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Post Caulfield Cup rankings
1A. GOLD TRIP - Really good run in the Caulfield Cup beating everything bar the winner heading this way comfortably. Expect Flemington to suit him a lot better and presume he meets WAF slightly better at the weights now heading there. Has the class and is already proven running out a strong 2 miles in the Melbourne Cup. All going to be weather dependent as to whether he is the top seed or not. If the track has give in it then it really improves his chances and puts the slows on his main rivals.
1B. WITHOUT A FIGHT - Brilliant winner of the Caulfield Cup. Had a couple lengths on Gold Trip and 5 lengths + on everything else heading this way so very hard to see anything else bar GT being able to turn the tables at Flemington. Technically he is unproven at the trip but with 2800m form in England the expectation is that shouldn't be a problem out here. His wheels don't spin on a wet surface though so if we have a soft track then its almost rule a line territory. Firm track though and he is the one to beat.
3. SOULCOMBE - Complete barrier rogue. Walked out 8 lengths behind them in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well considering. Made up good ground in that race through the 800-600 and was on the back of WAF and GT but then got crowded for a bit of room in the straight before plugging home reasonably. I think 2 miles at Flemington will suit him perfectly and that was a decent Cup trial all things considered but he is just consistently s**t at the barriers and is just getting worse so no reason to think he wont miss the kick poorly at Flemington again and have to pass the whole field.
4. VAUBAN - Valiant King didn't exactly frank the form at Caulfield but he finished around these sort of horses and Vauban did beat him pretty comfortably by a couple lengths so would expect him to be in this sort of area still.
5. BREAKUP - Average at best Caulfield Cup run and he just didnt seem fast enough or good enough to sustain speed over 2400m. I expect the bigger Flemington track and the 2 miles to both be better suited for him but not by enough to be able to make up the difference on those already rated ahead of him.
Doesn't seem any point in going beyond this for winning chances for me. It was a strong Caulfield Cup and that is THE form race for Flemington with the other lead ups looking pretty lackluster. For the sake of looking deeper ill just round out the list with the best roughies for the back end of exotics.
ASHRUN - Currently $120 was one of the better runs out of the Bart Cummings. Off the scene for pretty much 2 years his first up run this prep was really good sitting 3WNC and getting beat 3.75L over 1700m. Backed that up in the Bart Cummings running on really well from last clocking the best last 800, 600 and 400 whilst giving away 5kg to the first two.
DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR - Currently $101. As previously stated in this thread he is basically on the same prep as last year where he ran a credible 6th in the Cup and gets in nice and light in the weights. His 3200m form in this country is good and generally runs above market expectations when getting out to a trip so can see him running past some more tired horses at the end.
SPANISH MISSION - Currently $65. As said above he had been pegged as an out and out 2 miler since he got here and he has had 6 runs since that Spring for 5 goes at 2000m or less and one go at 2400m on a wet track which he doesn't go on. He is older, locally trained and had injuries so obviously not near his best but he has a lot more class potential than anything else in the dregs and his last start Turnbull 8th has a lot of merit crossing the line with most of these types.
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - Currently $55. Had no luck in the Bart Cummings when running into traffic everywhere. Think he finishes considerably closer with luck and meets most of that field better of fat the weights should they meet again at Flemington.
MORE FELONS - Currently $300. For the plays tall believers. Yet to be seen but on his European form he isn't really any worse off than a lot of others also making up the numbers and he is a considerably better price than most of them. He will stay the 2 miles no problems and gets in light at the weights. For comparison he took on Absurde in the Ebor in their last race start before coming here and he was 14/1 vs 7/1 in that race carrying basically a kilo more and now meets him 3.5kg better off for a 3 length defeat in that race so I think id rather spec MF at 15x the price.
Trouble with a lot of the roughies though is they are on the day F4 add ons and if they run well before the Cup the odds will likely be gone and if they run like s**t you probably dont want to be with them...
1A. GOLD TRIP - Really good run in the Caulfield Cup beating everything bar the winner heading this way comfortably. Expect Flemington to suit him a lot better and presume he meets WAF slightly better at the weights now heading there. Has the class and is already proven running out a strong 2 miles in the Melbourne Cup. All going to be weather dependent as to whether he is the top seed or not. If the track has give in it then it really improves his chances and puts the slows on his main rivals.
1B. WITHOUT A FIGHT - Brilliant winner of the Caulfield Cup. Had a couple lengths on Gold Trip and 5 lengths + on everything else heading this way so very hard to see anything else bar GT being able to turn the tables at Flemington. Technically he is unproven at the trip but with 2800m form in England the expectation is that shouldn't be a problem out here. His wheels don't spin on a wet surface though so if we have a soft track then its almost rule a line territory. Firm track though and he is the one to beat.
3. SOULCOMBE - Complete barrier rogue. Walked out 8 lengths behind them in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well considering. Made up good ground in that race through the 800-600 and was on the back of WAF and GT but then got crowded for a bit of room in the straight before plugging home reasonably. I think 2 miles at Flemington will suit him perfectly and that was a decent Cup trial all things considered but he is just consistently s**t at the barriers and is just getting worse so no reason to think he wont miss the kick poorly at Flemington again and have to pass the whole field.
4. VAUBAN - Valiant King didn't exactly frank the form at Caulfield but he finished around these sort of horses and Vauban did beat him pretty comfortably by a couple lengths so would expect him to be in this sort of area still.
5. BREAKUP - Average at best Caulfield Cup run and he just didnt seem fast enough or good enough to sustain speed over 2400m. I expect the bigger Flemington track and the 2 miles to both be better suited for him but not by enough to be able to make up the difference on those already rated ahead of him.
Doesn't seem any point in going beyond this for winning chances for me. It was a strong Caulfield Cup and that is THE form race for Flemington with the other lead ups looking pretty lackluster. For the sake of looking deeper ill just round out the list with the best roughies for the back end of exotics.
ASHRUN - Currently $120 was one of the better runs out of the Bart Cummings. Off the scene for pretty much 2 years his first up run this prep was really good sitting 3WNC and getting beat 3.75L over 1700m. Backed that up in the Bart Cummings running on really well from last clocking the best last 800, 600 and 400 whilst giving away 5kg to the first two.
DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR - Currently $101. As previously stated in this thread he is basically on the same prep as last year where he ran a credible 6th in the Cup and gets in nice and light in the weights. His 3200m form in this country is good and generally runs above market expectations when getting out to a trip so can see him running past some more tired horses at the end.
SPANISH MISSION - Currently $65. As said above he had been pegged as an out and out 2 miler since he got here and he has had 6 runs since that Spring for 5 goes at 2000m or less and one go at 2400m on a wet track which he doesn't go on. He is older, locally trained and had injuries so obviously not near his best but he has a lot more class potential than anything else in the dregs and his last start Turnbull 8th has a lot of merit crossing the line with most of these types.
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - Currently $55. Had no luck in the Bart Cummings when running into traffic everywhere. Think he finishes considerably closer with luck and meets most of that field better of fat the weights should they meet again at Flemington.
MORE FELONS - Currently $300. For the plays tall believers. Yet to be seen but on his European form he isn't really any worse off than a lot of others also making up the numbers and he is a considerably better price than most of them. He will stay the 2 miles no problems and gets in light at the weights. For comparison he took on Absurde in the Ebor in their last race start before coming here and he was 14/1 vs 7/1 in that race carrying basically a kilo more and now meets him 3.5kg better off for a 3 length defeat in that race so I think id rather spec MF at 15x the price.
Trouble with a lot of the roughies though is they are on the day F4 add ons and if they run well before the Cup the odds will likely be gone and if they run like s**t you probably dont want to be with them...
Enjoy the big win!
