Resource 2020 Stats thread + prior year comparisons

[RussellEbertHandball]

New year, so a new stats thread. I will start with a new stat. THE MDF. The Marshall Dixon Factor.

Marshall has played 20 games for 15 Wins and 5 Loses 75%. He has played 14 games with Dixon for 11 Wins and 3 Losses 78.5%.

Dixon has played 70 games for Ports for 39 wins and 31 loses 55.7%. Without Marshall he is 56 games 28 wins and 28 Losses 50%.

Since Marshall debuted, Dixon has played 18 games without Marshall for 8 Wins and 10 Losses 44.4%

I've read so many people's opinion on both Marshall and Dixon the last few months I thought I would look at when they play together.

For me there is a synergy argument - The whole is greater than the the sum of the parts - about them. People criticise Marshall, and he isn't above criticism, but they don't seem to, or can't look at the full 360 degree big picture. Our forwardline works better when they both play and you don't have Ken plonking Westhoff at CHF like he is polyfilla, filling up his near decade long forwardline crack, or Ryder forced to play as a KPF, when one of Marshall or Dixon is missing.

For those who aren't sure, IF = times delivered the ball Inside 50, CM = contested marks, MI = Marks inside 50, %P = % of game time played.

3 games lost - the overtime EF, against Essendon when Marshall was knocked out late in 2nd quarter and when we all played like shit against North last year.

 

[Chrizzt]

So I wanted to see how their scores per i50 compared when they were in tandem or not, but it appears match stats have been removed from the AFL website (due to be released Feb 2020, or in a portnight it seems)

 

[Andre]

The 'If Butcher Marshall NextYoungKPF isn't kicking 5 goals a game from game 1 they shouldn't be in the side!' are worse than the happy clappers IMO (where they don't overlap). The Happy clappers are deluded fools you can just write off as simple minded folk who just want the sugar hit of a game on the weekend and don't care about seasons or success really, as long as they get the theatre. The No-Butchers (as I'll keep referring to them as, though it's now 'Marshall doesn't do enough! Play Sam Gray!'), are worse. These people otherwise tend to know their football and will accept reasoned arguments, but have this massive blind spot they refuse to admit to. It's infuriating and frustrating trying to make them see reason, when usually they are people who will.

 

[GremioPower]

New year, so a new stats thread. I will start with a new stat. THE MDF. The Marshall Dixon Factor.

Marshall has played 20 games for 15 Wins and 5 Loses 75%. He has played 14 games with Dixon for 11 Wins and 3 Losses 78.5%.

Dixon has played 70 games for Ports for 39 wins and 31 loses 55.7%. Without Marshall he is 56 games 28 wins and 28 Losses 50%.

Since Marshall debuted, Dixon has played 18 games without Marshall for 8 Wins and 10 Losses 44.4%

I've read so many people's opinion on both Marshall and Dixon the last few months I thought I would look at when they play together.

For me there is a synergy argument - The whole is greater than the the sum of the parts - about them. People criticise Marshall, and he isn't above criticism, but they don't seem to, or can't look at the full 360 degree big picture. Our forwardline works better when they both play and you don't have Ken plonking Westhoff at CHF like he is polyfilla, filling up his near decade long forwardline crack, or Ryder forced to play as a KPF, when one of Marshall or Dixon is missing.

For those who aren't sure, IF = times delivered the ball Inside 50, CM = contested marks, MI = Marks inside 50, %P = % of game time played.

3 games lost - the overtime EF, against Essendon when Marshall was knocked out late in 2nd quarter and when we all played like shit against North last year.

View attachment 831708


View attachment 831711

View attachment 831712

Is there anything meaningful besides the W-L record? What am I missing here?

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It is true today and it has always been true even with different names.

A proper KPF structure is important.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Is there anything meaningful besides the W-L record? What am I missing here?

That's all I wanted to highlight. We win more when they play together than when they don't. It's not coincidence.

Play them both.

 

[Powerade 08]

3 games lost - the overtime EF, against Essendon when Marshall was knocked out late in 2nd quarter and when we all played like shit against North last year.

So we still lost whenever we played a team that wasn’t Auskick standard. Good stat.

 

[DaTBird187]

The Marshall Dixon Factor sounds like the name of one of those shitty millennial metal bands that look like Mayhem, but sound like Hanson.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So we still lost whenever we played a team that wasn’t Auskick standard. Good stat.

Yeah the reigning premier was auskick standard.

 

[Andre]

That's all I wanted to highlight. We win more when they play together than when they don't. It's not coincidence.

I wonder if any of these people unable to see Dixon + Marshall is greater than the sum of it's parts insist on eating only raw ingredients. Cause, you know, combining things can't possibly make it any tastier.

 

[agmsy]

Is there anything meaningful besides the W-L record? What am I missing here?

I reckon it would be interesting to perform an ANOVA (or multiple ANOVA if you want to look at multiple response variables). See how things change under different schemes: Dixon and Marshall, Dixon only, Marshall only, and neither of them.

I suspect the conclusion would be the same - Port is best off when we play Dixon and Marshall together. As others have said, this has more to do with the widely accepted idea that forwardlines perform better when they're comprised of competent forwards who demand the opposition's attention (instead of using pinch hitters or leaving one tall to be double- or triple-teamed).

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

No Marshall and No Dixon, 2 wins and 7 losses 22.2%. Only won against GC and Saints in China

 

[GremioPower]

47 games (25-22)
Neither: 2-7
One of Them: 12-12
Both: 11-3

 

[Port85]

I wonder if Georgiadis is sufficiently tall enough, or plays a style that would allow us to extract similar results in terms of structure.

It's difficult to see both of them playing in a 2 ruck set up but definitely possible in a 1 ruck scenario, at least in a Hinkley/Bassett era forward line.

 

[Chrizzt]

That's all I wanted to highlight. We win more when they play together than when they don't. It's not coincidence.

Play them both.

Probably jumping the gun a little with that statement. Sample size is still pretty small and it's a very rudimentary statistical view, hence why I wanted to dive further e.g. scores per i50 etc.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Probably jumping the gun a little with that statement. Sample size is still pretty small and it's a very rudimentary statistical view, hence why I wanted to dive further e.g. scores per i50 etc.

47 games with and without them is a big enough sample size.

 

[Andre]

Probably jumping the gun a little with that statement. Sample size is still pretty small and it's a very rudimentary statistical view, hence why I wanted to dive further e.g. scores per i50 etc.

1 KPF versus more than 1. We don't have to restrict it to just Port. Just looking at 2000 onwards and you'd be needing to go Fake News to a degree that'd embarrass Trump to argue a 1 KPF forward line is going to get you to a flag.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

1 KPF versus more than 1. We don't have to restrict it to just Port. Just looking at 2000 onwards and you'd be needing to go Fake News to a degree that'd embarrass Trump to argue a 1 KPF forward line is going to get you to a flag.

Richmond 1 KPF and 1 Ruck win 2017 GF by 48 points. 2019 2 KPFs and 2 Rucks win by 89 points, against arguably a more talented team on paper.

 

[Port85]

Interestingly we really dropped the ball (literally) in 2019 in regards to forward 50 ground ball gets, coming in at a league worst differential of -6.5

Considering our main strategy seems to be bomb it onto Dixon's head and he brings it to ground, this really sucks.

Really need to work on this or change up our forward mix quite a bit in 2020.

 

[Interstater]

Someone had to do it.
Dixon + Marshall + Georgiades = 100% win ratio

If we don't play Marshall and Dixon together as often as possible, well there's no words for that level of stupidity.

 

[Chrizzt]

1 KPF versus more than 1. We don't have to restrict it to just Port. Just looking at 2000 onwards and you'd be needing to go Fake News to a degree that'd embarrass Trump to argue a 1 KPF forward line is going to get you to a flag.

I'm not arguing for GFs, (however Bulldogs 2016 and Swans 2012 would be examples in that case) but I don't think the sample size is big enough to conclude that Marshall + Dixon = Win.

The final ladder position of our opponents in the matches Dixon/Marshall played together (losses in bold):
2017: 10, 17, 8
2018: 14, 6, 18, 7, 10, 9, 16
2019: 8, 15, 12, 13

Two wins against top 8 teams from four starts. Against Syd (6th) in 2018 and the Dons last year (8th). Only 4 matches to look at against top 8 teams, and none against top 4 teams.

Further, given that we have won against bottom 10 teams 75% of the time in the last 3 years I don't see how this data shows anything but the well-known conclusion that Port beat up on low-ranked teams.

Edit: I should also reiterate before people wet their pants, that I would like 2 KPFs in the team, probably even with a resting ruckman at times. I just think REH's conclusions are a little pre-mature

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Interesting graph On the Couch on Monday night.

All 16 teams in 2005 were able to convert at least 48% of there inside 50's to a score. Last year the best was GWS 46%.

Players have become so good at defending, plus the quality of inside 50's are poorer as well as pushing numbers back and general congestion have helped cause this.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

The EF against wet toast was a regular time draw. I feel like if you are going to compare finals to h&a games it has to be over the same time period.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Interesting graph On the Couch on Monday night.

All 16 teams in 2005 were able to convert at least 48% of there inside 50's to a score. Last year the best was GWS 46%.

Players have become so good at defending, plus the quality of inside 50's are poorer as well as pushing numbers back and general congestion have helped cause this.


View attachment 903845

Wow. That's an incredible stat.

No wonder the fans get frustrated.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Just heard this guy on SEN talk about some myths and current whiggism currently going on about the game. Made a good point about the over criticizing of kicking the ball backwards. Says Port do it the most to open up the other side of the ground.

Rob Harding
Longtime AFL Opposition Analyst and Strategy Coach (Ess/Adel/Geel/NM), Vic Metro U18 Assistant Coach (Midfield), Sports lover, terrible guitarist


Points for this season Port 1st, Collingwood 5th, Geelong 2nd.