List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[ModernArtillery]

DaKids Mutineer Thunderstruck ModernArtillery
Have any of you seen much of Harvey Harrison from North Adelaide? Haven't seen any SANFL U18 games this year, but from reading the AFL Draft Central reports, he seems like a decent player. Is he a draftable prospect?

My best guess, and this is only a guess, is that he would likely be in that late draft/rookie draft/undrafted group. As Mutineer mentioned I think he definitely fits after Jackson and Willis who I both have inside my top 30, though that top 30 rating is probably uncommon.

Harrison's first month or so of footy this year was really high level, however he's probably tapered off a touch the last 3-4 weeks. He has some really impressive tools but probably lacks a real identifiable AFL standard weapon. At U18 level he's proven his ability at stoppage where he consistently wins the footy and is able to exit with pace. He's a good user of the footy but probably at his best when he's kicking to a target sub-35m away. His pace doesn't lower his efficiency as he can still consistently hit targets at top speed. Where he can let himself down occasionally is with his decision-making under pressure as he sometimes struggles to work his way out of pressure situations. However when given time and space you're confident he'll get value for his possessions. He's certainly at his best when he can win the footy and explode out in a straight line. He's comfortable tackling when it's his turn to go and he'll certainly crack in on the inside but his size and frame probably lend itself to being slightly outside leaning at the next level, at least in the short term.

Harrison is one that I think will take some time to adjust to the speed and physicality of AFL level in the short term so I think if he does find his way onto a list it will have to be with a team who's willing to give him the 3+ years to find his feet. Should he be given that I think the tools he has will give him every chance to be an impactful midfielder or even a wing/half back at AFL level.

 

[DaKids]

My best guess, and this is only a guess, is that he would likely be in that late draft/rookie draft/undrafted group. As Mutineer mentioned I think he definitely fits after Jackson and Willis who I both have inside my top 30, though that top 30 rating is probably uncommon.

Harrison's first month or so of footy this year was really high level, however he's probably tapered off a touch the last 3-4 weeks. He has some really impressive tools but probably lacks a real identifiable AFL standard weapon. At U18 level he's proven his ability at stoppage where he consistently wins the footy and is able to exit with pace. He's a good user of the footy but probably at his best when he's kicking to a target sub-35m away. His pace doesn't lower his efficiency as he can still consistently hit targets at top speed. Where he can let himself down occasionally is with his decision-making under pressure as he sometimes struggles to work his way out of pressure situations. However when given time and space you're confident he'll get value for his possessions. He's certainly at his best when he can win the footy and explode out in a straight line. He's comfortable tackling when it's his turn to go and he'll certainly crack in on the inside but his size and frame probably lend itself to being slightly outside leaning at the next level, at least in the short term.

Harrison is one that I think will take some time to adjust to the speed and physicality of AFL level in the short term so I think if he does find his way onto a list it will have to be with a team who's willing to give him the 3+ years to find his feet. Should he be given that I think the tools he has will give him every chance to be an impactful midfielder or even a wing/half back at AFL level.

Brilliant write up thank you very much.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Do some players excel during this period of the year when the weather is worse, grounds are heavier etc?

Maybe games are a bit slower, more stoppages, suits certain types of players more than others.

Whereas grounds at AFL level stay in good nick all year round so skills in these conditions are less transferable and perhaps less indicative of future AFL performance

 

[Deaneus!]

and he doesnt know the difference between might and will. maybe he should of stayed in school.

MOD NOTE: maybe we can all dial it back with the insults please, we’d rather not hand out bans

Also, it’s should *have* stayed in school

 

[DaKids]

Do some players excel during this period of the year when the weather is worse, grounds are heavier etc?

Maybe games are a bit slower, more stoppages, suits certain types of players more than others.

Whereas grounds at AFL level stay in good nick all year round so skills in these conditions are less transferable and perhaps less indicative of future AFL performance

Interesting. I can probably comment from the 1st 18 competition point of view. I’d argue that many of the Ovals used in this comp are of a standard above SANFL. The reason for this is 2 fold. 1. Those schools spend tens of thousands of $$$ on grounds so the boys playing in that comp are ok - immaculate surfaces.

2. and I think the most worrying, SANFL grounds are struggling. $$$ are less, but most worryingly ground use is out of control. Boys U13, U14, U15, U16, U18, reserves and league. Then we have girls U14, U16, reserves and league. That’s a hell of a lot of use and ovals are getting chopped up.

I understand the Eagles have developed Wingfield footy club to be used for girls and a lot of junior boys - get them off of Woodville. It’s a worry in itself that juniors are being funneled away from good grounds to suburban grounds. I know for a fact other SANFL clubs are looking at solutions too.

What I am saying in answering you is I don’t think it’s been an issue - but I think it might be going forward.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think a bit different, horne looks to be a super talent but i am thinking he wont be the only one in that upper end of mids this year. Providing we have a top 4 pick i think we will end up with a very good mid.

Reading draft scribes talking about others like roberts, callaghan, hobbs, goater etc any of these kids are going to bring something really good to the team they get pick for and we most certainly will have one of them

Both Brad Crouch and Hogan were viewed as generational players when picked as priority 17 yo's ......how good a junior talent is very often doesn't translate to senior footy

Everyone's now ****-a-hoop over Schoenberg .....a 2nd round pick

So lets not get too fussed about Horne .....there'll be plenty of top end talented mids, given the proliferation of mids in this Draft

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I’d say and only as a guess he might think we have enough contested ball types and need a bit more class and height

As long as he proves his contested game adequate it might not need to be much better than average

My view as well Jeff .....we have a host of contested ball winners now, and what we need is speed and elite finishers in the midfield

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Kid: What AFL team do you barrack for?
Arlo: We're a Crows family here ... big Crows family.

Draper: How old are you? What 11, 10?
LJ: I'm 13.
Draper: 13? Jesus, alrighty, okay.

 

[cleanhands]

Both Brad Crouch and Hogan were viewed as generational players when picked as priority 17 yo's ......how good a junior talent is very often doesn't translate to senior footy

Everyone's now ****-a-hoop over Schoenberg .....a 2nd round pick

So lets not get too fussed about Horne .....there'll be plenty of top end talented mids, given the proliferation of mids in this Draft

Some juniors get there on natural talent, some through work rate, the later continue to work hard to get to their limits, where as the natural athletes can find it difficult to be challenged once they take the next step in competition,whilst agree you still take the # 1 doesn’t always turn out to be the right decision

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Some juniors get there on natural talent, some through work rate, the later continue to work hard to get to their limits, where as the natural athletes can find it difficult to be challenged once they take the next step in competition,whilst agree you still take the # 1 doesn’t always turn out to be the right decision

This is so so true !

 

[GrommoT]

Draper: How old are you? What 11, 10?
LJ: I'm 13.
Draper: 13? Jesus, alrighty, okay.

I wonder what Mark Blicavs thought

 

[Sanders]

Both Brad Crouch and Hogan were viewed as generational players when picked as priority 17 yo's ......how good a junior talent is very often doesn't translate to senior footy

Everyone's now ****-a-hoop over Schoenberg .....a 2nd round pick

So lets not get too fussed about Horne .....there'll be plenty of top end talented mids, given the proliferation of mids in this Draft

Our record doesn’t suggest we’ll be one of the teams finding those hidden gems

 

[Golumless]

My view as well Jeff .....we have a host of contested ball winners now, and what we need is speed and elite finishers in the midfield

We still need more. Pedlar, Berry and Schoenberg is the start of a very solid midfield unit, but our first round pick has to be another contested ball winner at this point in time. Ideally with speed, or good disposal.

I doubt its a good idea to have Laird, or Keays being a midfield first player in 3-4 years.

 

[70lethal]

5 of the past 10 Larke Medalists have been from W.A.
The Vic winners go 1 or 2 in the draft.
The W.A. boys have continued to slide from 2, 2, 11, 21, 22
The S.A. guy 53.

 

[Deaneus!]

Our record doesn’t suggest we’ll be one of the teams finding those hidden gems

hey - we found Brad Crouch!

 

[huludicidal]

I thought he retired in 2018. I don't think I've seen him play for 2 years.

He was in the top few in Norm Smith voting in 2019. Injury-plagued since.

 

[jackster83]

hey - we found Brad Crouch!

So did SAPOL but you don't hear them bragging.

 

[Sanders]

So did SAPOL but you don't hear them bragging.

Literally guffawed out loud

 

[FNeighbourhoodSpiderman]

Some more loose thoughts:

- There was some impressive performances in the SA trial match last week. Makes me more confident that even if we don't try to package picks to move up and have two high picks, there's some good SA talent available that will likely make up some depth later in the draft. Gives us more options.

- I suspect Finn Callaghan, especially if he's able to have a few more solid performances to end out the year and show more of a consistent inside game (dealing with an injury at the moment though as a I understand), will get bonus points from several clubs for his family's athletic background. His dad is a former Commonwealth Games runner and has other family athletic links. Geelong is an example of a club that loves to draft prospects with elite family athletic pedigrees.

- There's guys in this thread that have already mentioned Erasmus, and I'm now onboard that train too. Looks to have several weapons/traits that are intriguing as an overall package in the one prospect. Is a prospect that fits our 'needs' too in addition to looking like he has the talent to go with it

- In terms of trades and free agency this year, I'm 99.9% certain SA guys like Lukosius and Rankine are off the table. But, I look at a guy like Luke Dunstan

27

Luke Dunstan

Age

31

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

9.0

5star

CL

2.0

4star

D

18.2

5star

K

6.0

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

6.2

5star

CL

4.2

5star

(who is 26) and his form at the Saints this year, and see Hately (even though he's 20 and still has plenty of time to develop, he isn't getting a game) and M Crouch (who we want to keep around on a 2 or 3 year deal if he accepts) as similar speed players. We have other guys coming through like Pedlar that we need to get games into next season, but Sloaney is getting towards the end too. Not saying we go after Dunstan, but I wonder if we go after anyone this year. Seems more likely with the rumours that we were after Swans' Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

29

Ht

190cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

(before he essentially said he wants to stay at the Swans) that we are prioritising outside, skilled and linebreaker players, which makes sense. Might target it through through the draft, and wait another year before going after available players from other clubs. If M Crouch wants a longer term deal than what we have allegedly offered him, this especially makes sense if we get a compensation pick for him leaving.

 

[70lethal]

Hard to argue with facts like that

there is draft and then development and it’s clear we’ve failed to draft and develop good midfielders , plain to see

Since 2015 there's been a few interesting trends in the draft for the top performers
WB were already going tall, Bont 194cm, Stringer 191cm, Macrae 188cm. Then they took 21 players in a row with and ave height of 192cm between 2015 and 2017.

Richmond; Speed, x factor, coupled with mature late/rookie picks often from W.A. Miles, Broad, Lambert, Pickett, Baker, and a game plan based on speed

Geelong 1 mature ager cheaply each year in the draft starting with Menegola, Stewart, Kelly, Atkins, Close and pillaged FA at the same time.

Melbourne 2 top 12 picks or no 1sts at all. ex. 2014 Petracca 186cm, Brayshaw 187cm, 2015 Oliver 187cm, Weideman 196cm , 2019 Jackson 199cm, Pickett 171cm and then when they hit the trade period they went for multiple 2nds 2017 Lever then picks 29, 31, 37 Spargo, Fritsch, Petty, 2018 May pick 27 & 33 Sparrow and Jordan and did well.

Brisbane, Fagan arrive 2016 went 3-4 picks in top 25 for 3 years (1st 2 picks McCluggage 186cm, Berry 192cm) and drafted a midfield and smashed the trade period in 2017 & 2018.

Since 2018 we have had a significant change and what looks like a plan, better late than never as they say.

What we haven't done, is followed BRIS, MEL, WB and gone with big mids early as listed above.

Compare theirs to Jones 180cm, McHenry 178cm, Schoenberg 180cm, Pedlar 183cm, Berry 181cm . Not including MCrouch, Sloane, Laird, Murphy, Poholke, Gallucci, Sig, Jarman, etc

Seriously 10-15cm in reach and 10kg + for every guy in the centre square is a huge disadvantage especially if your not winning the taps and hitting to space.
Wasn't long ago we all screaming to put Greenwood in the middle form this exact reason.

Essendon suffer similar issues.

Sadly Kemp and Hollands did their knee otherwise they would have been viable options.

If Hately and O'Connor aren't the ones moving forward then all things being equal Callaghan is perfect but he will be gone before our pick.

I do wonder how Doedee would go and is our group creative enough to even try, we never played Smith there early and how frustrating.

This week will be interesting to watch and all those that continue to disagree that size don't matter in midfield watch the Bont and Macrae at the CB out reaching our guys continuously.

 

[FNeighbourhoodSpiderman]

Since 2015 there's been a few interesting trends in the draft for the top performers
WB were already going tall, Bont 194cm, Stringer 191cm, Macrae 188cm. Then they took 21 players in a row with and ave height of 192cm between 2015 and 2017.

Richmond; Speed, x factor, coupled with mature late/rookie picks often from W.A. Miles, Broad, Lambert, Pickett, Baker, and a game plan based on speed

Geelong 1 mature ager cheaply each year in the draft starting with Menegola, Stewart, Kelly, Atkins, Close and pillaged FA at the same time.

Melbourne 2 top 12 picks or no 1sts at all. ex. 2014 Petracca 186cm, Brayshaw 187cm, 2015 Oliver 187cm, Weideman 196cm , 2019 Jackson 199cm, Pickett 171cm and then when they hit the trade period they went for multiple 2nds 2017 Lever then picks 29, 31, 37 Spargo, Fritsch, Petty, 2018 May pick 27 & 33 Sparrow and Jordan and did well.

Brisbane, Fagan arrive 2016 went 3-4 picks in top 25 for 3 years (1st 2 picks McCluggage 186cm, Berry 192cm) and drafted a midfield and smashed the trade period in 2017 & 2018.

Since 2018 we have had a significant change and what looks like a plan, better late than never as they say.

What we haven't done, is followed BRIS, MEL, WB and gone with big mids early as listed above.

Compare theirs to Jones 180cm, McHenry 178cm, Schoenberg 180cm, Pedlar 183cm, Berry 181cm . Not including MCrouch, Sloane, Laird, Murphy, Poholke, Gallucci, Sig, Jarman, etc

Seriously 10-15cm in reach and 10kg + for every guy in the centre square is a huge disadvantage especially if your not winning the taps and hitting to space.
Wasn't long ago we all screaming to put Greenwood in the middle form this exact reason.

Essendon suffer similar issues.

Sadly Kemp and Hollands did their knee otherwise they would have been viable options.

If Hately and O'Connor aren't the ones moving forward then all things being equal Callaghan is perfect but he will be gone before our pick.

I do wonder how Doedee would go and is our group creative enough to even try, we never played Smith there early and how frustrating.

This week will be interesting to watch and all those that continue to disagree that size don't matter in midfield watch the Bont and Macrae at the CB out reaching our guys continuously.

You make some good points and I agree with some of what you've said

You don't necessarily need huge midfielders though

Look at Brisbane - Berry has been injured this year, and their engine room of Lyon, Neale, Zorko, Mitch Robinson, Deven Robertson, and throw McCluggage and Bailey swapping in there or on wings or half forward - on average they aren't the tallest midfield

If you go through Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane and Melbourne's lists, the one thing they all have in common is list depth, and specifically quantity of A grade talent and stars

The Crows simply don't have those things right now - we simply need more time and opportunity to fill out the list to do so

The Crows can't rely on quantities of SA free agents wanting to come home to top up the list like Victorian destination clubs can - we will have to morso rely on the draft like Brisbane. Even Brisbane though were slightly fortunate that Neale and Daniher wanted to go there for the anonymity (they got Cameron too - but he has family there)

I will say though, although the competition definitely has favoured Vic clubs up until now, and free agents will still want to go to or stay in Victoria in the future, the thing that will change for the Crows (and Port) in the future, is that our father sons are starting to come through now, and South Australia will continue to grow in population (which means hopefully increasingly greater quantities of available SA draft prospects) - so at least there will be some evening up in that regard

Speed, a good game plan, a coaching staff and club system that can develop players and find effective roles for them, and a stable foundation for your club are also critical to club success

You could argue that the Crows need to start 'hitting' more on stars in drafts, and that might be valid.

But, we may already have started doing that in the past few drafts with guys like Thilthorpe and Sholl showing some huge flashes, with others showing signs of being legit starting 22 players and possible more

If we hit in the next few drafts, and get a good free agent or two, we are suddenly moving with an upward arrow reasonably fast

We are in a pretty good position at the moment with our list and Nicks in my opinion.

Nicks in particular seems to be a great relationships person, and knows how to build and keep morale in the group

Where he is night and day with Pike too in my opinion is his open mindedness and creativity in being able to try players in different roles (e.g. Chayce Jones in backline, Laird in midfield, Smith in midfield, even Frampton in backline in SANFL) to find out where they are most effective, and make hard calls like dropping players or getting rid of them (e.g. Brad Crouch)

He also understands the importance of team defence, and can get the team to buy into and execute on doing that on most game days (which is harder than it sounds if you look across the rest of the AFL - just look at how inconsistent Carlton is at that despite having 10x the talent on their list that we have)

With the way we are going, I'm happy to keep giving us time to keep developing things as they have been since Nicks arrived

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I doubt its a good idea to have Laird, or Keays being a midfield first player in 3-4 years.

Why do you say that ? ......I can't see any reason Laird and Keays wouldn't play out their careers as Mids

The question ? are on Gollant and O'Connor ....can they step up next year ....O'Connor made some good first steps this year & followed a typical rookies path by getting a couple of games

I can see Jones moving back into the midfield in a couple of years times, and we also have Milera to add into that midfield

I'm normally in the camp of saying clubs take a player type in drafts ......but I do think this year, we'll take the best Mid available, irrespective of attributes

 

[WaynesWorld19]

hey - we found Brad Crouch!

Now Footy Classified (Cornes) go's on the attack against Brad Crouch last night .....highlighting on video his weak running and tackling efforts last weekend

I've seen Brad have some terrific games this year ....but he also has games where he can't be bothered ...or just drops his bundle far too easily

His type should never be given long Contracts

 

[UcantCme]

I’d say and only as a guess he might think we have enough contested ball types and need a bit more class and height

As long as he proves his contested game adequate it might not need to be much better than average

Tend to agree, however its always nice when you can get a mid that can win his own ball, or spead hard from a stoppage with speed and hit targets up field

The Elite mids can do both

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jirkago75]

Since 2015 there's been a few interesting trends in the draft for the top performers
WB were already going tall, Bont 194cm, Stringer 191cm, Macrae 188cm. Then they took 21 players in a row with and ave height of 192cm between 2015 and 2017.

Richmond; Speed, x factor, coupled with mature late/rookie picks often from W.A. Miles, Broad, Lambert, Pickett, Baker, and a game plan based on speed

Geelong 1 mature ager cheaply each year in the draft starting with Menegola, Stewart, Kelly, Atkins, Close and pillaged FA at the same time.

Melbourne 2 top 12 picks or no 1sts at all. ex. 2014 Petracca 186cm, Brayshaw 187cm, 2015 Oliver 187cm, Weideman 196cm , 2019 Jackson 199cm, Pickett 171cm and then when they hit the trade period they went for multiple 2nds 2017 Lever then picks 29, 31, 37 Spargo, Fritsch, Petty, 2018 May pick 27 & 33 Sparrow and Jordan and did well.

Brisbane, Fagan arrive 2016 went 3-4 picks in top 25 for 3 years (1st 2 picks McCluggage 186cm, Berry 192cm) and drafted a midfield and smashed the trade period in 2017 & 2018.

Since 2018 we have had a significant change and what looks like a plan, better late than never as they say.

What we haven't done, is followed BRIS, MEL, WB and gone with big mids early as listed above.

Compare theirs to Jones 180cm, McHenry 178cm, Schoenberg 180cm, Pedlar 183cm, Berry 181cm . Not including MCrouch, Sloane, Laird, Murphy, Poholke, Gallucci, Sig, Jarman, etc

Seriously 10-15cm in reach and 10kg + for every guy in the centre square is a huge disadvantage especially if your not winning the taps and hitting to space.
Wasn't long ago we all screaming to put Greenwood in the middle form this exact reason.

Essendon suffer similar issues.

Sadly Kemp and Hollands did their knee otherwise they would have been viable options.

If Hately and O'Connor aren't the ones moving forward then all things being equal Callaghan is perfect but he will be gone before our pick.

I do wonder how Doedee would go and is our group creative enough to even try, we never played Smith there early and how frustrating.

This week will be interesting to watch and all those that continue to disagree that size don't matter in midfield watch the Bont and Macrae at the CB out reaching our guys continuously.

Talent matters mate, not height.