best player and leader and plays a role where we have nobody else (ie goalkicking).

At the right price - and it would have to be a very good price - Mitchell or JOM should not be untradeable. Our midfield with the two of them and Worpel is ineffective and one dimensional.

I thought Worpel's game has come down signficantly compared to last year with Mitchell in. Worpel and Mitchell maybe playing for same spot. I thought JOM could play inside/outside, has burst of speed. We probably gave up twice as much to get JOM compared to Mitchell.

Gunston/Bruest have been so durable, no serious injury while at our club. They both consistently kicked 50 goals a year in our premiership years. They could be handy to a team in premiership window. It all depends on our strategy and what Gunston/Bruest want. As someone else said a while a go, the brave decision back 3 years was not to let Lewis/Mitchell go, but was to trade Gunston/Bruest out. The club must have given hope to Gunston that with getting Mitchell/JOM we were still in premiership era.

 

[Zack]

I agree 100%, but what do you think we'd get for Mitchell in a trade ? I think we'd be haggling to get a top 10 pick.

Its interesting if he can rip GC a new one they have 5 or 6. Geelong have 11,15,16 would I take 15,16 yep. Remember Abletts fading and Selwood has seriously faded this year longer quarters next year will hurt them but hes a perfect foil 2 danger. Richmond don't have much unless they flip a future as well, Collingwood Buckley ain't a fan which is tricky. Brisbane have 18,19 and always talk 2 us. Freo who knows. But yeah 2 under top 20... I'd push the button. If the best is geelongs 11 I'd take it.

Even if its 15 or 16 geelong and perhaps they chuck in 35 even if we give something back late we do have 2 remember it's just not cousins, its Worpel too. Most teams don't carry one at that pace let alone 3.

Some club might come from nowhere Sydney as Kennedy is cactus, but it might be less too.

 

[ML4Hodgy]

I'd be the last person to underestimate how bad our rucks have been. But they were the same rucks from previous years. It is fair to say it was far more McEvoy two years ago.

My problem with him is more in open play he's a witches hat at best now he's lost whatever pace he once had. But he is also not going into packs like he once did. Sure perhaps it's mental, but if he doesn't get over it we are not a team to cover his slowness elsewhere now he no longer gives us first service of the footy. He's better suited to other teams at this point of time and if they pay the right price given where we are and his age. We should explore options. He's only 18 months younger than Gunston, with Tom's injuries there is fair chance Jack will be around longer.

I also agree he was slow as treacle today, but it’s only him and Winguard who have played every match. Given the lack of breaks, that’s a mighty effort. Who knows what he’s carrying to still turn up and put in. Everyone is quick to write off anyone over 26 who has a rough year.

It was easy to Pot Gunners last year, and say he was shot, if you didn’t know he was playing sore. and look at him this year.

Lots of holes in the list, but still a good core to build around.

 

[sohsam]

I agree 100%, but what do you think we'd get for Mitchell in a trade ? I think we'd be haggling to get a top 10 pick.

Are you saying we could potentially get 4 top 10 picks? one for each of Mitchell/JOM/Bruest/Gunston. That would be brutal.
We would be left with cousins/Worpel/Downie/Finn/Shiels/Howe as our midfielders which maybe enough and forward line of Paton/Lewis/Wingard/Hardwick which again maybe barely enough if we are in rebuilding phase. That would be a total backflip to what we did 3-4 years ago, giving up early picks.

 

[Billyc]

Are you saying we could potentially get 4 top 10 picks? one for each of Mitchell/JOM/Bruest/Gunston. That would be brutal.
We would be left with cousins/Worpel/Downie/Finn/Shiels/Howe as our midfielders which maybe enough and forward line of Paton/Lewis/Wingard/Hardwick which again maybe barely enough if we are in rebuilding phase. That would be a total backflip to what we did 3-4 years ago, giving up early picks.

You certainly would not do all 4. Only one I would think.

In terms of trade value it would go: Mitchell, Gunston, Breust, JOM.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Gunston will only be leaving if he wants to go, and we get a really good return. He's contracted for 2 more years.

 

[Brant]

Whilst I agree with the missing 12 months, he hardly had a preseason missed at all due to COVID.

Pre/early season... Whatever.

He needed fitness & games & continuity & instead, he missed an extra 12ish weeks of footy.

 

[J_GUNstall19]

Its interesting if he can rip GC a new one they have 5 or 6. Geelong have 11,15,16 would I take 15,16 yep. Remember Abletts fading and Selwood has seriously faded this year longer quarters next year will hurt them but hes a perfect foil 2 danger. Richmond don't have much unless they flip a future as well, Collingwood Buckley ain't a fan which is tricky. Brisbane have 18,19 and always talk 2 us. Freo who knows. But yeah 2 under top 20... I'd push the button. If the best is geelongs 11 I'd take it.

Even if its 15 or 16 geelong and perhaps they chuck in 35 even if we give something back late we do have 2 remember it's just not cousins, its Worpel too. Most teams don't carry one at that pace let alone 3.

Some club might come from nowhere Sydney as Kennedy is cactus, but it might be less too.

Waste of time he's not going anywhere while the team is in this transitional phase. Value is at an all time low as well so would be stupid to trade him now, in 12 months reassess.

 

[MasterSamurai]

You could argue that the likes of Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Gibson , even Burgoyne played better team football all above 28 yrs old onwards. Let the core of this team settle , retire or get rid of deadwood and replace them with youngsters like Day, Greaves, Finn , cousins and whoever else deserves a spot in the best 22 going frwd from here on.
Polec, Saad , McDonald types are NOT going to improve us significantly, the improvement must come from what we have plus a game plan that's sustainable in today's modern game, whether it's pretty or not isn't important imo, it's about results and we can't keep playing like this next year.
Lock Gunston, Bruest, Smith , Shiels in for the next 3 years and make them the real leaders and the core, then see which players are on board from there.

 

[Agent8686]

I would like to move one of Mitchel/Gunston/Bruest to upgrade our pick 21 into another top 10 pick. Heath Champan/Zach/Nic Cox appeal to me with that mid first round pic.

We just need to be honest with our premiership stars and let them know we are looking to the future and that we will be bringing a lot of kids in as we look to rebuild. Perhaps we can move on of them on to chase more premiership glory with another club, while also helping them transition into life after football when they retire.

Communication is the key here, as we don't want to just push players out.

Improving our draft position with each draft should be our goal, along with keeping an eye out for a bargain trade like we did with Scrimshaw and Impey with one of our later picks. Just need balance it out, as we need some experience to help provide guidance to the new kids that we bring in.

 

[The Chad and I]

In the instance that we do actually get something coming back that we like, we may be interested in releasing Gunston who is contracted to 2022.

So, this one is for you Brishawk.

Gunston, Pick 3 and 21 to Lions for Pick 16, 19 and Raynor.

Dreaming?

This isn't quite what I'd call insanity, but it is pretty close.
Rayner has had +20 disposals x2 times.
He has kicked 3 goals x3 times - never more.
48 games over 3 seasons.

Not quite a gun forward, nowhere near an adequate midfielder either.

Pick 21 for 19 is a bit of nothing trade - so evens out.

Essentially pick 16 for Gunston.
Pick 3 for Raynor.
I wouldn't trade a top ten pick for Raynor on what he has shown.

Raynor is full of talent, but can he become a Martin/Petracca type?
He isn't anywhere close to those two at the same age, but that's what he would have to become to make pick 3 worth it.

I like Raynor, but there's not much value for us in that trade.
We're giving Brisbane much more than we are getting back.
If they want Gunston so much they can make a good offer for him alone.

 

[Glorin]

Breust says he always wants to finish here.
Cant see Gunner requesting a trade either.
Mind you, if we only offer 1 year, and another club offers 3+, then maybe.

Gunston signed till 2022. He will be 30 then and up for FA. Bruest is going to be 30 by next year I think, but he is the sort of player that will play till he is 34-35 if he wants. There is a superannuation package out there for both at another club after next season. Things will be a lot clearer then.

 

[Glorin]

My biggest issue with the trading Bruest narrative is the difficulty in getting value for him. He's going to be 30 at the start of next year so despite the accolades he has it's difficult to see any club offering anywhere near the value we rate him at. I wouldn't be trading him for a second round pick but it's difficult to see most clubs offering anything more than that.

I still believe if anything were to eventuate it would be with Brisbane. They're firmly in their Premiership window, have deliberately targeted Hawthorn IP in the past and are in a position where they can offer us decent currency (a late first round pick). Bruest has also obviously worked with Fagan before so he may not be inherently against the idea.

But I only mention this because it's a hypothetical thread. As far as I know Bruest wants to remain a Hawk and has knocked back lucrative offers in the past.

Gunston is one I wouldn't trade for anything. He's shown so much leadership this year that I think nothing comes close to the true value he holds for our club and our developing players.

Agree, on the very short list for capt next season.