Racing Melbourne Cup 2023 ( no after the fact posts)

[Jugada]

Post Caulfield Cup rankings

1A. GOLD TRIP - Really good run in the Caulfield Cup beating everything bar the winner heading this way comfortably. Expect Flemington to suit him a lot better and presume he meets WAF slightly better at the weights now heading there. Has the class and is already proven running out a strong 2 miles in the Melbourne Cup. All going to be weather dependent as to whether he is the top seed or not. If the track has give in it then it really improves his chances and puts the slows on his main rivals.

1B. WITHOUT A FIGHT - Brilliant winner of the Caulfield Cup. Had a couple lengths on Gold Trip and 5 lengths + on everything else heading this way so very hard to see anything else bar GT being able to turn the tables at Flemington. Technically he is unproven at the trip but with 2800m form in England the expectation is that shouldn't be a problem out here. His wheels don't spin on a wet surface though so if we have a soft track then its almost rule a line territory. Firm track though and he is the one to beat.

3. SOULCOMBE - Complete barrier rogue. Walked out 8 lengths behind them in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well considering. Made up good ground in that race through the 800-600 and was on the back of WAF and GT but then got crowded for a bit of room in the straight before plugging home reasonably. I think 2 miles at Flemington will suit him perfectly and that was a decent Cup trial all things considered but he is just consistently s**t at the barriers and is just getting worse so no reason to think he wont miss the kick poorly at Flemington again and have to pass the whole field.

4. VAUBAN - Valiant King didn't exactly frank the form at Caulfield but he finished around these sort of horses and Vauban did beat him pretty comfortably by a couple lengths so would expect him to be in this sort of area still.

5. BREAKUP - Average at best Caulfield Cup run and he just didnt seem fast enough or good enough to sustain speed over 2400m. I expect the bigger Flemington track and the 2 miles to both be better suited for him but not by enough to be able to make up the difference on those already rated ahead of him.

Doesn't seem any point in going beyond this for winning chances for me. It was a strong Caulfield Cup and that is THE form race for Flemington with the other lead ups looking pretty lackluster. For the sake of looking deeper ill just round out the list with the best roughies for the back end of exotics.

ASHRUN - Currently $120 was one of the better runs out of the Bart Cummings. Off the scene for pretty much 2 years his first up run this prep was really good sitting 3WNC and getting beat 3.75L over 1700m. Backed that up in the Bart Cummings running on really well from last clocking the best last 800, 600 and 400 whilst giving away 5kg to the first two.

DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR - Currently $101. As previously stated in this thread he is basically on the same prep as last year where he ran a credible 6th in the Cup and gets in nice and light in the weights. His 3200m form in this country is good and generally runs above market expectations when getting out to a trip so can see him running past some more tired horses at the end.

SPANISH MISSION - Currently $65. As said above he had been pegged as an out and out 2 miler since he got here and he has had 6 runs since that Spring for 5 goes at 2000m or less and one go at 2400m on a wet track which he doesn't go on. He is older, locally trained and had injuries so obviously not near his best but he has a lot more class potential than anything else in the dregs and his last start Turnbull 8th has a lot of merit crossing the line with most of these types.

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - Currently $55. Had no luck in the Bart Cummings when running into traffic everywhere. Think he finishes considerably closer with luck and meets most of that field better of fat the weights should they meet again at Flemington.

MORE FELONS - Currently $300. For the plays tall believers. Yet to be seen but on his European form he isn't really any worse off than a lot of others also making up the numbers and he is a considerably better price than most of them. He will stay the 2 miles no problems and gets in light at the weights. For comparison he took on Absurde in the Ebor in their last race start before coming here and he was 14/1 vs 7/1 in that race carrying basically a kilo more and now meets him 3.5kg better off for a 3 length defeat in that race so I think id rather spec MF at 15x the price.


Trouble with a lot of the roughies though is they are on the day F4 add ons and if they run well before the Cup the odds will likely be gone and if they run like s**t you probably dont want to be with them...

 

[Jugada]

Without a Fight the obvious one already here after today but probably not going to be a betting option anymore until race day. Still better than the March/April staying champs on the same line though who I fully expect to be 40s+ at some point

 

[iluvparis]

Plus legless wet which kills it from an antepost perspective

 

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There’s an arb on Vauban…$100 with Sportsbet, layable at $60 on Betfair.

Mullins hurdler nom’d for the Copper Horse Stakes and possibly heading to the Ebor.

 

[Jugada]

Barring vets looks one that would likely end up out here given the races they are aiming at this prep, the fact they mentioned going to this years Melbourne Cup last year and the fact connections have already brought Max Dynamite and Thomas Hobson out here before

 

[plays tall 1]

Barring vets looks one that would likely end up out here given the races they are aiming at this prep, the fact they mentioned going to this years Melbourne Cup last year and the fact connections have already brought Max Dynamite and Thomas Hobson out here before

There’s been a solid flow of money for him on Betfair too, which is often a clue as to intentions.

 

[iluvparis]

It’s a back to lay prop only if you want to tie up a whole lot of funds on betfair later down the line. It couldn’t win if it started today

 

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It’s a back to lay prop only if you want to tie up a whole lot of funds on betfair later down the line. It couldn’t win if it started today

Vauban has only had 5 races on the flat, the last of those being in a low grade French stakes race in July 2021, when he was a 3 year old. He won that race. Surely he was still then open to improvement.

I find it very hard to assess hurdlers. But Willie Mullins has been close with the few that he has brought down here so I respect his judgment:

• Max Dynamite (2nd and 3rd)
• Simenon (4th)
• Thomas Hobson (6th)

The race this year (as was the case last year) is likely to have reduced international participation, and hence be a weaker field than those 3 Mullins horses faced. Given the vet checks, it seems unlikely that Applebly and Aiden O’Brien will be back.

One thing we can be sure of is that Vauban will get the 2 mile trip, which most horses don’t.

Vauban needs to qualify and lift his rating to make the field.

Obviously there are doubts around the form but I certainly wouldn’t discount him at this stage. The next few runs will reveal plenty. But as it stands it’s an easy risk free bet to have given the arb..

 

[iluvparis]

Vauban has only had 5 races on the flat, the last of those being in a low grade French stakes race in July 2021, when he was a 3 year old. He won that race. Surely he was still then open to improvement.

I find it very hard to assess hurdlers. But Willie Mullins has been close with the few that he has brought down here so I respect his judgment:

• Max Dynamite (2nd and 3rd)
• Simenon (4th)
• Thomas Hobson (6th)

The race this year (as was the case last year) is likely to have reduced international participation, and hence be a weaker field than those 3 Mullins horses faced. Given the vet checks, it seems unlikely that Applebly and Aiden O’Brien will be back.

One thing we can be sure of is that Vauban will get the 2 mile trip, which most horses don’t.

Vauban needs to qualify and lift his rating to make the field.

Obviously there are doubts around the form but I certainly wouldn’t discount him at this stage. The next few runs will reveal plenty. But as it stands it’s an easy risk free bet to have given the arb..

Yes out of those only MD went anywhere near winning. He also had Wicklow Brave beaten out of sight on at least one occasion. This horse will not be winning a Melbourne Cup - that plus the fact he needs to do something to get in makes him a back to lay proposition only - and probably only on betfair so you don't have to have the money tied up.

If you are sure they will get the 2 mile trip they are generally too slow once they get over here.

 

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Yes out of those only MD went anywhere near winning. He also had Wicklow Brave beaten out of sight on at least one occasion. This horse will not be winning a Melbourne Cup - that plus the fact he needs to do something to get in makes him a back to lay proposition only - and probably only on betfair so you don't have to have the money tied up.

If you are sure they will get the 2 mile trip they are generally too slow once they get over here.

Vauban now into $51 with Sportsbet so the opportunity’s gone.

Not sure I follow your point about only backing and laying on Betfair - the $101 was available only with Sportsbet, nobody on Betfair’s offering that price to back the horse.

The other advantage of backing a horse with the corporates in a before noms (or better still Futures Insurance if Sportsbet offer that this year) is that if the horse isn’t nom’d you get a refund of your own back bet stake and don’t have to refund the lay bet stake on Betfair.

 

[iluvparis]

Vauban now into $51 with Sportsbet so the opportunity’s gone.

Not sure I follow your point about only backing and laying on Betfair - the $101 was available only with Sportsbet, nobody on Betfair’s offering that price to back the horse.

The other advantage of backing a horse with the corporates in a before noms (or better still Futures Insurance if Sportsbet offer that this year) is that if the horse isn’t nom’d you get a refund of your own back bet stake and don’t have to refund the lay bet stake on Betfair.

The point is to arb it you are backing it at sportsbet at $100 and tying up a metric ton of funds on betfair laying it back at 60s

That doesn’t happen if both legs are on betfair

 

[Jugada]

From the article Paris posted in the Cox Plate thread RE Without a Fight.

"The Melbourne Cup is a little less likely unless he was thriving and running well in either of those races, but the two miles might just be a little query," he said.

Crazy comments for mine

 

[iluvparis]

From the article Paris posted in the Cox Plate thread RE Without a Fight.

"The Melbourne Cup is a little less likely unless he was thriving and running well in either of those races, but the two miles might just be a little query," he said.

Crazy comments for mine

Gold trip board - I reckon he will run in everything

 

[tombomb]

I have zero idea about the international form, but Charlie Fellows just saying on racing.com that they are possible with Grand Alliance. Would only run in the cup if it came.

 

[iluvparis]

I have zero idea about the international form, but Charlie Fellows just saying on racing.com that they are possible with Grand Alliance. Would only run in the cup if it came.

Has a decent enough profile, particularly if he could scrape in right down the bottom of the weights.

 

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Nice position for those who took the arb on Vauban

 

[iluvparis]

And now the lay of the millenium if you’ve got anything left in your betfair account having to lay it at $60 a week a go

 

[plays tall 1]

And now the lay of the millenium if you’ve got anything left in your betfair account having to lay it at $60 a week a go

Don’t worry, the lay price continued to fall substantially right up to the race

He still needs to qualify but with plenty of stakes races to come (including the usual soft targets like the Kilternan Stakes and Ballyroan Stakes) that should be a formality.

His rating was 101 before the race, he’ll need to elevate that but this 7.5 length win may have taken care of that.

If he’s the lay of the millennium, I trust he won’t be finding his way into your power rankings at any stage.

 

[dontlimitme]

vauban gonna be the deauville cat of this year

 

[iluvparis]

Don’t worry, the lay price continued to fall substantially right up to the race

He still needs to qualify but with plenty of stakes races to come (including the usual soft targets like the Kilternan Stakes and Ballyroan Stakes) that should be a formality.

His rating was 101 before the race, he’ll need to elevate that but this 7.5 length win may have taken care of that.

If he’s the lay of the millennium, I trust he won’t be finding his way into your power rankings at any stage.

He might sneak into an 8-10 slot due to the total lack of depth but the older handicap path is never the right form. It won’t change this year.

It’s also irrelevant if the lay price keeps coming in if you’ve arbing as you had to lay the $60 the time the bet was placed

If anyone backed to lay they have done well but you should be laying it all back right here at rock bottom

 

[Jugada]

Great run by Saint George in the Queens Vase behind Gregory. Will be coming here but just a matter of if they put him away til the Autumn or have a crack at the Cup

 

[Jugada]

Frankie coming down presumably to ride Vauban

 

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Frankie coming down presumably to ride Vauban

Would prefer Ryan Moore but maybe Aiden’s thinking of returning. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was considering a horse like Changingoftheguard for the trip - he’s qualified and his rating would get him into the field.

 

[iluvparis]

Aiden ain't returning. Moore has only won 1 more than Dettori anyway

 

[dontlimitme]

bring down siskany appleby you coward

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Frankie coming down presumably to ride Vauban

Depends what Hudson Conway has available for him