List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Vhaluus]

Because it's not about numbers. You are setting his price tag based on picks. The value of those picks changes every year, based on the available talent pool.

You're also losing two years of him being in our system, gelling with the team etc. You're also, of course, risking that he wont want to leave his current club or will want to go to the Power. You're also assuming we will have the cap space, list spots etc.

To be honest, there's more risk in taking #4 to the draft this year then giving it to NM for #1. As for next year, we can cross that bridge when we get to it.

And what about the risk if we take him? What if we give all this trade capital and draft him and then in 2 years time he gets a monster offer from Port or a Victorian club and informs us of his intentions to leave.

No way we'd get nearly what we paid for him if he decides to pack his bags.

His value can ONLY remain equal or go down. It will NOT go up from here.

 

[GROTTO]

Because it's not about numbers. You are setting his price tag based on picks. The value of those picks changes every year, based on the available talent pool.

You're also losing two years of him being in our system, gelling with the team etc. You're also, of course, risking that he wont want to leave his current club or will want to go to the Power. You're also assuming we will have the cap space, list spots etc.

To be honest, there's more risk in taking #4 to the draft this year then giving it to NM for #1. As for next year, we can cross that bridge when we get to it.

If JHF becomes elite, he will leave North, nothing can be surer than that for me.

The bigger issue as you mentioned is getting him now while we can, ahead of Port.

In 2 years time, Port will be in rebuild mode and have cap space to swoop in. Not to mention the trade capital to be enticing for North, ie High draft picks.

 

[GROTTO]

I agree, but I think that's the major sticking point for them. I still think if we remove their 22 second rounder from the deal, it may get done, unless they're not confident Callaghan gets to 4. If that's the case, I can understand them saying no.

Do you think Callaghan gets to 4?

Effectively thats what North's discussion should be.

 

[feenix67]

And what about the risk of we take him? What if we give all this trade capital and draft him and then in 2 years time he gets a monster offer from Port or a Victorian club and informs us of his intentions to leave.

No way we'd get nearly what we paid for him if he decides to pack his bags.

His value can ONLY remain equal or go down. It will NOT go up from here.

Then why take any player?

Here's a hypothetical value proposition for you: had we made Danger an outrageous offer he couldn't refuse in 2015 - say 2 years at 3.0M - and as a result he was the difference in 2017 and we won a flag, was that overpriced deal worth it? Of course.

The value is not in the numbers, the value is in the outcomes.

 

[feenix67]

Do you think Callaghan gets to 4?

Effectively thats what North's discussion should be.

I think it's likely, but far from a certainty and thats probably the problem.

 

[triggyscrewedus]

Definitely not claiming any direct insider knowledge at all. I do know a person quite well that is involved on game days with the club, but they are not ever going to share the inner workings with me and I wouldn't ask them too either. The club is quite professional now with how they manage their information. Just want to make that clear. I really just hear second hand information like many of you do, but if I can ever clarify information for anyone I will do my best to do this.

Don't get sucked into the vortex mate.. play your own game
Welcome aboard.

 

[GROTTO]

Then why take any player?

Here's a hypothetical value proposition for you: had we made Danger an outrageous offer he couldn't refuse in 2015 - say 2 years at 3.0M - and as a result he was the difference in 2017 and we won a flag, was that overpriced deal worth it? Of course.

The value is not in the numbers, the value is in the outcomes.

Its also why we paid massive overs for Gibbs.

If we won a flag in 2018 with Gibbs still being pathetic, we would have justified the deal.

 

[Vhaluus]

Then why take any player?

Here's a hypothetical value proposition for you: had we made Danger an outrageous offer he couldn't refuse in 2015 - say 2 years at 3.0M - and as a result he was the difference in 2017 and we won a flag, was that overpriced deal worth it? Of course.

The value is not in the numbers, the value is in the outcomes.

But you're assuming a best case scenario if we take him and a worst case scenario for what happens if we don't take him and then trying to compare the two... you can't do a comparison on that basis.

You have to evaluate the risks and potential rewards of BOTH sides of a decision.

 

[Vhaluus]

Its also why we paid massive overs for Gibbs.

If we won a flag in 2018 with Gibbs still being pathetic, we would have justified the deal.

A perfect example of a bad decision justified by a magical fairly land best case scenario.

We made the decisions for Gibbs on the dream that he'd be the difference in a premiership and didn't factor in the risk he WOULDN'T win us a premiership into his evaluation.

Our club can't keep with this bullshit Gibbs level thinking.

 

[GROTTO]

But you're assuming a best case scenario if we take him and a worst case scenario for what happens if we don't take him and then trying to compare the two... you can't do a comparison on that basis.

You have to evaluate the risks and potential rewards of BOTH sides of a decision.

The thing in evaluating a trade becomes challenging because a lot scenarios change.

 

[feenix67]

But you're assuming a best case scenario if we take him and a worst case scenario for what happens if we don't take him and then trying to compare the two... you can't do a comparison on that basis.

You have to evaluate the risks and potential rewards of BOTH sides of a decision.

Absolutely. But not on a perceived price based on a pick number.

 

[GROTTO]

A perfect example of a bad decision justified by a magical fairly land best case scenario.

We made the decisions for Gibbs on the dream that he'd be the difference in a premiership and didn't factor in the risk he WOULDN'T win us a premiership into his evaluation.

Our club can't keep with this bullshit Gibbs level thinking.

Who were the players that Carlton got with our picks?

 

[Vhaluus]

Who were the players that Carlton got with our picks?

Doesn't matter. Carlton are shit at drafting, we all know that.

In order to do the comparison we'd have to know who WE would have taken with the picks. Which obviously we can't.

Draft picks are objectively more valuable to us than they are to Carlton because we've proven that we are better at using them.

 

[GROTTO]

Doesn't matter. Carlton are sh*t at drafting, we all know that.

True and that compounds the scenario too.

I remember at the time suggesting Adelaide tell Carlton who they should take with our picks to help them.

 

[feenix67]

A perfect example of a bad decision justified by a magical fairly land best case scenario.

We made the decisions for Gibbs on the dream that he'd be the difference in a premiership and didn't factor in the risk he WOULDN'T win us a premiership into his evaluation.

Our club can't keep with this bullshit Gibbs level thinking.

You win some, you lose some. Ask Gerard Neesham. At the end of the day, if you think a player is a generational talent then you do what needs to be done and trust your evaluation.

 

[Vader]

Pick 4, our 2022 1st and Melbourne's 2022 1st is a huge price. Im not sure we can pay any more than that?

To be honest, North have more to lose here. I comfortable in saying one of these picks will end up being A class.

Even if JHF becomes elite and the best, Im more confident that he wont be at NM 4-5 years from now.

If North's 2022 2nd was coming back, then it becomes a whole lot more palatable. There's not going to be a big gap between the Melbourne 1st and North's 2nd next year, so they pretty much cancel each other out.

That leaves just pick 4 and our 2022 1st. If we finish in the 9-12 range next year, which is not unreasonable, then we would have been effectively giving up a top-5 and a top-10 pick, for #1 - the player who is rated the best SA midfielder since Andrew McLeod.

Effectively we would have been putting 2 eggs in one basket, and yes it looks ugly if we regress in 2022 (noting the comments about non-linear progression). However, our list has long lacked elite talent in the midfield, and the club has clearly identified JHF as being that elite talent.

For those who think our chances are better by rolling 3 dice, think of it this way - we'd still be rolling 2 dice, and 1 of them would be heavily loaded.

 

[Vhaluus]

You win some, you lose some. Ask Gerard Neesham. At the end of the day, if you think a player is a generational talent then you do what needs to be done and trust your evaluation.

ok, so trust your evaluation then.

$50 charity bet. If he wins a Brownlow in his career I'll donate $50 to the charity of your choice, if he doesn't you donate $50 to the charity of my choice.

winning a single brownlow is a LOT lower a benchmark than being a generational talent after all, a generational talent should expect at least a couple.

 

[GROTTO]

If North's 2022 2nd was coming back, then it becomes a whole lot more palatable. There's not going to be a big gap between the Melbourne 1st and North's 2nd next year, so they pretty much cancel each other out.

That leaves just pick 4 and our 2022 1st. If we finish in the 9-12 range next year, which is not unreasonable, then we would have been effectively giving up a top-5 and a top-10 pick, for #1 - the player who is rated the best SA midfielder since Andrew McLeod.

Effectively we would have been putting 2 eggs in one basket, and yes it looks ugly if we regress in 2022 (noting the comments about non-linear progression). However, our list has long lacked elite talent in the midfield, and the club has clearly identified JHF as being that elite talent.

For those who think our chances are better by rolling 3 dice, think of it this way - we'd still be rolling 2 dice, and 1 of them would be heavily loaded.

You dont have to convince me.

Im happy to roll the dice.

North should too as they are getting a gun Vic kid at 4 plus two shots next year in 2022.

JHF will end in tears for them, they are just too deluded to see how this will pan out.

 

[Vader]

Doesn't matter. Carlton are sh*t at drafting, we all know that.

In order to do the comparison we'd have to know who WE would have taken with the picks. Which obviously we can't.

Draft picks are objectively more valuable to us than they are to Carlton because we've proven that we are better at using them.

I don't think they're shite at drafting. I think they're beyond shite at developing the players, once they have them on their list.

** Having said that, they have made some bizarre drafting decisions over the years.

 

[Vhaluus]

I don't think they're sh*te at drafting. I think they're beyond sh*te at developing the players, once they have them on their list.

** Having said that, they have made some bizarre drafting decisions over the years.

Bit of both I suspect. Either way it makes it impossible to compare the Gibbs trade properly by just looking at how the players they took with those picks turned out.

 

[feenix67]

ok, so trust your evaluation then.

$50 charity bet. If he wins a Brownlow in his career I'll donate $50 to the charity of your choice, if he doesn't you donate $50 to the charity of my choice.

winning a single brownlow is a LOT lower a benchmark than being a generational talent after all, a generational talent should expect at least a couple.

Im very happy to take that bet. The last time I went the early call on a Brownlow winner, it was Dangerfield after his debut

 

[GROTTO]

Bit of both I suspect. Either way it makes it impossible to compare the Gibbs trade properly by just looking at how the players they took with those picks turned out.

Had we lost to North in the last game, JHF would be at the Crows. Probably would have needed our 2nd rounder to get it done.

Of course we had to win a game that will screw us for potentially the next 10 years.

 

[GROTTO]

Im very happy to take that bet. The last time I went the early call on a Brownlow winner, it was Dangerfield after his debut

Im not saying thats the case with JHF, but doesnt every year posters cream themselves about a player that ends up in two years time not being the elite talent that they thought he would be.

I remember on here, I was one of them too, that thought Luko and Rankine would take the AFL by storm. Almost all posters on here blew their load over these two players.

 

[Vhaluus]

Im very happy to take that bet. The last time I went the early call on a Brownlow winner, it was Dangerfield after his debut

Done.

 

[GROTTO]

Done.

Glory be, see you guys in 12+ years time lol.