AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal

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Geeves Train

Team Captain
Mar 24, 2008
488
403
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
$13 and $3

I can already cash out for 2.5k profit they’ve shortened the odds
Well played. Was looking at sportsbet odds and couldn’t figure out why you would have bet at $1.30!! Also, saw Lads\Neds market but by that stage Wines was $1.28 although you could see he’d opened $2.50 as he was still listed between 2 players at $2.50 haha
 

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burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
4,985
9,507
AFL Club
Adelaide
Tex favourite for Crows.

Forwards traditionally underpoll. He's as much chance of being on 4 as 9 right now

Laird 2.25 looks fantastic imo but outside the box, Sholl will rack up disposals and is a good ball user. Could stand out to umpires moving forward and Keays is racking them up + nice hair. Umpires will notice that

Either way, I wouldn't be backing Tex to win our votes. Also has a calf complaint, I'd expect he misses games yet too
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
40,286
33,167
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Tex favourite for Crows.

Forwards traditionally underpoll. He's as much chance of being on 4 as 9 right now

Laird 2.25 looks fantastic imo but outside the box, Sholl will rack up disposals and is a good ball user. Could stand out to umpires moving forward and Keayts is racking them up + nice hair. Umpires will notice that

Either way, I wouldn't be backing Tex to win our votes. Also has a calf complaint, I'd expect he misses games yet too
Could end up similar at Carlton with Walsh v McKay
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,037
6,978
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
liking these 2 for value on 365..
Keays $26 - $8 on SB looks more accurate, been really good so far and to my eye he stands out in games, something about him.
Greenwood $17 - $4.50 on SB, won it last year after polling really well, always doing the hard stuff getting the umps attention.

Should be really nice cash outs later in the season
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
399
573
AFL Club
Fremantle
liking these 2 for value on 365..
Keays $26 - $8 on SB looks more accurate, been really good so far and to my eye he stands out in games, something about him.
Greenwood $17 - $4.50 on SB, won it last year after polling really well, always doing the hard stuff getting the umps attention.

Should be really nice cash outs later in the season
Problem is 365 don't give profit if you cash out, they just give you your money back if the odds have shortened or stayed the same; or in the event they've gone out they tax you less than what SB and others do to make up for it.
 

jack1231

Senior List
Oct 13, 2020
278
190
AFL Club
Geelong
Problem is 365 don't give profit if you cash out, they just give you your money back if the odds have shortened or stayed the same; or in the event they've gone out they tax you less than what SB and others do to make up for it.
No I’m sure they cashout for profits ...? Odds need to reduce a significant % though
 

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Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
399
573
AFL Club
Fremantle
No I’m sure they cashout for profits ...? Odds need to reduce a significant % though
Oh, ok then, my mistake then.

My experience with them had been nothing that had come in had reduced and I bet on stuff that came in quite a bit.

Bet on a UFC fight where the guy's odds came in by just under 25% and the cashout didn't change, and I reckon I had a AFL futures bet this year that I bet at $11 and the cashout didn't change when the odds were at around $8.

It definitely isn't proportionate to how they change when the odds go out.

What kind of odds change have you had and what has the change to the cashout been?
 

jack1231

Senior List
Oct 13, 2020
278
190
AFL Club
Geelong
Oh, ok then, my mistake then.

My experience with them had been nothing that had come in had reduced and I bet on stuff that came in quite a bit.

Bet on a UFC fight where the guy's odds came in by just under 25% and the cashout didn't change, and I reckon I had a AFL futures bet this year that I bet at $11 and the cashout didn't change when the odds were at around $8.

It definitely isn't proportionate to how they change when the odds go out.

What kind of odds change have you had and what has the change to the cashout been?
I’m on Mundy $101 and it’s into $41 still not + cashout.

My bulldogs top 8 bet @ 1.14
Is cashing out for + 4% ROI
Current odds are like 1.06 I think

Anyway definitely cashout for profit just needs to come in enough
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
399
573
AFL Club
Fremantle
I’m on Mundy $101 and it’s into $41 still not + cashout.

My bulldogs top 8 bet @ 1.14
Is cashing out for + 4% ROI
Current odds are like 1.06 I think

Anyway definitely cashout for profit just needs to come in enough
Perhaps it's only applicable to certain markets then?

If Mundy's odds have come in by 60% and they still haven't changed then I'm not sure what more it's going to take.

Just be careful what you bet on if you're betting mainly thinking "cashout" because I made a bet on the rising star and the players odds have not changed from when I placed the bet and my $45 bet has continued to offer a $4.50 cashout option ever since. So maybe it is market dependent.

Actually, now I've just remembered...

I bet a UFC parlay that was offering 10 times or so what I put down on it going into the final leg, but that is the only time I have ever seen the cashout move favourably for me, and the bet had gone in-play so not really applicable to bets where the immediately deciding event on the outcome is still a period away from happening.
 

jack1231

Senior List
Oct 13, 2020
278
190
AFL Club
Geelong
My Ziebel most Roos votes @$26 at the start of the season is now cashing out for 400% ROI 👌
Which I am happy to take
Also sholl most Adelaide votes @$67 I will cash that out too.
Lesson for next year, take some of the high odds in team votes as they often shorten

Walker most Adelaide votes @$17 is paying out $9 odds... tempting to just take that and run too
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,037
6,978
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I like to put on 2 bets for the same bet -often more than what I actually want to stake so that I can ride one out and cash the other so I get a free roll or even a small profit
 

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