AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[offthebusgus]

Disagree

0.45 votes per game pre punch
0.53 votes per game post punch

 

[jack1231]

0.45 votes per game pre punch
0.53 votes per game post punch

His whole career pre punch??? That won’t tell you anything...

Pre punch 2018 - 16 votes
Post punch 2019 - 13 votes
Post punch 2020 - 8 votes

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

 

[SirBont]

3 T Kelly


2 A Gaff


1 T Mitchell





3 Bont


2 Jacob Weitering

1 J Bruce




3 H McCluggage


2 D Rich


1 J Lyons

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

View attachment 1122886

View attachment 1122887

View attachment 1122888

I’m following your votes but you really gave Mitchell 2 votes and Kelly none? You need to rewatch the game. The Hawks were deplorable.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Bont now favourite

Hilarious

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

I’m following your votes but you really gave Mitchell 2 votes and Kelly none? You need to rewatch the game. The Hawks were deplorable.

I thought Kelly was big in the first half which is where the game was won, he didn’t see much of it in the second half. I might have to analyse it a bit more.

 

[mookieb]

Cunnington into $2 at b365 for most Roos votes

60% cashout if you got the $4.

Probably gonna just let the rest ride

I jumped on Hall most votes at $21 and saw Cunnington at $4. Was thinking about him as well but he does have some injury issues.

NM total should be really low and Hall has been racking up 30+ over last couple of weeks out of half back. Stands out and has been getting a lot of meters gained whilst playing very well (coaches votes last 2 weeks). Do people have him as a real chance or does playing off half back too much of a detriment?

 

[burge13]

I jumped on Hall most votes at $21 and saw Cunnington at $4. Was thinking about him as well but he does have some injury issues.

NM total should be really low and Hall has been racking up 30+ over last couple of weeks out of half back. Stands out and has been getting a lot of meters gained whilst playing very well (coaches votes last 2 weeks). Do people have him as a real chance or does playing off half back too much of a detriment?

Does no votes polled get your money back?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

1. Mundy - 12
2. McCluggage - 11
3. Wines - 10
Gawn/Macrae/Boak - 9
Bont/Walker - 8


Last year correctly predicted the order of the top 5

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

I've tortured the data I've got, averaged this, simulated that, and this is where my Brownlow stands. For fun I've thrown in North Melbourne into the leaderboard too.

1​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jack	10.1​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Ollie	9.8​
3​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	9.8​
4​	Brisbane Lions	McCluggage, Hugh	9.2​
5​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	9.0​
6​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	8.5​
7​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	8.0​
8​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	7.9​
9​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	7.2​
10​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	7.0​
11​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	6.7​
12​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	6.7​
13​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	6.6​
14​	Essendon	Merrett, Zach	6.6​
15​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	6.4​
16​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	6.1​
17​	Geelong	Duncan, Mitch	5.9​
	North Melbourne		5.8​
18​	West Coast	Gaff, Andrew	5.7​
19​	West Coast	Kelly, Tim	5.6​
20​	Hawthorn	OMeara, Jaeger	5.4​
21​	St Kilda	Steele, Jack	5.3​
22​	Greater Western Sydney	Hopper, Jacob	5.3​
23​	Greater Western Sydney	Greene, Toby	5.2​
24​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	5.2​
25​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	5.1​
26​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	5.0​
27​	Brisbane Lions	Lyons, Jarryd	4.9​
28​	Western Bulldogs	Dunkley, Josh	4.9​
29​	West Coast	Sheed, Dom	4.5​
30​	Fremantle	Fyfe, Nat	4.5​

 

[ordinarypunter]

Round 1

round 2

round 3

round 4

round 5

round 6

round 7

round 8

round 9

round 10

round 11

round 12

round 13

r14

Round 15

r16

r17

rd18

total

Oliver

2.13​

2.88​

1.5​

1.19​

1​

0.14​

2.81​

11.65​

mcluggage BL

1.63​

1.25​

2.93​

2.93​

1.5​

10.24​

mundy FREO

2.44​

1.5​

2.69​

3​

0.21​

0.06​

9.90​

bont WB

0.75​

2.81​

2.81​

0.43​

3​

9.80​

Macrae WB

1.63​

2.06​

0.13​

2.06​

0.44​

2.86​

0.14​

0.38​

9.70​

Petracca

0.75​

1.19​

1.25​

3​

0.38​

2.93​

0.19​

9.69​

wines PA

0.69​

2​

1.06​

2.44​

2.43​

0.79​

9.41​

Boak PORT

2.94​

0.31​

2.63​

0.38​

0.21​

2.63​

9.10​

Walker

2.94​

2.25​

3​

8.19​

guthrie GEEL

0.25​

0.56​

3​

1.79​

1.71​

0.81​

8.12​

merrett ESS

0.81​

2.13​

1.69​

0.64​

0.29​

2.38​

7.94​

Miller GC

2.25​

0.38​

2.57​

1.36​

1.13​

7.69​

gaff WC

2.31​

0.63​

1.86​

2.81​

7.61​

Walsh Car

1.06​

1.13​

0.81​

1.36​

3​

7.36​

D Martin RICH

3.00​

2.94​

1.19​

7.13​

gawn MELB

0.06​

2.94​

0.88​

3​

6.88​

steele STK

1.38​

0.25​

2.81​

2.14​

6.58​

Mills SYD

2.69​

2.06​

0.31​

1.31​

6.37​

taranto GWS

0.75​

0.13​

1​

2.64​

1.75​

6.27​

laird adel

2.06​

0.13​

0.5​

2.25​

0.19​

0.14​

0.81​

6.08​

Parish ess

2.31​

3​

0.14​

0.44​

5.89​

Greene GWS

0.94​

3​

0.25​

0.93​

0.75​

5.87​

mitchell haw

2.81​

1.06​

1.13​

0.75​

5.75​

KELLY WC

1.00​

0.56​

3​

1.06​

5.62​

treloar WB

2​

1.94​

0.5​

1​

5.44​

sheed WC

2.50​

0.25​

0.06​

1.13​

0.14​

1.13​

5.21​

Fyfe FRE(

0.25​

0.13​

2.69​

0.13​

1.36​

0.63​

5.19​

brayshaw FREO

0.50​

2.56​

1.88​

0.14​

0.07​

5.15​

Duncan GEEL

1.56​

3​

0.29​

4.85​

 

[jack1231]

Bet365 has tampered with its 100% cash out in the last week or so.

No longer getting 100% back for odds that have shortened. A few weeks ago for the same bets I was.

Just FYI

 

[jack1231]

1. Mundy - 12
2. McCluggage - 11
3. Wines - 10
Gawn/Macrae/Boak - 9
Bont/Walker - 8


Last year correctly predicted the order of the top 5

What’s Oliver on for you?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

What’s Oliver on for you?

6

I've also been taking note of the club board votes. Just gives a better 'broader' opinion as to who played well. A larger sample size is more likely to hit right on the umpires votes than just my opinion. Oliver is about 7th in votes on the Melbourne board. Understandably they will give forwards and defenders more of a look, but just food for thought

 

[jack1231]

6

I've also been taking note of the club board votes. Just gives a better 'broader' opinion as to who played well. A larger sample size is more likely to hit right on the umpires votes than just my opinion. Oliver is about 7th in votes on the Melbourne board. Understandably they will give forwards and defenders more of a look, but just food for thought

Ok and is that what you did last year to get top 5 in correct order?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Ok and is that what you did last year to get top 5 in correct order?

Yes

A combination of watching games, checking the club board votes, and also checking coaches votes

 

[Sausage Legs]

Yes

A combination of watching games, checking the club board votes, and also checking coaches votes

Hence the name

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

1. Mundy - 12
2. McCluggage - 11
3. Wines - 10
Gawn/Macrae/Boak - 9
Bont/Walker - 8


Last year correctly predicted the order of the top 5

The real test is - what did you have Menegola on?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

The real test is - what did you have Menegola on?

0. The game he was closest to polling I had Cunnington from the Roos with 1

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

If you're talking about last year this is what I had for the Cats

My pick/(what they really polled)

1. Guthrie - 14
2. Dangerfield - 13 (15)
3. Hawkins - 11
4. Menegola - 10 (5)
5. Duncan - 7 (5)
6. Selwood - 3
7. Rohan - 3
8. Stanley - 2 (0)
9. Miers - 2 (3)
10. Ablett - 1
11. Stewart - 1

 

[jikost]

Does anyone else like Jarryd Lyons top 20 @ $7? Could have polled in any of Brisbane's wins so far and doesn't have to worry about Lachie Neale stealing any votes for at least the next 5-6 weeks.

 

[jack1231]

Does anyone else like Jarryd Lyons top 20 @ $7? Could have polled in any of Brisbane's wins so far and doesn't have to worry about Lachie Neale stealing any votes for at least the next 5-6 weeks.

Yea, kinda.
mcluggage seems to underpoll, looking at last years results. Could make same argument for Lyons as we have for mcluggage, with neale out.
Mcluggage seems to be going a bit better tho. Lions will win a lot- neale still out for a while so yea definitely could. 16 votes to make top 20 though. 1/3 of season over.

 

[jack1231]

Small 1% play.

Injury: Zak Jones out for 8 weeks. Steeles only true threat IMO to st kilda most votes.

Steele most saints votes =
$1.36 sbet
$1.30 b365
$1.20 TAB

Just hit sbet market pretty hard.

 

[jack1231]

Small 1% play.

Injury: Zak Jones out for 8 weeks. Steeles only true threat IMO to st kilda most votes.

Steele most saints votes =
$1.36 sbet
$1.30 b365
$1.20 TAB

Just hit sbet market pretty hard.

Market removed 7 minutes after posting this. Coincidence or the snitch still lurks