2020 Trade & List Management discussion

[Kane McGoodwin]

Sydney have the equivalent of Laird already (Lloyd). They are actually pretty savage on him on their board.

Wow... would be happy to swap them.

 

[Mego Red]

Let me try this again. Both Bulldogs and GWS end up slightly better on the ladder than today.

Free Agents - Brad Crouch for first round compo (pick 2), Rory Atkins for end of 2nd round compo (pick 38).

Delist/Retire
David Mackay
Kyle Hartigan
Bryce Gibbs
Riley Knight
Elliott Himmelberg
Jordan Gallucci (to rookie)
(Kieran Strachan)
(Patrick Wilson)

Re-sign
Tyson Stengle
Myles Poholke

Re-rookie
Ayce Taylor
Ben Keays
Ben Crocker

Eight off the main list.

Picks before trading:
1, 2, 11, 20, 27, 38, 39, 51 (72, 74 currently unused)

Trade Rory Laird to Hawthorn for pick 16

Picks after trading players out:
1, 2, 11, 16, 20, 27, 38, 39, 51, 72

16 and 27 and 2021 3rd to Bulldogs for 8 and a promise not to bid
20 to GWS for Jackson Hately.
51 to Freo for Luke Valente.

Take to the draft
1, 2, 8, 11

for points for Edwards, Newchurch, Borlase
38, 39, 51, 72

Players in:
4 top 10 picks, Hately, Edwards, Valente, Newchurch, Borlase, delisted free agent.

 

[1990crow]

Let me try this again. Both Bulldogs and GWS end up slightly better on the ladder than today.

Free Agents - Brad Crouch for first round compo (pick 2), Rory Atkins for end of 2nd round compo (pick 38).

Delist/Retire
David Mackay
Kyle Hartigan
Bryce Gibbs
Riley Knight
Elliott Himmelberg
Jordan Gallucci (to rookie)
(Kieran Strachan)
(Patrick Wilson)

Re-sign
Tyson Stengle
Myles Poholke

Re-rookie
Ayce Taylor
Ben Keays
Ben Crocker

Eight off the main list.

Picks before trading:
1, 2, 11, 20, 27, 38, 39, 51 (72, 74 currently unused)

Trade Rory Laird to Hawthorn for pick 16

Picks after trading players out:
1, 2, 11, 16, 20, 27, 38, 39, 51, 72

16 and 27 and 2021 3rd to Bulldogs for 8 and a promise not to bid
20 to GWS for Jackson Hately.
51 to Freo for Luke Valente.

Take to the draft
1, 2, 8, 11

for points for Edwards, Newchurch, Borlase
38, 39, 51, 72

Players in:
4 top 10 picks, Hately, Edwards, Valente, Newchurch, Borlase, delisted free agent.

Where do I sign.
Not sure we need Valente though. Might end up a good player but think we have a lot of his type already.

 

[Mego Red]

Where do I sign.
Not sure we need Valente though. Might end up a good player but think we have a lot of his type already.

You might be right.

Just wanted to add another good quality local from that draft. You'd think Freo would be playing him if he was really going to offer something.

 

[1990crow]

You might be right.

Just wanted to add another good quality local from that draft. You'd think Freo would be playing him if he was really going to offer something.

I'm all for bringing SA players home but they have to be to improve the team.
Hately would add that tall mid option who can go forward.
Hayward would add that tall quick third forward option.
Coleman Jones may be a better ruck prospect than ROB.
Rankine and Lukosius for obvious reasons.
Fantasia because our forward line sucks.
Stephens because he's a gun winger.
Dumont because he's an experienced midfielder who could go to another level with more responsibility.
Scharenberg for a fresh start.
Maynard because he's a gun.
Francis because our KPD stocks aren't amazing.
Bailey because he's quality and young.

Someone like Valente doesn't really interest me worth trading for.

 

[CroCop]

Tough choices ahead. List sizes will make a huge impact.
Let's assume list sizes arent cut for argument sake and AFL wants a legit seconds team to be able to play each week.

Assume GWS finish 7th. And Dogs 10th.

I'd let Brad and Atkins walk to get the band one compo.
Trade Laird to Hawks for their first rounder.
Use pick 39 to match Newchurch.
Picks 52 onwards for Borlase.
Sydney likely to have pick 6? Go hard at that pick because their NGA player may well be above that pick and they will want to trade for points. Say pick 6 for Picks 16 and 21.
Use Dogs pick 28 as Luke Edwards points.

In: Pick 1 (Phillips), Pick 2 (Thilthorpe), Pick 6 (Hollands), Pick 12 (Poulter/mid/HF), Edwards, Newchurch, Borlase, Keays
8 senior list upgrades.

Out: Crouch, Knight, Atkins, Hartigan, Laird, Himmelburg, Wilson, Strachan, Mackay, Davis
8 senior list delisted, 2 rookie delisted.

Yes we lose experience in Laird, Crouch and Atkins.
But we gain so much potential long term.

Send this to list manager Reidy, he is so competent at his job that he may need your help.

 

[Thetrader15]

Free Agents - Brad Crouch for first round compo (pick 2), Rory Atkins for end of 2nd round compo (pick 38).

List numbers stay the same.

Delist/Retire
David Mackay
Kieran Strachan
Kyle Hartigan
Patrick Wilson
Riley Knight
Elliott Himmelberg
Jordan Gallucci (rookie)

Re-sign
Tyson Stengle
Myles Poholke

Re-rookie
Ayce Taylor
Ben Keays
Ben Crocker

Eight off the main list.

Picks before trading:
1, 2, 9, 20, 25, 38, 39, 51 (72, 74 currently unused)

Trade Rory Laird to Hawthorn for pick 16
Trade Bryce Gibbs and our fourth (72) to Carlton for their 3rd (pick 44) (if you think this is dumb, ignore it)

Picks after trading players out:
1, 2, 9, 16, 20, 25, 38, 39, 44, 51.

16 and 25 and 2021 3rd to Geelong for 11 and 32.
20 to GWS for Jackson Hately.
51 to Freo for Luke Valente.

Take to the draft
1, 2, 9, 11

for points for Edwards, Newchurch, Borlase
32, 38 39, 44

Players in:
4 top 11 picks, Hately, Edwards, Valente, Newchurch, Borlase, delisted free agent.

Nice work, but why do Geelong trade 11 and 32 for 16 and 25 + 2021/3?

 

[Mego Red]

Nice work, but why do Geelong trade 11 and 32 for 16 and 25 + 2021/3?

To be honest, they probably don't.

I DO think there will be clubs willing to move out of this draft, or split a pick in order to minimise risk, so there will be advantageous deals out there if you want to roll the dice.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

We are not getting a pick 2 compo (if we end up bottom) for Brad Crouch.

 

[Sidthehat]

We are not getting a pick 2 compo (if we end up bottom) for Brad Crouch.

It isn't just fans fantasy thinking we could get pick 2, Cal Twomey said would expect it on the AFL podcast. Is he worth it no, but nor was Frawley pick 3.

 

[Mego Red]

It isn't just fans fantasy thinking we could get pick 2, Cal Twomey said would expect it on the AFL podcast. Is he worth it no, but nor was Frawley pick 3.

You'll see a lot in the media start to suggest it now. It makes a great story. And people know he's better than what he's showing - he will offer a lot to a club, if all they need to do is outbid other rivals.

 

[Thetrader15]

You'll see a lot in the media start to suggest it now. It makes a great story. And people know he's better than what he's showing - he will offer a lot to a club, if all they need to do is outbid other rivals.

And the VFL is generally influenced by media too, so the more they keep banging on about it the better off we are.

That said, wait for Quitter Kane and Sam Manure et al come out and start to say he's not worth it and it should be an end of first round pick

 

[crows dude]

We are not getting a pick 2 compo (if we end up bottom) for Brad Crouch.

It will a first round compo which follows our pick. We finish bottom we get Pick 1 and 2.

 

[Betts are off]

And the VFL is generally influenced by media too, so the more they keep banging on about it the better off we are.

That said, wait for Quitter Kane and Sam Manure et al come out and start to say he's not worth it and it should be an end of first round pick

Regarding Brad, we also need to remember how his stat line looks after every game. Because you know most of these so called “Trade week experts” aren’t watching the Crows games as closely as we are (I’ll be willing to wager a lot of them wouldn’t even be watching the Crows games this year).

Bottom line is Brad finishes at the top of the disposal count every week for us, so for people who don’t watch the game, you would automatically think “well the Crows suck, but Brad Crouch is a gun”.

Couple that with the fact that he’s 11th in the league for total disposals (which will probably rise as the season progresses). If he’s in the top 10 for disposals in the AFL by trade week, it will be VERY hard to not give him $800K+. Especially considering his agent will be asking for closer to $1M

 

[Betts are off]

Bit of a left field scenario. What would you guys think of trading Rory Laird for Jackson Hately straight up? GWS have an excess of young talented mids which is keeping Jackson from getting regular games (and would likely continue to keep him from it), and although Rory Laird's is no longer shining for us, I do think his skillset would perfectly suit that GWS backline, and could see him return to his best footy.

I'll admit i'm not 100% sure how that trade would stack up value-wise. Rory has the runs on the board, but with every passing game as a Crow those runs seem further and further away. And Jackson hasn't played all that much, but having said that he is fighting for a spot in probably the most highly drafted midfield room in AFL history.

I could see it going through player for player (although those trades are as rare as hens teeth these days), but there could be arguments for steak knives on both sides.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

It will a first round compo which follows our pick. We finish bottom we get Pick 1 and 2.

You don't know what he potentially will be offered.
You dont know the length of a potential contract.
You dont know the secret formula the AFL use to calculate compo picks.

So it will be a first round based on what?

 

[Mego Red]

Bit of a left field scenario. What would you guys think of trading Rory Laird for Jackson Hately straight up? GWS have an excess of young talented mids which is keeping Jackson from getting regular games (and would likely continue to keep him from it), and although Rory Laird's is no longer shining for us, I do think his skillset would perfectly suit that GWS backline, and could see him return to his best footy.

I'll admit i'm not 100% sure how that trade would stack up value-wise. Rory has the runs on the board, but with every passing game as a Crow those runs seem further and further away. And Jackson hasn't played all that much, but having said that he is fighting for a spot in probably the most highly drafted midfield room in AFL history.

I could see it going through player for player (although those trades are as rare as hens teeth these days), but there could be arguments for steak knives on both sides.

I actually think, with Zach Williams leaving, GWS might be interested in this. They have Lochie Ash, but they also need to start winning now.

For me, I'd probably want Xavier O'Halloran in there as well, but it's very worth doing.

 

[Betts are off]

You don't know what he potentially will be offered.
You dont know the length of a potential contract.
You dont know the secret formula the AFL use to calculate compo picks.

So it will be a first round based on what?

I'm not sure if you realize this but you've painted yourself into bit of a logic corner with this argument. Because what you've just listed is a 2 way street of possibility which undermines both sides of this topic, not just his.

So unfortunately for you, your original (very definitive) statement of it absolutely not happening, is now equally countered by your own argument for it happening.

 

[Betts are off]

I actually think, with Zach Williams leaving, GWS might be interested in this. They have Lochie Ash, but they also need to start winning now.

For me, I'd probably want Xavier O'Halloran in there as well, but it's very worth doing.

For what its worth, i'd really like to see Laird get back to his best, and genuinely believe he can. But IMO his best footy is played in a well oiled machine where he can play as the sweeping QB distributor. And he just can't be that for the AFC in the foreseeable future.

GWS would be a great place for him to be that, especially with Lochie Ash and Whitfield providing the run and drive out of defense. He can sit back and play his midfielder of the back half role and set both of those guys up.

 

[Mego Red]

You don't know what he potentially will be offered.
You dont know the length of a potential contract.
You dont know the secret formula the AFL use to calculate compo picks.

So it will be a first round based on what?

Jesus, nothing is more pointless than people that post on the internet demanding that people give proof to back up their opinion.

This is such a dull, irrelevant post. None of us have proof and if we did we wouldn't be posting on internet forums.

Obviously, his opinion is that Brad Crouch will be offered a contract that will be valued by the AFL In the top 40 or so in the league, and that contract will be enough to get first round compensation.

The formula for compensation has been published in the Age, but it has caveats on it that allow the AFL to raise or lower compensation subjectively, based on their own criteria.

 

[Mego Red]

For what its worth, i'd really like to see Laird get back to his best, and genuinely believe he can. But IMO his best footy is played in a well oiled machine where he can play as the sweeping QB distributor. And he just can't be that for the AFC in the foreseeable future.

GWS would be a great place for him to be that, especially with Lochie Ash and Whitfield providing the run and drive out of defense. He can sit back and play his midfielder of the back half role and set both of those guys up.

Agreed. I think GWS would rather Whitfield a bit further up the ground as well. If they can get an AA level 26 year old for the cost of two players they're not playing, surely they do it.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

I'm not sure if you realize this but you've painted yourself into bit of a logic corner with this argument. Because what you've just listed is a 2 way street of possibility which undermines both sides of this topic, not just his.

So unfortunately for you, your original (very definitive) statement of it absolutely not happening, is now equally countered by your own argument for it happening.

Sure good points.
However my view is in the current environment Brad isnt getting a huge contract because of financial constraints clubs now face.....he's missed that boat.
What we do have some understanding around is that there seems to be some correlation to contract size and length....and age.
The other unknown is if the AFL will change the draft order because of a compromised season and also add their formula is pretty much a secret and they could make changes on the fly and we'd have no transparency on how or why.

So agree its difficult to be definative one way or the other but my opinion is there are more grey areas that tend to lean towards not getting pick 2.

 

[Thetrader15]

Agreed. I think GWS would rather Whitfield a bit further up the ground as well. If they can get an AA level 26 year old for the cost of two players they're not playing, surely they do it.

I'd take Xavier O'Halloran and Jye Cladwell for Laird and the dogs 2020/2. Then we can make a separate deal for Hately for our 2021/2 or tell him not to sign on and we get him back next year for a Hawks style 4th round pick

 

[Big Gazoongas]

Jesus, nothing is more pointless than people that post on the internet demanding that people give proof to back up their opinion.

This is such a dull, irrelevant post. None of us have proof and if we did we wouldn't be posting on internet forums.

Obviously, his opinion is that Brad Crouch will be offered a contract that will be valued by the AFL In the top 40 or so in the league, and that contract will be enough to get first round compensation.

The formula for compensation has been published in the Age, but it has caveats on it that allow the AFL to raise or lower compensation subjectively, based on their own criteria.

Dull boring and pointless......ironic you post this.

Just to point out to the Mega CEO, he said pick two not a generalised 1st round pick.
And you have pretty much confirmed the formula is secret by your last statement.

 

[Jarman3]

Picks before trading:
1, 2, 11, 20, 27, 38, 39, 51 (72, 74 currently unused)

Trade Rory Laird to Hawthorn for pick 16

Picks after trading players out:
1, 2, 11, 16, 20, 27, 38, 39, 51, 72

16 and 27 and 2021 3rd to Bulldogs for 8 and a promise not to bid

At which point the AFL steps in, says "that's the SECOND time you've been caught draft-tampering - we'll take those, thanks *yoink*" and we wave goodbye to picks 1, 2, 8, 11, and 20 as well as next year's 1st and 2nd rounders.