balmainforever
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AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
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Got him 4.5
2.5 in first game
0.5 in second game
1.5 third game
0 in 4th game
I'm pretty wary of forwards, they normally get votes for bags but a lot of the time its 2 or 1.
- Mar 27, 2018
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Petracca been getting smashed on the Fair. $7.60 and getting close to Dusty odds.
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Closed at $17 or so on there going into season opener Richmond and Carlton game and then went out to $25 after his round 1 game which he didn't even play bad in. Thought personally he may have snagged a vote or two from it and wouldn't be surprised to see it come Brownlow night. But pretty funny how reactive the markets can be going both ways.
Purely going on the eye test, Petracca is looking very good. Getting plenty of the ball, winning clearances, inside 50s and kicking goals. Melbourne have to keep winning but my early call would be that he's the one to beat.
Analysis Paralysis
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Similarly Macrae - averaging 35 touches a game in a winning team.
Way more to compete with tho at WBD. id Argue he doesn’t stand out as much as the others too.
Bont
Treloar
Dunkley
Hunter
Daniel
Forwards who kick bags
Tracc has
Oliver
Gawn
And occasionally someone else like viney
Might see tracc Oliver getting a lot of 3 & 2s
Bet365 sleeping on the adams injury
I’ve taken 50% Pendles 40% Steele 10% daicos
For profit if any win
Maybe just cashout too
I really think Steele sidebottom is the best value bet there $5.50 and a crazy vote poller when fit.
I’ve taken 50% Pendles 40% Steele 10% daicos
For profit if any win
Maybe just cashout too
I really think Steele sidebottom is the best value bet there $5.50 and a crazy vote poller when fit.
- Mar 27, 2018
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The beauty about Trac is he is competing for votes with a guy that is notorious for backchatting to umps.
In any 50:50 scenario where either Oliver or Trac could get 3, Trac is more likely on more occasions to get 3 just as a result of this.
don’t think this should be understimated. Probably helps explain why Brayshaw ridiculously over polled in 2018.
In any 50:50 scenario where either Oliver or Trac could get 3, Trac is more likely on more occasions to get 3 just as a result of this.
don’t think this should be understimated. Probably helps explain why Brayshaw ridiculously over polled in 2018.
No Danger odds for Top 10
$1.40 top 20 tho I think. Wouldn’t touch that in multis
- Mar 27, 2018
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top 20 odds are all hammered in
Still a few diamonds amongst the rocks.
Also, 11-12 votes won’t get you top 20 in any year but 2020.
BigInsideMid
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Interesting you say that, I thought the same last year (Had Bont and Macrae within only a couple of votes of each other). But here is the count from last year and they've only added in Treloar. Macrae must be doing something right in the umpires eyes.
Analysis Paralysis
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All very valid what people are writing re: Macrae. His avg vote per game of 0.88 doesn't get him the Brownlow, and Trac finished second last year and looks good again. And the Doggies look likely to lose less games, which does put pressure on Macrae polling maximums, he polled okay in losses last year. I also question whether it is a false dawn from Melbourne.
However, at this point in time Macrae looks a chance in the top 10, to win Bulldogs, and leader after 5 rounds type bets. I've got him ahead of Bont, like 2020 and 2018 and in 2019 they tied. Macrae just seems to be frequently forgotten - it must be hard to see him in the Bont's media shadow. And don't get me wrong, I'd pick the Bont in my "All-Australian" team almost regardless of his performances but Macrae picks up votes.
However, at this point in time Macrae looks a chance in the top 10, to win Bulldogs, and leader after 5 rounds type bets. I've got him ahead of Bont, like 2020 and 2018 and in 2019 they tied. Macrae just seems to be frequently forgotten - it must be hard to see him in the Bont's media shadow. And don't get me wrong, I'd pick the Bont in my "All-Australian" team almost regardless of his performances but Macrae picks up votes.
While all the top end guys have been smashed in on SB for Top 20 there’s still great value down the order. Parker at 3.25 and Wines at 4.75 for Top 20 are the value plays. Although after adding them into my multies with various combos, I’m now blocked in adding either to any of my top 20 multies.
Yep I’ve unloaded the self managed super on both these guys. Surely 1 of them gets in for a profit.
Parker = 5th last year and swans look to win more this year. With heeney out less competition - though mills buddy and young guys have a stepped up
Wines set to benefit from ports success they’ll probably go top 4 lots of wins. Boak and wines will do well
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Well done to the guys that got on the Top 10 & Top 20 odds early (especially Danger), but all I'm taking from this is that there may not be the normal fill up come the end of the year as the markets will be well exposed.
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- Mar 27, 2018
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Careful having that Bet ID posted..
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updated without it! ty
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