2020 Non-Crows AFL Discussion

[FR0GGY]

No so sure on this compensation thing, sometimes shit happens.
My business relies on events and shows and if these get shut down, I don’t make money and there will be no compensation.
Maybe it’s just me being salty?

 

[BACCS]

Yes, as noted - most of the assumptions I made were of the optimistic nature. The reality we face is actually worse than those numbers suggest.

Thanks Dr Vader

 

[ams4crows]

I see Bennell has done his calf again, Melbourne should cut him loose already the project has failed

 

[Mego Red]

Yes, as noted - most of the assumptions I made were of the optimistic nature. The reality we face is actually worse than those numbers suggest.

Your hospitalization percentage is probably low, to be honest. China and Italy put hospitalization at 14%, and intensive care at about another 5% on top of that. 3% seems to be a consistent death rate.

Where your math is wonky is this idea that 80,000 will all need hospital care at the same time. If we can drastically slow the exponential rate of transmission, then obviously we are going to see far fewer simultaneous cases, because people will be recovering and healthy again.

 

[cleanhands]

Your hospitalization percentage is probably low, to be honest. China and Italy put hospitalization at 14%, and intensive care at about another 5% on top of that. 3% seems to be a consistent death rate.

Where your math is wonky is this idea that 80,000 will all need hospital care at the same time. If we can drastically slow the exponential rate of transmission, then obviously we are going to see far fewer simultaneous cases, because people will be recovering and healthy again.

I’m more worried about running out of dunny paper

 

[FR0GGY]

Your hospitalization percentage is probably low, to be honest. China and Italy put hospitalization at 14%, and intensive care at about another 5% on top of that. 3% seems to be a consistent death rate.

Where your math is wonky is this idea that 80,000 will all need hospital care at the same time. If we can drastically slow the exponential rate of transmission, then obviously we are going to see far fewer simultaneous cases, because people will be recovering and healthy again.

The rates are far less as well because there would be plenty that get it an go undiagnosed.

 

[GreyCrow]

That's all well and good but a bit of scare-mongering isn't going to see me miss the F1 this weekend

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[crows dude]

I will still go to AO if they try and lock us out. Footy is a release for me from everyday life. We as adults should be able to decide for ourselves if we want to go. If you are sick use your head and stay home. Then the healthy ones can go watch the footy

 

[flashcrow]

I’m more worried about running out of dunny paper

You won't be clean hands if you do!

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I will still go to AO if they try and lock us out. Footy is a release for me from everyday life. We as adults should be able to decide for ourselves if we want to go. If you are sick use your head and stay home. Then the healthy ones can go watch the footy

Yikes. Going to Adelaide Oval when it's locked is some weird, creepy stalker shit and you seem to be arguing that your personal freedom to enjoy a hobby is worth risking the spread of a deadly virus.

 

[Scorpus]

I will still go to AO if they try and lock us out. Footy is a release for me from everyday life. We as adults should be able to decide for ourselves if we want to go. If you are sick use your head and stay home. Then the healthy ones can go watch the footy

What and just stand outside?

 

[Vader]

Your hospitalization percentage is probably low, to be honest. China and Italy put hospitalization at 14%, and intensive care at about another 5% on top of that. 3% seems to be a consistent death rate.

Where your math is wonky is this idea that 80,000 will all need hospital care at the same time. If we can drastically slow the exponential rate of transmission, then obviously we are going to see far fewer simultaneous cases, because people will be recovering and healthy again.

That 80,000 is based on a flat rate, which produces a much, much, lower value than would be expected in reality with an exponential curve. In reality, we're likely to see a peak of 200,000 simultaneous cases.

If you follow the assumptions I previously stated, you'll see how I derived the 80,000 figure. I calculated the total number of cases, then those requiring hospitalisation (which you think I've underestimated badly), then I divided that by 12 to find an average monthly rate, then I multiplied that by 5.5/4 to account for the 5-6 week recovery period.

If 60% of the population catches coronavirus, then 80,000 simultaneous cases requiring hospitalisation is going to be a massive underestimate.

 

[GROTTO]

Made me think of Port....

 

[jackster83]

View attachment 837715




Made me think of Port....

I got as far as "handouts" lol.

 

[crows dude]

What and just stand outside?

Sure if I have to if u can’t find a way in. They shouldn’t be able to tell us that we can’t go watch the footy

 

[GROTTO]

What and just stand outside?

Whats so wrong with that?

Thats how Port counted attendance at their China games.

 

[Elite Crow]

‘Keep your mouth shut and show something’: AFL great lashes Port coach’s bold approach

‘Keep your mouth shut and show something’: AFL great lashes Port coach’s bold approach

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Elite Crow]

Sure if I have to if u can’t find a way in. They shouldn’t be able to tell us that we can’t go watch the footy

Don’t be ridiculous and selfish. Of course the government based on health advice can issue what ever decree they want to stop this spreading and people dying. The AFL won’t have a choice if it gets to that

 

[Mego Red]

That 80,000 is based on a flat rate, which produces a much, much, lower value than would be expected in reality with an exponential curve. In reality, we're likely to see a peak of 200,000 simultaneous cases.

If you follow the assumptions I previously stated, you'll see how I derived the 80,000 figure. I calculated the total number of cases, then those requiring hospitalisation (which you think I've underestimated badly), then I divided that by 12 to find an average monthly rate, then I multiplied that by 5.5/4 to account for the 5-6 week recovery period.

If 60% of the population catches coronavirus, then 80,000 simultaneous cases requiring hospitalisation is going to be a massive underestimate.

At the moment, the exponential curve in every country is approximately doubling every six days. Which is fine for March and April - and will have us at 1m+ cases by May.

BUT. If we slow this curve, the math changes drastically. As it does with early testing and prevention, and managing of cases for early recovery.

You should forget your number about how many you think will have it. There's better ways to model it - how many we have currently and the exponential rate of increase divided by the period of recovery. It's going to keep increasing but if we can slow it, we have a chance.

Of course, all the idiots that say "it's just the flu" and "I'll just ignore the preventions" mean we're absolutely ****ed. They won't believe it until it's on our door.

 

[GROTTO]

Not sure if its been posted before. Nevertheless a good and reliable recent doco.

 

[Vader]

At the moment, the exponential curve in every country is approximately doubling every six days. Which is fine for March and April - and will have us at 1m+ cases by May.

BUT. If we slow this curve, the math changes drastically. As it does with early testing and prevention, and managing of cases for early recovery.

You should forget your number about how many you think will have it. There's better ways to model it - how many we have currently and the exponential rate of increase divided by the period of recovery. It's going to keep increasing but if we can slow it, we have a chance.

Of course, all the idiots that say "it's just the flu" and "I'll just ignore the preventions" mean we're absolutely f’ed. They won't believe it until it's on our door.

If we slow it, we can maybe keep the peak to 200,000 simultaneous hospitalisation cases at the peak. If we don't, it will probably be closer to 500,000 at the peak. We can't even cope with my best case scenario of 80,000, which assumed a flat average distribution across the whole year (no peaks or troughs).

 

[Mego Red]

If we slow it, we can maybe keep the peak to 200,000 simultaneous hospitalisation cases at the peak. If we don't, it will probably be closer to 500,000 at the peak. We can't even cope with my best case scenario of 80,000, which assumed a flat average distribution across the whole year (no peaks or troughs).

I share your concern, but flattening the curve of exponential expansion has FAR different results.

If it doubles every 11 days instead of every 6 (say), we may never reach that critical point where it suddenly becomes 100's of 1000s of infected. It's preventing the tipping point.

We all subconsciously assume it's not going to happen, which is why it seems so inevitable, sadly.

 

[GROTTO]

Coronavirus officially a Pandemic.

World Health Organisation officially declares a pandemic

The World Health Organisation has officially declared the global coronavirus crisis a pandemic.

www.news.com.au

Surely R1 will be called off.

The irony of Crows needing to get games into our kids in a year where we may see no/reduction games played.

 

[GrommoT]

Coronavirus officially a Pandemic.

World Health Organisation officially declares a pandemic

The World Health Organisation has officially declared the global coronavirus crisis a pandemic.

www.news.com.au

Surely R1 will be called off.

The irony of Crows needing to get games into our kids in a year where we may see no/reduction games played.

Another worry is what implications on the draft if cov-19 wrecks the AFL season this year.

In a rare year where we're tracking to finish low and be entitled to good draft picks, it would be cr@p if we're denied that if not enough rounds get played to determine the premiership order.

 

[DJ75]

Another worry is what implications on the draft if cov-19 wrecks the AFL season this year.

In a rare year where we're tracking to finish low and be entitled to good draft picks, it would be cr@p if we're denied that if not enough rounds get played to determine the premiership order.

AFL will likely just run a 'lottery' and surprise, surprise, Gold Coast get pick 1! Followed by GWS, Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon, Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Sydney, more teams, then .........................................Adelaide. Oh but we put a priority pick in place for Gold Coast just before Adelaide's first pick as well. Congrats on pick 20 Adelaide!