List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Sanders]

The facts are also many draft number 1 player if drafted 10 years later in the same draft woukd not be number 1

Of these number 1 picks, very few if any have played in premierships so I am one that supports prioritising wins and what that brings to a young group over moving up 2 spots in the draft

Ill take the wins and pick 3, or 4 over losses and pick 1, or 2 every day of the week



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Yeah, let’s keep on doing the same old things that have served us so well

Make the 8, anything can happen!

 

[UcantCme]

Yeah, let’s keep on doing the same old things that have served us so well

Make the 8, anything can happen!

What same old thing?

We have won one game in 10 weeks

Your comment makes zero sense

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[CROW in BALI]

What sad miserable lives you must live. That goes for Wetcrow as well.

The 3 of you want dummies for your meltdowns? Maybe some tampons? Drama queens

Dude , as a foundation member of this club all I want is multiple, ongoing premierships. A coach can only coach to win, players can only play to win, and that’s the way it should be . But as a supporter looking at the bigger picture that was a result we did not need . you know , young ram, old ram , flock of sheep type stuff

 

[skittlebrew]

You’ll take Roberts now I think and be very happy.

You take Roberts and be very happy.

We'll take Horne thanks.

 

[thebirdman 24]

Why wouldn't Hawks take Roberts?

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[UcantCme]

Yeah, let’s keep on doing the same old things that have served us so well

Make the 8, anything can happen!

Facts are clubs don't tank, or play for draft picks.... it just doesn't happen

If round 23 scenario was loser takes the spoon ill guarantee both us and North will be going hard to win the game

So pedalling out doing the same thing, we are doing what all clubs do, trying to win and develop the same time

NO clubs, NO clubs play for picks.... its just not what happens

We will finish where we will finish, North, Hawthorn and Collingwood will all have the same philosophy and commitment

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[Jeffcrowe]

Would it be worth using one of our second or third rounders to get Stephens from Sydney. He's in and out of that side like a yoyo. Or is he not worth it with the quality of mids in the draft this year

Not a huge fan

 

[GreyCrow]

Number 1 draft picks back to 2005
Tom Boyd the only flag winner ( and near Norm Smith performance)

But what you do see are multiple B&F winners and AA squad/sides

Ignore Rising Star as that seems to be an award given before the season and adjusted for injuries etc

Boyd and McCartin retired due to outside issues - rather than talent and Watts struggled with the pressure , escaped to SA and loved swimming and **** ie football stopped being his focus

2005	Priority	Carlton	Marc Murphy	296	196	114	AA: 2011; AFLCA: 2011; B&F: 2011, 2017; AFLPA 1st: 2006; AA40: 2009
2006		Carlton	Bryce Gibbs	268 (231)	152	89	B&F: 2014; AA40: 2014
2007	Priority	Carlton	Matthew Kreuzer	189	94	27	AA40: 2017
2008		Melbourne	Jack Watts	174 (153)	161	15
2009	Priority	Melbourne	Tom Scully	187 (31)	89	23	AA40: 2016, 2017
2010		Gold Coast	David Swallow	169	78	20	B&F: 2014
2011		GWS	Jonathon Patton	95 (89)	133	11
2012		GWS	Lachie Whitfield	160	64	43	AA: 2018; B&F: 2018, 2020
2013		GWS	Tom Boyd	61 (9)	50	0	Prem: 2016
2014		St Kilda	Paddy McCartin	35	34	0
2015		Carlton	Jacob Weitering	109	10	2	B&F: 2020; AA40: 2020
2016		Essendon	Andrew McGrath	90	17	7	Rising Star: 2017; AFLPA 1st: 2017
2017		Brisbane	Cam Rayner	63	57	5
2018		Carlton	Sam Walsh	55	22	14	Rising Star: 2019; AFLCA Young: 2020; AFLPA 1st: 2019
2019		Gold Coast	Matt Rowell	11	7	9
2020		Western Bulldogs	Jamarra Ugle-Hagan	1	0	0

tl;dr number 1 doesnt guarantee success but the player you pick is a good player in good systems

 

[skittlebrew]

Would it be worth using one of our second or third rounders to get Stephens from Sydney. He's in and out of that side like a yoyo. Or is he not worth it with the quality of mids in the draft this year

They used pick 5 in the draft on Stephens 5 minutes ago, they're not going to accept any trade that doesn't at least involve a first-rounder.

 

[Gtowncrow]

We’re probably sitting in the <10% chance of finishing with the spoon now. So yeah, not a great feeling when you’re not sure winning is the best outcome.

With Kangas coming home strong, Collingwood struggling and playing the Hawks in the run home, the interesting one is do Collingwood finish with the spoon and thus GWS with the #1 pick? Giving them pick 1 and ~pick 7, plus possibly pick ~8 if Kelly leaves. Now GWS haven’t been big on SA players in the past and also probably aren’t desperate for more midfielders, could a reasonable trade be worked? Even if they lose Kelly, they still have a midfield boasting Taranto, Coniglio, Green, Hopper, Whitfield and then some including another 3 midfielders in the top 20 of last years draft.

Would they look at a trade of pick 1 + pick 7/8 for our pick 3-5 and our 2022 1st rounder, with us potentially providing a solid sweetener in potentially an end of 1st from Crouch or our early 2nd rounder? Probably not, but an interesting scenario.

Player swap? ROB with Kelly...
They have Mumford who is just about done and then Flynn who looks okay. ROB'S contract with us adds leverage and Kelly would be a very good pickup for us.

 

[GreyCrow]

Pick 2 - 2 Premier (Cotchinx3, Thomas x1) , 1 Brownlow (Cotchin*) ABAB

Pick 3 - 3 Premier ( Ellis , Masten, Martinx3) Brownlow (Martin)

Pick 4 - 2 Premier ( Kennedy swapped by Carlton to Eagles , Bontempelli)

But pick 3 and 4 also have a lot of misses

What does it mean?

Premiership players come from any position but multiple top picks help

Eagles - Masten, Kennedy
Richmond , Cotchin , Martin
Bulldogs - Bontempelli , Boyd

And Hawthorn in the previous period built their 4 flags on MULTIPLE top picks

 

[FNeighbourhoodSpiderman]

Like others have said, although Horne would be nice as the top ranked SA prospect, there are some seriously good prospects outside what all the media outlets are saying is the top tier of Daicos, Darcy, Horne right now

It's obviously a long way out still and the season has to finish, but I really like the look of Goater at the moment (as others have mentioned). He has the athletic profile and size of a Bontempelli or Fyfe (I saw a player card of his earlier this week and he said he models his game on the Bont), and the versatility/utility of a Goddard from what I've seen of him. Could be anything depending on how he keeps developing.

Callaghan, Hobbs, Taylor, Roberts, Johnson (tall mid from WA) all offer some high end talent in different ways

I think a few people are sleeping on Zac Taylor at the moment (Goater's teammate at Calder). He's more of an outside small/mid size mid right now (although he can play inside and certainly develop that side of his game), but he's incredibly skillful, has a tonne of footy smarts, can kick a goal and finish, and has that composure and elusiveness - reminds me of Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

25

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

in several ways. Played very solidly in the Metro vs Country game recently, and is the sort of player the Crows could do with more of to add balance to what we already have

There's at the very least 6 deep at the moment in the open draft that I'd be pretty happy with bringing aboard with a first pick, with a handful of others who have shown high end potential at various stages throughout the season, that could very likely force their way up into that top bracket/s (guys like Sonsie, Sinn, Rachele, and others ... assuming they aren't already there)

In terms of Horne, I think it's a bit underrated that he's playing in the SANFL week in, week out. If he was playing U18's every week, or playing against boys, what sort of stats would he be putting up? His style of game reminds me of Trent Cotchin

9

Trent Cotchin

Age

36

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

5.2

5star

D

19.0

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.5

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

4.3

5star

CL

3.5

4star

D

16.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.0

3star

in several ways (does all the defensive and team first things, without trying to make the highlights reel every game), except he has more quickness/agility than Cotchin, and obviously has that ability to leap and take grabs up forward. He's definitely a class act and a 'winner' with the way he plays. From what I've read and heard - majority of the clubs' recruiters rate him incredibly highly too, so I don't think the hype he gets is unwarranted. Having said that, Daicos looks like a freak - he's my personal number 1 at the moment.

I do think guys like Roberts and Hobbs are not that far behind Horne though in terms of what they can offer purely based on production

Note that these are very rough thoughts - nothing solid

Still plenty to play out

In summary - I don't think it's the end of the world if we don't end up with the number 1 or 2 open draft pick. Looks to be shaping to have some nice depth at the top end regardless

 

[Crow till I die]

I think Horne will go top 5. Should be a good player but his kicking isn't elite. I think he has been overrated by a few as a lay down messair pick 1. I'm not sure the crows would pick him at their pick if available. Junior footy form shouldn't be overvalued.

I think a bit different, horne looks to be a super talent but i am thinking he wont be the only one in that upper end of mids this year. Providing we have a top 4 pick i think we will end up with a very good mid.

Reading draft scribes talking about others like roberts, callaghan, hobbs, goater etc any of these kids are going to bring something really good to the team they get pick for and we most certainly will have one of them

 

[Crow till I die]

Who is he ‘beneath’?

ESPN’s (Knightmare’s) power rankings has him the best player after Horne/Daicos/Darcy, so in that view there is literally no Vic player on the open market rated ahead of him.

Well hopefully some form of championships take place and then it should come out in the wash which lads are primed to go high

 

[Jeffcrowe]

They used pick 5 in the draft on Stephens 5 minutes ago, they're not going to accept any trade that doesn't at least involve a first-rounder.

Good , he’s not worth it . Poor selection at that pick and glad we didn’t take him

 

[Crow till I die]

They used pick 5 in the draft on Stephens 5 minutes ago, they're not going to accept any trade that doesn't at least involve a first-rounder.

He is OOC and we may very well have a top 3 pick in the PSD. We' d have plenty of leverage if we wanted him to offer a late 2nd if stephens wants to come to our club

 

[Crows 2024 Premiers]

I don't think that many take young Chris Doerre's predictions that seriously anymore. He doesn't watch an enormous number of games and doesn't have any access to other expert and industry opinions.

He's a guy with a webpage who watches some games.

I'd lean more into Draft Central rankings - because they have a bigger team of analysts - or Twomey because he speaks to recruiters.

This.
Just because a random Bigfooty poster thinks that Roberts is great doesn't mean his rankings are gospel. Twomey is the ONLY resource that has inside information from recruiters from all teams and he had Roberts at #9 in his last ranking, behind Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Rachele and Sinn. This shows that the recruiters don't rate Roberts as high as everyone on this board.

For me, Roberts is a low ceiling prospect who I would be disappointed if we took with a pick like Pick 3/4. He's slow (proof below), has low agility and low endurance and beating up on 16/17 year old kids in the SANFL U18. Have any of you actually watched SANFL U18 recently? It's a shocking standard this year.

I know we wouldn't be drafting a player based purely off his athletic attributes but for a midfield where we all complain about being one paced with Crouch, Sloane, Keays, Laird, what would be the point of selecting a same same player - a competitive accumulator?

And for those who don't think that Roberts is unathletic, he ran a 3.19s 20m sprint at the testing earlier this year, last year ran a 7:30 2km time trial (didn't run this year) and an 8.70s agility. So I asked someone I know to check the times for Adelaide players in their draft year to put it into perspective:

• Fischer McAsey - 3.17s 20m, 8.68s agility, 7:16 2km time trial year before draft
• Jackson Hately - 3.05s 20m, 8.22s agility, 6:24 2km time trial
• Jordon Butts - 3.10s 20m, 8.34s agility, 6:45 2km time trial
• Reilly O'Brien - 3.11s 20m, 8.96s agility
• Riley Thilthorpe - 3.15s 20m, 8.68s agility, 6:51 2km time trial
• Ronin O'Connor - 2.99s 20m, 8.53s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Matt Crouch - 3.25s 20m, 8.00s agility
• Andrew McPherson - 3.05s 20m, 8.59s agility
• Ben Keays - 3.18s 20m, 8.58s agility
• James Borlase - 3.27s 20m, 8.43s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Josh Worrell - 3.11s 20m, 8.29s agility, 6:54 2km time trial year before draft
• Lachlan Gollant - 3.15s 20m, 8.48s agility
• Tom Lynch - 3.03s 20m, 8.52s agility
• Tom Doedee - 3.02s 20m, 8.19s agility

 

[GreyCrow]

number 44

number 21

60m goal in that 2nd vid

 

[40porpoise]

I like the sounds of Callaghan but can’t find any footage.

Sounds like he has a bit of Bontempelli and Pendlebury about him. Exactly the type of player we need in our midfield. Would complement the more burst style players of Schoenberg and Keays

 

[Murray2503]

They used pick 5 in the draft on Stephens 5 minutes ago, they're not going to accept any trade that doesn't at least involve a first-rounder.

We took mcasey at pick 6 from memory. Right now we would be lucky to get a top 50 pick. I wouldn't trade in any player not playing regularly at another club unless that club is a top 4 club. Even then you are taking a risk. We don't need another Hately scenario. We should be targetting players such as Hopper, Brennan Cox, Jordan Dawson. Players that have proven themself at Afl level who are ready to take their game to the next level. We have half a squad of list cloggers so we don't need anymore. Quality is what we need.

I've been on record as saying we should offer up next year's first to GWS for Hopper. He is the exact kind of experience we need in the midfield and has class. We definitely have the cap space and he has a link with Nick's from when he was coaching there. With Sloane falling off a cliff and Crouch likely on his way out we need help for Laird and Schoenberg. Keays has been a great pickup but he's limited long term. Just doesn't have the skills and has no right leg. We need a midfield that is 6 or 7 deep to progress. Laird, Schoenberg, Hopper, Berry, Pedlar, Pick 3? this year would be a decent midfield. Doedee looks to me like he could transfer to midfield as that tall mid which could add to our depth. Laird also has only 2 or 3 years left in the midfield before finishing his career down back imo so the Hopper trade makes a lot of sense.

 

[morris086]

This.
Just because a random Bigfooty poster thinks that Roberts is great doesn't mean his rankings are gospel. Twomey is the ONLY resource that has inside information from recruiters from all teams and he had Roberts at #9 in his last ranking, behind Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Rachele and Sinn. This shows that the recruiters don't rate Roberts as high as everyone on this board.

For me, Roberts is a low ceiling prospect who I would be disappointed if we took with a pick like Pick 3/4. He's slow (proof below), has low agility and low endurance and beating up on 16/17 year old kids in the SANFL U18. Have any of you actually watched SANFL U18 recently? It's a shocking standard this year.

I know we wouldn't be drafting a player based purely off his athletic attributes but for a midfield where we all complain about being one paced with Crouch, Sloane, Keays, Laird, what would be the point of selecting a same same player - a competitive accumulator?

And for those who don't think that Roberts is unathletic, he ran a 3.19s 20m sprint at the testing earlier this year, last year ran a 7:30 2km time trial (didn't run this year) and an 8.70s agility. So I asked someone I know to check the times for Adelaide players in their draft year to put it into perspective:

• Fischer McAsey - 3.17s 20m, 8.68s agility, 7:16 2km time trial year before draft
• Jackson Hately - 3.05s 20m, 8.22s agility, 6:24 2km time trial
• Jordon Butts - 3.10s 20m, 8.34s agility, 6:45 2km time trial
• Reilly O'Brien - 3.11s 20m, 8.96s agility
• Riley Thilthorpe - 3.15s 20m, 8.68s agility, 6:51 2km time trial
• Ronin O'Connor - 2.99s 20m, 8.53s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Matt Crouch - 3.25s 20m, 8.00s agility
• Andrew McPherson - 3.05s 20m, 8.59s agility
• Ben Keays - 3.18s 20m, 8.58s agility
• James Borlase - 3.27s 20m, 8.43s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Josh Worrell - 3.11s 20m, 8.29s agility, 6:54 2km time trial year before draft
• Lachlan Gollant - 3.15s 20m, 8.48s agility
• Tom Lynch - 3.03s 20m, 8.52s agility
• Tom Doedee - 3.02s 20m, 8.19s agility

Have you got a source for Roberts time? I can't find anything.

 

[WheresGroomgone]

Facts are clubs don't tank, or play for draft picks.... it just doesn't happen

If round 23 scenario was loser takes the spoon ill guarantee both us and North will be going hard to win the game

So pedalling out doing the same thing, we are doing what all clubs do, trying to win and develop the same time

NO clubs, NO clubs play for picks.... its just not what happens

We will finish where we will finish, North, Hawthorn and Collingwood will all have the same philosophy and commitment

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Um you do remember our assistant coach Dean Bailey???

 

[WeeBlake]

This.
Just because a random Bigfooty poster thinks that Roberts is great doesn't mean his rankings are gospel. Twomey is the ONLY resource that has inside information from recruiters from all teams and he had Roberts at #9 in his last ranking, behind Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Rachele and Sinn. This shows that the recruiters don't rate Roberts as high as everyone on this board.

For me, Roberts is a low ceiling prospect who I would be disappointed if we took with a pick like Pick 3/4. He's slow (proof below), has low agility and low endurance and beating up on 16/17 year old kids in the SANFL U18. Have any of you actually watched SANFL U18 recently? It's a shocking standard this year.

I know we wouldn't be drafting a player based purely off his athletic attributes but for a midfield where we all complain about being one paced with Crouch, Sloane, Keays, Laird, what would be the point of selecting a same same player - a competitive accumulator?

And for those who don't think that Roberts is unathletic, he ran a 3.19s 20m sprint at the testing earlier this year, last year ran a 7:30 2km time trial (didn't run this year) and an 8.70s agility. So I asked someone I know to check the times for Adelaide players in their draft year to put it into perspective:

• Fischer McAsey - 3.17s 20m, 8.68s agility, 7:16 2km time trial year before draft
• Jackson Hately - 3.05s 20m, 8.22s agility, 6:24 2km time trial
• Jordon Butts - 3.10s 20m, 8.34s agility, 6:45 2km time trial
• Reilly O'Brien - 3.11s 20m, 8.96s agility
• Riley Thilthorpe - 3.15s 20m, 8.68s agility, 6:51 2km time trial
• Ronin O'Connor - 2.99s 20m, 8.53s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Matt Crouch - 3.25s 20m, 8.00s agility
• Andrew McPherson - 3.05s 20m, 8.59s agility
• Ben Keays - 3.18s 20m, 8.58s agility
• James Borlase - 3.27s 20m, 8.43s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Josh Worrell - 3.11s 20m, 8.29s agility, 6:54 2km time trial year before draft
• Lachlan Gollant - 3.15s 20m, 8.48s agility
• Tom Lynch - 3.03s 20m, 8.52s agility
• Tom Doedee - 3.02s 20m, 8.19s agility

I am no draft expert, but slow ruck/Kpp level speed and agility, for a mid, is something to think about

 

[skittlebrew]

Pies and Dogs well short of points required to pick up their f/s / academy players in the draft.

Who/what are they giving up to get them and can we get a slice of the action?

 

[DaKids]

This.
Just because a random Bigfooty poster thinks that Roberts is great doesn't mean his rankings are gospel. Twomey is the ONLY resource that has inside information from recruiters from all teams and he had Roberts at #9 in his last ranking, behind Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Rachele and Sinn. This shows that the recruiters don't rate Roberts as high as everyone on this board.

For me, Roberts is a low ceiling prospect who I would be disappointed if we took with a pick like Pick 3/4. He's slow (proof below), has low agility and low endurance and beating up on 16/17 year old kids in the SANFL U18. Have any of you actually watched SANFL U18 recently? It's a shocking standard this year.

I know we wouldn't be drafting a player based purely off his athletic attributes but for a midfield where we all complain about being one paced with Crouch, Sloane, Keays, Laird, what would be the point of selecting a same same player - a competitive accumulator?

And for those who don't think that Roberts is unathletic, he ran a 3.19s 20m sprint at the testing earlier this year, last year ran a 7:30 2km time trial (didn't run this year) and an 8.70s agility. So I asked someone I know to check the times for Adelaide players in their draft year to put it into perspective:

• Fischer McAsey - 3.17s 20m, 8.68s agility, 7:16 2km time trial year before draft
• Jackson Hately - 3.05s 20m, 8.22s agility, 6:24 2km time trial
• Jordon Butts - 3.10s 20m, 8.34s agility, 6:45 2km time trial
• Reilly O'Brien - 3.11s 20m, 8.96s agility
• Riley Thilthorpe - 3.15s 20m, 8.68s agility, 6:51 2km time trial
• Ronin O'Connor - 2.99s 20m, 8.53s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Matt Crouch - 3.25s 20m, 8.00s agility
• Andrew McPherson - 3.05s 20m, 8.59s agility
• Ben Keays - 3.18s 20m, 8.58s agility
• James Borlase - 3.27s 20m, 8.43s agility, 6:41 2km time trial
• Josh Worrell - 3.11s 20m, 8.29s agility, 6:54 2km time trial year before draft
• Lachlan Gollant - 3.15s 20m, 8.48s agility
• Tom Lynch - 3.03s 20m, 8.52s agility
• Tom Doedee - 3.02s 20m, 8.19s agility

I’m a well written up fan of Matt. So I’ll put that out there first.

Have you actually seen him play live? Have you seen his highlights from league football?

Looking at the Twomey rankings - take 2 out who won’t be available and you might as well take Gibcus out unless you think the Crows need another key defender. So if we’re actually talking about available midfielders, Roberts is 6 and Crows current pick is 4.

I’d be interested to know where you got those testing figures from - can’t see them anywhere. But your comparing his bottom age times with other top age times?

I’ll also be interested to see the results front the “hit him on the tit from 40 metres with a dart” test results too. Reckon Matt would go ok in that one.