AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

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NYRB said:
Want to put a good word out to Before You Bet. They have the balls to make predictions for 3 vote weighted matches.

Their success rate at predicting the leader outright with weighted 3.0 vote matches in :

2019: 115/159= 72.33%
2020: 78/127=61.42 %

Combined record for last 2 years: 67.48%.

In predicting with a clear outright favourite with the 3.0 weighted vote , 241 of those 286 go on to poll a 2 or 3 Votes on Brownlow Night. (84.23%)

Percentages might be a tad low for the 3.0 vote outright predictions but they are double the sample of say Betfair predictor.
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Hi NYRB, who’s your top 5 and what are they on?

I just finished reviewing (with tweaks) my top 5, which are

1. Oliver - 34
2. Bontempelli - 30
3. Wines - 29
4. Steele - 29
5. Walsh & Petracca - 28
 
Before You Bet have an 84.23% strike rate of predicting outright weighted 3.0 leaders to land 3 or 2 votes on brownlow night.


The game Rd 13 Freo v Gold Coast Suns, Aish is favoured to get the 3 votes according to them. Aish is a relative unknown and to be honest i didnt notice him that much in play.

I think a lot of people may have Touk Miller as their 3 here or even Mundy who i thought played the more 'flashy ' game. This result probably affects Touk Miller Under/Over bets more than anything.
 
Prochard123 said:
Hi NYRB, who’s your top 5 and what are they on?

I just finished reviewing (with tweaks) my top 5, which are

1. Oliver - 34
2. Bontempelli - 30
3. Wines - 29
4. Steele - 29
5. Walsh & Petracca - 28
Click to expand...


My guess is only as good as yours .

My focus has been on the 3 Vote Markets this year. Think there is more value in the long odds i.e Lambert in that Rd 4 game against Port Adelaide.

For me think there is more value in those markets than predicting the outrights or exotics .
 

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AjsGuns said:
Fyfe wasn't far fetched in 2019, I posted I had him in the 30s and that he was the value bet IMO a week or two before the count. I know guys who used to be on the private forum were smashing him @ 9s that year in round 21. The same people have hit Steele when he was @ 9s this year (probably why his $7 now), although not as confident as 2019, but he was the value bet at $9. Every bit a chance as Bont, Wines and Oliver IMO, probably more so than a couple of those 3.
Click to expand...

Long time no see mate 👋
 
NYRB said:
My guess is only as good as yours .

My focus has been on the 3 Vote Markets this year. Think there is more value in the long odds i.e Lambert in that Rd 4 game against Port Adelaide.

For me think there is more value in those markets than predicting the outrights or exotics .
Click to expand...
Which games do you have as value?
 
Admittedly don’t do my own count as I spend most of my time focussing on round by round betting so don’t claim to be an expert, but have done some reading and looked over a bunch of Brownlow counts. Here’s what I’m on for tomorrow night’s count.

Good luck to everyone and I’m amazed by the work some of you guys put in. Looks to be one of the more open counts in recent years.

5u - C.Guthrie, K.Amon, D.Martin most team votes - $1.44 - Ladbrokes
Geelong, Port W/o Boak and Wines, Richmond

3u - Bontempelli, Oliver, Steele, Wines all top 5 multi - $2.33 - TAB

2.5u - De Goey most Collingwood votes - $1.70 - TAB

2.5u - O’Meara most Hawthorn votes (w/o Mitchell) - $1.70 - Ladbrokes

2.5u - Parker most Sydney votes - $1.65 - Ladbrokes

2u - Keays most Adelaide votes (W/o Laird) - $2.13 - TABtouch

1.5u - Oliver leader after round 10 - $2 - Ladbrokes

1.5u - Anderson, J.Kelly most team votes - $2.03 - TAB
Gold Coast (w/o Miller), GWS

1u - Jy Simpkin most North votes - $3.25 - TABtouch

0.5u - Brayshaw most Fremantle votes - $8 - Ladbrokes

0.25u - Mega Team Multi - $527.52 - Ladbrokes
Keays (Adelaide w/o Laird)
De Goey (Collingwood)
Brayshaw (Fremantle)
Guthrie (Geelong)
Anderson (Gold Clast w/o Miller)
Kelly (GWS)
O’Meara (w/o Mitchell)
Oliver (Melbourne)
Simpkin (North Melbourne)
Amon (Port Adelaide w/o Boak and Wines)
Martin (Richmond)
Parker (Sydney)
Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
 
Suncraze said:
Hey guys I need someone to poll exactly 1 vote for the full count. Any ideas?
Click to expand...

Darcy Byrne-Jones

7 votes in 102 H&A games - so not a standout umpire favourite.

Round 16 - Port comfortable win over Hawthorn.
Hawks - leading possession winners were Mitchell 29 disposals, Worpel 23 - not enough. Breust had 2 goals, to go with 8 disposals.
So expect the 3 2 1 to go to Port.

3 to Wines for 43 disposals.
2 to Amon for 26 disposals (17 kicks - 2nd most to Wines), 8 inside 50s (equal most with Wines), most meters gained,

Contenders for the 1
Dixon - 4 goals, 2 in the last when the game was over, no votes.
Boak - 27 disposals

DBJ however to me controlled the back half, racked up the ball and also had 8 intercepts (equal 3rd behind Frost/Hartigan, equal with Aliir).
 

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Ohh Ok said:
Admittedly don’t do my own count as I spend most of my time focussing on round by round betting so don’t claim to be an expert, but have done some reading and looked over a bunch of Brownlow counts. Here’s what I’m on for tomorrow night’s count.

Good luck to everyone and I’m amazed by the work some of you guys put in. Looks to be one of the more open counts in recent years.

5u - C.Guthrie, K.Amon, D.Martin most team votes - $1.44 - Ladbrokes
Geelong, Port W/o Boak and Wines, Richmond

3u - Bontempelli, Oliver, Steele, Wines all top 5 multi - $2.33 - TAB

2.5u - De Goey most Collingwood votes - $1.70 - TAB

2.5u - O’Meara most Hawthorn votes (w/o Mitchell) - $1.70 - Ladbrokes

2.5u - Parker most Sydney votes - $1.65 - Ladbrokes

2u - Keays most Adelaide votes (W/o Laird) - $2.13 - TABtouch

1.5u - Oliver leader after round 10 - $2 - Ladbrokes

1.5u - Anderson, J.Kelly most team votes - $2.03 - TAB
Gold Coast (w/o Miller), GWS

1u - Jy Simpkin most North votes - $3.25 - TABtouch

0.5u - Brayshaw most Fremantle votes - $8 - Ladbrokes

0.25u - Mega Team Multi - $527.52 - Ladbrokes
Keays (Adelaide w/o Laird)
De Goey (Collingwood)
Brayshaw (Fremantle)
Guthrie (Geelong)
Anderson (Gold Clast w/o Miller)
Kelly (GWS)
O’Meara (w/o Mitchell)
Oliver (Melbourne)
Simpkin (North Melbourne)
Amon (Port Adelaide w/o Boak and Wines)
Martin (Richmond)
Parker (Sydney)
Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Click to expand...
Ive decided to tail you at that 13 leg multi with my boost at odds of 572.35. One thin Screen Shot 2021-09-18 at 10.35.57 am.png . Enjoyed your round by round bets this year.....


One thing for sure, i wont be underestimating your tips in the Brownlow either. On my count (which changes by the day and hour)- 10 of those legs I agree out of those 13.
 
G’day guys,

Just wondering what you all have the following couple of players on:

Andrew Brayshaw
Andrew Gaff
Ben Cunnington
Ben Keays
Callum Mills
Cam Guthrie
Christian Petracca
Clayton Oliver
Darcy Parish
David Mundy
Dayne Zorko
Dom Sheed
Dustin Martin
Hugh McCluggage
Isaac Heeney
Jack Macrae
Jack Steele
Jacob Hopper
Jake Stringer
Jarryd Lyons
Joel Selwood
Jordan De Goey
Josh Kelly
Jy Simpkin
Karl Amon
Lance Franklin
Luke Parker
Marcus Bontempelli
Max Gawn
Ollie Wines
Patrick Dangerfield
Rory Laird
Sam Walsh
Taylor Adams
Taylor Walker
Tim Taranto
Toby Greene
Tom Mitchell
Touk Miller
Travis Boak
Zach Merrett

Are they a chance for top 20? Hoping to win some money.

Cheers.
 
Don’t mind Max King 3 votes vs WCE in Round 19 $2

13 disp, 9 marks (8 contested), 6.1
 
It's tight but I'm going against Libba in the Dogs count.

$2.20 for a guy who has polled 8 total votes since 2014. His best year being 2014 with 14 votes, in a bottom 5 side and probably stood out in the eye test.

As good and as important he is to the 2021 Dogs side, there's far more competition for votes this year and he loses the eye test battle.

Sure, he could go the way of a Priddis type in terms of attracting votes, but you've got the obvious standouts in Bont & Macrae, plus I'd say Smith, Treloar, Bruce are obvious standouts to get some decent votes, while Weightman, Dale & Naughton are also eye-catching in ways.

He's $2.20 without Bont/Macrae

I'd say
3 v North round 16 (although I'm on Weightman for value here - eye catching performance, 4 goals and 2 goal assists, was all over North early and don't think Libba dominated to the point of being unable to ignore him)

Maybe 2 or 1 v Carlton round 8. Bont the 3, Bruce could get the 2 for 5 goals. I've gone Bruce.

1 in round 9 v Port.

I don't have him polling round 3 (3. Bruce 2. Treloar 1. Raffle between Macrae, Daniel, Dunkley but Libba after those 3), 6 (3. Macrae, 2. Treloar, 1. Dunkley), 10 (3. Bont 2. Dale 1. Naughton)

5 total for Libba, 3-6 his range. I could genuinely see 2 for the North game and 1 for the Blues game.

Meanwhile I've got Smith 3 round 1 (clear, standout, unable to ignore), 1 v Adelaide round 20 (possibility of 2 ahead of Dale), clear 2 round 15 v West Coast. 6 for Smith, 6-7 being his range.

Treloar 2 in round 3 & 6 (potential 3 in round 6), 1 in 4, 1 in 9. 6 for Treloar, range being 4-6.

Treloar voting history not bad, Smith 7 last year and only going to get more votes - I personally think he's more Dylan Shiel in terms of his bomb it long and hope than Dusty despite the finals goals, but trying to think like the umps.
 
NYRB said:
Ive decided to tail you at that 13 leg multi with my boost at odds of 572.35. One thinView attachment 1238891. Enjoyed your round by round bets this year.....


One thing for sure, i wont be underestimating your tips in the Brownlow either. On my count (which changes by the day and hour)- 10 of those legs I agree out of those 13.
Click to expand...
Glad you see somewhat eye to eye with me!

which ones do you disagree with?
 
Looking at the SB 3 vote games, I’ve done 3-2-1 from that

Oliver 36
Steele 32
Wines 31-32
Bont 30-31

Petrecca 27
Walsh 26

Im pretty comfortable taking the top 4 all to finish top 5
 
DT_35 said:
Looking at the SB 3 vote games, I’ve done 3-2-1 from that

Oliver 36
Steele 32
Wines 31-32
Bont 30-31

Petrecca 27
Walsh 26

Im pretty comfortable taking the top 4 all to finish top 5
Click to expand...
the danger with the Sportsbet odds in allocating the best, 2nd best , 3rd best format, is they like to give the contenders , equal 2nd, equal 3rd, or push them higher than usual.


For instance I requested Petracca who was unquoted in one of their matches, and he got pushed into the 3rd line of betting for one of the games.
 
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